Piceno is the horse of interest and looks strong . But the next 4 in the betting have all won last time out. Can we be assured Piceno will finish in the first 3.
So, is the football stronger today? Well Panathanaikos kick off at home and it is always risky to bet on opening league matches. That said, I feel Pana have the edge over a Xanthi side who are not the best. This would be a special bet if chosen as one a day ( back Pana and back 0-0 with enough money to return your stake on Pana if the game finishes 0-0)
St Patricks look rock solid this evening but the words Irish and Cup together can be dangerous bedfellow for the punter. If the 1/20 quote is right, this should be easy over 2.5 goals for St pats. What puts me off is the fact this is not in running, where the Pana game is.
*****ONE A DAY - 715pm - Panathinaikos v Xanthi - Back Panathanaikos is the match odds market at 1.28 . I would advise an insurance bet on this match. Go to the correct scores market.
Back 0-0 in the following manor.
E.g. I back Panathanaikos at odds of 1.28 for £100 stake.
I go to the correct score market.
I notice the odds are 14 to back 0-0. I back 0-0 with £8. This returns me £99.11 if the game ends 0-0 ( it insures my match odds bet against a 0-0 full time result)******
There is no ruch with bet placement here. There is only £75 available at 14 at present. Wait for the markets to gain liquidity as the day progresses.
I simply cannot go with the 255 Newmarket while we still have ? over ground despite the obvious chance of Piceno. The next 4 in the ebtting all won last time out !! Yes Fallon is red hot at present but these are 2 year olds on only 3rd, 4th, 5th runs EVER.
PSV did what was expected of a 1.17 shot yesterday. And during these early European Cup rounds, we should take advantage of the myriad good opportunities on the same day.
FOOTBALL
645pm - Lugano v Locarno - 1.26 home - again the head to heads leave me wandering why Lugano are so short. 3-2 to Lucarno in March , 2-2 in August 2009, 2-0 to Lugano in April 2009, 3-1 to Locarno ( cup) in October 2008.
You see my confused look?
There is some collateral form through Vaduz - Lugano beat them 3-0 away from home on 16/8/10 and Locarno lost 3-1 at home to Vaduz on 22/8/10 - is this slight slump for Locarno the reason Lugano are so strongly fancied? Only match odds and overs available on Betfair. I suspect there will be goals in this and a neutral bet is best, but the ideal with a league not known to me would be for in running monitoring of bets.
7pm - Cambuur v AGOVV - 1.54 home - 2 from 2 for the home side and a win and a loss for the away side. As you can guess, not enough form just yet to see any patterns emerge. The Juliper League is usually a goals backers' paradise. A pity again that this is just a match odds/overs match on Betfair.
715pm - Panathinaikos v Xanthi - 1.28 home - only lost 4 matches all last season did Pana, and did the double over Xanthi, 1-0 at home and 2-1 away. New season and priced to get off to a flying start. 3 of the 4 losses last year came in the period between 14th February to 21st March, and hopefully this aberration is out of Pana's system. Asian Handicaps are optimistic +1.5 start. IN RUNNING There is always a risk with opening matches of the season ( ask Marseille) but Pana won their first 6 last season and won 9 and drew 1 of their first 10 home matches last season.
I know that looking at last year can be redundant but I have little else to go on to justify the odds.
730pm - Kaiserslautern v B Munich - 1.5 away - good home win for Bayern in first match. I think Robben is out for 2 months or so and he is so good that he will be missed. Good away win for Kaiserslautern at Koln fills them with confidence, and a Robbenless Bayern are far more favourable opposition for them. Kaiserslautern look to be newcomers to the Bundesliga as head to heads go back to 2006. Instantly you would expect Bayern to have the requisite experience to cope with them. That said, this is going to be a full house for Kaiser's at home and a likely tricky away encounter for Bayern. Difficult to call but I would logically side with Bayern ( IN RUNNING so back them and hope they lead at some stage)
730pm - Port Talbot v Carmarthen Town - 1.34 home - 2 home losses for Carmarthen so far ( 3-2 and 4-1) means that they should be vulnerable away from home?) Head to heads interesting ( C = Carmarthen win and H=home and A = Away)
1-0 (CA) , 3-1 (CH) , 1-1, 0-1 , 0-0,0-0
Another conundrum presented by the head to heads. The odds for Port Talbot I suspect are the result of Carmarthen's poor home form
745pm - Galway Utd v Salthill Devon - 1.18 home - Irish Cup match this one and illiquid markets on betfair. As is typical of Irish football, head to head in 2009 was 2-2 which hardly compels us to back Galway with confidence at 1.18 although I suspect there is a gulf in class ( although class and Irish football do not really go together) Dubious home form for Galway makes this more of a lay bet to nothing ( low liability) than a back
745pm - St Patricks v Belgrove - 1.09 home - Irish Cup again and St Pats have enjoyed some European action of late. Sub 1.10 usually equals goals and over 2.5 goals at 1.47 ( very illiquid market on Betfair) is enticing, St pats have won 7 and drawn 2 of their 9 home matches this season. Contrast that form with Galway United and we can have relatively greater confidence.Belgrove are a Dublin based club and by the look of it very amateur , so a strong St Pats side should bring in the overs. Remember, though . this is the magic of Irish Football where teams beaten 7-0 in previous amtches draw against the Champions ( as happened recently!!!)
I would be more confident of St Pats here
HORSE RACING
150 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Quiet Oasis, 9/4 New River, 5/1 Winged Valkyrie, 6/1 Abergeldie, 10/1 Grecian Goddess, 14/1 Lucy Limelites, 25/1 Dubawi Dancer, 33/1 Dancerella, 50/1 Amazon Twilight,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Both Quiet Oasis and New River made an encouraging start to their careers over C&D earlier in the month and that experience should stand them in good stead, with the latter (a daughter of Montjeu) turning the tables on today's more demanding ground. |
I don't know why I am including a fillies race after what that Sariska did to me, but here we have Hannon/Hughes maiden filly New River. Has run on good to soft, and soft ground at Newmarket is questionable ( but to be honest at Ffos Las yesterday the betting market was accurate enough despite ground concerns)
5 debutants is a worry
210 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Blazing Desert, 11/4 Lady Hestia, 6/1 Rawnaq, 7/1 Andorn, Any Given Moment, 8/1 Tillietudlem, 10/1 Jeu De Roseau.
| DIOMED VERDICT: BLAZING DESERT makes most appeal stepping up to 2m for the first time on the Flat. |
5 runners and a positive move into favouratism for Rawnaq - Mark Johnston has Joe Fanning onboard for the first time and these 2 are usually great on market leaders - it must be said this is 2 places , 2 miles and tight ( 6/1 the "outsider")
240 thirsk
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ventura Sands, 9/4 Ru´Oud, 5/1 Grand Duchy, 10/1 Anddante, Colour Vision, Illustrious Forest, 25/1 Mojolika, Sandpipers Dream, Smart Violetta, 33/1 Bodie, 66/1 Caramella Brownie, One Of Twins.
| DIOMED VERDICT: VENTURA SANDS looked a decent prospect at Newcastle and can go better. |
Head 2nd on debut for Ventura Sounds and 2nd fav is Godolphin - another maiden and a first time outer so faith in the market and connections.
255 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Piceno, 6/1 Kalahaag, 15/2 Tinkertown, 8/1 Askaud, Buzz Law, 20/1 Honourable Knight, On Wings Of Love, 40/1 Roi Du Boeuf.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It is unlikely we have seen the best of the trio at the top of the handicap but it is difficult to get away from PICENO (nap), who not only looks very well treated on his commanding Salisbury win but is also the only one proven on soft ground. Tinkertown could prove the pick of the opposition. |
Piceno was a winner on soft last time out and as only one of 5 under 20/1 in the betting forecast and live market. If the outsiders run as outsiders then Piceno under the hugely impressive-of-late Keiron Fallon has a great place chance. I watched Fallon yesterday and he really was back to his very best. Hope that carries on today.
305 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sennockian Storm, 2/1 Shamardal Phantom, 11/2 Enjoyment, 13/2 Land And Sea, 16/1 Holiday Snap, Only You Maggie, 25/1 Mackenzie Spiers, Swingle, 40/1 Spring Stock, 66/1 Bowmans Well, 100/1 Wizzacus.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Sennockian Storm was 3l in front of SHAMARDAL PHANTOM at Ascot last month but the latter lacked experience and has since shown that she can handle an easy surface. It's worth chancing that David Simcock's filly will reverse the placings. |
Significant non runner in 2nd fav means Johnston's Sennokian Storm must by default have a great chance.
Soft ground though and Senn has not run on soft. More maiden fillies! Yikes!
340 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Herculean, 11/4 Jutland, 4/1 Denton, 5/1 Resentful Angel, 8/1 Ouster, 14/1 Hollow Green,
| DIOMED VERDICT: It's not hard to be persuaded by the well-bred HERCULEAN who is the least exposed member of the field and looks the type to make his mark in handicaps. Fellow 3yo Jutland may emerge as the chief threat. |
4 runners and 2 places -simple 50/50 chance.
415 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 To Arms, 4/1 Mission Control, Mythical Prince, 10/1 Quedillac.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MYTHICAL PRINCE hasn't won for some time but is sure to have been well schooled on this first run for new connections and is taken to beat likely market leader To Arms. |
3 runners now and 2 places - novices chase - roll up roll up, pick your horse and hope he finishes and does not get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race.
435 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Call To Reason, 11/4 Significant Move, 4/1 Longsword, 6/1 En Fuego, 7/1 Launchpad, 16/1 Annuity, 50/1 Red Flash, 66/1 Transeggselence, 100/1 Chateau Galliard, Cotton King, Jaldarshaan, Present Story,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Not a great deal to go on but CALL TO REASON looked a certain future winner on her debut last October and this slower ground ought not to be a problem on her belated return. |
Only 5 under 33/1 in the live market but heed Diomed" not a great deal to go on" and add soft ground into the mix!!
5 debutants and 4 one time outers
530 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Luxurious, 7/2 Crystal Belle, 6/1 Ideal, 7/1 Riochas, 8/1 Regal Tramp, 10/1 Poinsettia, 12/1 Inexcused, 16/1 Mobane Ali, 20/1 Evening Star, Make My Heart Sing, Summer Glow, 66/1 Annamay, 100/1 Daisyanabelle.
3 Ballydoyle horses and stable number 1 Murtagh is not on the favourite but on Poinsettia. Luxurious has 2 2nds to his name and has Aiden O'Brien's son on board to claim 5lbs. O'Brien jr is a solid enough jockey.
This might be one of those races to abck the outsiders from Ballydoyle?
635 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Tamarillo Grove, 2/1 Wild Geese, 8/1 Sartingo, 10/1 Tayacoba, 50/1 Just Nod, Psalm Twentythree.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Better was expected of WILD GEESE on his debut and he should know more with that run under his belt. |
Another maiden this Friday makes for a difficult day's punting. 2 horses at 40/1 can hopefully be ignored leaving 4 horses and 2 places. Tamarillo Grove maintains odds on status and Wild Geese represents Fairley and Johnston and is of obvious interest for me.
740 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Apt Manor, 4/1 Benefique, King´sandqueen´s, 13/2 Bombalong, Tear Drops, 10/1 Harvest Moone, 25/1 All Guns Blazing, Great Oak, Milano Bay, 33/1 Great Leader, Windorah, 50/1 Saltee Mist.
I didn't think bumper winners continued to run in bumpers! Apt Manor was a horse those with a good memory will remember me mentioning prior to the win last time out. Mullins/Mullins horse.
SHORTLIST
715pm - Panathinaikos v Xanthi - 1.28 home - Greek heavyweights only lost 4 last season. A game I think I would cover with a 0-0 insurance bet given the Greek propensity for defence and the 1-0 win over Xanthi at home last season. First match of the season could always surprise.
730pm - Kaiserslautern v B Munich - 1.5 away - enter into the " more speculative" category - Bayern are missing the superb Robben who, when he plays, could conjure up a goal from nowhere in a tight game. Kaisserlautern are newcomers to Bundesliga - may put up a fight at home. Would have to insist upon trading in this match -perhaps back Bayern and hope they lead at some stage in the amtch.
745pm - St Patricks v Belgrove - 1.09 home - another to enter the "more speculative" category as this is an Irish Cup match but this should be over 2.5 goals and the price we get for over 2.5 goals might be quite good. Beware illiquid market though on Betfair. 1.30 halftime/fulltime ( although again it is Cup game) and 1.37 with Bet365 for over 2.5 goals.
This looks a little high to me for a 1.09 shot. Glass half full - get stuck in./ Glass half empty - Irish Cup unpredictability!!
255 NEWMARKET - this looks extremely obvious, and I am always wary of obvious bets as they can bite you on the backside!
But here we have Piceon, running on soft ground, having won on soft last time out, and with arguably the jockey who is at the top of his game at the moment ( Fallon) in a race where only 5 are under 20/1
1.22 to place is reasonable but this is an illiquid market at time of writing. This is a 2 year old nursery ( handicap for 2 year olds) so question regarding the consistency of these youngsters. Last run 20th August , should be ok for last race on soft.
Next 4 in the betting all won last time out! The hope is that soft ground form for Piceno is the clincher.
415 FFOS LAS - yes my one a day nemisis Tony McCoy is on To Arms and this is a 3 horse race - 2 will place , one will not.
All horses must complete of course and that ain't a given ( ask Louis Ludwig!)
EVENING RACES - of course all need looking at the market nearer race time
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Very much a case of "before the Lord Mayor's show" -yes I know there is no such phrase but I hope you udnerstand what I mean. the weekend will bring upon us many many opportunities so no need to wade in for the sake of it. So who would be my potentials today?
715pm - Panathinaikos v Xanthi - 1.28 home - I would back Panathanaikos here and cover the 0-0 but it is only 14.5 which tells you the market knows this is Greek footy! So backing Pana for £100 at 1.28, I would back 0-0 correct score at 14 for £8 - if Pana win I win equivalent 1.20 bet, if 0-0 I make a 89p loss ( I think I can handle that!) - losing bets? Scoredraw, Xanthi win.
No news from the Pana website. Xanthi could not score in 9 away matches last season and only won 1 away from home the whole season. They failed to score against the top 3 away but a 1-0, 1-0, and 0-0 shows why I want to back 0-0 as an insurance bet.
Risks? - First game of the Super League season.
730pm - Kaiserslautern v B Munich - 1.5 away -perhaps laying Kaiserslautern here would be a good option ( equivalent of a 1.14 bet) as it covers the draw. Bayern should have too much in an ideal world.
745pm - St Patricks v Belgrove - 1.09 home - down to 1.07 already as it is a very illiquid betfair market. I would look to goals immediately and opt ( well I have no choice) for over 2.5 goals. Haltftime/fulltime are also available and www.bet365.com would be the best place for these bets as there is no liquidity problem. 5-0 is only 6/1 with Ladbrokes - get the idea?
1/20 with Ladbrokes
255 NEWMARKET - 2 year old nurseries and soft ground - have I lost my marbles?
Let's look at the negatives and positives with Piceon to enable me to shelve the bet or go with it.
Negatives
- soft ground
- 2 year olds
- nursery - a handicap for 2 year olds
- 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites have all won their last race.
- Piceno has only had one run at 8 furlongs last time out
- 5 horses for 3 places ideally but as mentioned above, all 5 are winners last time out
- Keiron Fallon booked and it is good to catch him while he is in on his A Game at present
- Piceno is the only horse with soft ground form in the field.
- Piceno won on soft last time out.
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