Faith in the football again today as Besiktas, 3-0 winners in the last Europa League round, face Helsinki from a poorer Finnish league. There is an element of risk here as this is a one off effectively ( i.e. no collateral form lines).
*****ONE A DAY - 5pm - Besiktas v HJK Helsinki - Back Besiktas in the match odds at 1.19. Please note that this game is in running and enables trading ( and if we are looking for rock solid bets, then we can always trade out if Besiktas lead at any stage****
I decided upon Man Utd with a 0-0 cover bet yesterday but the 0-0 was not required. All shortlist of the shortlist came in yesterday which was pleasing. I even hinted at the Schalke score of 2-1!
Just a note for that Schalke game. With Aalen going a man down at 0-0, this surely made backing Schalke a rock solid bet and a one a day contender without question. But as it naturally happened during the match, it was out of the scope of the message.
This need not stop you being flexible in your approach. The same applies to the horse racing for those lucky enough to follow it. If a significantly short priced horse becomes a non runner allowing a great probability bet, then pounce if you deem that a better bet than the one I chose.
FOOTBALL
5pm - Besiktas v HJK Helsinki - 1.19 back - +2 and +2.5 asian han dicap signals what the market thinks. Solid home reputation and surely the Finnish league is too weak? Europa league tie which is in running.
6pm - Standard v Real Madrid - 1.37 away - not European fixture but a friendly for the Special One and the Big Winker et al.
On paper, this should be an easy away win and as it is so close to the start of La Liga, we can hope for a first team playing? IN RUNNING
745pm - AFC Wimbledon v Histon - 1.4 home - English Conference game and I believe the lower the league the greater the ability to shock!! So bear that in mind ( hence the reason I avoid the Irish Leagues)
1-3 and 4-0 head to head victories for AFC Wimbledon in 2010 and 2009 head to heads augur well for what is a relatively nice price considering they have scored 7 in 2 against this lot.
Pre season tells me nothing, and I suppose the 1.4 factors in the fact that this is the first game of the season.
HORSERACING
215 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dream Ahead, 3/1 Lake Ontario, 4/1 Satin Love, 6/1 Waiter´s Dream, 12/1 Silvertrees, 14/1 Timothy T, 20/1 Rigolleto, 50/1 Katell,
| DIOMED VERDICT: DREAM AHEAD looked an exciting prospect at Nottingham and can take this step up in class in his stride. |
Dream ahead is the significant non runner here and I would look to lake Ontario for Ballydoyle and Satin Love for the inimitable Fanning/Johnston pairing, to take advantage.
Group 3 ( class 1) race and only 7 runners remain so good probability for placing ( only 4 to beat to place)
235 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Makeynn, 11/4 Mubtadi, 6/1 Thomas Tompion, 15/2 Papas Fritas, 11/1 Educated Son, 16/1 Ihavenotime, 25/1 Kalgoolie, 33/1 Munro´s Dragon.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MAKEYNN has a high-class pedigree and may be able to strike on debut for a yard which is 41% with 2yos this season. |
41% with 2 year olds this year!! Wow! That is eye catching. This Makeynn is a debutant and despite the exploits of the yard, we simply won't know how he handles race riding and Brighton until 238pm!!
What we can do is to look at the betting market which indicates there are only 3 horses under 16/1, and only 5 horses under 33/1 which should limit our scope for selecting a horse to place.
250 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Rewilding, 5/2 Midas Touch, 8/1 Monterosso, 10/1 Harris Tweed, Total Command, 12/1 Joshua Tree, 14/1 Ted Spread, 20/1 Dancing David, 66/1 Momkinzain, Simenon.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There is more to come from Derby third REWILDING back on a conventional track and he can enhance his Leger claims at the expense of Midas Touch. |
Rewilding is 2/1, all red, and threatening to shorten. A group 2 this one and a biggish field.
325 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Rip Van Winkle, 11/4 Byword, 4/1 Twice Over, 5/1 Dick Turpin, 25/1 Cavalryman, Cutlass Bay, Jakkalberry, 33/1 Bushman, 66/1 Stimulation.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Seven Group 1 winners in opposition including Rip Van Winkle, who was back to form at Goodwood last time, and Byword and Twice Over, who represent the sponsor, but it could be dangerous to underestimate last year's top French 3yo CAVALRYMAN, with Saeed Bin Suroor in sparkling form, and any rain will suit. The betting forecast shows only 4 horses under 25/1. Is this reflected in the live betting? In the live betting there are only 4 under 16/1 with money coming for Cavalryman each way ( a price wise horse or because he is mentioned above?) Rip van winkle surely has an outstanding probability chance of placing if he consents to be competitive. To add intrigue to the contest, Dick Turpin for the Hannon/Hughes team has been supplemented for this race to the tune of £50K - a tip in itself? 510 WORCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Papradon, 5/1 Drum Major, 15/2 Robbmaa, 10/1 London Times, Monsieur, Wisteria Lane, 12/1 Frosty´s Gift, 14/1 Glan Lady, Louis Ludwig, 20/1 Tram Express, 25/1 Am I Blue, 33/1 Ilewin Tom, Pegasus Lad.
Sam Twiston Davies is as good as they come as far as conditionals are concerned, and riding for his Dad is of great interest here in this conditional jockeys handicap hurdle . Big price gapper as well this horse at 6/4 - - - -- 7/1 600 KILLARNEY BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Palm Ridge, 4/1 Saoi, 9/2 Indus Valley, 5/1 Kims Dream, 6/1 Prince Jock, 7/1 Ladytown, 8/1 Coastal Waters, 11/1 Irish Reel. No doubting that Pat Smullen gets a tune out of this Palm Ridge in an 8 runner race for 3 places. 630 KILLARNEY BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Steinbeck, 15/8 Wade Giles, 8/1 Shintoh, 12/1 Finicius, 16/1 Ask Jack, Fourpenny Lane, Worldly Wise, 20/1 Always Be True, 25/1 Harriers Call, Scarlet O´Hara. Listed race at my local track - v interesting. No Murtagh as he is at York leaves Heffernan on Steinbeck for Ballydoyle. 810 WORCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Coeur De Lionne, 5/1 Mutadarrej, 8/1 Global, 9/1 Points Of View, 20/1 That Man Fox, Whatdoyoucallit, 25/1 Swiss Guard, 66/1 Okey Dokey, 100/1 Coach And Four, Fluters House.
Very obvious contender here with the Champ on for Paul Nicholls. BUT there is no rhyme or reason to explain that whenever I chose a McCoy ridden horse for a one a day, it fails ( 5 or 6 times now with him onboard) SHORTLIST 5pm - Besiktas v HJK Helsinki - 1.19 back - home reputation precedes them and at 1.19 are the same price as Man Utd yesterday. The asian handicap quotes point to the same outcome! This is a competitive Europa League tie and Besiktas must make home advantage count. 6pm - Standard v Real Madrid - 1.37 away - a game to trade this one - back Real and trade out if they lead at any stage. 235 BRIGHTON - a great place only race but a maiden with a lot of one time outers. The horse I would go with would be Thomas Tompion who is all red, steadily shortening , and has George baker on board. Further, this is one of 3 horses who are under 16/1 8 runners, 3 places, and 3 horses are 50/1 or bigger and can hopefully play no part. 1.37 to place. We have to place our faith in the market as these are 2 year olds and still learning. The analysis of Thomas Tompion's last race indicated that he should "improve bundles" A nice place only price but we have to hope, too, that the 3 under 16/1 are the 3 who place. 325 YORK - this is an intriguing race for us place only backers. There are 5 horses in contention now where there were 4 earlier. There has been a huge market move for Cavalryman for Godolphin - ( may be a pricewise horse) These 5 should dominate and there are 3 places available. Rip Van Winkle is 1.42 to place but I acknowledge that group 1's have in their ranks horses who are all very good. This is a very very competitive group 1 and the fact that I cannot easily discount the front 5 means that Rip Van Winkle, the obvious place chance, is not a rock solid bet, rather a good probability bet. 510 WORCESTER - Papradon looks to have a great place only chance with a clear round, but this is a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle. That said, Sam Twiston Davies is a good jockey. 1.42 to place 810 WORCESTER would, as ever, need visiting nearer race time as a lot can happen between then and now. Coeur de Lionne is interesting here for Paul Nicholls with McCoy riding, although the latter's strike rate when I chose him plummets. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST Leave York alone I think - ultra competitive high class races can lead to surprises more often than not. 5pm - Besiktas v HJK Helsinki - 1.19 back - home advantage should count here for Besiktas in this Europa League competition - negatives - no head to heads and no team news available. Asian handicaps indicate a 2 or 3 goal home win. IN RUNNING 235 BRIGHTON - for the riskier punter ( and this shouldn't really be in the shortlist of the shortlist), Tommy Tompion is the one for me to place back in this 8 runner race and 3 places. George Baker onboard , very well backed and shortening, this is a 2 year old in a maiden who has had one run and is expected to replicate sole run. There are other horses in this race with 1 run as well, and a favourite who is solidly supported and a debutant, so this is not rock solid but for me may be worth a shot ( I do like wily old Baker!!) 810 WORCESTER - Coeur de Lionne looks solid. |
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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