I am simply chosing the shortest priced in the place only market here.
A pity I did not risk cape of dance as he actually ended up winning, and there's me harping on all the time about what a solid partnership Fanning and Johnston are.
FOOTBALL
1pm - Sibir v PSV - 1.69 away - Europa League fixtures today. - I always like looking at PSV regardless of price because they tend to equal goals! 3-1 and 6-0 already in the Dutch league!
Sibir are a Russian League side and that league is getting stronger each year with further investment.
It would , I suspect, be interesting to know the weather in Sibir.Sibir lost last 5 away, lost last home match , then win, draw , draw ,win
It is hard to gauge their quality or otherwise and we could have to go with the odds here . Asian handicaps can usually be revealing in these circumstances and point to a very tight game with Sibir receiving +0.5 and +1 goal.
Laying Sibir is an option to cover the draw and laying them at 1.62 is the same as a 1.18 back bet.
530pm - CSKA Moscow v Anorthosis - 1.23 home - and I was just mentioning the relative strengths of the Russian Premier League. In these fixtures where teams are meeting for the first time, I have to really rely on the market . +1.5 to +2.5 asian handicaps is telling us that expectation is for a 2 or 3 ( at best) CSKA home win. They play a Cypriot team and , being an island, they are a limited league in terms of quality.
530pm -Leverkusen v Tavriya - 1.17 home - the Bundesliga begins this weekend so Leverkusen are still in pre season mode. With the perception that this is a weak opposition and with game 1 of the Bundesliga looming, I hope we will not see a weakened Leverkusen side.
Solid pre season culminated in an 11-1 mauling of Pirmasens in the German Cup. Leverkusen are taking this seriously ( from the website) and the only first teamer out is enforced due to injury.
Opposition, as ever, are an unknown so reliance on the betting markets and home advantage.
+ 2 and + 2.5 goals in the asian handicaps tell us what the market makers think.
The opposition are in this competition because they won the Ukrainian Cup
700pm - Galatasaray v Karpaty - 1.35 home - it might be ominous that the mighty Shaktar only beat the away team , domestically, 1-0 on 15th August. +1.5 and +2 asian handicap quotes are optimistic enough. Another Ukrainian side in opposition and this may be tighter than the asian handicap predicts this evening.
730pm - CSKA Sofia v The New Saints - 1.23 home - The New Saints should be well out of their depth here as the Welsh league is not the highest quality innit? What's occurin' should be a straightforward home win if CSKA play their first team. +2 and +2.5 goals is the same as the Leverkusen game ( and the Leverkusen odds are shorter)
There is a slight concern that CSKA are yet to win in 3 domestic league matches this season ( 2 at home). The New Saints find themselves in the Europa League by default after failing to do anything really against Anderlecht in the early Champions League matches.
Difficult to weigh up this early season CSKA form - do they just have a tough start to this campaign or are they missing some key personnel?
730pm - Palermo v NK Maribor - 1.37 home - again it is difficult to weigh up the pros and cons of these 2 teams, one whose league has not started, and another from the relatively unknown Slovenian League.
Palermo won their last 2 home friendlies against Eastern European opposition ( in preparation for this match?) 3-0 and 4-0 which could augur well for tonight. Asian handicaps between +1 and +2
Logic tells us Seria A is stronger than the Slovenian League
5th in Seria A last season a surprise to me! Built on solid home form where they did not lose any matches at all last season.
This could point towards a lay of Maribor as a safer bet if the odds allow. 11.5 leaves a 1.09 bet
745pm - Liverpool v Trabzonspor - 1.27 home - away side were 5th domestically last season and Super Cup winners -this is a must win for the reds as Turkish away games are not the best.
+1.5 all the way up to +2.5 - the asian market makers expect at least a win, with the potential of a good win.
800pm - AZ Alkmaar v FK Aktobe - 1.22 home - I used to rely on AZ for goals but they have been very profligate of late, and this was the same story last domestic season. It is because the opposition are perceived to be so weak that they are priced at 1.22 at home. My concern is their scoring of enough goals to ensure victory ( 2 1-1's domestically so far). The Kazahkstan league is not reveered throughout the world and that is the reason AZ are so short despite goal concerns.
800pm - Napoli v Elfsborg - 1.35 - Seria A v Sweish top flight - not really much else to go on as the former's season has yet to start
805pm - Dortmund v Karabakh - 1.18 home - old faithful Dortmund continued their impressive pre season with a 3-0 German Cup win ( one a day selection) - they look to be in rude health, and similarly priced, are trustworthy enough to chance again? Azerbaijan opposition this evening for Dortmund, and they will seek to make home advantage count.
BVB have the chance to qualify for the group stages of a European competition for the first time in eight years, which according to sports director Michael Zorc could generate an additional revenue of "more than five million euros." - quite an incentive!!
There is a concern with all European clubs whose leagues kick off this weekend, that they may field weakened sides against perceived easy opposition.
900pm - Villarreal v Dnepr Mogilev - 1.21 home - Belarussian opposition for the well known La Liga contenders - hence the home quote . Again, the La Liga season has not began yet.
HORSE RACING
145 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Wootton Bassett, 9/2 Cape To Rio, 8/1 Reckless Reward, Tom Sawyer, 12/1 Galtymore Lad, Majestic Myles, 16/1 Al Madina, Diamond Geezah, Mappin Time, 20/1 Bahceli, Remotelinx, Shoshoni Wind, 25/1 Chiswick Bey, 40/1 Bussa, Capaill Liath, 50/1 My Son Max, Waking Warrior, 66/1 Indieslad, Welsh Dancer, 100/1 Dubai Celebration.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Reckless Reward may prove the pick of the Hannon team, despite Richard Hughes opting for Cape To Rio, but both may find WOOTTON BASSETT, who is held in high regard, too strong. Majestic Myles may be best of the others. |
Fav is now 6/4, all red and strong in the market, with next best 6/1 . Logic tells us that this is York, it's competitive (20 runners) and its 2 year olds, and to steer clear!!
215 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Maqaasid, 5/2 Margot Did, 7/1 Rimth, 9/1 Hooray, 10/1 Perfect Tribute, 14/1 Imperialistic Diva, Queen Of Spain, 66/1 Joyously.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Rimth is a virtual unknown quantity but this may well rest betweenMAQAASID and Margot Did. The last-named is likely to be suited by this track after twice being collared late on over the stiffer 6f at Ascot but slight preference is for Maqaasid who always appeared to have matters in hand at Royal Ascot despite not getting the best of runs. |
The straight 8 means this is worth a look for place only betting.
Only 4 under 12/1 and only 5 under 20/1. We hope the front 2 dominate.
240 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tout Regulier, 7/2 Kilmore West, 4/1 Front Of House, 7/1 Forcryingoutloud, 10/1 Apache Dawn, 20/1 Bachley Gale, 33/1 Viking Affair, 40/1 Holy Balloney.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TOUT REGULIER has plenty in hand on recent evidence and should be hard to beat. |
325 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sariska, 9/4 Midday, 5/2 Snow Fairy, 14/1 Meeznah, 16/1 Hibaayeb, 25/1 Eleanora Duse, 33/1 Flying Cloud, 40/1 Barshiba.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SARISKA can see off old rival Midday. |
Another good place only race sees 8 runners and only 4 under 18/1 . Sariska s a name that stands out in a race which the betting forecaster thinks is between Sariska, Midday and Snow fairy
500 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Louis Ludwig, 7/1 Strumble Head, 8/1 Mystic Touch, 9/1 Scotsbrook Cloud, 12/1 Intense Suspense, 14/1 Ruby Valentine, 16/1 Adjami, Silver Sonnet, 20/1 Zizou, 25/1 Standing Order, 40/1 Bond Cruz, Young Tot.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Louis Ludwig is likely to be a very short price and it might be worth looking towards INTENSE SUSPENSE. He is not one for the faint-hearted but there are reasons to think he is better than recent form figures suggest |
Only William Hill and Paddy Power price up Louis Ludwig which hints that he may be a non runner. O very obvious interest if he does run.
510 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cobo Bay, 7/4 Lang Shining, 100/30 Orchard Supreme, 13/2 Visions Of Johanna, 33/1 Pursestrings, 66/1 Beck´s Bolero.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Cobo Bay could be tough to reel in but the marginal vote goes to LANG SHINING who is unbeaten in three runs here. |
Cobo Bay always seems reliable in claimers.
810 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Allure Of Illusion, 11/2 Maddoxtown, 6/1 Best Think Twice, 13/2 Border Station, 8/1 True Character, 9/1 Charming Blue, 10/1 Bourbon St Blues, 12/1 Rapid Fire, 14/1 Tuskar, 16/1 Frank Lowbo, 20/1 The Shizz, 25/1 Fordinkum, Great Oak, 100/1 All Guns Blazing, Tic Tac Jack.
Mullins/Mullins fav of obvious interest despite being a debutant.
SHORTLIST
530pm -Leverkusen v Tavriya - 1.17 home - faith in the Bundesliga again today - serious attitude from the management team and a strong first XI includes Micheal Ballack in the 18 man squad.
730pm - CSKA Sofia v The New Saints - 1.23 home - poor start domestically for CSKA this season sees them yet to win, but the New Saints are here having failed to cut it in the Champions League early rounds. Gulf in class should tell despite a domestically faultering CSKA
730pm - Palermo v NK Maribor - 1.37 home - there must be something to Palermo for them to finish 5th domestically last season.
805pm - Dortmund v Karabakh - 1.18 home - the financial importance of progression is all too apparent to Dortmund who look in good health. Opposition may be difficult to break down but home advantage should tell for a side who have sold 50,000+ season tickets!!
900pm - Villarreal v Dnepr Mogilev - 1.21 home - La Liga v Slovenian League should be enough of a gulf in class?
145 YORK - it goes against logic to put up Wooton Bassett but why 6/4 in a 19 runner field?
As to traffic, well fast horses over sprint distances would tend naturally towards the front end and these cavalry charges usually use up the whole course. 1.56 is tempting for what should be a logical lay ( 19 runners, 2 year olds etc)
240 STRATFORD - looks a great place only race with only 4 under 20/1 - Tout regulier is 1.18 to place and is the obvious one, but you could speculate on one of Front of House, Kilmore West, or Forcryingoutloud at better odds
325 YORK - only 3 under 12/1 and only 4 under 20/1 and this should be between Sariska, Midday and Snow Fairy, and I would default to the favourite Sariska to place, despite the beret wearing antics of jockey Frank Spencer.
1.38, 1.51 and 1.51 for these 3 to place.
If this is a match between Sariska and Midday, then Midday's 1.51 stands out to place.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
530pm -Leverkusen v Tavriya - 1.17 home - look to play first team despite league start at weekend
805pm - Dortmund v Karabakh - 1.18 home - reliable pre season and look motivated in this Europa League
325 YORK - Sariska at 1.38 to place may be too good to miss but Midday is very appealing. We have to hope that the race pans out as the market suggests.
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