Schalke had a rock solid pre season - will that be enough in their German Cup tie.
The markets in the Bayern match are illiquid alas as I would have liked to have enhanced the 1.03 odds with a goals bet. Betfair just does not have the money in the markets to give us proper odds. Over 2.5 goals at 1.07 is tempting given other similarly priced sides won 11-1 and 5-1 in this competition.
***** ONE A DAY - Update at 7pm for Ruby's return, Man Utd further discussion and another look at Aalen v Schalke*****
It's not over til the Geordie manager with a dodgy dutch accent sings! 1-1 draw in the 86th minute salvaged a minute later.
FOOTBALL
500pm - Germania Windeck v B Munich - 1.03 away - the ultra short prices have not let us down yet in this German Cup as far as goals is concerned - 11-1 and 5-1 yesterday and I suppose goals is safer than halftime/fulltime betting in cup competitions. IN RUNNING - over 3.5 goals might be a good option if the betfair market is accurate.
Only 4 friendlies for Bayern but we cannot garner much from them. Robben is out which may affect goals scoring?
630pm - Steaua Bucharest v Victoria Branesti - 1.28 home - no head to heads so we can only assume away side have been promoted.
Not in running and only about the 2nd or 3rd week of the season.
730pm - Aalen v Schalke - 1.2 - similar price to Wolfsburg and comfortably expected wins have tended to end up being single goal wins 2-1 generally, so a safer bet could be a neutral goals bet.
Schalke won all of their pre season matches so a first team and the right attitude should allow for victory here against this division 3 side. IN RUNNING
800pm - Man Utd v Newcastle - 1.22 - in fine fettle in the curtain raiser last week- last 2 head to heads 2-1 Utd and 1-1 draw. Newcastle set to frustrate no doubt. Asian handicaps are optimistic - +1.5 to +2.5 goals start for Newcastle.
1.22 over 1.5 goals includes both sides. IN RUNNING
2 all weather meetings make for another tricky Monday?
245 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Advertisement, 9/2 Delaware Dancer, Xeralda, 6/1 Shamarlane, 10/1 Sonia Girl, 33/1 Katmai River, 100/1 Riggs.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ADVERTISEMENT has easily the best form of those with experience and should be good enough, unless one of the newcomers - Delaware Dancer or Xeralda - proves well up to scratch. |
Nearly a one a day selection last time out when potential ground concerns led to 4th place. Strong market leader 4/9 - - - 7/1 - only 2 places and no Richard Hughes today.
Excuses for his last poor run or signs of being an untrustworthy betting proposition - that is the dilemma.
400 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mass Rally, 3/1 The Confessor, 9/2 Avenuesnalleyways, 5/1 Kakatosi, 8/1 Bohemian Melody, 20/1 Al Farahidi, 33/1 Quarrel, 50/1 Florio Vincitore, Rum King.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The drop back to 7f will suit MASS RALLY and he can pounce late on the progressive front-runners Avenuesnalleyways, The Confessor and Kakatosi. |
Only 5 horses are under 20/1 here and should vye for 3 places. Mass Rally is 9/4 at present and the one they like in the market. 1.43 to place.
630 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Managua, 6/4 Northern Acres, 6/1 Fasette, 14/1 Motirani, 40/1 Seek The Cash.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Managua and NORTHERN ACRES should dominate. |
Front 2 should dominate, says Diomed which should help place only decision making.
720 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Hail Caesar, 3/1 Soldier Bay, 9/2 Save My Blushes, 10/1 Lady Samphire, 12/1 Suprise Vendor, 14/1 Nordic Hawk, 20/1 All On Board, 33/1 Chipolini.
Welcome back Ruby!! On Hail Caesar for his Dad.
SHORTLIST
500pm - Germania Windeck v B Munich - 1.03 away - goals expected but similarly priced last year Bayern were 0-0 half time and only won 3-1.
Over 3.5 goals of interest if the market was a little more liquid.
730pm - Aalen v Schalke - 1.2 - excellent pre season and all the right noises from management and players of Schalke re this match. Opposition are 3rd division side.
800pm - Man Utd v Newcastle - 1.22 - Benfica and Marseille first game home favourites suffering shock defeats . Will United follow suit? Newcastle United may be without Andy Carroll this evening in a side which does not look strong enough to worry Manchester United. Carroll was one of the leading scorers last year and his potential absence might leave the Magpies light upfront.
245 WOLVES - a 5 furlong all weather maiden is not always the ideal but they do fancy Advertisement , now 1/3, to recompense a poor 4th last time out.
Debutants ( 2 ) are 2nd and 3rd favourites and could be flies in the ointment.
1.11 to place is generous enough ( 2 place maiden)
720 ROSCOMMON - Ruby returns on Hail Caesar for his Dad in an ideal place only race - 8 runners is the minimum for 3 places payout. Hail Caesar is odds on. There are only 3 horses under 12/1, and only 5 horses under 20/1
Of course I need not remind you that hurdles contestants need to actually complete for us to get paid out ( and this has to be assumed when betting)
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
The best bet of the day for me would be an enhanced bet on the Germania v Bayern Munich match -halftime/fulltime perhaps ( but 0-0 last year at half time for Bayern and Hamburg yesterday 1-1 halftime and 5-1 fulltime)
Over 2.5 goals is 1.07 but a bit skinny as this is not a goals competition - simply Bayern win, they go through. 1.03 quotes normally signals 5+ goal victories and this has been the case of late.
Aalen v Schalke is of interest but this is a Division 3 side at home in a sell out under floodlights - if this was in England, the ITV cameras would be there looking for a giant killing as it has all the ingredients.
On the plus side, Schalke are similarly profiled to Dortmund ( although interestingly shorter priced and Dortmund won their German Cup match 3-0) in that they have had an unblemished pre season and are really in top gear a week before the start of the league season.
Only lost 3 away in the Bundesliga last season and were 2nd to Bayern last season in the league.
Apart from Dortmund, a lot of these similarly priced sides this German Cup have struggled, relative to the gap in leagues, and won 2-1 or thereabouts.
Probably not one for the one a day today.
MAN UTD V NEWCASTLE - this is a must win already for United with Arsenal and Liverpool both drawing and Chelsea winning .
Already a small gap can develop with a home win.
Last season's opener was a Rooney 34th minute 1-0 against Brum, followed by an away 1-0 loss.
Newcastle drew away 1-1 with West Brom last season who were tonked by Chelsea - is this a reflection of the gulf in class ?
Do we trust Advertisement despite being battered now into 1/3. In my analysis of that race I did wonder why a short head 2nd over 6 furlongs horse was upped in trip.
Well today he is back down to 6 furlongs. The clincher? BUT 2 places , but also does have all weather experience.
Squires gate alas, is still raw in my memory and although this is an obvious opportunity, I am still worried about that sudden 12 length lapse into unplaced 4th last time was a sign of decline or just an anomoly?
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