The only other race which appeals is a class 6 2 year old claimer, where Hortensia has been spanked into 1/3 and is 1.07 - 1.08 to place. A superb probability race this one with 3 horses and 2 places , we would have to trust the market above the fact these are 2 year olds.
*****ONE A DAY - another " after the Lord Mayor's show" Monday leaves me less than confident in anything today. No bet for me. If you want to play probabilities then you'll not see a better probability race than the 230 Hamilton and a stronger fav than the 1/3 Hortensia ( if you take the market as accurate in a poor 2 year old class 6 claimer)
Valerenga would be my football match of interest but purely from an inrunning and trading perspective and perhaps a 0-0 cover bet.
So to re-iterate, no bet today. Hope for better opportunities in the week ahead.
Few problems with Porto yesterday and another excellent weekend of football opportunities.
FOOTBALL
6pm - Valerenga v Sandefjord - 1.28 home side - Norwegian first division - Valeranga have won 9 out of the last 10 head to heads, most recently 1-0 and 2-0 away, BUT a very recent home match saw them lose 2-1 . In July and August Sandefjord have been tight away from home with 2 0-0's and a 1-0 loss. This ties in with 1-0 loss in head to heads in most recent match in 2010. IN RUNNING SO OF INTEREST
7pm - Breidablik v Haukar - 1.22 home - Icelandic First Division -last head to head in 2010 saw Breidablik win 4-2 , and the matches prior to that began in 2005. This indicates newcomers to the top flight in Haukar. Last 3 aways have been over 2.5 goals . I would like an over 1.5 goal bet but Betfair only offer match odds and over 2.5 goals.
HORSERACING
It looks a typically difficult Monday card when I gave it a cursory glance last night. Perhaps some non runners and market movers have developed in the interim to bring forth a decent opportunity.
230 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Hortensia, 3/1 Roodee Queen, 9/2 Norwegian Liberty.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HORTENSIA comfortably sets the standard and scores highly on consistency. |
As I mention market movers, here is a significant one in Hortensia into 1/3 in the live betting market. A superb probability race, As I always say in these race types it's lucky dip time. 3 horses - 2 will place. This is a 2 year old class 6 claimer so is perhaps not an ideal race type for betting purposes. I have generally found 2 year olds to be very temperamental and inconsistent ( as is their wont being learmers)
245 kempton
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Cheetah, 9/4 Dolphina, 8/1 Kristalette, 10/1 Inner Angel, 14/1 Floridita, 16/1 Distant Waters, Moonlight Mischief, 25/1 Beseech, Dongola, 33/1 Star Hill, 50/1 Sea Tobougie, 66/1 Danvilla, 100/1 She´s Untouchable.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CHEETAH will like the trip and gets the nod over Dolphina. |
We see these types time and time again - Dolphina has 3 2nd places in this maiden and is near joint fav with Cheetah. Newcomer Moonlight Mischief looks to have been backed.
the dilemma is whether 1) this race goes the way of the market i.e. Cheetah and Dolfina both place 2) there are some possible improvers amongst the 6 debutants and first time outers open to improvement.
Will Dolfina remain consistent or do an Advertisement and run unplaced just the once!!
450 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sirocco Breeze, 11/4 Riggins, Secrecy, 8/1 Capital Attraction, 12/1 Viva Vettori, 16/1 Cloudy Start, 25/1 Ceremonial Jade.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SECRECY, who looks the pick of the Godolphin pair, can see off Riggins. |
This is what makes Monday so frustrating - another 2 the place race. But here we have a significant non runner in Riggins which leaves the Godolphin pair as clear market leaders and it is a difficult choice between 2 excellent jockeys in Dettori and Durcan.
515 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Invincible Ridge, 4/1 Commended, 12/1 Proper Charlie, 16/1 Blue Deer, L´Astre De Choisir, Pearl Arch, 20/1 Babich Bay, Valerius Maximus, Zahraan, 25/1 Dusty Bluebells, Konstantin, Swaninstockwell, Whistle On By, 33/1 Les Verguettes, Special Endeavour, 50/1 Looney Les.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Commended is a newcomer to note but INVINCIBLE RIDGE sets a good standard on his recent second here and is likely to be very hard to beat for his top 2yo yard. |
Pearl Arch is a very significant market mover into 9/4, all red, 2nd favourite behind the Hannon/Hughes Invincible Ridge. Both have had the single run and are automatically expected to replicate that one run here.
Only 4 under 25/1 augurs well enough but we need to trust one time out 2 year olds
7 debutants and 5 one time outers make up this field. All of the conundrums you could wish for in a maiden are shown here. Any of the 7 debutants could surprise, and any of the other 4 one time outers could improve markedly.
700 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Nave, 100/30 High Office, 13/2 Amazing Blue Sky, 8/1 Snow Dancer, 9/1 Daytime Dreamer, Persian Peril, 12/1 Royal Straight, 16/1 Robby Bobby.
| DIOMED VERDICT: NAVE may well win again. Fanning/Johnston on a market leader will always get a mention - the straight 8 runners and 3 places makes this an ideal place only race, but an outsider at 14/1 only means this is a tight old handicap. SHORTLIST Well what can I say? After an excellent weekend with opportunities raining down on us, a typical Monday follows with 2 the place races, maidens where horses have only had one run, tight handicaps , 2 year old claimers. You name the bad race type, it's here today. As to the football, well it's either Norwegian Division 1 or Icelandic Division 1. 6pm - Valerenga v Sandefjord - 1.28 home side - I put this game up as a shortlister because it is in running. What concerns me is Sandefjord's tightness away from home. This could easily end up a 0-0 or a 1-0 away smash and grab. Like Copenhagen the other day, Valerenga dominate the head to heads. They have won 9 of the last 10 head to heads. Hugely impressive. I would consider a back of Valerenga here with perhaps a 0-0 correct score insurance bet ( to win back my stake on Valerenga. ) £100 stake on Valerenga would necessitate a £3.70 stake at odds of 30 for 0-0 in order to cover the stake. 7pm - Breidablik v Haukar - 1.22 home - Haukar are newcomers to the Icelandic First Division and in a 2010 encounter with Breidablik, lost 4-2. BET365 is the place for football bets and I visit there regularly to see if there are any markets which are not available on Betfair ( in this case I am looking for over 1.5 goals but that is not apparent) Betfair offer only match odds and over 2.5 goals. I would prefer this to be in running and would prefer over 1.5 goals ( as it is Icelandic football, I would prefer the option to trade) 230 HAMILTON - dare we put faith in the betting market here in this 3 runner, 2 place 2 year old claimer? if so, then Hortensia has been battered into 1/3 and is 1.07 ( small money at 1.08) to place. Superb probability of course but 2 year olds are hardly reliable sorts. Of the other races we have 2 maidens, a conditions stakes race with only 2 places, and a tight handicap with the "outsider" at 14/1. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST Quite obviously the 230 Hamilton is by far the best probability race of the day. This " looks hers to lose" so Spotlight comments regarding Hortensia, for Mick Channon and Sam Hitchcott. |
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