Teplice should dispatch of opponents in the Czech Cup but I don't want to bet on this obscure cup too often.
Murray will win this evening bar injury but is the relentless heat that was apparent yesterday going to play a part and jeopardise the 3-0 set betting? It is tradeable if you have faith that Ruby will win the first set.
This leaves Spa's Dancer as having a degree of solidity today but it comes with big niggles. This is a maiden debuting on the all weather. How on earth do we know how this horse will take to the surface? We also have a near joint favourite in Tenessee and it is optimistic to hope these 2 all weather debutants both place in the first 3
*****ONE A DAY - a niggly betting day signals a NO BET DAY. If I can, I will look again at the 620 KEMPTON as Spa's Dancer is the best horse in the race but is tackling an unknown surface. I will look at the market ( as this is a maiden) at 6pm and report back*****
Easy day for Sigma yesterday and over 3.5 goals came in easily for speculators/traders. I was very happy with my analysis of Djokovic's match too. His price was suspiciously high and so it proved with a torrid opening match. I mentioned he would be tradeable at a much higher price. Did anyone back Djokovic when 2 sets to 1 down?
4pm - Sokol Brozany v Teplice - 1.23 away - Czech Cup match much like yesterday's. Teplice are unbeaten throughout August . Home side are from the 4th level (Group B) - on a par with the home team yesterday beaten 5-2. Asian Handicap begins at +2 for Teplice and it was spot on with Sigma yesterday who won by 3 goals. Teplice are 1.16 with Bet365. Importantly this match is IN RUNNING .
4pm - Slavicin v banik Ostrava - 1.18 away side - 1.10 with bet365 and the betting market is very illiquid indeed and only match odds and overs at Betfair.
As with these types of competitions, it is down to taking a chance ( like yesterday) that the betting market is accurate in its reflection of the likely winner.
4pm - Slavicin v banik Ostrava - 1.18 away side - 1.10 with bet365 and the betting market is very illiquid indeed and only match odds and overs at Betfair.
As with these types of competitions, it is down to taking a chance ( like yesterday) that the betting market is accurate in its reflection of the likely winner.
8pm - Cadiz v LHospitalet - 1.46 home - 2 teams who look to be plying their trade in Division 3 in Spain - far too risky for me to bet in this Spanish Cup match .
TENNIS
HORSE RACING
230 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Mushy Peas, 7/2 Dreamacha, 5/1 Via Aurelia, 11/2 Rosiliant, 8/1 Billionaire Boy, Rose Bed, 9/1 Gilderoy, 11/1 Gessabelle, 25/1 Kyoatee Kilt, 33/1 Brody´s Boy, 40/1 Leahness,
| DIOMED VERDICT: DREAMACHA shaped as though a return to this trip would suit when third on her handicap debut. The main danger is Mushy Peas. |
The straight 8 runners remain now and there is a 50/50 split. Half the field are under 14/1 and Mushy Peas is the clear favourite, all red at 2/1. This is, though, a poor class 6 handicap sprint over the minimum distance. Can we trust such poor horses?
300 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Auden, 4/1 Raucous Behaviour, 5/1 Master Perfect, 13/2 Christmas Aria, 8/1 Sisindu, 12/1 Enlightening, 16/1 Indian Wish, 20/1 Classic Voice, 66/1 Dreams Of Glory, 100/1 Huckle Duckle.
| DIOMED VERDICT: AUDEN has leading claims on his promising second in a 7f Newmarket maiden on debut last month. |
Godolphin juveniles must be respected ( and would be respected all the more by me if Dettori or Durcan were onboard) . Auden has had one promising run and that conundrum arises again - will he repeat initial favourable run on only his 2nd ever start?
Priced to run very well though it must be said. 4/6 - - - - - - -6/1 price gap.
350 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Two Feet Of Snow, 3/1 Saxonette, 12/1 Moorland Boy, Simmons, 16/1 Dorothy´s Dancing, Ignore The Advice, 20/1 Bonjour Bongee, Welsh Dresser, 25/1 Burnem Green, 40/1 Zafrina, 50/1 Snapshott.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TWO FEET OF SNOW should win again. |
In what is a poor start to the month, I must look at all likely contenders. A poor betting day is signalled by the fact that I am contemplating this 2 year old selling stakes race on the all weather . Two feet of Snow is a 2 year old winner already in a seller at Wolves and , as only one of only 2 under 12/1, the market expects a good run here at Lingfield. Saxonette would be the value place selection. But dare we trust 2 year olds in selling races?
510 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Whereveryougoigo, 7/2 Caravan Queen, 9/2 Littledean Jimmy, 10/1 Naughtyatiz, 14/1 Crookshanks, 16/1 Kilcommon Pride, Kingston Orla, 20/1 Lagan Katie, 25/1 Silver Twilight, 33/1 Kirkton.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WHEREVERYOUGOIGO sets the standard on form. |
Whereveryougoigo has had 2 runs in bumpers, the last 3 months ago, yet is breaching odds on status at time of writing. I have said it many times before, that bumpers require market consideration as they are liable to stable gambles. As if to emphasise the poor day we have, this is a class 6.
620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Spa´s Dancer, 11/4 Tenessee, 8/1 Catching Zeds, 10/1 Marie Cuddy, 16/1 Zarius, 20/1 Ice Road Trucker, 25/1 Fastinthestraight, Fear Factor, Katmai River, 33/1 Far View, Flying Cherry, Noisy Noverre, 66/1 Cloth Ears, Mistress Shy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TENESSEE's debut effort looks very solid and although he has been disappointing this year, his stable are in better form now. |
Do you remember Abzolutely the other day? Well he won, and this Spa's Dancer is similarly profiled. Overall form is 223248 but in class 5 maidens ( like today's race) form is 222.
The 4 and 8 may be offputting until we learn they were achieved in a class 4 handicap and a class 2 handicap repectively.
Tenessee is an obvious main rival here but his 86 form was achieved in class 4 and class 5 maidens -so no real excuses.
There are only 4 horses under 16/1 in this race and only 2 horses under 7/1 in the above named.
Both of the main protagonists are all weather debutants . Spas dancer has generally raced over 8 furlongs and is being dropped to 7 furlongs today ( the distance of the horse's 2nd on debut)
A slight question mark regarding Spa Dancer's draw.
Looks a solid contender here were it not for the fact this is a new surface for Spa's.
SHORTLIST
A poor betting day today if the above is anything to go by with everything having its fair share of niggles. I am aware that there are some International Friendlies to come this week which should provide some betting solidity and there may also be a chance to back the likes of Nadal, Federer et al at decent enough odds .
So who gets shortlisted this afternoon?
4pm - Sokol Brozany v Teplice - 1.23 away - this game is mentioned because there is an in running element here. Also, +2 goals asian handicaps for Teplice should hint at goals. Yesterday's match saw 7 goals so the apparent minnows could have a capability of scoring , with home advantage, against the big leaguers.
Alas, over 1.5 goals is simply illiquid with Betfair and this would have been my ideal bet here.Its alternative, Total goals 2 or more, is also illiquid. A pity as this could have been a one a day consideration which has both teams playing for us.
6pm - Andy Murray v Lacko - 1.02 match odds and 1.37 3-0 set betting to Andy Murray. World Number 4 against 71 here and Murray expected to win with ease. No head to heads between these 2. I am concerned by the heat at New York which must be factored in. I would only approach this match with trading in mind. I would back Andy Murray at 1.37 in the 3-0 set betting and trade out if he wins the first set ( or if he wins emphatically, monitor as the 2nd set starts)
I must say that these set betting markets are hit and miss as far as liquidity is concerned, but as this is Ruby, I think we could be ok.
Brighton is known as an idiosyncratic track and none more so than when 2 year olds are involved. Auden is favourite here for Godolphin and as a brother to Mastery will naturally have his followers, but we must remember this is a 2 year old having only his 2nd run and quite frankly these have been hit and miss all season. Some have bellyflopped while others have replicated initial promise.
1.09 to place for Auden is very positive
The field has been reduced to 8 runners now, 2 of which are 33/1 and 66/1 . The most recent non runner is Sisindu who was 5/1 so that is a significant rival to the favourite who has bitten the dust.
With this new information, Auden might enter calculations. But 2nd fav now is Raucous Behaviour for Mark Johnston who could be anything ( debutant)
620 Kempton - I am quite taken by my argument for Spa's Dancer above and he has an air of solidity about him in this maiden. As I have mentioned about today though, there are niggles. This is a debutant on the all weather and some horses simply hate the new surface. Also, Tenessee is a close rival. Any involvement in Spa's dancer to place should assume that Tenessee places too. As is often the case though, one falters. Both are all weather debutants.
Needs a market look nearer race time as this is a maiden.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
4pm - Sokol Brozany v Teplice - 1.23 away - any improvement in liquidity could see over 1.5 goals as a viable option. IN RUNNING AND TRADEABLE
620 KEMPTON - Spa's dancer, if handling the surface, has a solid chance of placing in a race not without its niggles.
2 comments:
Today is 2nd September and few minuts ago added "new" picks for 1st September is poor joke - but not info for play it!
This is not for you but for people who have asked to follow my tipping service -I post yesterday's message today so they can see how it is done. Why don't you do the work for yourself instead of expecting me to do it for free for you?
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