*****ONE A DAY - 3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - back Chelsea at 1.13 match odds. Hope they can continue this strong home goalscoring form against a team they scored 7 against last season*****
Bad research yesterday. Pana's match was being held behind closed doors. Hence the home advantage evaporated . I could not find this little piece of info anywhere. The type of bet explained yesterday is also useless for this service as the 0-0 market is not liquid enough ( as I found out when unable to back 0-0 at a decent enough price - it was as low as 10.5 at the off - not quite the 14 I mentioned in the blog)
Price also rose from 1.28 to 1.37 for Pana which alerted me to some problem.
I should also have insisted upon trading as it was the first match of the season as this would have been the result
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The equivalent of a 1.15 back bet sits comfortably with me. Trading is 2nd nature to me and should have been insisted upon.
All of this and Piceno won with ease. Disappointing.
Some solace elsewhere if anyone decided to lay Galway at 1.19 ( drew 1-1) but this is a one a day so disappointment in final selection
FOOTBALL
115pm - Amkar v Rostov - 1.28 home - 5 1-0's in their last 6 games really do not scream at us to back Amkar at 1.28. Ditto with head to heads which change between teams as far as victories are concerned.
Rostov have been in good enough form recently. +1.5 to + 2 in the asian handicaps. I simply cannot see, from a form perspective, where this 1.28 for Amkar comes from ( yes only 2 games into the season but Rostov have not shown any weakness recently.) In running .
2pm - FC Kiisto v KajHa - 1.37 home - contrasting form
Home team Kiisto Vaas have a home record of 7-3-0 (W-D-L) for their 10 home games this season, 24 points from a possible 30. That's a home points average of 2.40 compared to 1.60 for all games this season. Kiisto Vaas's recent points average is 1.50, 9 points from 6 games 2-3-1 (W-D-L) Kiisto Vaas's last 10 league games record reads LWDWDWDWDL (LWDWDWDWDL) while their last 10 home league games read WDWDWWWWWD (WDWDWWWWWD).
Away team KajHa have an away record of 1-2-7 (W-D-L) for their 10 away games this season, 5 points from a possible 30. That's an away points average of 0.50 compared to 0.80 for all games this season. KajHa's recent points average is 0.83, 5 points from games; KajHa's last 10 league games record reads WDLLLDLLWD (WDLLLDLLWD) while their last 10 away league games read LDLDLLLLLW (LDLDLLLLLW).
Kajha have won most recent head to head 1-0 and Kiisto have won last 3 home 1-0, 1-0, 2-1 so tight game in prospect?
230pm - Schalke v Hannover - 1.42 home - 2-1 away loss to Hamburg for Schalke and Hannover won 2-1 at home. Far too early in the season to garner any form lines. Last season hannover only won 4 away matches against bottom 5 sides. Schalke have won the last 3 home head to heads. April 2010 saw 4-2 Hannover win. Goals bet safer here? 1.27 over 1.5 goals for this in running match?
230pm - W Bremen v FC Koln - 1.42 - where Werder Bremen go, goals usually follow thanks to a Keeganesque footballing style. 4-1 away loss to Hoffenheim continues the over 2.5 goals in Werder matches.BUT 2010 and 2009 head to heads are 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 (koln home win) - bogie team for Werder? With Bayern losing yesterday there is some incentive for Werder. IN RUNNING - perhaps have a break from over 2.5 goals today given the head to heads.
3pm - Blackpool v Fulham - 2.34 away - astonishing price for Fulham here against a team exposed by Arsenal last weekend as poor. Blackpool exposed Wigan as poor and I don't think that match is typical of what Blackpool will achieve in the Premiership. They have a reputation for goals which may serve over 2.5 goals backers. Fulham have drawn 2 so far including 2-2 against United. I suppose their 2.34 away quote is down to the fact that they were horrendous away from home last season. They won only 1 match away last season. New manager this season. 10 goals in 2 matches for Blackpool - over 1.5 goals in this match? 1.34 BUT asian handicaps point at a very tight match +0.5 and +1 . Still I could risk a Blackpool lay.
3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.13 home - 6-0 and, erm, 6-0 for Chelski so far this season. Head to heads 7-0, 2-0, 1-2, 2-1 all to Chelsea. Asians start at +2 so this game, from the market's perspective, is over already.
3pm - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.22 - Rangers would hope that Kenny Miller continues his great forward play again today - Old Firm usually reliable sub 1.25 - St Johnstone won 4-1 in their last league encounter and surely this must be banished today? St Johnstone have been tight of late. Rangers are in good health with 2-1 home win and 3-0 away win ( well done Kenny Miller in what was a tight match for a long time)
3pm - Redditch Utd v Telford - 1.35 away - superb August for Telford but again the head to heads give mixed messages. Should we go with recent form over this head to head stats? REdditch have lost all 4 matches in August, and conceded 9 and 5 in 2 matches. Considering Telford have scored 5 twice so a goals bet here? - only match odds available alas on betfair but do check Bet365.
3pm - Tottenham v Wigan - 1.28 - will there be any hangover from superb midweek performance for Spuds against a Wigan side who I suspect will become increasingly defensive with each consecutive loss. Remember last season those anomolous results for Spuds against Hull and Wolves at home. Has this been ironed out? Spurs have drawn 1 and won 1 and are priced to beat a bedraggled Wigan well. Spurs have won 3 and lost 1 1-0 in last 4 head to heads.
Wigan have conceded 10 in the league in 2 matches so this is an ideal chance for the Spuds. Will they be affected by mid week emotions in Champions League? +1 to +2 asians are a little cautious.
445pm - FC Basel v Neuchatel Xamax - 1.3 home - over 2.5 goals in all head to heads . Basel have scored 3 minimum in last 3 head to heads.
Xamax beat Young Boys 1-0 away recently which is somewhat anomolous but bear in mind Young Boys might have been thinking about Champions League clash with Spurs?Luzen is the only anamolous result for Basel but Xamax have also lost 4-2 to Luzen so perhaps Luzen are in good order this season.Basel won their other 2 by 3 goals ( that number again)
530pm - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.16 home - the Hamsters really impressed with their emphatic 1-0 Cup win against new to the Football League Oxford United......NOT and are likely to be exposed again against a good-goalscoring-form Man Utd - Fergie has said United must win their home matches, and equally, must win anyway with Chelsea likely to win again. West Ham have lost 2, conceding 3 at each stage ( which ties in with the 1.16 United home quote) Asians start at +2.
630pm - Iraklis v Olympiakos - 1.5 away - Panathanaikos drew as we know and their likely market rivals for the title can get one up on them already . Not for me today as 1-0 Iraklis win last time in head to heads .
7pm - Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem - 1.32 home - have scored 4 in their 2 home matches, 3 in one away match and 0-0 in another . 2 1-1 away draws for Zulte Waregem should sound a slight note of caution - 0-0 in head to heads in 2010 again keeps that draw theme .Anderlecht have won last 3 home head to heads though.NOT in running.
730pm - CFR Cluj v Pandurii - 1.4 home - last 4 meetings have been 1-0's and 1-1 between these 2 - no thanks!!
745pm - Roma v Cesena - 1.32 home -first game of the season and guess what? Yes, promoted side away to likely title contenders ( see Marseille v Caen!!!) . Should be a home win for Roma. Nothing to go on bar reputation and what the market makers think. +1 to +2
915pm - Benfica v Setubal - 1.25 home - lost their first home match of the season at similar odds and really need a victory or the title may be diminishing this early in the season. 2 2-1 losses for Benfica is crisis time already . Porto and nacional are the only 2 sides with 100% records. Benfica MUST win and hope to replicate their awesome home form of last season. Benfica won 2 of last 3 head to heads ( 1-1 draw , 8-1 win and 4-0 away win for Benfica) - 2-1's for Benfica could signal over 1.5 goals ? 1.21 in odds includes both sides and covers any shocks.
Soft ground at Goodwood and Newmarket is offputting today.
145 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Codemaster, 4/1 Tijori, 5/1 Blue Tiger´s Eye, 11/2 Elusivity, 7/1 State Of Mind, 16/1 Cinderkamp, St Augustine, 20/1 Good Timin´, 25/1 Bouggatti, Granny Anne, 50/1 Aquilifer, Monsieur Jamie, 66/1 Munro´s Dragon,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Ability to act on a soft surface has to be taken on trust with most of these, the sole exception being Bouggatti who probably needs further. If CODEMASTER improves as anticipated from his Salisbury debut second he is likely to be hard to beat. Elusivity may prove the pick of the others, |
Blue Tiger's Eye is now 6/4 all red fav. A debutant in this maiden for Godolphin - Ted Durcan onboard.
155 BEVERLEY
| DIOMED VERDICT: PANDORO DE LAGO and Sahafh have similar profiles in that they both cost six figures, represent powerful stables and have shown promise on both outings. Preference is for Richard Fahey's filly. |
Only 5 under 25/1 here the ones to concentrate on? Question times is a very interesting market mover into near joint favouratism. And it is a CHappel-Hyam horse ridden by the excellent Joe Fanning. Another debutant in a maiden fillies race.
435 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Clonard Lad, 9/4 Dark Prospect, 6/1 Henro Boy, 8/1 Riverstown, 12/1 Gala Dancer, Rhum And Coke, 14/1 Fairwood Massini, 20/1 El Romo, 25/1 Son Of My Heart, 33/1 Claragh Native, Glorach, 50/1 Ladinsky, Nephin View, 66/1 Adropaupep, Black Smyths Land, Hilton Honey, Revivalism, Sir Bill Nich.
Faith in Ruby riding again for Willie Mullins on what is now an odds on favourite?
540 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Morache Music, 11/2 Sextons House, 6/1 Local Singer, Waking Warrior, 10/1 Jerrazzi, 16/1 Morermaloke, 20/1 Reginald Claude, Speedfit Girl, 25/1 Cocohatchee, Touch Of Red, 100/1 One Cool Chick.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MORACHE MUSIC has created a very good impression on both starts and makes plenty of appeal |
Price gapper and winner on good to soft. Soft ground at Windsor ( 3rd course with soft ground)
605 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Rheinland, 3/1 Star Neuville, 9/2 Never Before, 5/1 Accordingtojodie, 11/2 Tuskar, 8/1 One Fine Morning, 10/1 Sir Betsy, 16/1 Macklycuddy, 20/1 A Lou Ela.
Accordingtojodie now 6/5, all red and strongly fancied for guess who? Yes Mullins and Mullins.
Bumper
620 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alaskan Spirit, 11/8 Marston Moor, 9/1 Red Presence.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ALASKAN SPIRIT sets a useful standard on his 6l win off 81 in a Hamilton nursery last time and is readily preferred to AW maiden winner Marston Moor. |
They worked well yesterday these 3 horse races for 2 places. A flat race and ground not a problem. Follow the market? 2 will place, 1 will not.
SHORTLIST
2pm - HB Koge v Hobro - 1.36 home - this looks like a team who can score against a team conceding loads. 4/9 over 2.5 goals at Bet365 is NOT TRADEABLE. So a 2-0 final score ( whilst winning for a trader) is a losing bet.
230pm - Schalke v Hannover - 1.42 home - Schalke have the advantage in home head to heads but over 1.5 goals at 1.27 may be the bet to include both sides? ( 4-2 Hannover win last time they met) TRADEABLE as IN RUNNING
3pm - Blackpool v Fulham - 2.34 away -I said it before - an astonishing price for a team managed by Sparky. Poor away form precedes them. May be worth laying Blackpool and trade if Fulham score first or lead at any stage?
3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.13 home - 2 6-0's and 7-0 against Stoke last time they met ( similar to 8-0 v Wigan last time they met) -obvious chance for Chelski at home.1.14 over 1.5 goals includes both sides and does not nail colours to any mast.
3pm - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.22 - 4-1 St Johnstone shock win last time out. At home, Rangers expected to return to winning ways. 1.5 over 2.5 goals includes both sides ( would prefer over 1.5 goals) Kenny Miller in great form for Rangers and we could see a different animal today . IN RUNNING UNMANAGED MARKET
530pm - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.16 home - we are looking for obvious bets and here is another. United have scored 5 so far this season in 2 matches and Fergie has insisted United must win all home matches. Likely to be playing catch up with Chelsea come 445pm adds to the significance of this match with Arsenal playing a tricky away encounter against Blackburn.
7pm - Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem - 1.32 home - we have 2 sequences ( albeit in their early stages) 1) Anderlecht score 4 goals in each of their home matches 2) Zulte Waregem have drawn 2 away matches 1-1 . NOT IN RUNNING. Which will prevail?
915pm - Benfica v Setubal - 1.25 home - 1.21 over 1.5 goals is worth a shout given Benfica are faltering ( 2 2-1 losses)
155 BEVERLEY - one of those courses not overtly affected by ground concerns. This maiden race seems to revolve around 5 horses for 3 places with 3 closely matched.
Pandora De Lago 5/2 - 42 form
Sashafh - 5/2 ( 2/1 in places) - 32 form
Question Time - 11/4 ( in from likely 10/1) - debutant
I am sure the places may revolve around these 3 and it is optimistic to assume the front 3 will be these 3 - if only. All 3 are around 1.5 to place
435 GALWAY - Clonard Lad - Ruby to deliver on the big stage? Illiquid betting markets
605 GALWAY -market check nearer the off. Accordingtojodie is Mullins/Mullins market mover.
620 REDCAR -3 horses and 2 places - to go with the market? Alaskan Spirit 1.13 and Marston Moor 1.23 ( illiquid place only markets)
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
2pm - HB Koge v Hobro - 1.36 home -if only there was a goals option on Betfair. Looks like scorers v conceders here. Concern with the weakness of the Division ( which can lead to inconsistency in results) - might just be worth risking Koge. NOT IN RUNNING so dangerous if 1-0 for a concerted period but I do expect goals.
3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.13 home -could be an easy way out for one a day today? 12 goals in 2 games this season and remember last 5 home games last season ( 4-1 west ham , 7-1 Aston Villa, 1-0 Bolton , 7-0 Stoke, 8-0 Wigan) Have already played Wigan and won 6-0, and priced to beat Stoke comprehensively today.
530pm - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.16 - West Ham have conceded 3 in their last 3 matches. 3-0 and 4-0 wins for Man Utd last season against the Hammers pretty much in line with 1.16 odds.
915pm - Benfica v Setubal - 1.25 home - over 1.5 goals at 1.21 includes both sides. TRADEABLE
SPECULATIVE MULTIPLE
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Flies in the ointment? Werder Bremen match ( 1-0's in head to heads, always a worry Koln could score the solitary goal) Very speculative and a chance to hedge the in running matches .
605 GALWAY - Accordingtojolie looks well backed and Spotlight mentions to " note the market" - a bumper race so a flat race and a look at the market nearer the off but the Mullins/Mullins combo must be respected here.
Soft ground means I am not willing, again, to involve myself in ground , especially with a number of maidens ( young horses and ground conditions)
620 REDCAR - a chance in a flat race to chose one of the 2 market leaders and hope he does not get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race - no ground concerns here either.
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