The best probability race looks to be the 155 Hamilton and we have 3 choices here
1) back Calypso Magic to place at 1.06, take the medicine, safe in the knowledge the weekend will bring forth many selections) He is one of 2 under 25/1 in a 4 horse race for 2 places and is battered into 1/3
2) as this is a 4 horse race for 2 places, and there are only 2 horses under 25/1, why do we not place back the 2nd favourite Cape of Dance, at better place only price of 1.23. This is, after all, a Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning horse who has had the one run and is open to natural improvement. His opponents for a likely 2nd place includes a newcomer Moonboughie who could be anything ( but the betting market suggests otherwise) and who was last on his debut in a class 6 maiden on 4th August
3) we can back Calypso Magic to WIN ONLY at 1.33
*****ONE A DAY 155 HAMILTON - back Calypso Magic to place only***** - the safer option alas but those speculators who have faith in the Johnston/Fanning combination can hope or back Calypso to win only ( I would trade this latter option)
Hopefully this should be trouble free this afternoon and I was very tempted to try to retain the 1.2 + prices by speculating on 2nd favourites to place. I know the weekend will unearth plenty of better prices so am happy to remain patient and hope this is no Squires Gate.
Besiktas won 2-0 for another accurate asian handicap market.
FOOTBALL
430pm - Seinajoen JK v FC Korsholm - 1.3 home
The exciting Finland C Kakk League which might just live up to its name
Home team SJK Seinaj have a home record of 3-4-1 (W-D-L) for their 8 home games this season, 13 points from a possible 24. That's a home points average of 1.62 compared to 1.33 for all games this season. SJK Seinaj's recent points average is 0.83, 5 points from 6 games 1-2-3 (W-D-L) SJK Seinaj's last 10 league games record reads WWWDDLDLWL (WWWDDLDLWL) while their last 10 home league games read WLDLWDWDDW (WLDLWDWDDW).
Away team Korsholm have an away record of 0-1-7 (W-D-L) for their 8 away games this season, 1 points from a possible 24. That's an away points average of 0.12 compared to 0.28 for all games this season. Korsholm's recent points average is 0.17, 1 points from games; Korsholm's last 10 league games record reads LLLLLDLLLL (LLLLLDLLLL) while their last 10 away league games read WLLLLLLLDL (WLLLLLLLDL).
It would seem that the away side are dire, hence the 1.3 for the home side. Only 1-0 win for Seinaj in 2010 head to head.
But Seinaj have scored 2 or more in their last 4 home matches , winning 2 and drawing 2.
Korsholm have lost their last 3 HOME matches 2-1, 9-0, 4-3 so there's usually goals in their games.
Ratings of 976 v 314 tell of the apparent gulf. Only match odds market is available on Betfair. I would have liked to have approached this match from a goals angle. Very illiquid betfair market as you would expect from a Finnish C League match.
745pm - FC Basel v Sheriff Tiraspol - 1.45 home - Champions League qualifier this one so will be ,logically, competitive. Both sides were impressive in their last Champions league qualifying round, beating Debrecen and Dinamo Zagreb, 2 decent enough yardsticks.
Basel went 4-1 down at home in their last match which may have been a precursor to this important tie. They are strong favourites at home this evening and prior to the 4-1 defeat on 14th August, scored 3 or more in their last few home matches.
Sheriff kept it tight in both legs last time - 1-1 and 1-1 home and away, going through on penalties so that is something to be wary of. Perhaps a lay of Sheriff the better option as the opponents in the Champions League get progressively tougher.
745pm - W Bremen v Sampdoria - the usual concession and scoring of goals in a Werder Brememn match? +0.5 and +1 on the asian handicaps signals a potentially tight affair which I suppose we could have predicted with Italian opposition and such an important match.
1.31 is a high price for a Werder Bremen over 1.5 goals market which may signal -not today!
I enjoyed York on the box yesterday and loved the ride on Rip Van Winkle to just get up on the line - such fine margins.
130 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Candys Girl, 9/4 Glen´s Diamond, 7/2 Boundaries, 7/1 Lady Platinum Club, 10/1 Itzakindamagic, 20/1 Henrys Gift, 100/1 Black Annis Bower, Pinotage.| DIOMED VERDICT: Cheveley Park entrant CANDYS GIRL gets the nod over Glen's Diamond. |
Maidens can be hit and miss especially where 2 years olds are concerned but I am taken by Boundaries' form of 24222 including a 2nd to Dingle View latest
This is an 8 runner race - 3 places - 2 horses are 100/1 or bigger , one is 25/1 currently which hopefully leaves 5 for 3 places. Candys Girl has has just the one run but is a strong market leader at 11/10 in places. There are only 3 horses under 14/1 here - shall we assume these 3 fight out the finish? Will Boundaries continue the impressive placed form?
155 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Calypso Magic, 9/4 Cape Of Dance, 16/1 Moonboughie, 33/1 Ted´s Brother, 50/1 Littlepromisedland.| DIOMED VERDICT: CALYPSO MAGIC is very hard to oppose. |
Like Advertisement in a recent maiden, this favourite has been battered into 1/3 favouratism in a race where only 2 are under 25/1
Cape of dance is the Johnston/Fanning horse and of obvious interest and could be the value placer if we assume the 2 under 25/1 will fight this out. Moonboughie is the fly in the ointment being a debutant.
350 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Interdiamonds, 6/4 Simonside, 9/2 Rosewin,| DIOMED VERDICT: With Rosewin, progressive last year, below her best on her last two outings, this could rest between SIMONSIDE and Interdiamonds. Slight preference is for the former, who should appreciate the return to turf and is capable of going well from this mark. |
3 horses and 2 places - simple probability! Interdiamonds is Ffrench/Johnston and of obvious interest personally.
405 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Face The Problem, 7/2 Choose Wisely, 8/1 Cadeaux Pearl, Julius Geezer, 10/1 Arctic Feeling, 12/1 Black Moth, 14/1 Leiba Leiba, New Planet, Pabusar, 20/1 Bathwick Bear, Foghorn Leghorn, 50/1 On The High Tops, 100/1 Abzolutely.| DIOMED VERDICT: Molecomb third Choose Wisely has to be respected but the highly progressive FACE THE PROBLEM looked Group class when thrashing the opposition under top weight in a Thirsk nursery last time and is the one to beat. |
faced the problem the obvious candidate here, but a huge market move for Pabusar into 2nd fav ( may be the Pricewise factor I don't know)
515 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Luxurious, 3/1 File And Paint, 5/1 Praise Be, 6/1 Ideal, 10/1 Chrysanthemum, 33/1 Rivers Edge, 50/1 Flymont.O'Brien clan on a possible Ballydoyle improver Luxurious.
Only 2 places though
540 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Destiny´s Dancer, 3/1 Gulf Punch, 10/1 Doyenne Dream, Glen Lass, 25/1 A P Ling, 33/1 Keep Silent, 66/1 Banco Busto, Mini Max.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a straightforward task for DESTINY'S DANCER (nap), who can again finish ahead of main rival Gulf Punch. |
8 down to 7 runners and only only 3 under 25/1 makes this hurdle race of interest.
800 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Fascination, 9/4 Best Intent, 6/1 Astound, 16/1 Cotton King, 40/1 Kalligal, 66/1 Derby Desire.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FASCINATION, runner-up over 1m4f on her last couple of starts, gives the impression this drop in trip may be ideal, at least for the time being, and she can go one better. Best Intent isn't progressing but looks the main danger on the figures. |
Fav is a " six figure purchase" and surely must get close soon - 2 2nds in last 2 races.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
The football, which has been the mainstay of late, looks less than solid this evening. Dare we trust Finnish C Kakk league football? FC Basel lost 4-1 recently at home ( pre champions league nerves?) and are short priced to prevail at home in the Champions League this evening against Sheriff. But Sheriff could park the bus as they did against Dinamo Zagreb before going through on penalties.
There are 10.5 to lay which covers the draw and is the equivalent of a 1.10 back bet
130 CARLISLE
Only 3 under 14/1 here and 2 fancies in Candy Girl ( only one run though but the market likes this one) and my personal pick Boundaries ( form of 24222 is consistent and a good 2nd last time out to Dingle View)
1.19 to place for once raced Candy Girl and 1.31 for Boundaries
155 HAMILTON - Calypso Magic is quite obvious here as the 1.06 to place tells us. 1.34 in the win only market, this is an excellent probability race - a 50/50 race where 4 horses are fighting for 2 places, and 2 horses are priced at 25/1 and 40/1
Do we take the 1.06 Calypso Magic in a weaker day today and just move on, or do we chance 2nd fav ( and only other horse under 25/1 , Cape of Dance for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning . priced at 1.23 to place.
Moonboughie is the spoiler here being, as he is, a debutant ( could be anything!!)
350 CARLISLE - quite simply this is 3 horses and 2 places. Lucky dip really. Any selection has a greater chance of placing in the first 2 than not!!
Rosewin is the outsider in the place and win markets. Interdiamonds would be my very tentative selection given this is a Mark Johnston horse and has Royston Ffrench onboard.
EVENING
Need the obligatory looks at the betting markets nearer race time
515 Killarney - only 2 places always risky in Irish maidens but Aiden O'Brien and son are on likely ballydoyle improver Luxurious.
540 HEREFORD - 7 runners and 3 places and only 3 under 25/1 makes this an ideal race were it not for the fact this is a hurdles race and of course they have to complete for us to get a pay out.
Very interesting race all the same.
800 FOLKSTONE - drop in trip for Fasination may be just the ticket in a race where only 3 are under 20/1 currently.
My judgement may be clouded by the fact that this horse is a six figure purchase, so there must be something to him.
Should be a 3 horse race for 2 places.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
155 HAMILTON
Extremely obvious this one - Calypso MAgic is 1.06 to place in a 4 horse race where only 2 are under 25/1. Dare we chance the only other horse under 25/1 (cape of dance) to place at a better price?
This should be a 3 horse race at least with Moonboughie the problem horse as debutant. I think Ted's Brother should play no part.
540 HEREFORD - great place only race with 3 horses under 25/1, 7 runners and 3 places still.
Destiny's dancer is obvious at 1.09 to place, but again, can we look at one of the other 2 under 25/1, Gulf Punch to place at better odds ( 1.25) - 3 debutants though to this hurdles sphere suggests we should, perhaps, play safe and stick with Destiny's Dancer.
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