*****ONE A DAY -2pm - FC Copenhagen v Lyngby - Back FC Copenhagen in the match odds at 1.28 ( backed down from 1.31 when I started blog!!) The head to heads, season form thus far all look afar too compelling) IN RUNNING so trading a viable option and recommended if they lead
Cautious day yesterday thanks to the Sariska fiasco spoiling August. I need not have been so cautious in hindsight as all strong mentions placed.
FOOTBALL
1pm Spartak Moscow v Tomsk 1.37 home - in running - 2010 and 2009 head to heads have seen 2 draws and a 5-0 win for Spartak yet they are still priced 1.37 with home advantage. This game should equal goals, and over 1.5 goals is an interesting alternative which includes both sides. In head to heads played at Spartak, the home team have won them all - that could be the clincher. Tomsk's last 5 away matches have been 2-1 ( 4 losses on the trot and a 2-1 win) -quite a coincidence - points to the fact they can score away from home - and again returns me, perhapsm, to the over 1.5 goals. Over 1.5 goals is 1.31 which is very similar to Spartak's match odds. Also tradeable.
2pm - FC Copenhagen v Lyngby - 1.33 home - in running - 5 matches into the season and it's 4 wins and a draw - at home it is one win and one draw. Copenhagen have scored 2 or more in 4 of their 5 matches so look in rude health up front and consistent too.
ALL games thus far have been over 1.5 goals for Copenhagen
Copenhagen have won 9 and drawn 1 game 0-0 in their head to heads. On 4 occasions they scored 4 and on 4 occasions they scored 3 against Lyngby. Again there's that word consistent. The asian handicap is optimistic starting at +1.5
Lyngby away have lost one and drawn one. All in all they have lost 2, won 2 home games 1-0 and drawn another away match 2-2.
1.23 looks rather generous for the over 1.5 goals ( it may rely on Copenhagen unless Lyngby can replicate their 2-2 draw recently against Silkeborg. In fact, Lyngby have scored in both away matches so far which may contribute to ensuring over 1.5 goals obliges ( remember these types of bet rely on both teams rather than having to nail our colours to one team only.
3pm - Arsenal v Blackpool - 1.17 home - in running - the asian handicap begins at +2 so this game , as far as market makers are concerned, is over already. Sub 1.2 in the Premiership rarely falters. There is always a chance of a hint when 2 teams meet for the first time. Simple tactics may throw the strongly fancied side. Blackpool's famous win at Wigan told us more about the state of Wigan than anything else. That said, Blackpool's reputation for goal in the Championship continued into the 1st game in the Premiership. 1.14 over 1.5 goals, and a tasty 1.41 over 2.5 goals. Bear in mind the 1.2 and below bets thus far this season have yielded nearly 10 goals in 2 games! Arsenal at home last season only lost against Chelsea and Man Utd, and only drew 2 games against Man City and Everton and will seek to replicate this home dominance this season.
Will Blackpool be caught out today?
3pm - Everton v Wolves - 1.52 home - tight as a gnat's chuff! 1-1 and 0-0 in head to heads signals a lay of Everton initially in the hope of a tight game? Wolves won 2-1 at home and Everton lost 1-0 away from home ( again another tight game) -Everton at home last season only lost to Liverpool and Arsenal. They did draw 6 games at home, including Wolves
Against the top 14 last season, Wolves away lost 9, drew 4 and won 1 - generally leaning towards a lay of Wolves away!! 1.36 under 3.5 goals is of some appeal and as this is in running, I would trade as that price allows some trading ( e.g. if 0-0 at half time
3pm - Falkirk v Stirling - 1.4 home - Scottish Division 1 - Stirling have not won a match yet and Falkirk are coming from the Scottish Premier League where admittedly they put up a fight against some of the big boys last season. Home advantage could be telling against a team who were promoted from Scottish 2nd division - looks an ideal early season opponent for Falkirk. NOT IN RUNNING
3pm - QPR v Scunthorpe - 1.5 home - in running -QPR have won 2 games so far ( 1 home, 1 away) 3-0 and 4-0 so are motoring ( albeit only 2 games in). Scunny have won 1 away and lost 1 at home. Head to heads 1-0 away win Scunny and 1-0 away win QPR - momentum very definitely with QPR but historically havfe found Scunthorpe tough opponents
5pm - Volyn v Shakhtar - 1.22 away - Last met in 2005 so this is a newly promoted side v solid Premier leaguers. Hence the bias for the away side. Volyn tight at home last 2 matches 1-0 loss and 0-0 but difficult to gauge the opposition as compared with the might of Shaktar. Asian handicap begins at +1.5 and extends to +2.5 - confidence with Shaktar - in running
515pm - Wigan v Chelsea - 1.29 away - teams mauled in their last match do tend to surprise in their next, by which I mean Wigan will do everything possible to ensure there is no repeat at home again! Chelsea won 8-0 last time out in head to heads ( and lost 3-1 at Wigan prior to that) - and that is exactly what Wigan do not need. Difficult to predict Wigan's attitude today - as I said, I have seen it time and again that a team spanked the week before puts up a much better performance the following game.
6pm - Lyon v Brest - 1.41 home - 0-0 at home and 3-2 away loss to newcomers Caen is not the best start for Lyon. The longer they go without a win, ( especially at home) the nearer to a win they will get. Brest are more newcomers ( they like to play with 2 up front - Groan!!!) , and have lost away to Toulouse and drew 1-1 with Auxerre.
Difficult to gauge what shape Lyon are in at present
645pm - Groningen v De Graafschap - 1.48 home - 2 draws so far for Grongingen including a fightback against Ajax in the first match of the season. Seuqences always end and they are priced, at home, to end this small draw sequence. De Graafshaf won 3-0 at home and then lost 6-0 away to PSV. 2009 and Grongingen won 1-0 and in 2008 Gorningen won 3-0 at home.
7pm - Besiktas v Buyuksehir - 1.42 home - 1-0 away win for Besiktas so far this season but at home in European competition they have kept up their reputation.with 2-0, 3-0 and 3-0 home wins recently Away side have lost 2-0 at home so far this season.
Head to heads and Besiktas at home in 2010 and 2009 won 2-0 and 2-1.
7pm - Chernomorets B v Vidima Rakovski - 1.25 home - Bulkgarian league - not sure how consistent such a league is.
730pm - Barcelona v Sevilla -1.31 home -barca lost only one game all of last season - a 2-1 away loss to Athletico Madrid. At home they won all matches bar a 1-1 draw with Villareal. They scored first in 89.47% of all games last season. 74% of home games finished over 2.5 goals last season. They have just signed David Villa. They should sweep aside all before them this new season and that should include this Super Cup which the manager will be keen to win ( he wants to win all!)
3-1 loss to Sevilla at Sevilla should be turned around this evening. +1.5 and +2 asian handicaps signal that market makers think home advantage and deficit to overcome should be enough to get on barca this evening
In running - only a meaningless cup match but important for Barca to keep winning at home.
745pm - Ajax v Roda JC - 1.19 home - head to heads - 4-0 0-0, 1-2 away win for Ajax augurs well tonight. Last 2 Ajax games, I believe , have been without Suarez so the 2-2 away draw ( were 2-0 up) and 4-2 home win ( were 1-0 down) is very promising. Remember Suarez scored 35 goals last season!! Roda drew 0-0 at home to Twente ( one of the big 3 last season so a slight warning for Ajax) and won 3-1 away to ADO Den Haag.
Asian handicap begins at +1.5 all the way up to +2,5
If Suarez plays, this becomes a stronger bet for Ajax in my mind. Over 1.5 goals at 1.11 signals goals
915pm - Nacional v Benfica - 1.61 away - very poor home loss for Benfica last game needs to be addressed with a win soon or they will already be slightly adrift from main opponents Porto, Braga, and Sporting Lisbon. National won 1-0 away.
0-1, 1-0, 6-1, all Benfica wins in head to heads in last 3 matches.. Tight affairs - just what Benfica don't need away from home after losing a match they should have won last week.
Putting the shock home loss into context, Benfica only lost 2 matches ALL of last season, both away to Braga and Porto ( certainly not Academica!!!) Can we view this as a must win already?
HORSE RACING
205 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Seta, 100/30 Decorative, 11/2 Chachamaidee, Long Lashes, 8/1 Blue Angel, 10/1 Flora Trevelyan, 14/1 Summer Fete, 50/1 Arrivederla, Victoria Sponge.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Seta has long been the apple of Luca Cumani's eye but Michael Jarvis has been even more patient with the unbeaten and highly regarded DECORATIVE and she gets a handy 4lb today. |
3 non runners are not significant but what they do do is to shorten the market to 6 runners, 3 of whom will place - Seta and Decorative to dominate? They have a better probability of placing now.
210 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Beyond, 11/2 Ocean Club, 6/1 Charmeur, 8/1 Othello, 11/1 Gulf Punch, 25/1 Baltic Ben, Massachusetts, 40/1 Storm Command.
| DIOMED VERDICT: BEYOND looks an above average recruit to hurdling for the time of year and he can complete his hat-trick, possibly at the main expense of Ocean Club, whose breeding suggests he will prove much better as a jumper than he was on the Flat. |
Now 4/9 and solid in the betting market but has been my one a day nemisis AP McCoy onboard. He would lose a one horse race if I select him for one a day's it would seem.
235 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Native Khan, 3/1 Roayh, 5/1 Measuring Time, 11/2 Stentorian, 7/1 Titus Mills, 10/1 Waltz Darling, 16/1 Surrey Star, 33/1 Ocean Bay.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Stentorian, who found only classy King Torus too good at Goodwood, should go well but faces another potentially high-class rival in NATIVE KHAN. Roayh, ready for the step up to 7f, should also be thereabouts. |
The 2nd depleted field at Sandown puts a questionmark over the ground. This 8 runner race has reduced to 6, and again it's 50/50 - 3 will place, and 3 will not. Native Khan, Roayh , Measuring Time and Stentorian all have impressive jockey/trainer combos and I am hopeful that the 3 places will come from these 4 horses.
255 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Meow, 4/1 Moonlit Garden, 9/2 Lightening Thief, 8/1 Mr Man In The Moon, 12/1 Snow Mountain, 14/1 Foolproof, Ladie´s Choice.
Meow has Murtagh onboard for David Wachman. Looks worth chancing despite only 2 places
425 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Glor Na Mara, 7/2 Pathfork, 5/1 Samuel Morse, 6/1 Robin Hood, 7/1 Longhunter, 8/1 High Ruler, 16/1 Rudolf Valentino.
Pathfork the market mover here in a race the market believes will be dominated by the front 2 - only 2 places
450 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Jehanbux, 100/30 Bloodsweatandtears, 4/1 Introvert, 6/1 Titus Two, 7/1 Orientalist, 8/1 Las Verglas Star, 20/1 Silken Thoughts,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Las Verglas Star is the only one proven on a soft surface. Assuming conditions remain good or thereabouts, JEHANBUX will be expected to confirm course running with Introvert. |
8 down to 7 runners and the hannon/Hughes Jehanbux is interesting if still 3 places
515 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Squall, 5/1 Medicinal Compound, 6/1 Raqeeb, 13/2 Bin Shamardal, Tukitinyasok, 8/1 Master Of Dance, 9/1 Shethoughtshewas, 25/1 Koo And The Gang.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This can go to SQUALL. |
8 runners and 3 places
530 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Phrase, 3/1 Pluirin, 5/1 Bryanstown, 7/1 Siul Alainn, 8/1 Moriches, Pinnk, 10/1 Melodie D´Amour, 12/1 Annakeen, 14/1 Cailin Gaillimh, Erins Gal, 16/1 Sweeterthanheaven, 33/1 Brosna Tied.
I would usually leave big field Irish maidens alone but Phrase is Weld/Smullen and one of 2 under 10/1
SHORTLIST
1pm Spartak Moscow v Tomsk 1.37 home - preference for the over 1.5 goals here if historical form is a good indicator. Includes both teams and tradeable if a reasonably early goal.
2pm - FC Copenhagen v Lyngby - 1.33 home - in running - argument for Copenhagen looks compelling
- scored 2 or more in 4 of their 5 matches this season
- won 9 and drawn 1 0-0 in head to heads scoring 4 4 times and 3 4 times
- won 4 and drawn 1 in 5 matches this season
3pm - Arsenal v Blackpool - 1.17 home v- sub 1.2 so far in the Premiership equals 10 goals scored and none conceded. Blackpool should be brought down to earth with a thump.
5pm - Volyn v Shakhtar - 1.22 away - newcomers to Ukrainian top flight should find life difficult against perennial champions.
730pm - Barcelona v Sevilla -1.31 home - yes only some mickey mouse Super Cup but this is Barca's first competitive match at home. they lost 3-1 because they put out the Barcelona under 12's in the first leg. Goals should be apparent tonight as this 3-1 deficit needs breaching and the barca coach wants to win the lot. A strong Barca squad tonight should win with ease. 1.14 over 1.5 goals tells you goals are expected.
745pm - Ajax v Roda JC - 1.19 home - Suarez back from suspension? Should be exciting if the 35 goal man returns ( bear in mind Ajax have scored 6 without him in 2 games)
205 SANDOWN - 3 places on offer and 6 runners makes this a 50/50 probability race.
Concerns ?
This is a listed race and the "outsider" is 12/1 indicating none can be readily dismissed - Seta and Decorative would be shortlsited -their place only prices tell you this is competitive ( 1.42 and 1.6)
210 NEWTON ABBOTT - Beyond has a great chance of placing once more, and at 1.11 that chance is reflected in the place market. Alas it is McCoy onboard, and whenever he has been on a one a day selection , he has conjured up a non placed horse ( 5 from 6 I believe)
235 SANDOWN - one of those lucky dip races - I would shortlist Native Khan, Roayh ( perhaps an additional tick with Dettori in superb weekly form) , Measuring Time and Stentorian. 3 opf these should place, one will not - that is the conundrum!!
The market has Native Khan clear in the place market with Stentorian nearly evens to place. I would chance Roayh under Dettori based solely on the jockey's imperious form of late.
I stress again it is lucky dip and I have made my choice. Yours may differ.
Play the probabilities!
I have left the 2 the place races alone.
SPECULATIVE MULTIPLE
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Possible spoilers? Falkirk game/QPR/Everton games. Falkirk as this is lower league Scottish. QPR as it has historically been tight with Scunny . Everton as they have not convinced just yet . Has a good chance though.
Safer acca would include all shortlisted teams with perhaps Ajax or Arsenal as the back teams and lay the opponents in the others
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
2pm - FC Copenhagen v Lyngby - 1.33 home - am I missing something here or is this too obvious? Last season Copenhagen won all bar one match at home. Head to heads an outstanding record ( one niggle 0-0 cup match 2008) Scored 4 or 3 8 times in last 10 games against today's opponents. In running - 1.2 over 1.5 goals an alternative - any unquoted is the lowest correct score currently and the asians at +1.5 to +2 augur well.
3pm - Arsenal v Blackpool - 1.17 home - fairly unimpressive against Liverpool in their first match, hopefully a different animal at home and will continue the strong performance of 1.2 and lower odds teams so far this premiership.
730pm - Barcelona v Sevilla -1.31 home - CAVEAT - bet based on team news although , as this is the first competitive game at the Nou Camp, we should expect a strong Barca team and a redressing of the 3-1 first leg loss.
745pm - Ajax v Roda JC - 1.19 home - the return of Suarez would add confidence to this bet ( although Ajax look in good health without him in their first 2 games - he is, though, a 35 goals last season man)
235 SANDOWN - I would see this as the safer of the 2 Sandown races in which to focus upon a place only horse. This should revolve around the 4 horses under 14/1 in the betting forecast. There are 6 horses in total and 3 places - a luck dip quite simply with Native Khan, Roayh , Measuring Time and Stentorian the principles. Tough to chose though. The solid fav has only had the one run, albeit a winning run. Roayh would be a very tentative choice. A race where I would look to decide at race time via the market but if forced now, faith in Dettori and a horse placed in last 4 runs. Only has half the field to beat to place, 2 of which are 14/1 and 25/1.
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