*****ONE A DAY - 430pm - Preussen Munster v Wolfsburg - back Wolfsburg in the match odds at 1.18 ( cannot update as Betfair currently down)*****
Plenty off good opportunities today.
Ajax won but did those of you following the match in running back them again at 1.59 when 1-0 down only for the price to fall considerably upon the inevitable equaliser.
I was frustrated that I did not put Dortmund up after all that work and analysis and the relatively nice price.
All in all, a very pleasing message which I exploited fully.
I think the German Cup is a good betting proposition NOW. Why now? Well the Bundesliga teams are still in preseason and the league starts next weekend so a winning mentality going into week 1 would be ideal ( and good news for us backers -see Werder, Leverkusen and Dortmund yesterday)
1200pm - Thisted v Middelfart - 1.38 home - worth a mention for the away side - beware windy conditions today.
1245pm - AGF v Bronshoj - 1.22 home - Danish 2nd tier - too early in the season for any form lines to have formed
130pm - Heeslingen v Cottbus - 1.26 away - German Cup - Oberliegen Niedersachtsen-Ost v Bundesliga 2 ( 2nd tier I think) - IN RUNNING and +2 to +2.5 asians
130pm - Meuselwitz v FC Koln - 1.24 away - IN RUNNING -Regionaliga Nord v Bundesliga. Reasonable preseason for Koln
130pm - S-W Essen v Aachen - 1.26 away - IN RUNNING - Oberliga - Nordrhein -Westfalen v D2.2 Bundesliga
130pm - Victoria Hamburg v Oberhausen -1.34 away - Oberliga Hamburg v 2nd tier ( finished 14th) - IN RUNNING
300pm - Berliner AK v Mainz - 1.1 away - Oberliga Nord v Bundesliga - not quite as short as Leverkusen but I hope Mainz can score the 11 Bayer managed when quoted 1.06 - again enhance the odds with halftime/fulltime and goals - another team with a solid pre season.IN RUNNING
300pm - Eintracht Trier v Nurnberg -1.34 away - Regionaliga West v Bundesliga survivors IN RUNNING
430pm - Preussen Munster v Wolfsburg - 1.18 away - poor season for ex champions last season- Schteve, how you say, McClaren is the new Wolfs manager and hats off to the job he did with Twente. Should do the biz here. Highlight pre season - beat Everton 2-0. IN RUNNING
430pm - Torgelower v Hamburg - 1.04 away - see Leverkusen's 11-1 win yesterday as an indication of what we should expect from 1.06 and below shots IN RUNNING
500pm - Bodo/Glimt v Mjondalen - 1.25 home - Norwegian 2nd tier and solid home form last 3 v a team beaten 7-3, 6-2, and 5-3 in their last 3 away matches in league and cup since June 2010
500pm - Shakhtar v Karpaty - 1.22 home - 0-2 and 5-1 head to head wins for Shaktar in last 2 ( and obviously most recent) - 2 away draws last 2 games for Karpaty
530pm - CSKA Moscow v Anzhi Makhachkala - 1.28 home - CSKA not firing on all cylinders for me just yet.
745pm - Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor - 1.48 home - just a mention for perennial title contenders in Turkey
815pm - Benfica v Academica - 1.2 home - 1st home game of the season for a team looking to continue superb last season and pre season goalscoring antics - 2-3 and 4-0 head to head wins for Benfica last twice. Neutral goals bet considered? So far, Sporting have lost, Braga won well, Porto won away so Benfica need to win at home to keep early pressure on and ensure the Sporting Loss is maximised. Goals flowed pre season for Benfica but Academica went 4 home and one away friendly never conceding more than 1 - infact they only conceded 2 goals in all of those 5 matches - honing their defensive duties?
210 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lexi´s Hero, 100/30 Podgies Boy, 9/2 Jack Smudge, 7/1 Reachtothestars, Rhal, 12/1 Novalist, 20/1 Silver Angel, 33/1 Cheylesmore, Christine´s Gold, Icy Blue.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Lexi's Hero sets a fair standard but clearly has his limitations. He could be vulnerable to a likely improver in Jack Smudge and a nicely bred newcomer in the shape of the Richard Fahey-trained PODGIES BOY. |
Placed in all starts - exposed ( glass half empty) or consistent ( glass half full). Frank Spencer onboard and a 5 furlong maiden
240 DEAUVILLE - no betting forecast to relate but GOldikova runs as does Paco Boy in a race where only 4 are under 50/1
V Soft ground does not seem to have affected the market - Paco Boy is the value bet to place in what looks a 4 horse race for 3 places.
350 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Players Please, 9/2 Zafar, 6/1 Santera, 7/1 High Skies, 20/1 Baguenaud, 25/1 Bubses Boy, Contrada, 33/1 Peter Tchaikovsky, 66/1 Bilbo Boggart,
| DIOMED VERDICT: PLAYERS PLEASE has been a revelation since joining in-form rookie trainer Michael Blake and he looks to have excellent prospects of completing a four-timer, dropped in grade after defying a big weight in a Hereford novice. |
Only 4 under 20/1 here but a selling hurdle.
535 TRAMORE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Johny´s Lantern, 7/2 Witness Express, 6/1 Windwood Bay, 10/1 Lady Dyldan, Matilda Highway, Misspublican, Skiing In Tune, 12/1 Kim Tian Road, 16/1 Maggie Sue, Monaliegh, 20/1 Ginger Genie, Great Leader, 25/1 Hilton Honey, Sea Dove, 33/1 The Quiet Lady,
Mullins/Mullins a la Apt Manor.
SHORTLIST
With the German Cup matches I would like to focus solely on Bundesliga teams.
130pm - Meuselwitz v FC Koln - 1.24 away - 1.16 over 1.5 goals
300pm - Berliner AK v Mainz - 1.1 away - goals bet could enhance the odds - 1.39 over 2.5 goals - +2.5 and +3 asian handicap hints at overs - it is an enticing price and rather large for such a gulf in class.
430pm - Preussen Munster v Wolfsburg - 1.18 away +2 to + 3 asian handicaps. New manager Steve McClaren really needs a win to begin his competitive tenure at Wolfsburg
430pm - Torgelower v Hamburg - 1.04 away - asian handicap begins at +3 which tells all. Leverkusen at 1.06 won halftime/fulltime (ht/ft) and scored 11 goals.- around 1.19 for over 2.5 goals and ht/ft
815pm - Benfica v Academica - 1.2 home - first game of a new season can always bring a shock ( ask SPorting Lisbon) but Benfica seem to have retained their goalscoring abilities into pre season.
I have lost access to 2009/2010 home stats but I believe they lost only 1 match all last season and won all home matches. .
240 DEAUVILLE - I don't know how liquid or otherwise the market will be, but this looks an exploitable race. There are only 4 horses under 50/1 for this Group 1 with Goldikova and Paco Boy dominating. Betfair is currently down as I write this update and I was going to check on the place only prices.
I would have said that Paco Boy for Hughes/Hannon represents the value place only bet at likely better odds.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
300pm - Berliner AK v Mainz - 1.1 away - should be stress free, we would hope, with a straight win only bet on Mainz
430pm - Preussen Munster v Wolfsburg - 1.18 away - McClaren's first competitive managerial fixture makes this of interest for Champs only 2 years ago in the Bundesliga
430pm - Torgelower v Hamburg - 1.04 away - we can only hope that they do a Leverkusen and win at halftime/fulltime and score 11 ( over 2.5 goals is a good 1.2) but, as Betfair is currently down, I am unsure how liquid or otherwise the market is.
815pm - Benfica v Academica - 1.2 home - slight risk with competitive openers to the season -only 3 head to heads ago, Academica won 1-0 at Benfica.
I expect goals though for the home side and consideration therefore on trading.
240 DEAUVILLE - very soft ground is the sticking point here and a look through Goldikova and Paco Boy's form shows form on soft.
Paco the value bet here but Goldikova looks safe.
( Obvious each way bets would be on Fuisse and Mafki incase the ground hinders one of the big boys)
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