Profondo Rosso runs at Brighton at present and the weather is rain threatened. This I don't like especially where 2 year olds are concerned . 7 runners and 3 places - Profondo Rosso and Enable are the 2 horses I would focus on.
Again, though, it may be the football which provides the better price ( while not compromising on the perceived solidity of the bet) . My shortlist for football teams would be Inverness Caledonian Thistle - I just feel that the gulf in leagues, along with home advantage and a manager such as Terry Butcher, should enable Caley to bring home the odds
Spurs play in a must win this evening against a Swiss team from a league of only 10 who have poor league form. Spurs have home advantage, and have made impressive starts to the league season.
Concern re nerves.
*****ONE A DAY - Tottenham Hotspur v Young Boys - Back Tottenham in the match odds at 1.25*****
I only chose this match as it is in running -I would personally back the 0-0 as an insurance bet. eg if I back Spurs for £100, I back 0-0 at odds of 36 for £3. This should cover the affect of nerves. A must win. Given the potential for nerves from the Spuds , we have the option to lay off our bet if Spurs are winning at any stage.
I would also recommend Engulf this afternoon if you are looking for a 1.06 solid bet and go opportunity which should give us few headaches.
Next best in the betting would be Inverness Caldonian Thistle but it is not in running.
Team news is required for Inverness/Fulham/Everton/barcelona and these look strong.
No problems with Hearts as expected -comfortable win. The Danish Cup price discrepancies remained so I got involved in 3 matches, all at enhanced odds compared with Bet365 and they won 5-0, 4-0, and 3-1 if I remember. Real Madrid won with 2 late goals for those unable to get decent enough odds on the Hearts match.
I was right to be bullish about Braga as they scored 4 away from home at Sevilla - the over 1.;5 goals idea proving very well justified ( as it included both sides and did not nail colours to the mast of any one team)
West ham's 0-0 insurance bet nearly proved very worthwhile but then a late 1-0 goal from Scott Parker ensured a profit. Harry Patch - again this is a case where those who can follow the racing had a distinct advantage. Why? Well, the race reduced to 6 runners - something I was unaware of when writing the initial message. Cue Harry Patch winning with ease.
Louis Ludwig - guess what? Yes, he fell at the first hurdle and that sums up the additional obstacle of, erm, obstacles!
Another excellent message from a footballing perspective and with Harry Patch.
FOOTBALL
5pm - Brabrand v AC Horsens - 1.22 away - huge price considering it's 1.12 with Ladbrokes in another Danish Cup match ( and you saw yesterday the short odds tend to be reliable on 2 fronts - 1) hot favs win and 2) they tend to score freely ( enhance with a goals bet) - very illiquid markets again which is disappointing - NOT in running
5pm - Skovbakken v Randers - 1.19 away - again 1.12 with Ladbrokes - IN RUNNING so greater flexibility for us as this is Danish Cup. ( Goal bets appeal as you can trade out for a good profit after just one goal as I did yesterday
| Football > Bolbro v Hjorring : Over/Under 2.5 goals | Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections |
| Selection | Odds | Stake(£) | Bid type | Placed | Profit/loss(£) | |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.32 | 100.00 | Back | 24-Aug-10 16:45 | 32.05 | |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 34.00 | 4.00 | Back | 24-Aug-10 17:12 | -4.00 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | 28.05 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | 0.00 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 28.05 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.71%: | 1.32 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 26.73 | |||||
645pm - Barcelona v AC Milan - 1.49 - Barcelona look seriously backable in all matches when they field their first team. They are playing the pensioners of AC Milan Yes, folks it's the 45th Joan Gamper Trophy !!
"Looking to Wednesday's 45th Joan Gamper Trophy, Guardiola was clearly happy at the quality of the opposition his team will face: “I think there are few other teams who could dignify our tournament as much as Milan. We're very proud they are here and it'll be a good test for us and a chance to look at a few things”. "
a chance to look at a few things? - Hmm, could be fringe players involved? Ja Ja Binks (Ronaldinho) returns to with AC Milan this evening to the club he served so well. Unlike Real Madrid yesterday, there is no very early squad news for Barca. They are at home though and dare not lose regardless of the meaninglessness of this Joan Gamper trophy ( I think Joan Gamper used to be the tea lady at Barca)
745pm - Accrington S v Newcastle - 1.55 away
Like West Ham, we can put this into the context of an amazing 6-0 win over Villa at the Weekend but the watch word as ever will be TEAM NEWS - I suspect Mr Hughton will prefer Premiership survival to any Cup run - and my suspicions are correct as his recent interview attests.
"Chris Hughton plans to give some of his fringe players some action at Accrington on Wednesday - but he insists that the Carling Cup is a tournament that Newcastle are taking seriously this season.
The Magpies manager will make changes from the side which thrashed Aston Villa 6-0 on Sunday, but Hughton will still be setting out a side he believes can win against the League Two side.
"For us, it's important but it's also an opportunity for us to play a lot of the young lads, Hughton told nufcTV, who is likely to call upon the likes of Haris Vuckic, James Tavernier and Ryan Donaldson alongside some senior players as Barclays Premier League survival remains the priority.
"We will send a completely different team down to Accrington. We felt it would be the right thing to do with where we are, and it's also part of the development of some of the young players we've got."
Caution advised therefore, or a trading angle instead of outright betting. Despite being in League 2, Accrington have a decent away record which, combined with a weakened Newcastle side, will make for an interesting game this evening.
Collateral form line of sorts - Corby beat Stalybridge at home 5-1 on 10th April, and Redditch lost 2-0 away to Stalybridge on 14th August .
Yet again the head to heads confuse.
745pm - Inverness CT v Peterhead - 1.32 home - Premier league v Division 2 and all games yesterday in the Cup went the way of Premiership opposition. NOT in running . Peterhead have lost their 2 August Division 2 away games and a first team for Inverness Caley should be enough. Impressive at home v Celtic recently shows what the home side is capable of.
745pm - Kilmarnock v Airdrie Utd - 1.4 home - again Premiership v Division 2 but Kilmarnock have found it difficult to win at home recently. IN RUNNING so team news key I think but do not have as strong a profile as Inverness Caley Thistle.
745pm - Tottenham v Young Boys - 1.25 home - very short price for Spuds , seeing as they were 3-0 down in the first leg but surely this is the very definition of a MUST WIN match. Spurs have been one of the most impressive teams thus far in the Premiership and with Bale and Lennon possess superb old fashioned crafty wingers. Man City simply had luck on their side in the 0-0 draw at Spurs. Young Boys are in a league of 10 teams and quite simply this offers limited competition. Add to this the fact they are not as dominant a force in the Swiss league as usual ( 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses) and I suppose the 1.25 for Spurs becomes even more realistic and appealing.
1.17 over 1.5 goals is of some appeal as ideally Spurs will want to wrap this up in 90 minutes ( requiring 2 goals to no reply)
Likely to play a full squad this evening, meaning extra time hopefully avoided as Premiership commitments at the weekend.
8pm - Everton v Huddersfield - 1.35 home - as ever TEAM NEWS is the key. Not too shabby so far -Tim Howard howler apart ( they were always going to draw with Wolves as my research indicated) -a strong team will beat Hudderslfield this evening. Premier league v League 1 -some positive noises from the Everton camp regarding team
"
The impending Carling Cup clash inevitably brought about questions regarding squad rotation and Round said that while there may be changes, it would serve only to illustrate the competition for places in the Everton squad.
"There might be one or two changes but whoever we put out, it will be a strong team, that is for sure," he said.
Nigerian defender Yobo could feature for the first time this season but his compatriot Yakubu is out after being injured in training.
"He (Yakubu) should be fit for the weekend, he took a whack in training on Monday and he couldn't complete training today," reported Round.
"Joe is in the squad tomorrow and Yak would have been but he picked up a whack and is out. They are both in contention and will hopefully play a big part in us having a good season."
Everton: Howard, Mucha, Neville, Hibbert, Coleman, Jagielka, Distin, Yobo, Heitinga, Baines, Rodwell, Arteta, Fellaini, Bilyaletdinov, Pienaar, Gueye, Saha, Vaughan, Osman, Cahill, Beckford."
That squad looks fine to me to take on League 1 opposition. +1 and +1.5 asians indicates a tight enough evening ahead with the potential 1 goal or optimum 2 goal Everton win
210 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Man Of The Match, 2/1 Red Riverman, 4/1 Dressing Room, 10/1 Cotton Spirit, 20/1 Perignon, Subramaniam, 25/1 Hobbesian War, Sam Nombulist, 100/1 Coracle, Monel.
| DIOMED VERDICT: No surprise if Dressing Room improves markedly on his Newbury debut but both Man Of The Match and RED RIVERMAN have already shown enough to suggest they are winners waiting to happen. |
Interesting first race of the day sees a potential 4 only shortlisted ( Perignon looks to be fancied today into 10/1 - which of the 4 will not place ( if indeed they dominate this maiden)? Dressing Room is my Johnston horse. The front 3 in the market have all had one run - the usual maiden dilemma - are they guaranteed to replicate initial good effort?
240 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Mr Lu, 4/1 Scrapper Smith, 9/2 Residency, 5/1 Spin Again, 7/1 Maxwell Hawke, 12/1 This Ones For Eddy, 14/1 Barraland, Hosanna, 16/1 Nolecce, 25/1 Rosbertini.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A weak handicap in which the step up to 7f can help RESIDENCY get off the mark. |
Why is Nolecce as low as 15/8 favourite here ? This is a class 6 handicap though ( next stop selling company!!)
250 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Engulf, 11/2 Mata Hari Blue, 16/1 Clare Harrier, 20/1 Rose Bed, Sonia Girl, 25/1 Clearly Cryptonite, 33/1 Premier Contender, 66/1 Wrens Hope.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ENGULF hasn't looking a totally solid betting proposition but faces little of note. |
not a "totally solid betting proposition" refers to the win only market. Engulf has 3 consectutive 2nd places including a short head 2nd last time out. Now 1/4 and appears in an ideal 8 runner and 3 place race , this looks an obvious opportunity . There is a chance we can try for a value placer in Mata Hari Blue - the only other horse under 16/1 in the betting forecast.
Premier Contender is as low as 12/1 which adds some spice to this race .
300 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Profondo Rosso, 11/4 Enabling, 6/1 U A E Storm, 8/1 Fine Style, 10/1 Freehand, 20/1 Drumadoon, 28/1 Celani, 40/1 Droxford, 100/1 Adzing.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PROFONDO ROSSO, who is from a good Ballymacoll Stud family that tend to improve with age and distance, should be suited by this step up to 1m and looks very much the one to beat. |
7 runners now makes "very much the one to beat" Profondo Rosso of interest with Fallon in the saddle. Only 4 to beat to place and 2 of those 4 are 25/1 and 50/1 .
Niggle would be the ground at Brighton - quoted as soft at present and while the horse ran well on good to soft we would need to ensure it is not heavy.
330 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Honoured, 13/2 Ermyntrude, Finch Flyer, 7/1 Hotfoot, 8/1 Blue Zealot, 10/1 Cuckoo Rock, Rodrigo De Freitas, Tallawalla, 14/1 River Tease, 20/1 Chief Storm Eagle, Pictures, 25/1 Many A Slip, Marafong, 28/1 Chat De Soie, Plan A.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HONOURED is the type that Sir Mark Prescott traditionally excels with and he leaps off the page. It would be particularly significant if he's firmer in the betting than on his reappearance, when still managing to go very close. |
Typical Sir Mark Prescott handicapper, this Honoured is now 13/8 with next best at 6/1
510 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Rio´s Girl, 9/2 Six Wives, 7/1 Hold On Tiger, 10/1 Bombay Mist, Tabiet, 12/1 Areeg, Classlin, Lees Anthem, 14/1 Boy The Bell, Taborcillo, 16/1 Tartufo Dolce, 20/1 Kristen Jane.
| DIOMED VERDICT: RIO'S GIRL looks the one to beat after her wide-margin win here earlier in the month, though it was interesting to see Six Wives improve for the easier 5f at Windsor last time. We haven't had one of these for a while - a price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap and all red too, this Rios Girl SHORTLIST 5pm - Brabrand v AC Horsens - 1.22 away - again Danish Cup has been good and price discrepancy beetween bookies and betfair should be exploited, albeit in a very illiquid market. 5pm - Skovbakken v Randers - 1.19 away - in running so would be better choice between the 2 Danish Cup matches. If you can get 1.19 ( and I doubt it as this is another illiquid market) then that is a good price for a 1.12 shot with the bookies 645pm - Barcelona v AC Milan - 1.49 - looks a very tradeable price - back barca and hope that they lead at some stage at the Nou Camp. Of course this is a meaningless match and team news is very important. 745pm - Inverness CT v Peterhead - 1.32 home - the difference between the leagues should be enough - all Premiership won yesterday. Terry Butcher is bullish and wants a win to consolidate a solid weekend performance. 745pm - Tottenham v Young Boys - 1.25 home - a league of 10 teams coming to a high flying Premiership side. The odds look right but they were 3-0 up at their home leg - an anomoly? The articifical surface? MUST WINS generally do win. Spurs battled so hard for Champions League football that this kind of opposition should not pose a threat. 8pm - Everton v Huddersfield - 1.35 home TEAM NEWS REQUIRED - Stoke/Sunderland/West ham/ all managed it yesterday and Wolves scored 1st so this could be a tradeable game 8pm - Fulham v Port Vale - 1.38 home - TEAM NEWS REQUIRED - finalists last season will look for similar this season 250 CATTERICK - quite obvious opportunity for Engulf today at 1.06 to place though. Chance the win only bet? 1.26 to win only and opposition is thin on the ground. Straight 8 runners and 3 places are the reason behind such a poor place only price. I thought Mata Hari Blue would be a viable place only alternative but she ran on soft at Leicester last night and I don't know how she is today. 300 BRIGHTON - Profondo Rosso looks worth chancing to place, albeit in another 2 year old maiden. Slight chock at the price - 1.1 Enabling represents Hannon/Hughes and 1.33 to place for a ready alternative to Profondo Rosso. Niggles - Brighton is a quirky course, more so for 2 year olds. Good to soft ground currently may get worse? But this is a 7 runner race , for 3 places and 2 clear outsiders give the named horses solid probability chances of success. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 5pm - Skovbakken v Randers - 1.19 away - the one in running Danish Cup match - and thus tradeable - y0u will be unlikely to get the 1.19 - if only!! Perhaps an enhanced bet via goals? 645pm - Barcelona v AC Milan - 1.49 -TEAM NEWS REQUIRED 745pm - Inverness CT v Peterhead - 1.32 home - looks a solid bet this one with Terry Butcher's enthusiasm the likely clincher. Premier League v Division 2 745pm - Tottenham v Young Boys - 1.25 home - yes, they were 3-0 down but got it back to 3-2. A 2-0 home win the simplest way of avoiding extra time ( Spurs surely will play their strongest team and are wary of Premiership weekend fixtures coming up) Young Boys are in poor domestic form (W-D-L 2-2-2) and this is arguably one of the better Premiership performers so far. My concern may be the nerves - Spurs know the supreme importance of this match to reach the Group stages of the Champions League and I would see it as a shock if a team from a poor league of just 10 teams somehow halts Spurs. I may consider a 0-0 cover bet incase this becomes a tight early affair. 8pm - Everton v Huddersfield - 1.35 home TEAM NEWS REQUIRED - this looks good for a hopefully strong Everton side 8pm - Fulham v Port Vale - 1.38 home - TEAM NEWS REQUIRED - finalists last season and I suspect the Board will want the same again 250 CATTERICK - Engulf is running in a classic 8 runner and 3 place race but his price reflects this - 1.06 to place. 1.26 for the win -the horse is admittedly quirky and , as Spotlight says, not a solid betting proposition 300 BRIGHTON - Profondo Rosso is 1.1 to place for Fallon and Michael Stoute in a 7 runner race and 3 places ( 2 clear outsiders should make this a 5 runner race for 3 places) Enabling is very interesting for Hannon/Hughes and looks a ready alternative at 1.32 to place. This is, admittedly, a riskier bet than Profondo Rosso. -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94 |
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