This leaves the football and I would love to put up one of the Danish Cup matches as the Betfair odds currently are so far in advanced of Bet365's quotes, but I am stopped in my tracks by a lack of liquidity.
Hearts v Elgin looks rock solid, but then rock solid bets tend to have that reflected in the price. 1.1 currently, I would be happy with that. This is not in running so there will be a need to wait for the market to gain liquidity as the game is not on til this evening. Over 2.5 goals is very appealing indeed, especially given Elgin's 6-2 away loss recently in Division 3
West Ham - there is a niggle re poor general form ( although some of the Bolton goals were lucky) - I call this a "context " bet - 2 poor losses - home game v a team who are just back in the Football league = an ideal opportunity for a morale boosting win - 1.38 is enticing. I would cover, perhaps, the 0-0 here as I advocated with Valerenga (purely because Oxford have 3 consecutive 0-0's away from home)
Wolves - TEAM NEWS REQUIRED
Real Madrid have suprised me with the strength of their squad for their home friendly against Penarol this evening. This may be the clincher. The problem we face is not knowing much about Penarol at all. There is no english translation button on their website
For me, if you are looking at rock solid, then Hearts is the call, with such positive noises from the management. West Ham would be my speculative team this evening , and Real Madrid look to have a very strong squad this evening
*****ONE A DAY - 745 pm HEARTS V ELGIN CITY - BACK HEARTS IN THE MATCH ODDS MARKET. There is plenty of time to wait so please do so in the hope the market remains at 1.1 *****
Close 2nd is Real Madrid at 915pm - IF YOU CANNOT GET 1.1, 1.09 FOR HEARTS THEN CONSIDER REAL MADRID AT 915PM AS AN ALTERNATIVE
Speculative would be West Ham at 1.38 at home
I will be playing more than one bet today, and will personally try to secure some good odds in the in running Danish Cup matches at 5pm. IF successful, I will move to Hearts, and check team news for Wolves and West Ham and consider these with trading in mind.
Hortensia was priced at a relatively nice 1.12 at the off, something I could not relate to you of course in the message earlier. Also, the 505 Hamilton race saw an original 8 runner race reduced to 5 runners with Betfair still paying 3 places.Graceful descent was a 5/4 fav and duly won in a good probability race.
Now those of you you can follow the racing live, do take advantage of these decimated fields especially with Betfair's unique ability to keep the places ( 3) in tact.
Valerenga won and I did back them and the 0-0 and it looked like a good ploy as there was stalemate until the 52nd minute when Valerenga let lose and won 3-0 - not an official bet of course but one I did purely because it was in running.
FOOTBALL
At time of writing the Carling Cup matches do not appear on Betfair's Tuesday Coupon, but they do appear in the midweek carling Cup coupon. NOTE - TEAM NEWS WOULD BE AN IDEAL WITH ALL SCOTTISH AND CARLING CUP ROUNDS FEATURING SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP AND ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP TEAMS
5pm - Bolbro v Hjorring - 1.15 away - IN RUNNING - illiquid match odds market which is a pity as this match is in running and the asian handicap market starts at +3 goals!! Highly optimistic. Danish Cup and I said a few weeks ago that these Danish Cup games generally went the way of the favourite and generally quite convincingly.
As you might expect on a European and Carling Cup night, the Danish Cup markets are very illiquid. A pity as goals bets could have been a good choice here as would a straight match odds back of the market leaders. Considering Hjorring are quoted at 1.05 with Bet365, any odds above that on Betfair would be seen as value!
5pm - Hirtshals v Skive - 1.17( only a few quid) - considering this is 1.02 with Bet365, again anything above that price with Betfair is deemed value. Not in running but you would suspect any team quoted at 1.02 away has a chance to score bucket loads, so over 2.5 goals should enhance the match odds ( alas another illiquid betfair market)
5pm - Lystrup v Varde - 1.12 with bet365 and as above.
5pm - Ostre Boldklub v Thisted -away side 1.10 with bet365 yet as high as 1.21 ( only a few quid ) on Betfair.
5pm - Ringkobing IF v Viborg - 1.12 away side - in running - another quoted at 1.05 with Bet365 but odds bigger at Betfair in the Danish Cup
745pm - Alfreton Town v Gainsborough - 1.45 home - a 3-2 Gainsborough win last time out p[ut me right off. I was looking for Alfreton to show why they are 1.45 shots - English conference
745pm - Alloa v Aberdeen - 1.45 away - these 2 met in the CUp last year, with Aberdeen away again and the away side won 2-1 - Alloa have had 2 tight Division 2 matches, while Aberdeen have won their 2 Premier League ties, most recently beating Hamilton 4-0 - a lay of Alloa would be safest I suspect.
745pm - Dunfermline v Clyde - 1.38 home -last 10 head to heads have been over 1.5 goals. Last 2 most recent head to heads appeared in 2009 when it was 1-1 and then 4-1 to Dunfermline.
It would now seem that Clyde are in Division 3 ( according to www.futbol24.com) - how did that happen if they were in Division 1 in May 2009? The ideal for me would be over 1.5 goals but Betfair only offers match odds and over 2.5 goals.
745pm - Hearts v Elgin - 1.1 home - Elgin were beaten 6-2 away from home by Berwick Rangers on 14th August and the Hearts quote of 1.1 should signal goals for the Premiership side against Division 3 side.
Again Betfair is only offering match odds and over 2.5 goals and the latter is a tempting 1.3 although I suspect will rely wholly on Hearts - it is also NOT tradeable.
745pm - Sevilla v Braga - 1.35 home - in running - Champions League 2nd leg and Braga lead 1-0 from their first home leg. As you know, Sevilla were royally spanked by Barca in the Super Cup recently ( flagged up here). Now I instinctively like Braga , probably because I followed the Portugeuse League closely last season. They did, though, lose away to Celtic 2-1 after a convincing home win. Sevilla will certainly be motivated for this match, and have no immediate league concerns as La Liga is yet to start. 1.29 for over 1.5 goals really is enticing and includes both sides ( Braga did take the lead away to Celtic) Sevilla must score at least 1. I would trade as well if it was an early goal.
745pm - St Johnstone v Morton - 1.47 home - Premier league against Division 1 - head to heads June 2009 when both teams were in Division 1 was 3-1 to St Johnstone with 0-0 before that
745pm - Sunderland v Colchester - 1.46 home - in running - head to heads go back to 2006 and 2007 and are pretty much irrelevant. Premiership v League 1. Colchester have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 3 away matches ( albeit in lower company)
"Bruce is likely to shuffle his pack as the Black Cats look to progress to the third round, but according to the manager Sunderland fans can still expect a strong team to take to the field tomorrow night.
"Michael Turner's back from suspension, Lee Cattermole and Andy Reid are available and they all need games, so this game is terrific in that respect.
"We'll put a strong team out, an experienced team. It does give a chance to people who haven't played yet, but I would still envisage we will be very strong."
Bruce does want a cup run it would seem and we must realise that this will be a strong, but weakened, Sunderland side
745pm - West Ham v Oxford Utd - 1.38 home - in running - surely a welcome distraction for the Hamsters who are dire in the Premiership thus far. Oxford United's last 4 away matches have been draws with 3 consecutive 0-0 draws latest. Oxford United have returned to the League proper and consequently there is some gap. The West Ham website indicates Avram Grant is likely to play a strong side in order to secure a morale boosting first competitive win this season ( and at home as well adds some incentive) Will West Ham really lose 2 home games on the trot ( especially when the 2nd is against a Division 2 side)? In the context of West Ham's 2 defeats, then, this may be a good time to back the Hamsters?
745pm - Wolves v Southend - 1.36 home - in running - Wolves in good form in the Premiership and should have too much for this League 2 side who lost 1-0 away to Aldershot recently. Likely to be some fringe players in the squad so I will have to come back nearer kick off
The game tonight would seem to be the 50th anniversary of the 1st Intercontinental Cup Final ( I didn't even know there was an Intercontinental Cup) This match takes place at the Santiago Bernebau and I suspect Jose will not want to lose this match infront of home support.
Team news from the Real Madrid website
"
Jose Mourinho has included 23 players in his squad list for the Santiago Bernabeu Trophy (Tuesday, 22:15 CET). Cristiano Ronaldo, Casillas, Ramos and Xabi Alonso have made the cut. Youth teamers Mateos and Juanfran have also been included. Pepe, Kaka, Diarra, Albiol and Garay will miss the matcn due to injuries.
SQUAD LISTGoalkeepers: Casillas, Dudek, Adan.
Defenders: Carvalho, Sergio Ramos, Marcelo, Arbeloa, Drenthe, Mateos.
Midfielders: Khedira, Lass, Granero, Xabi Alonso, Canales, Gago, Pedro Leon, Van der Vaart, Di Maria, Ozil, Juanfran.
Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Higuain. "
Looks strong to me !! Casillas, Carvalho, Alonso, Van der Vaart, Ozil, Ronalodo, Higuan stand out and I hope they start. There are a couple of youth teamers in Juanfran and Di Maria. Mourinho is paying this game due respect.
Penarol it would seem are a Uruguan side who I know feck all about. I don't know their strengths or weaknesses or their recent form. I would have to bow to my greater recognition of the Real Madrid side, strong squad list, and 1.21 quote for Real at home under Mourinho.
HORSE RACING
215 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sahrati, 3/1 Mr Jay Dee, 9/2 Cailin Na Ri, 6/1 Grand Zouki, 14/1 Call Me Mulligan, 16/1 Knar Mardy, 20/1 Amical Risks, 25/1 Gutter Lane, 66/1 Quo Vista, Zahara Joy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This is SAHRATI's stiffest test yet but he can prove up to the task. |
There are only 5 horses under 20/1 in this novices hurdle. Sahrati has the look of one who will soon be ending his winning sequenced, more so over obstacles . He has already won 3 on the trot so we can speculate perhaps on 2nd and 3rd horses placing rather than the favourite?
315 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Rio Gael, 5/2 Sadler´s Star, 3/1 The Magic Bishop, 9/2 Bandanaman, 25/1 Train Spotter, 33/1 Galileo Figaro, 50/1 Glen Vale, Peter Tchaikovsky.
| DIOMED VERDICT: RIO GAEL can add a third success despite the big penalty. |
8 runners, 3 places and only 4 horses under 20/1 in the live betting market should make this a classic looking place only race. Rio Gael is facing a big penalty and I would discount, and like the above race, I would look to Sadler's Star and The Magic Bishop as place only prospects, hoping this is, indeed, a 4 horse race for 3 places. Novices hurdles and the 4 under 20/1 are not the most appetising, so perhaps the fact Rio Gael has won 2 of the last 3 in this discipline means we may have to rely on him to place at least, if not win.
330 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Harry Patch, 4/1 Waveband, 5/1 Imperial Guest, 7/1 Mac´s Power, 10/1 Arteus, 14/1 Indian Skipper, Nosedive, 16/1 Doric Lady, Spitfire,
| DIOMED VERDICT: IMPERIAL GUEST is at his best coming off an end-to-end gallop and he'll get one here. |
Harry Patch is 10/11 standout, all red and backed consistently throughout the morning. 8 runners and 3 places makes life easier for him to place.
"big shout on his Haydock 2nd" on 7th August. How soft is Yarmouth? He has won on Soft ground and also ran well in good to soft. Heavy rain showers expected in Yarmouth
415 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Louis Ludwig, 11/2 Daasij, 8/1 Nobel, 10/1 Harcas, 14/1 Lady Wright, 16/1 Bari Bay, 25/1 Carrifran, Rivers Run Free, Roman History, 33/1 Cornish Castle, 40/1 Airedale Lad, 100/1 One More Cent.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LOUIS LUDWIG should take a lot of beating. |
Tim vaughan recruit is strong favourite and a non runner recently. Good price gapper, Richard Johnson onboard, and 11 length winner last run. Only 4 under 20/1 so an obvious place only opportunity for Louis. Remember though, this is a jumps race so he must complete for us to collect.
430 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Hamloola, 9/2 Maany, 11/2 Enjoyment, 6/1 Fun Affair, 8/1 Alioonagh, 12/1 Citadella, 14/1 Maid To Dream, 16/1 Bouncy Bouncy, 20/1 Chaqueta, 33/1 Arabian Jewel, 66/1 Avec Moi, Stargazing,
| DIOMED VERDICT: HAMLOOLA (nap) has done enough to think she had races in her and this looks a good opportunity for her to get off the mark. |
The favourite here is another well backed into evens ( all red) and has run on soft on his maiden debut ( 3rd of 15) so handles the ground ( perhaps the reason he has been backed?)
Leicester will have to be ignored as it is soft, heavy in places.
640 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cardinal, 8/1 A Pocketful Of Rye, Mini Max, Trecase, 10/1 Aqua Vitae, Mount Acclaim, Youm Al Mizayin, 12/1 Fitz, 14/1 Medici Brave, 16/1 Cils Blancs, 33/1 Dovedon Diva, Noble Attitude, 66/1 Avon Rock, Final Try.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CARDINAL was a very easy winner at Yarmouth last time and can follow up in a weak event. |
Biggest price gapper of the day this Cardinal has Richard Hughes to assist.
710 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Astral Flower, Baralaka, 9/2 Chasse Coeur, 5/1 Bull Five, 12/1 Repealed, 16/1 Jubilant Lady, 25/1 Stuff Of Legends, 33/1 Bonamassa, 50/1 Jenny Dawson, Laid Bare, Mlini, Southwark Newsman.
| DIOMED VERDICT: BARALAKA can see off the consistent Astral Flower. |
An interesting maiden as we have another ultra consistent sort in Astral Flower who keeps coming 2nd. There are 5 horses under 20/1 in the live betting so a race of interest ( although given this is a maiden race and there are 7 hours til race time, I would want to see the market at645pm)
740 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hoot, 7/2 Barking, 5/1 Konstantin, 7/1 Desert Law, Silver Ocean, Zahraan, 20/1 Silver Age, 25/1 Sleeping Brave, 33/1 Burnem Green, 50/1 Legal Heights, Mirabile Visu,
| DIOMED VERDICT: HOOT, runner-up at Lingfield last time, is taken to go one better |
Another race to come back to with Desert Law already a significant market mover, Hoot for Godolphin, and 6 horses currently 20/1 or bigger.
910 KEMPTON
| DIOMED VERDICT: SWEET SECRET has shaped well on more than one occasion this year and can capitalise on what looks a fair mark. |
Significant market move into favouratism for Suzhou and eyecatching jockey booking in Darryll Holland.
SHORTLIST
5pm - Bolbro v Hjorring - 1.15 away -only some £700 available at prices down to 1.13 but , as Hjorring are priced at 1.05 with Bet365, these prices are worth considering on Betfair.
As the asian handicap market does not start its quotes until +3, then over 2.5 goals at 1.27 is decent enough. Extremely illiquid markets but in running
5pm - Ringkobing IF v Viborg - 1.12 away side - another shortlisted as it is in running and there is a considerable gap between Betfair and Bet365 prices.
745pm - Hearts v Elgin - 1.1 home - obvious chance for Premiership side at home against Division 3 side - any team sub 1.15 should be considered in the goals market but Betfair only offers over 2.5 goals which may still be worth consideration at 1.3
NOT IN RUNNING Overs are 1.22 with Bet365 so again we can back at bigger odds with Betfair.
745pm - Sevilla v Braga - 1.35 home - 1.29 over 1.5 goals includes both sides and is tradeable after an earlyish goal.
745pm - West Ham v Oxford Utd - 1.38 home - a bet based on context - West Ham not won yet this season and home supporters do not want a 2nd consecutive home defeat. This is an ideal opportunity to get that first competitive win on the board against a team who have only recently returned to the Football League.
745pm - Wolves v Southend - 1.36 home - I would have to look nearer kick off as I think Mick Macarthy will be fielding some youth team players. I would like to see the likes of Kevin Doyle and Ebanks-Blake up front. Still, at home, Wolves should have too much for League 2 Southend
915pm - Real Madrid v Penarol - 1.22 - a very strong squad this evening as reported by the Real Madrid website should see a comfortable pre season run out for the Galacticos.
215 SEDGEFIELD - money is coming for Cailin Na Ri who has decent enough recent placed form, is a course and distance winner, but Denis O'Regan is replaced by a 5lb claimer. Still looks a decent probability placer - around 1.67 to place in a race where only 5 are under 20/1
Niggles? - none of the 5 can reasonably be dismissed.
330 YARMOUTH - Harry Patch ( last surviving Tommy - I read his autobiography - great read!!) is very well backed today, into 10/11 and all red ( signifying consistent morning long support) .
Next best in the betting is 6/1
1.26 to place. Soft ground at Yarmouth is the big negative ( heavy showers expected) This will be the 3rd race of the day and ground may deteriorate as the day progresses. Harry Patch has good to soft runs and a soft ground win to his name -this could be the clincher this afternoon.
415 SEDGEFIELD - Louis Ludwig is solid 8/11, a winner last time , and represents the good Tim Vaughan yard and has Richard Johnson onboard. There are only 4 horses under 20/1 so if he completes the race, he has a great probability chance of placing. 1.21 to place
640 KEMPTON - as ever with evening racing, a return nearer race time is always advised. As things stand, Cardinal is the biggest price gapper of the day and the sight of Richard Hughes in the saddle is a good signal.
710 KEMPTON - Astral Flower grabs the attention for me in another maiden race where the market needs inspection nearer race time.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
5pm - Bolbro v Hjorring - 1.15 away - if only there were £1000's available at 1.15 I would put this up ( palcing faith in Bet365's 1.05 assessment) +3 start in the asian handicaps is very interesting. I doubt the market is liquid enough for all to get on at 1.15 .
Niggles? Danish Cup and I know nothing of Bolbro or Hjorring, any possible weakened team being fielded by red hot favs, state of pitch etc. This is a purely odds based selection.
5pm - Ringkobing IF v Viborg - 1.12 away side - now up to 1.19 ( for very small amounts) - again I know little about teams etc in this Danish Cup match, bar the asian handicap +3 minimum goals quote and 1.05 quote with Bet365
745pm - Hearts v Elgin - 1.1 home - we would hope for a strong Hearts team in this Scottish Cup game against a Division 3 side recently conceding 6 away in the league
Positive noises from the manager
"
"I've got a strong squad," the manager said. "I had six or seven players out and the players we had in did extremely well.
"You could argue we could be stronger when you look at players like Andrew Driver and Ryan Stevenson - who had an excellent pre-season - and Eggert Jonsson.
"It is an opportunity at home and I would expect any team I put out to win the game. It is an ideal game for them to come back into.""
Over 2.5 goals at 1.27 is very enticing but I suspect there will be a liquidity issue. Not so, I suspect in the match odds which looks a solid enough bet today.
745pm - West Ham v Oxford Utd - 1.38 home - NOTE ONLY TO TRADE - because of West Ham's poor recent form.BUT, put into context, this is an ideal kick start win opportunity at home . Dare not lose 2 on the trot at home. Maybe a cover of 0-0 given Oxford have drawn their last 3 away 0-0 ( albeit against much weaker opposition)
745pm - Wolves v Southend - 1.36 home - NOTE -TEAM NEWS REQUIRED BEFORE BETTING -look solid this season the Wolves. I want to see some First Teamers
915pm - Real Madrid v Penarol - 1.22 - that's some squad Mourinho's named for tonight's ultimately meaningless match. At home, and would want to win infront of home support.
Niggles - how good are Penarol (Uruguan side)?
330 YARMOUTH - I would be very sweet on Harry Patch to place were it not for soft ground at Yarmouth ( will it get heavier as the afternoon progresses?) I also have to worry about the "bounce factor" - 2nd run after a long absence
If I was to go by the market singularly, though, he is rock solid, been backed all morning and is 1.28 to place
These 2 niggles though do stick in my mind. We should remain disciplined as regards betting on ground extremes ( hence nothing from Leicester)
415 SEDGEFIELD - Louis Ludwig needs to complete in this hurdles race and a number of one a days have gone awry through falls/unseat riders /pulled up. 1.21 to place and has a good probability chance if we believe the market ( only 4 under 20/1)
EVENING RACING NEED CONSULTATION WITH MARKET AND TEAM NEWS RE FOOTBALL
640 KEMPTON
710 KEMPTON
Wolves v Southend
West Ham v Oxford United
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