4/8

eijazz the right choice yesterday and he won. On the 2nd day running, we find another poor performing maiden and the key word there was "if" - as in 'hard to beat if' replicating last run. A 4th place and my concern re a rise to 7 furlongs seems founded.
Pleased with the footy yesterday and Hapoel really do well when backs are against the wall.


530pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Unirea Urziceni - 1.26 home- champions league qualifying round and the previous match was 0-0. Yesterday showed that the market was accurate when a 1st leg was a draw, and the home team were backed to win the corresponding home fixture. Such is the case here for Zenit, who have won their last 4 home matches, never scoring less than 2 in each match. Unirea have shown reasonable away form , albeit within the confines of the Romanian League. The asian handicap , for me, has been a good indicator in these types of matches, and the expectation is , at -1.5 and -2 , that Zenit will win 2-0 or 3-0 if playing to their optimum. This match is in running so a trading option can be considered.
645pm - FC Basel v Debrecen - 1.31 home- another champions league qualifier and Basel are already 2-0 up in their away leg. Priced to win again st home and consolidate and I suppose 2-0 is one of those precarious scorelines that needs adding to. If Debrecen score first, life will be interesting. Exactly the same asians as Zenit's match but better match odds.

715pm - Fenerbahce v Young Boys 1.46 home 2-2 in the first leg and Fener lead twice 1-0 and 2-1 only succumbing to an 89th minute penalty equaliser. This hints at some dominance from the Turkish giants. They are certainly priced to consilidate although will only need a draw to go through with 2 away goals - unless away goals don't count this early on. +1 and +1.5 on the asian handicaps points to a 1 or 2 goal win.
745pm - Celtic v Braga - 1.83 home - I would see the Portugeuse league as having greater strength in depth than the Scottish and would seek to lay Celtic early . Emphatic 3-0 Braga win at home showed what I mean above. The 1.83 signals that the onus is on Celtic to go all out with home advantage, having not made an away goal breakthrough. The asians reduce further now to + .5 and +1 which hardly fills any Celtic fan with hope of a redress. 3-0 is a tricky scoreline for Braga as it should be game over if they don't lose 3-0 this evening. A simple containment job will suffice and a counter attack away goal will kill the Bhoys.
745pm - Irish League XI v Man Utd - 1.22 away - looks an obvious away win as the Premier League start edges nearer. Asians at +1.5 to +2.5 signal a comfortable evening for United. Team strength ideally would be good to know.Irish league is pants in comparison to Premiership.
745pm - Rosenborg v AIK - 1.41 home - tight 1-0 advantage for Rosenborg in this Champions League qualifer and the market expects consolidation at home
800pm - Everton v Everton De Vina - 1.51 home- Everton have been typical no nonsense in their friendlies this last month, winning them all. Priced to do so this evening and likely to make the first breakthrough for us traders ( 1.51 a nice trading price) Away side are a Chilean outfit.
The Everton website does not show team news and hints at a shuffling of the pack with some niggles to 1st teamers, but Everton at home surely should lead at some point.

HORSERACING

2 days on the trot and maidens have proven to be extremely inconsistent with what the form pointed to, so that is something for me to acknowledge this afternoon and evening.

240 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Lamasaas, 5/2 King Kurt, 15/2 Norwegian Liberty, 8/1 Like A Charm, 14/1 The Mellor Fella, 16/1 Roman Strait, 33/1 Dance For Livvy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Ready preference is for LAMASAAS, who showed only fair form on his debut last month but was backed as if much better was expected and holds big-race entries.

3rd av a non runner should accentuate the price gap between the front 2 and the rest.

Hills v Durcan - 2 class acts but this is a maiden ( see my comment above) Only 2 horses under 16/1 and only 2 places.

400 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ahlaain, 5/2 Muntasib, 6/1 Out Of The Storm, 7/1 Cathcart Castle, 8/1 Pineapple Pete, 10/1 Van Doesburg, 20/1 Aquilifer.

DIOMED VERDICT: AHLAAIN can make his experience tell against the newcomer Muntasib.

Another fecking maiden and what looks a 3 horse race for 2 places.

430 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rosiliant, 4/1 Ellen Vannin, 11/2 Slasl, 8/1 Kate Skate, Old Devil Moon, 12/1 Lady Hetherington, 16/1 Marjolly, 20/1 Silent Annie, 25/1 Gilderoy, Patachou.

DIOMED VERDICT: ELLEN VANNIN and Rosiliant can fight this out.

class 6 0-55 handicap - this ain't the Guineas! 4232 form for the fav has been in this grade and hints at a possible win to come. But remember this is 0-55 rated horses.

520 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Nicholas Pocock, Vigano, 5/1 Bell´s Ocean, Carragold, Catcher Of Dreams, 8/1 Navajo Joe, 20/1 Rainbow Zest, 25/1 Gadobout Dancer, 33/1 Labretella.

DIOMED VERDICT: A chance is taken with RAINBOW ZEST, who has slipped to a decent mark and who should be spot on after two fairly recent runs.

7/4 now this favourite and I only mention it as Diomed suggested it would be of interest if money came for Nicholas Pocock.

600 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Catalpa Sail, 7/2 Gemara, 4/1 Miss Windley, 10/1 Admiraloftheboyne, 12/1 Ashgrove Nell, Gentleman Duke, Karn Hill, 14/1 Desert Cloud, Diamonds Galore, 16/1 Golden Starlet, Nama Express, 25/1 Lara Larisa, 33/1 Punt Road, Via Del Corso.

Only ran 2 days ago as you should recognise and 2nd to a market mover from Ballydoyle.

SHORTLIST
530pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Unirea Urziceni - 1.26 home- Russian league v Romanian League and I suspect Zenit should win as per the odds. There have been a lot of similarly profiled games where the home team eventually qualified with an emphatic home win.
715pm - Fenerbahce v Young Boys 1.46 home - were 1-0 and 2-1 up in this match and also had a man sent off - Kazim - so Fenerbahce have shown some dominance. Young Boys are layable at odds of for an equivalent 1.11 back bet and that would cover the draw for me.