I cannot split these and do acknowledge that when playing 2 places, we have to be spot on, and when playing friendlies, we have to understand the competitive edge is gone and there is no onus to win.
There is nowhere near enough money yet in the 635 FFOS LAS place market and I would hope there would be enough liquidity at 1.12 nearer race time.
There are no liquidity concerns with the football as 1.12 is available with online bookies ( it is tempting to go 1.17 over 1.5 goals)
***** ONE A DAY - 730pm - England U21 v Uzbekistan U21 - Back England in the match odds at 1.12 - more liquidity than 635 race as available with bookies.*****
I will try to do an update for 635 FFOS LAS as it is before this match to confirm the evening price and whether the betting market remains strong for Florestans Match. If I am near a PC, I will update by 615pm
Please do personally look out for team news for Leeds and QPR as this could allow a bet for these teams tonight in the Carling Cup.
The 2 mentioned in the evening message both obliged but one was an odds on shot in a handicap and the other came 7th out of 9 in his most recent hurdles outing and despite the strong probabilities in that race, looked a risky conveyance over hurdles again.
Perhaps I should become a Swedish Division 2 expert as both teams scored at least 2 against the other , bringing in the over 1.5 goals bet .
Today sees some likely football candidates. I only hope that the horse racing improves upon yesterday's terrible maiden strewn race cards.
5pm - Slovenia U21 v FYR Macedonia U21 - 1.46 home -international friendly so bear that in mind. Macedonia have lost their last 4 and drawn 1 0-0 away but those matches were in 2009 - not in running and no head to heads
715pm - Bosnia v Qatar - 1.44 home - in running - +1 and +1.5 asian handicaps signals a 1 or 2 goal home win if Bosnia play to their optimum. No collateral form makes it difficult to guage any potential gulf in class. This is another friendly and I cannot see Qatar winning IF Bosnia play their first team.
730pm - England U21 v Uzbekistan U21 - 1.12 home - Psycho's charges. - This is a friendly and England Jr. have only had one match in 2010 - a 2-1 home loss to Greece. Prior to that they won all of their home matches . Uzbeks have played one match in 2010 against Slavia Prague B and lost 3-1 - they don't seem to have played that regularly prior to that. Beware a 1-1 draw for the under 20's when they played them, but under 21's have a number of premier league stars. 1.17 over 1.5 goals is of interest if the asian handicap is accurate.
745pm - Chesterfield v Middlesbrough - 2.12 away - wee Gordon Strachan is already under pressure after a solitary game and this Carling Cup match may be the tonic he needs? BUT on the same week as internationals, Boro are missing key personnel,
745pm - Doncaster v Accrington S - 1.47 home - championship v league 2 in this carling cup match. Unmanaged in running market.
745pm - Glentoran v Rangers - 1.5 away - friendly - not in running and if they play a first team Rangers would look generous at 1.5 Illiquid market at present
745pm - Leeds v Lincoln - 1.34 home - Championship v League 2 - lost opening match at home in Championship 1-2 at the weekend - prior to that beat Wolves in a friendly 3-1 at home and won 4 at home consecutively.
Lincoln lost 2-1 away to Rotherham at the weekend. Team news important I feel as Leeds would consider staying in the Championship as a bigger priority than the Carling Cup? Leeds manager wants a win before the weekend Forest match so expect a strong squad?+1 to +2 in the asians. In running
745pm - Leicester v Macclesfield - 1.38 home - Championship v league 2 - in running. 3-2 at the weekend v Palace could signal a goals bet this evening? 1.23 over 1.5 goals. Macc drew 2-2 as well.
745pm - Partick v Berwick - 1.38 - Scottish Challenge Cup - 5-1 (2009) and 3-1 (2007) augur well for the home side in head to heads. Not in running - 4-0 drubbing for Partick at the weekend ( were down to 10 men)
745pm - QPR v Port Vale - 1.43 home - head to heads back in 2006 may be redundant. Championship v League 2 - 4-0 win for QPR at home at the weekend means they will be buzzing. - in running
745pm - Swansea v Barnet - 1.45 home - another Championship v League 2 - in running unmanaged markets.
1am - USA v Brazil - 1.88 away - overs? Team news vital given European Leagues begin at the weekend.
TENNIS
Western + Southern Open 2010
4pm - Arn v Wickmayer - 1.16 - 104 v 16th in the WTA rankings
HORSERACING
230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sagamore, 7/4 Pilote Celebre, 2/1 Short Break, 25/1 Present Story, 50/1 Fluter Phil, 66/1 Transinski.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A decent AW maiden for the time of year. PILOTE CELEBRE's Chepstow form has worked out well and he is preferred to Short Break. |
Only 3 under 66/1 in the live market means this maiden should be a 3 horse race for 2 places.
Sagamore is up in trip today and judged by odds on status, is expected to be very competitive. The other 2 main protagonists have both run at 1 mile 4 furlongs.
Simple lucky dip race -one of thee front 3 will not place, 2 will.
315 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 There´s No Panic, 4/1 Safe Catch, 13/2 Bachley Gale, 8/1 Runaway Harry, 10/1 Powerfullbeat, 20/1 Kings Riches, 33/1 Wadham Hill, 100/1 The Wee Midget, Yes Minister.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Heavy rain could put a spanner in the works but otherwise this looks best left to THERE'S NO PANIC. |
Fav now 4/9 for the Nicholls yard after 18 length win last time out.
2 out of 2 for today's jockey on him.
Need to pay attention to the weather as Diomed hints at.
500 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rare Tern, 4/1 Hayek, 6/1 Amity, 8/1 D´Urberville, Verity Lane, 14/1 Nelson´s Bounty, Saigon Kitty, 25/1 Tt´s Dream.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There is more to come from RARE TERN over this trip and she looked on a good mark when clear of the third at Folkestone last week. |
Huge market move for Nelsons Bounty into 3/1 2nd favourite under Tony Culhane.
550 NOTTS
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Chilly Filly, Lajidaal, 9/2 Fantino, 6/1 Sierra Alpha, 7/1 Aurorian, 10/1 My Mate Max, 14/1 Daylami Dreams, 16/1 Dakiyah, 20/1 Raincoat.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LAJIDAAL looks handicapped on potential but he did win his maiden in the manner of a promising young stayer. |
7 runners now and Chilly filly of interest for me for the Fairley/Johnston combo. 3 places
635 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Florestans Match, 5/2 Brevity, 10/1 Imperial Pirouette, 14/1 Sugar Beet, 20/1 Miskin Diamond, 50/1 Minety Lass, 66/1 Lettering.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Brevity should improve for her introductory fourth at Glorious Goodwood but will have her work cut out to match strides with FLORESTANS MATCH. |
The market at present has this as a 2 horse race with the 2 under 20/1 and Florestans Match with form of 322 looks obvious - 2 places so will be a decent enough place price but these late season maidens have produced some shocks.Only one debutant and I can see Jim Crowley getting another place for Florestans.
SHORTLIST
730pm - England U21 v Uzbekistan U21 - 1.12 home - under 20's drew 1-1 in a competitive fixture against this country but 21's are far superior names wise. A match to take seriously as the only warm up before the European Championship qualifiers.
745pm - Leeds v Lincoln - 1.34 home - Championship v League 2 - positive noises from Leeds boss leads me to consider this match. IDEAL - check team news.
745pm - QPR v Port Vale - 1.43 home - team news vital - 4-0 weekend win makes first team QPR clear favs but Warnock may rest some of first team.
Western + Southern Open 2010
4pm - Arn v Wickmayer - 1.16 - 104 v 16th in the WTA rankings - the rankings difference should be the clincher here.
230 LINGFIELD - if focussing just on the market , Sagamore would be the choice among the 3 likely to fight for the 2 places. 1.2 to place signals that this is a difficult choice between 3 well matched horses.
315 NA - 9 runners , 3 are 33/1 and bigger leaving 6 who should fight it out for the 3 places. There's no panic is 4/9 in the betting - I don't know about rain etc so will have to just go with the market.
1.12 to place in a highly illiquid market - Mahon is 2 from 2 over hurdles with this horse.
635 FFOS LAS - Florestans Match looks obvious win material in what could be a match up with Brevity if the market is accurate.
2 places and 1.12 to place
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
730pm - England U21 v Uzbekistan U21 - 1.12 home - given the context of this match ( despite friendly credentials), England will take this seriously and should win by 2 or 3. Over 1.5 goals is 1.17 which bumps the match odds up a tad and if the asian handicap quotes are accurate, this should come in .
No head to heads so we have the unknown factor but England's team is littered with Premier League starlets.
Leeds and QPR are very tempting but TEAM NEWS is key here as this is the Carling Cup. Of the 2, I would opt for Leeds given their gaffer's very positive words at the Leeds website.
635 FFOS LAS - as you know with evening racing, the ideal is to check the market nearer to race time as a lot can happen in the interim and usually a very early betting market can hide late market moves or even withdrawals.
As things stand, Florestans Match's form of 322 were all in class 4 maidens, all in races of 11 or 12, all over today's distance, and all featuring today's jockey.
The market points to only 2 under 20/1
I am reminded of the likes of Advertisement though who looked nailed on in a maiden, had the form in the book, yet finished 4th ( analysis of race did point perhaps to the ground)
I think, though, that Florestan has no ground, or potential ground, concerns and is solid.
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