29/8

Barcelona return today and while it is always risky to back a team away from home on the opening day of the season, I expect a comfortable win and this is my one a day selection

*****ONE A DAY - 6pm - Racing Santander v Barcelona - Back Barcelona in the match odds at 1.26 *****



Nice and easy for Chelsea - why complicate matters? Again, I missed out on doing a double with Man Utd!
FOOTBALL
1130am - De Graafschap v Ajax - 1.29 away - 9n goals scored already for Ajax - sole away game has been a draw where Ajax were 2-0 up. De Graaf won their sole home match 2-0 but lost 6-0 away to PSV. Although this was away, this is the kind of scoreline that Ajax should be capable of. Emphatic bias to Ajax in head to heads with goals a plenty. De Graaf promoted last season and goals galore scored by them. Perhaps safer is an over 1.5 goals bet although Ajax likely to be too much of a step up.
1200pm - Motherwell v Celtic - 1.63 away - last time Celtic were over 1.5 and away they won 1-0 and this is probably going to be replicated today. Head to heads 3 Celtic wins and a 0-0 draw. Likely to be as tight as the Inverness game as the odds are the same.
130pm - ADO Den Haag v PSV - 1.38 away - 12 goals scored by PSV already in 3 games. 2 losses for ADO Den Haag 3-1, 3-1 and a win 3-2 indicate goals again .1.19 over 1.5 goals. Again comprehensive wins for PSV in head to heads. ADO's last 3 games over 3.5 goals.
130pm - Twente v Utrecht - 1.53 home - 0-0, 0-0 and 3-0 away win v Arnhem , Twente are off and running. They need to win if they want to retain the title, especially at home. 2 0-0's in last 3 head to heads (2010 and 2009) and 3-2 home win inbetween. Twente MUST win at home.3-1 loss away, 3-1 and 3-0 home wins. The Feyenoord score should be within Twente's grasp if they play to their potential. Cover of 0-0 obvious bet.
230pm - Leverkusen v Mgladbach - 1.44 home - 1-0 away win against Dortmund a reasonable result for Leverkusen . 1-1 for Mgladbach. Bayer have won 3 home head to heads and included goals! Lost only one at home all last season augurs well for this. Mgladbach lost against all of top 6 ( Leverkusen 4th) last season and priced again to lose today. Goals an option. Over 1.5 goals 1.21 .
230pm - The New Saints v Bala Town - 1.28 home - head to heads too close - 1-0 win and 0-0 in 2010 and 2009 to entertain a bet.
300pm - Liverpool v West Brom - 1.32 home - drawn 1 and lost 1 albeit against top 5 sides. Chance to win at home today. I am not overtly confident with this Liverpool side however. 1-0 home win v Sunderland was great for West brom. +1.5 asian handicaps
330pm - AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior - 1.32 home - 2 1-1 draws and a 3-1 loss to PSV - AZ still are not what they used to be. Excelsior lost one and won 2 home 3-2 and 4-2 - looks like goals bet here incase AZ cannot muster a win. Excelsior concede and score. AZ lost 2 away head to heads but won easily 3 most recent home head to heads.
330pm - CSKA Moscow v Alania Vladikavkaz - 1.23 home
500pm - Fredrikstad v Follo - 1.32
500pm - Shakhtar v Illychivets - 1.09 home - only match odds available on Betfair but goals expected. Beware though as Shaktar have only won their last 2 matches 1-0. 3 draws on the trot for Illichivets add to the caution.
600pm - Fenerbahce v Manisaspor - 1.32 home - 4-0 home and 3-2 away loss - overs the call? Over 1.5 goals safe bet.Fener won last 3 home head to heads. Lost only 2 at home last year. 1.26 over 1.5 goals
600pm - Kryvbas v Dinamo Kiev - 1.38 away - Mixed results in head to heads away - 2 wins and a loss for Kiev. Kryvbas have conceded 7 in their last 2 matches in the league. Goals bet? Over 1.5 goals - only match odds on Betfair.
600pm - Santander v Barcelona - 1.28 away - 4-0 and 4-1 Barca wins last season augurs well for the opener , but we saw with Roma, Marseille and Pana, that opening matches can provide shocks. But this Barca team is even better than last year's with David Villa's arrival. Expect sumptuous football. As an away game, perhaps you can trade if Barca scored first ( and they scored first in 89.47% of all matches last year)
700pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Cibalia - 1.28 home - head to heads loss for Dinamo and draw shows lack of consistency for me to entertain home match odds.
700pm - Litex Lovech v Akademik Sofia - 1.13 home - I think away side is promoted side, hence the heavy bias to home side. Sofia have kept things tight in defeat. Litex won 2 home this season and 1.13 tells us goals are expected. Only match odds alas on Betfair.
730pm - Genk v Lierse - 1.3 home -scored 13 in last 3 matches have Genk. In solid form and could be dark horses if progressing in Europa League. Lierse lost all matches so far. 2 away losses have been 1-0. Another loss expected against free scoring , confident Genk.
745pm - AC Milan v Lecce - 1.32 home - Lecce are newcomers to Seria A and we saw with Roma v Cesena yesterday, these are tricky matches for strong favs. AC Milan were not betting propositions last year due to huge inconsistencies. 5 draws at home when they should have won easily. April 2009 last time these 2 met and AC won 2-0. Logic says AC win. I would back the 0-0 insurance bet here given the Roma game against promoted side yesterday.
800pm - Mallorca v Real Madrid - 1.42 away - Mourinho on board so expect solidity in defence. Mallorca only lost 3 at home last year, importantly those 3 were against Barca, Real and Sevilla. The Real score was 4-1. 12 away games for Real last year finished over 2.5 goals.
815pm - Rio Ave v Porto - 1.44 away - in good health - 2 from 2 and need another win to consolidate 100% record. 5 out of 5 in 2010 and 2009 head to heads and away matches head to heads have seen Porto win.


245 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Glor Na Mara, 5/2 Big Issue, 8/1 Moonlit Garden, 9/1 Fred Archer, 10/1 Emperor Hadrian, 12/1 Dingle View, 20/1 Oor Jock, 25/1 Queen Of Spain, 33/1 Sydney Harbour

Most races are under 8 runners and 2 places prior to this race. Glor Na Mara 422 form and only 3 under 16/1 1.17 to place

400 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dream Champion, 9/2 Doransfirth, 9/1 Raheenwood, 12/1 Another Ambition, Euripides, Mats Teacher, Silent Jo, 14/1 Alickadoo, The Lady Granuaile, 16/1 Cnoc Na Heornan, Erra Go On, First Row, Rosangla, Waluigi, 20/1 Dickie Henderhoop, Fortune Seeker, Moving On, 25/1 Akadyr, Golden Flight, 50/1 Auction Girl.

Big field and this Dream Champion represents Ruby/ Tony Martin whoi have had a solid recent strike rate since Ruby's return. Take the hint - handicap hurdle though so need to complete of course.

415 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Memory, 11/4 Laughing Lashes, 8/1 Together, 10/1 Misty For Me, 12/1 Kissable, 16/1 Wild Wind, 25/1 Gatamalata, Why, 33/1 Palinode, 50/1 Negotiate, 100/1 Light Footsteps, Mrs Happy.

Hughes/Hannon inn Ireland on a horse who has won his last 3 - yes please!!

535 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Colonel Mortimer, 9/4 Not For Converting, 11/4 Ross Bay, 20/1 What Next, 25/1 Coole Presenting, 50/1 Beal Geal.

Ross Bay a non runner makes the betting forecast interesting. Colonel and Not for look the 2 obvious candidates for the 2 places.
Bolger/Carberry and Mullins/Mullins should see the front 2 dominating this bumper.
The only 2 under 16/1 and this is a flat race.
If place betting, we should assume Colonel and Not for will both place

SHORTLIST
1130am - De Graafschap v Ajax - 1.29 away - just mentioned as an "out of hours bet" - please look out for these bets that are out of the scope of this message.
130pm - ADO Den Haag v PSV - 1.38 away - PSV in superb goalscoring form. 1.19 over 1.5 goals features a side conceding v a side scoring regularly.
600pm - Santander v Barcelona - 1.28 away - the best footballing side in the world return to action. We have seen a number of opening day upsets, but comprehensive 2009/2010 season wins over Racing augur well for a side now with the superb David Villa. Barca scored 1st in 89.47% of all games last season so highly tradeable should they lead at any stage.
730pm - Genk v Lierse - 1.3 home - Genk look solid but this is not in running .
800pm - Mallorca v Real Madrid - 1.42 away - tough away match against a side with a solid home reputation. BUT importantly, Mallorca were undone by Barca, Real and Sevilla last season.

245 CURRAGH - Glor Na Mara looks solid but 3 runs in 3 weeks is a slight concern. 1.17 to place
535 GALWAY - as ever with bumpers a need to look at the market nearer race time but should be dominated with Colonel Mortimer and Not for Converting - flat race so no obstacles.


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
130pm - ADO Den Haag v PSV - 1.38 away - 1.19 over 1.5 goals looks solid and is tradeable.
600pm - Santander v Barcelona - 1.28 away - cannot foresee a weakness here ton the best footballing side in the world. Added stars should make them invincible this season. Comprehensive head to heads v Racing last season home and away ( 8 goals scored)
535 GALWAY - looks to be between Colonel Mortimer and Not for Converting here but bumpers require market consultation nearer the off.






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