With this in mind, I acknowledge that the Weekend sees major European Leagues begin and ample opportunties for bets of the ilk of Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen yesterday.
*****ONE A DAY - I will update 8-pm for the 820 Killarney*****
I think rainbow Peak looks solid today but have to bow to caution because of yesterday's huge disapointment.
I thought I would give Frank Spencer the benefit of the doubt yesterday as he was on Sariska, and wouldn't you just know it, the horse plants herself in the stalls. I must admit I was extremely disappointed as I had done 2 1/2 hours solid work yesterday, highlighted nice solid bets like Dortmund and Leverkusen, and decided on a bigger price in Sariska, who I am sure would have placed ( the 325 York saw the 1st and 2nd coming from the first 3 in the market - with Sariska making up the 3rd). There was absolutely nothing in Sariska's form which would have hinted at this. Paddy Power and Boylessports returned losing stakes, but I suppose Betfair are stuck, as they cater for lucky layers and unlucky backers.
I also pointed at Midday being appealing ( in the shortlist of the shortlist) as well as Dortmund and Leverkusen ( who both won at a canter) . The bet goes down as a losing one, but like Petronius Maximus, is very bad luck indeed.
I am quite happy to take it on the chin if a horse is unplaced having actually fecking ran, but for said horse to quite simply refuse is too much to take! I was on a good winning sequence that should have continued yesterday.
FOOTBALL
5pm - H Berlin v Oberhausen - 1.47 home - Bundesliga last season for Hertha Berlin - surely this club is too big to be in the 2nd tier for too long? Strong home favourites against Oberhausen. Have Hertha Berlin maintained the Bundesliga squad from last year? A crowd of 40,000 is expected this evening which really should boost Hertha hugely. Their website proclaims " promotion certainties"
First game of the season and unknown teams to each other. The Hertha camp are extremely buoyish and a poll of Managers in the 2nd tier made them red hot favs for promotion.
What concerns me is that Hertha won only once at home last season, drawing 6 and losing 10. Have things shifted so much pre season that they can be relied upon, albeit in a lower league? IN RUNNING. May be tradeable in that we can back Hertha at 1.47, and hope they score first to trade out?
5pm - NK Zagreb v Inter Zapresic - 1.4 home - Croatian First Division - only the Match Odds are available. 2009 head to heads - 2 victories each for either side so as far as I am concerned, this could go either way regardless of the odds.
530pm - SCR Altach v St Polten - 1.32 home - Austrian 2nd division so quality not that good . Altach look solid enough at home, 4-0, 2-0, and 4-0 in their last 3 home league matches. Again,l though, the head to heads are a headscratcher!
Altach won away 2-0, lost away 1-0 and lost at home 3-0 in the 3 head to heads in 2010 and 2009. Again, no consistency for Altach against St Polten.v IN RUNNING and the asian handicaps are +1, +1.5 and +2 which looks positive for Altach.
700pm - Cambuur v Emmen - 1.35 home - 2nd in the 2nd tier of Dutch football last season. Emmen have already been beaten at home 3-0 by FC Zwolle this season. 2-4 and 1-0 head to heads in favour of Cambuur was preceded by a 3-2 Emmen win. 2 of the 3 most recent head to heads have been over 2.5 goals, but that 1-0 is a niggle. I would have liked an over 1.5 goal market here but the match is not in running and offers only match odds and 2.5 goals markets
700pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Almere - 1.4 home - 2-1 away win for Sparta and 3-1 home win for Almere City ( I think they used to be Omniworld) - home advantage telling for one of the big Dutch cities?
700pm - Waalwijk v Telstar - 1.4 home - 0-0 in their first match and 1-1 for Telstar. Waalwijk are coming from the top flight and should be strong at home. 3-0 against telstar in 2009 augurs well.
800pm - Shamrock Rovers v Bray - 1.23 home - Shamrock Rovers are unbeaten at home, have won their last 3 at home, are unbeaten in 13, have lost only one in their last 22 matches. Their performances against Bray previously - 1-0 home win and 0-0 away. This is the conundrum of the Irish leagues!!
Bray have lost away to all of the top 5 in this league, have only won 3 in 25, and 2 of last 16 matches ( those 2 wins coming 30th July and 13th August -very recent) NOT IN RUNNING
Last 4 home head to heads have been 1-0 , 3-1, 0-1. Shamrock Rovers are priced tonioght to replicate the 3-1 but the head to heads have generally been so inconsistent that we cannot tell which Rovers will turn up tonight.
HORSE RACING
215 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Rainbow Peak, 8/1 Kings Gambit, Rio De La Plata, 10/1 Critical Moment, 12/1 Cesare, Confront, Field Of Dream, Harrison George, 14/1 Distant Memories, 20/1 Vesuve, 40/1 Halicarnassus,
| DIOMED VERDICT: The highly progressive RAINBOW PEAK looked a Group-race winner waiting to happen when winning impressively at Royal Ascot and is likely to be hard to beat. |
Like Wooton Basset yesterday, Rainbow Peak is another eye catching price gapper.11/8 - - - - -8/1 is almost identical to Wooton yesterday. LAst ran 18th June a slight niggle but a " group winner waiting to happen" and " likely to be hard to beat"
305 BANGOR ON DEE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Cass Bligh, 13/8 Vertige Dore, 16/1 Flichity, 200/1 Fenella Mere.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CASS BLIGH can make his experience tell. |
One clear outsider leaves 3 horses fighting for 2 places in this novices hurdle. There are 2 obvious in Cass and Vertigo and one spoiler in Flichity. My nemisis McCoy is onboard Vertigo and he is almost as bad as Frank Spencer when chosen as one a days.
325 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Starspangledbanner, 7/2 Equiano, 15/2 Kingsgate Native, 8/1 Fleeting Spirit, 12/1 Borderlescott, Stone Of Folca, 20/1 Dinkum Diamond, Rose Blossom, 33/1 Mister Hughie, Spin Cycle, 40/1 Prime Defender, 100/1 Piccadilly Filly, Sole Power.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Aidan O'Brien won this with his July Cup winners Stravinsky and Mozart and can do the trick again with STARSPANGLEDBANNER who can confirm his Newmarket superiority over Equiano, Kingsgate Native and Fleeting Spirit from the highest draw. |
Obvious contender in Ballydoyle's Star spangled banner
425 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Calipatria, 7/2 Madonna Dell´Orto, 11/2 Ijaaza, 7/1 Alioonagh, 8/1 Royal Assent, 10/1 Regency Girl, 16/1 Only You Maggie, 25/1 Lalika, 33/1 Fair Breeze, Sennybridge.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CALIPATRIA almost certainly has more to offer given a stiffer test than she has had so far. |
Faith in another damn filly? 11/10 now and evens in places, and after 2 promising runs, this maiden filly is expected to improve.
450 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Manacor, 3/1 Mawaakef, 9/2 Quill And Vellum, 6/1 Admiral Of The Red, 8/1 Factum, 9/1 Nucals Star, 10/1 Harrison´s Cave, 12/1 Mykonos, 33/1 Alpha And Omega, 50/1 Hangar Five, Kestrel, 66/1 Bleuker, The Ice Factor, 100/1 Bad Sinner, Edenshaw,
Weld/Smullen's Manacor jumps out at me here in this big field maiden.
715 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Two Feet Of Snow, 3/1 Bendigedig, 4/1 Venus Empress, 10/1 Silver Angel, 16/1 Livia Quarta, 25/1 Isontonic, Minus Tolerance, Royal Classy Cleo, 50/1 Kachiri, Sister June.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TWO FEET OF SNOW, who will appreciate the drop in class, can return to winning ways. |
Hannon 2 year olds deserve consideration especially when favourites , despite this being a poor all weather 2 year old seller. Only 4 under 12/1 and 5 under 20/1 indicates potential deadwood
740 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Supercede, 11/2 Fastey, 6/1 Billie Beg, Randoon Hill, 7/1 Dream Honours, Hot Friend, 8/1 Defying Gravity, 12/1 Casadei, Eldon Rosie, Keoghs Tradbar, Leegane, Westmeath Bachelor, 14/1 Kilbane River, 16/1 Mighty John McGee,
Gordon Elliott's Supercede is an awfully short price for a handicap, and a handicap chase to boot - take the hint?
820 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Endless Intrigue, 3/1 The Real Article, 5/1 Swiftmarc, 11/2 End Of The Affair, 8/1 The Last Don, 12/1 Jawad, Matchbook, 14/1 Kirbybroguelantern, 25/1 The Buck, 100/1 Jimmy Dale.
2nd fav a non runner
SHORTLIST
I am rather on the backfoot today with what became a losing day yesterday which should have been nowhere near being a losing day. I am aware that Saturday and Sunday will bring on an abundance of opportunities, so there is no real pressure today.
5pm - H Berlin v Oberhausen - 1.47 home - can such abysmal home form last year be swept under the carpet now Hertha are in the 2nd tier. 40,000 expected this evening and that could be the clincher. I would back Hertha at 1.47 to lay off if they lead at any stage. Only 1 win last season at home needs to have been addressed.
800pm - Shamrock Rovers v Bray - 1.23 home - Shamrock Rovers should not lose tonight but will they win? 1-0 and 0-0 against Bray recently is not the form of 1.23 shots. It must be said that Shamrock are rock solid at home ( by that I mean unbeaten) Not in running. The Irish League has an element of inconsistency which makes it a reluctant betting medium. I thought I would investigate given the price of the home side.
215 YORK - almost a carbon copy of Wooton Bassett yesterday but a couple of differences - only 11 runners and the place only price is only 1.37 ( as compared to 1.5+ for Wooton bassett yesterday)
This is a huge price gap for Rainbow View and as shown yesterday, they can be worth heeding despite looking like obvious lays.
325 YORK - Starspangledbanner is another "all red" candidate like Rainbow View who is being battered into 7/4 already this morning. Has been running almost exclusively over 6 furlongs recently and, from my perspective, in a Group 1 you want as few niggles as possible. Will this drop to 5 furlongs suit Star?
On commenting on the Nunthorpe in analysis of his last winning run, mention was made of Star's blistering early speed which would see him go off a short price for today's race. Take the hint?
1.56 to place I suppose is a standard price for a Group 1 sprint.
820 KILLARNEY - with the 2nd favourite a significant non runner, dare we chance Endless Intrigue for McNamara and Dermod Weld with nearest rival out.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
The football has too many imponderables as it is the beginning of the season. Question marks over Hertha's pitiful home Bundesliga form - lower league now and have they corrected their errors? Dutch 2nd tier is in early stages and there are no collateral form lines. Irish League is just too inconsistent for us to faithfully follow the prices.
As to the horse racing, well, if Sariska consented to actually run yesterday, I wouldn't be ultra cautious today with bet selection.
I am sure Rainbow Peak can follow in Wooton Bassett's footsteps and Starspangledbanner can run very well in the Nunthorpe but this is a Group 1 5 furlong sprint and he is dropping in trip for the first time in ages.
820 KILLARNEY - is probably the race of best interest for me today, but I will need a closer look at the market so will update at 8pm - a significant non runner should make Endless Intrigue's job a lot easier.
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