*****ONE A DAY - 815pm - Porto v Beira-Mar -back Porto in the Match odds at 1.19*****
Given the time of this match ( and if I do not have any anklebiters visiting today), I will update near to 8pm IF there are any team news concerns for Porto
Yesterday was a great day to load up with the football analysis proving so accurate. I certainly did and put to bed that Sariska incident. At least football teams don't plant themselves in the stalls.
The multiple featured came in easily enough with the only worry being 1-1 Everton v Wolves( and I even hinted at the draw in my analysis)
FOOTBALL
130pm - Utrecht v Willem II - 1.35 - I only generally consider PSV/Twente/Ajax when such a price in the Dutch leagues but this is worthy of investigation as the match is at home. Utrecht have won the last 7 head to heads, most recently 0-3, 1-0, 0-2. Unbeaten at home recently ( infact won all 5 recent matches including 2 Europa League matches) Utrecht have only played 2 this season - losing 3-1 away to Feyenoord, and winning 3-1 v Breda.
Willem II have lost 3-0 away and lost 5-3 at home.
Goals bet here? 1.2 over 1.5 goals IN RUNNING. Asians are a little cautious at +1 and +1.5
3pm - Celtic v St Mirren - 1.19 - home match and a chance to put a slight gap between themselves and Rangers with Rangers having a tough away fixture at Hibs ( and priced at 1.79 means, with the Old Firm, it will be very tight) 1-0 away to Caley for Celtic and 1-1 draw for St Mirren. St Mirren won 4-0 last head to head and actually have won 2 of the last 4 head to heads. A bogey team for the Bhoys? That said, Celtic have won last 2 home encounters 3-1 and 7-0.
4 draws and a win away in last 5 for St Mirren but dubious quality of opposition ( Derry City, Brechin etc)
The 4-0 drubbing was under Mowbray who couldn't manage his way out of a wet paper bag, so hopefully the good recent home results , especially an impressive 2-1 win against Braga, will ensure the game goes with the odds today. I would expect Celtic to want to take advantage of a possible dropping of points by Rangers away at Hibs.
3pm - Rapid Vienna v Mattersburg - 1.23 home - 2 home games so far 1-2 loss and 2-1 win. 2 losses and 2 wins so far this season. The 2 wins have come in their last 2 matches.
Mattersburg have lost all matches so far this season.
Head to heads 1-3, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1( Mat win), 2-3 ( Mat win), 0-3 in all matches 2010 and 2009 . Last 3 matches have been emphatic for Rapid Vienna but there have been 2 anomolous results which might lead to a neutral goals bet? 1.17 over 1.5 goals IN RUNNING
330pm - PSV v AZ Alkmaar - 1.55 home - I have toyed with the idea of backing PSV/Twente and Ajax at home regardless of the odds as their home records last year were simply beyond reproach. League encounters have been too tight to wade in on PSV, but they are in formidable goalscoring form, scoring 9 in their last 2 matches.
2 1-1 draws for AZ home and away, and guess what , a 1-1 draw in most recent head to head.
4pm - Fulham v Man Utd - 1.63 away - no Carrick and Fletcher at the back today and no Woy in opposition should see United prevail I think.
Head to heads 3-0, 0-3 (ful home win) , 0-2 ( ful home win) , 3-0, 3-0 ( away Man Utd win) - we have those 2 anomolous Fulham home wins. Remember that was under Woy who is now wesiding in Liverpool. 0-0 away draw for Fulham tells us nothing about where they are . Man Utd 3-1 win in Charity Shield and 3-0 v Newcastle - the latter a game they were expected to win.
I cannot foresee 3-0 or 2-0 Fulham today at all. Tough to get an angle in. Do we trust United to make the first breakthrough or lead at some stage? If so then 1.63 is tradeable.
4pm - Levski Sofia v Kaliakra - 1.15 home - these prices are usually very reliable for betting purposes especially in Football. We need, though, to do our research all the same - away side look to be newcomers to the Bulgarian top flight. Levski in great form at home, scoring 3, 5 and 6 in their last 3 ( 2 Europa LEague qualifiers) Away side lost 4-0 to Lokomotiv Sofia and won 1-0 away to Slavia Sofia.
ASian handicap starts at +2.5 and +3 so market makers extremely optimistic of Levski goalfest in an IN RUNNING MATCH. Enhance odds with over 3.5 goal trade BUT warning - market is illiquid
430pm - GBK v FC Korsholm - 1.23 home - looks like a Finnish 3rd Division game - gap in head to heads between 2006 and 2010 - 2010 head to head GBK won 2-0 - Korsholm have conceded 11 in last 2 away matches. Only match odds available on Betfair and Finnish 3rd Division beyond the scope of my footballing knowledge
7pm - Hajduk Split v Zadar - 1.22 home - Hajduk have been solid at home recently, scoring 4,2,3,6,3 but 2 games were Europa League qualifiers and one a friendly. Head to heads 2-1 haj win, 0-1 Zad away win, 0-3 Haj away win.
The 2 recent games have been tight, as has Zadar's away results recently, 2-0 ( loss) , 2-1(loss) , 1-1, 1-0(loss)
With head to heads not showing the kind of consistent scorelines for a 1.22 quoted side ( apart form the 3-0) I will give this a miss today
815pm - Porto v Beira-Mar - 1.19 home - with near rivals Braga dropping points yesterday and Benfica dropping points at home, Porto are priced to take 3 this evening and push ahead slightly. Head to heads, 0-5, 3-0 in favour of Porto but way back in 2007 and 2006 which tells us Beira-Mar are returning to the top flight.
So far a 0-0 draw for Beira.
Porto have won their last 5 at home ( Super Cup latest and 4 friendlies) - asians begin at +1.5 and +2 ( contrast with Sofia wherer it began at +2)
Always a slight risk with promoted teams away to the big boys. Porto were unbeaten at home last season with only 3 draws - they scored 3 or more in 9 home ( out of 15) matches last season.
1.19 could be justified this evening therefore?
9pm - Hercules v Real Madrid - 1.37 - well Barca showed us all that they will be formidable this season with easy victory in the Super Cup. With the Special One, this could be the missing piece in the Real Madrid jigsaw - he bought a defender for goodness sake, unheard of at Madrid!!! Interesting game and nice price. Spanish Secunda Division side in a friendly with Real. Not in running at present and no team news although we would suspect an away win with a first team.
HORSE RACING -
210 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dubawi Gulf, 7/2 Apace, 8/1 Menha, Tourmaline, 10/1 Ponte Di Rosa, 12/1 Flying Arch, 25/1 Hello Tomorrow, 33/1 Mazagee.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The betting should be helpful regarding the newcomers and Apace has been shaping as though this trip will suit but this ought to be well within the capabilities of downgraded DUBAWI GULF. |
8 runners down to 6 runners - meaning a 50/50 probability race and 3 places still. Dubawi Gulf has 2 2nd places and is 8/13 to take this maiden. Half the field are debutants but no significant market movers amonsgst these. There are 2 horses at 33/1 or bigger and if they run to their prices, this will be a 4 horse race for 3 places.
Great probability chance, thereforre, for Dubawi Gulf.
255 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Deire Na Sli, 7/2 Maundays Bay, 9/2 Lacy Brief, 8/1 Declan´s Warrior, 10/1 Big Bad Tyson, 12/1 Sneaky Rocket, 33/1 Grey Steel, 50/1 Indian Scout, 66/1 Regal Times, Theyturnedmedown, 100/1 Click And Go, Crowned Supreme, Kalanore.
Looks to be a lot of deadwood in this maiden - only 6 under 33/1 here. Deire Na Sli sees the Manning/Bolger parnership head the market at odds on.
455 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Blackwitch Woman, Talkin Kate, 7/1 Captain Henry, Cristal Island, John Veale, 8/1 My St Clair, 10/1 Al Khawarezmi, Beauthea, Silly Dancer, 14/1 Peculiar Prince, The Mighty Atom, 16/1 Popspeed, 20/1 Frenka, Tradewinds, 25/1 Sainglend, 33/1 Badge Of Honour, Miss Cueta, Silver Abby,
Why is Al Khawarezmi now 15/8 ( and shorter), all red and consistently backed? Fran Berry on board - looks like quite a gamble.
520 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Madame Excelerate, 9/2 Military Call, North Central, 8/1 Coolella, Shethoughtshewas, 14/1 Royal Holiday, 16/1 Brisbane, 25/1 Spread Boy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A modest handicap in which MADAME EXCELERATE can gain compensation for her near miss at Carlisle on Wednesday and beat Military Call for the third consecutive time. |
Price gapper here and now evens in places in this handicap. But what of Spread Boy, down to 12/1 in the betting, classic 16/1 system each wayer?
SHORTLIST
130pm - Utrecht v Willem II - 1.35 - head to heads make a compelling argument ( as they did for Copenhagen yesterday but Utrecht lack the overall solid profile of Copenhagen) - goals bet appeals over 1.5 goals at 1.2
3pm - Celtic v St Mirren - 1.19 - The Bhoys only seem to falter against St Mirren when they play away to them. At home, they have won 3-1 and 7-0 in their last 2 . Priced to do so again this afternoon. I was taken by the recent 2-1 home win over Braga as Braga are a good yardstick. With Rangers away to Hibs in a very tricky fixture, Celtic must win these home matches.
3pm - Rapid Vienna v Mattersburg - 1.23 home - should be a very comfortable home win but 2 anomolous MAttersburg wins 3 head to heads ago means I may opt for goals bet here - over 1.5 goals at 1.17
4pm - Levski Sofia v Kaliakra - 1.15 home - in a day that is not as strong as yesterday, Levski Sofia look correctly priced here to beat newcomers. The asian handicaps begin at +2.5 goals which is an emphatic statement from the market makers. Always a risk when 2 teams meet for the first time in recent years for the element of surprise. I would side with the asian handicapper's assessment.
815pm - Porto v Beira-Mar - 1.19 home - as above, meeting newcomers for the first time in a few years could spell surprises. Porto's home form last season was exceptional and they should have too much for Beira-mar this evening. They MUST take advantage, early season, of near market rivals dropping points ( especially at home) and win matches at home that they are expected to.
210 FOLKSTONE
Yes, 3 places on Betfair and only 6 runners makes this a great 50/50 race. Dubawi Gulf, alas, is 1.08 to place and this signals the apparent strong probability of him placing. Apace as 2nd favourite a value alternative? 1.29
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
4pm - Levski Sofia v Kaliakra - 1.15 home - +2.5 goals asian handicap is compelling. negatives? Bulgarian league a relative unknown for me
815pm - Porto v Beira-Mar - 1.19 home - put in context - Braga have won 1 and drawn 1, Sporting have lost one and play today, Benfica have lost 2, and Porto have won 1 and are 1.19 at home to win easily. An excellent opportunity to move ahead albeit so early on in the league.
210 FOLKSTONE Dubawi Gulf looks to have an good probability chance of placing, but the market reflects this at 1.08
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