Only 1 horse race of interest in another booky benefit day and there are 2 races ( 5 runners and 3 places and 3 runners and 2 places) that will interest probability speculators.
It is with the football that we end with and mid week internationals have been an additional problem to factor in.
So who does it boil down to? Well, for me, Ajax,PSV, Werder Bremen over 1.5 goals at 1.13 , Bayer Leverkusen enhanced bets ( over 2.5 goals and halftime/fulltime Leverkusen/Leverkusen ( although typically fitness tends to tell in the end)) are of interest, with Borussia Dortmund the one German Cup match at bigger odds.
*****ONE A DAY - 545pm- AJAX v Vitesse - Back Ajax in the match odds at 1.17 - seek recompense for throwing away 2 goal lead last week away from home*****
1215 - Inverness CT v Celtic - 1.5 away - signals a tough opener for the Bhoys. This season, if the Old Firm are anything other than heavy odds on, they do tend to be layable. Celtic only lost 3 away all last season , 1 of those to Rangers. Whenever they breach 1.5, this normally indicates a difficult match which, while not necessarily ending in defeat, normally ends in a draw or a tight one goal victory. This is borne out in the head to heads - 0-0 last time out in 2009 then a one goal win for Celtic in the next 3 matches and a 1 goal win for Caley in the 4th. I would lay Caley to not win in 90 minutes and perhaps back Caley +1.5 in the handicap.
Warning - this is open to Marseille v Caen type shocks with Caley back in the top flight again .In running so an interesting trading match if home team take the lead
2pm - FC Copenhagen v FC Nordsj - 1.45 home - the fact that these 2 have shared 2 victories each in their head to heads in 2010 and 2009 means this could swing either way.Only one home game so far for the home side and a 1-1. I would look to lay home side if they score first at very short odds ( liabilities nothing to worry about and they look shaky against a type o bogey team) Away side won their last away match 2-0
230pm - Babelsberg v Stuttgart - 1.36 away - German Cup and home side play in the 3rd tier league - in running.
230pm - Burghausen v Dortmund - 1.34 away - very good preseason for Dortmund, unbeaten and included a win over Man City - keep up the momentum and that 1.34 looks enticing against a home side who have lost 2 at home in Div 3 liga.IN RUNNING
230pm - Oberneuland v Freiburg - 1.24 away - Regionalliga Nord v Bundesliga lesser lights - have had a less than convincing pre season but home side were beaten 5-0 twice at home in their league in May this year.NOT IN RUNNING - +2 and +2.5 asian handicaps and the market must perceive a huge gulf in class regardless of Freiburg's poor pre season.
230pm - Pirmasens v Leverkusen - 1.06 away - Oberliga Sud west for the home side against 4th in Bundesliga last season. Sub 1.10 indicates goals - asians are +2.5 to +3.5 - enhance the odds with a goals bet - over 2.5 goals is 1.2 and over 3.5 goals is illiquid at present. Halftime/fulltime Leverkusen/Leverkusen also an option. IN RUNNING
230pm - Rot-Weiss Ahlen v W Bremen - 1.22 away - perennial over 2.5 goalers return to our coupons - last 5 aways over 2.5 goals and 3 of last 4 homes for Werder were overs ( apart from a 2-0) 1.13 over 1.5 goals therefore is appealing and over 2.5 goals is 1.4 which might indicate an injury to a striker? IN RUNNING
300pm - FC Dornbirn v FC Wiener Neustadt - 1.29 away - 2nd division v Bundesliga and one team was recently tonked v away side whose games have involved goals pre season.
300pm - Rangers v Kilmarnock - 1.22 home - first match and nothing to go on bar pre season. Rangers have won the last 8 encounters with a single 0-0 draw 3 games ago.Old Firm are usually backable sub 1.5 but are there any injuries re Scottish Internationals mid week? New signings? First match of season so cautious approach.
400pm - Vidima Rakovski v CSKA Sofia - 1.36 away - no opinion on this one. Inconsistent CSKA at present.
430pm - Cherno More v Akademik Sofia - 1.32 home - too early in the season and no standout form lines to support the odds.
530pm - Chelsea v West Brom - 1.18 home - obvious but poor pre season for Chelsea although you win nothing for winnng pre seasons. In running - +2 and +2.5 in asian handicaps and the market sees one outcome only,
545pm - Ajax v Vitesse - 1.17 home - through away a 2-0 away lead and that will have riled Ajax - contrast with a 3-1 home win for Vitesse - Ajax need Suarez playing - no Suarez = no bet. Likely to be goals too if we see last year as an accurate reflection of this year.
600pm - Debrecen v Kecskemeti TE - 1.32 home - away side won 1-0 in 2010 head to head - enough for me to leave this one
645pm - PSV v De Graafschap - 1.16 home - another of the big 3 priced to thrash opponents at home, ( as Ajax, Twente and PSV did all last season) IN RUNNING - 3-1 away win first match and playing, I think, newcomers this match.
700pm - Anderlecht v GBA - 1.32 home - 0-0 away draw last time out seen as dropped points.Away loss and home draw for away side so far. IN RUNNING. Looks like Anderlecht at home should be too formidable.0-5, 1-0, 2-0 last 3 head to heads all in favour of Anderlecht - bit tighter at home could signal a trade on Anderlecht. Back them and lay off after they score.
700pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Karlovac - 1.32 home - no form convincing enough for me to consider backing the home side
700pm - Gent v Eupen - 1.38 home 4-0 home loss for Gent last time hints that Eupen must be poor. Eupen are newcomers who have lost their first 2. Gent don't look as solid as Anderlecht did when Eupen visited them.
700pm - Litex Lovech v Pirin Blagoevg - 1.23 home - away side have won their last 2 head to heads in 2010 and 2009 so what's with the 1.23 home quote?
730pm - Atalanta v Foligno - 1.23 home - Seria A v Girona A in the Italian Cup.
830pm - Sevilla v Barcelona - 2.42 away - Spanish Super Cup. their cup games have been 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-1 so tight affairs. Barca look huge here if they are playing the big guns, but remember Spain flew to Mexico mid week for a friendly and Spain are pretty much Barca.
A day of many opportunities and also a day of a few first matches of the season and cup games.
HORSE RACING
145 NEWMARKET
| BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Baransky, 100/30 Dictionary, 7/2 Signs In The Sand, 7/1 Fast Samurai, 8/1 City Legend, 10/1 Pearl Arch, 25/1 Red Jacaranda, 50/1 Jeeran, 66/1 Abadejo. |
| DIOMED VERDICT: Baransky is well up to winning a race like this but did not go through with his effort at Sandown and is faced by four unraced/unexposed rivals with Group race entries. It may pay to give another chance to SIGNS IN THE SAND who travelled well fora long way when expected to make a winning debut back in May. |
Soft ground a concern here and 2 non runners reduces this to a 7 runner race where only 4 are under 20/1
220 DONCASTER
| BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Al Muthanaa, 4/1 Ardent, 8/1 Self Employed, 14/1 Tsar Bomba, 18/1 Clearly Cryptonite, 20/1 Red Roar, 25/1 Nativity, Premier Contender, 33/1 Miss Blink, 50/1 Barton Bounty, Bigern. |
| DIOMED VERDICT: AL MUTHANAA ought to be able to go one better with Ardent looking the most likely improver. |
Price gapper in another maiden 8/13 - - - -5/1 -only had one run . 5 one time outers open to improvement and 2 debutants. Only 6 horses under 25/1
320 NEWMARKET
| BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Bated Breath, 7/2 Gramercy, 7/1 Deacon Blues, 10/1 Bagamoyo, 12/1 Captain Coke, Dafeef, Iver Bridge Lad, 14/1 Capercaillie, 16/1 Jack My Boy, 20/1 Amitola, 25/1 Coolminx, 50/1 Jira, |
| DIOMED VERDICT: The hat-trick seeking Gramercy has improved by leaps and bounds since dropped back to this trip but may have to play second fiddle to the unbeaten BATED BREATH who looks a Group-race performer in the making. |
Group performer in the making he may be but Bated Breath has not run on soft ground yet.
355NEWMARKET
| BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Normandy Maid, 4/1 Style And Panache, 11/2 Second Encore, Volcanic Dust, 8/1 Loki´s Revenge, 10/1 So Is She, 14/1 Instructress, 16/1 Sirens. |
| BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Dark Ranger, 6/1 Amends, Aurora Sky, Green Community, 8/1 Josr´s Magic, 10/1 Privy Speech, Rosy Dawn, 12/1 Usquaebach, 14/1 Ocean Of Peace, Search For The Key, 20/1 Generous Lad, 50/1 Sri Kuantan. |
| DIOMED VERDICT: DARK RANGER (nap) hasn't enjoyed much luck since winning at Warwick in June but he looks the one to be with this time. |
| DIOMED VERDICT: Normandy Maid is a likely improver and will be popular for the Fahey team but will find the tough and consistent STYLE AND PANACHE no pushover .This original 8 runner race is now a 5 runner affair and still 3 places but the soft ground has not been experienced by market leader Normandy Maid. A superb probability race for those who like to take a chance. 530 LINGFIELD |
Big market move for Usquaebach into 2/1 all red favourite
630 LINGFIELD
Classic place only race - 8 runners, 3 places and only 4 under 20/1. Choice at this stage between Sharnberry and Latin Lashes to place.
| BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sharnberry, 7/4 Latin Lashes, 4/1 Lord Of Persia, 8/1 Hoot, 25/1 Christmas Aria, 33/1 Dorothy´s Dancing, 66/1 Marmaduke, Mi Sun Donk. |
| DIOMED VERDICT: LATIN LASHES travelled strongly on her Windsor debut and she can put that experience to good use here. |
640 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Frankie Anson, 6/4 Mission Control, 3/1 Walamo
Quite simply 2 will place and one will not. Take your pick and hope for the best!!
SHORTLIST
230pm - Burghausen v Dortmund - 1.34 away - I like Dortmund's pre season form
230pm - Burghausen v Dortmund - 1.34 away - I like Dortmund's pre season form
230pm - Pirmasens v Leverkusen - 1.06 away - over 2.5 goals at 1.21 looks generous for a team quoted so low in the match odds but are likely to have to rely on Leverkusen for all the goals.
230pm - Rot-Weiss Ahlen v W Bremen - 1.22 away - another Bundesliga team looking to gain the winning thread before season start.
530pm - Chelsea v West Brom - 1.18 home - 8/8 head to heads and a break last year. Ignore poor pre season? If not Drogba then I would want to see Kalou. Scored 7,7,8 in 3 of 4 home matches at backend of the season.
545pm - Ajax v Vitesse - 1.17 home - obvious home chance for multiple goal scorers and multiple home winners last season.
645pm - PSV v De Graafschap - 1.16 home - as above
355 NEWMARKET - 5 horses left and still 3 places -Normandy Maid is the fav - default to this one? Has not run on soft ground though - 1.18 to place
630 LINGFIELD - ideal place only race - given the time we need to check the markets nearer the off.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
230pm - Rot-Weiss Ahlen v W Bremen - 1.22 away - 1.13 over 1.5 goals but not a very lquid market.
230pm - Burghausen v Dortmund - 1.34 away - Dortmund have not been dumped out of a first round Cup match since 2005, in the last 2 years they advanced to the last 16. Home side have a new manager so that might do something. Also, some Dortmund squad players were involved in mid week internationals. Should have too much here and I would back Dortmund to trade out if they lead at any stage.
230pm - Pirmasens v Leverkusen - 1.06 away - try to enhance the odds with goals and halftime/fulltime? Manager in buoyish mood
“We are going to Pirmasens in determined mood. I don’t need to emphasise that we want to stay in the competition longer than we did last season. So I am confident that my players know what they’ve got to do and we’ll endeavour to get through to the next round,”
545pm - Ajax v Vitesse - 1.17 home - Suarez must play - he was suspended last week. Ajax threw away a 2 goal lead to draw 2-2 last week so if 2-0 up again, TRADE this time incase lightning strikes twice.
mood
645pm - PSV v De Graafschap - 1.16 home - 11 PSV players on international duty I hope will not affect matters. First home match should see home win - promoted side so unknown head to heads.
630 LINGFIELD - classic place race but on in the evening so need to see market nearer the off.
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