It is difficult to make a decision. Do I go in time order ( 230 Chester) or biggest price ( 425 Doncaster)?
***** ONE A DAY 230 CHESTER - Captain Bertie to place only - around 1.11*****
It is the late non runner dressing room who makes this an interesting race as there are now only 4 under 25/1.. Yes the 425 Doncaster is interesting too, but Rainbow Springs is an unknown and could be anything although I suspect Frankel and Farrh are the 2 for the places.
745 Kempton worth the wait. For anyone interested in Spain's ladies ( and why not?) ,they obliged as did a neutral goals bet.
A frustrating message as all mentions came in, and the likes of Wootton Bassett was 1.6 to place.
FOOTBALL
430pm - Ilves v AIFK - 1.38 home - Finnish D3B league - AIFK have won their last 3 away matches so no thanks.
5pm - Obolon v Shakhtar - 1.2 away side - Ukrainian Top Division - April 2010 Head to Head was away match for Shaktar and they won 1-0. Shaktar have won all head to heads ( last 8)
Obolon have only won 2 of their last 12 home matches, 4 scoredraws, one no score draw and 5 losses, 2 of which were 1-0 ( one of course against Shaktar)
WWDWWW for Shaktar in league away matches ( they have played European competition intermittently.
In the league they have won their last 3 1-0 - a sudden lapse in goalscoring capabilities? 1-0 is a very precarious scoreline at the best of times.
Last 5 home matches for Obolon have been 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-2, 1-1 but they have not as yet played a team of Shaktar's rating of 1545 ( Obolon are 840 rated at Betdevil)
Shaktar themselves against sub 900 rated teams have won 1-0 twice. Couple this with 1-0 head to heads in most recently away match and this could be a nervy game with an eventual breakthrough for Shaktar ( cue 4-0 Shaktar win as they managed against this lot at home!!)
Asian handicap is a lot more optimistic than me, quoting +1.5 minimum up to +2.
530pm - WAC St Andra v Hartberg - 1.36 home - these 2 played the other week and WAC won 2-0 but it was 1-0 until Hartberg went a man down. Too tight therefore for consideration
745pm - Cork City FORAS v Mervue Utd - 1.22 home 4-2 to Cork in both 2010 head to heads signals a potential goals bet to include both sides?The goals, however, have dried up for Cork in their last 5 matches which have all been 1-0's (WLLWW) - the 2 losses at 1-0 importantly at home!!
Only one win for Mervue away in their last 12 ( one win and one draw) and 7 losses, 2 draws and 3 wins at home for Cork City make them a less than confident back . Add to this the goal drought for Cork City and it gets worse as a betting proposition!
TENNIS
630pm - Wozniacki v Zvonareva - 1.31 Wozniacki - head to heads are 2-2 for the World Number 2 v the World Number 8. This is set to be the most difficult test for Woz so far in a tournament where she has not dropped a set. I would consider laying Woz here at 1.31 just with trading in mind, as Vera should keep things tight and not get mullered 6-0 or 6-1.
Add to this the potential wind factor which brings about plenty of double service errors, and this 1.31 looks distinctly layable for short term trading.
All that said, looking at Montreal and Woz won 6-3 6-2. Prior to that Vera won in what looked like an enforced retirement for Woz ( head to head show one set 5-2) and prior to that Woz won 6-0, 6-7, 6-4
A bit of a head scratcher then this one. Instinct tells me Zvonareva will be no walk over given the fact this is the US OPEN Semi Finals. Set betting 2-0 Woz is now 1.85 which relays the fact she is stepping up a gear regarding the calibre of opponent.
230 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Captain Bertie, 3/1 Sisindu, 5/1 Riot Police, 13/2 Dressing Room, 20/1 Barry Crockett, Barwick, 25/1 Whipphound, 40/1 Steel Rain, 100/1 Suave Character.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CAPTAIN BERTIE looks very much the one to beat on the form he's shown in decent maidens at Newbury and Glorious Goodwood. Sisindu is the only runner with Pattern entries and from a stable enjoying a good run with juveniles. |
At Chester we always need to be aware of the draw and Postdata is not helping . Captain Bertie is yet another maiden with progressive form and over the last few days I have ignored them but they have all placed. Only 5 horses under 33/1 in the betting indicate that the Captain could have a good place only chance.
As ever, it is reliance on 2 year olds to show they are learning and have a degree of consistency. 2 year olds at a unique course such as Chester may underperform?
315 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 White Moonstone, 4/1 Midnight Caller, 6/1 Lily Again, 10/1 Sonning Rose, 16/1 Musharakaat, 33/1 Al Madina, Fenella Fudge.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The one to beat is WHITE MOONSTONE who had Al Madina and Musharakaat well behind when winning a 7f Group 3 at Newmarket last time. |
The strong market leaders have generally been consistent this Donny, -will this continue with WHite Moonstone for Godolphin and Frankie Dettori?
Only 2 places but only 2 horses under 12/1
425 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Frankel, 13/8 Farhh, 7/1 Diamond Geezah, 10/1 Rainbow Springs, 20/1 Colorado Gold.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Both Farhh and FRANKEL looked smart prospects when making a winning debut at Newmarket and the winner of this will be well entitled to a crack at a top juvenile prize. |
4 horses now and 2 places and the non runner is not significant alas.
Another 2 year old race . Surely Farhh and Frankel will dominate for Cecil/Queally and Dettori/Godolphin?
One debutant in Rainbow springs but the market has not spoken as yet.
630 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Baralaka, 9/2 Hendersyde, 7/1 Reality Show, 8/1 Akbabend, Cloudy City, 12/1 Calculating, Kames Park, Quinsman, 14/1 Fantino.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A fully tuned-up Hendersyde would be feared but BARALAKA is on the upgrade and can defy his penalty. |
Rare Tern and True to Form won for Prescott yesterday when similar profile to this Barakala.Another handicap price gapper 5/6 - - - - 6/1
730 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Makeynn, 5/1 Zamina, 10/1 Itzakindamagic, 12/1 Lindo Erro, 20/1 A Little Bit Dusty, 25/1 All In A Paddy, Arctic Myth, Blade, High Kickin, 50/1 Droxford, Jacquotte, One Of Twins, Retreat Content.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for the well-bred MAKEYNN to confirm the promise of his Brighton debut. |
Old faithful Ted Durcan won yesterday on Hokoumah and rides Makeynn today. 2nd fav is a non runner and Makeynn is as short as 1/3 with ladbrokes as I write ( midday). The market will need consultation of course nearer to 730 .As ever, this betting lark is never straightforward. This fav has only had the one run and is expected to automatically reproduce sole positive run.
3rd in his first run, Thomas Tompion won this week ( I know as I was strong on him under George Baker on 7th September but ignored him for my one a day) and this surely boosts the form.
SHORTLIST
5pm - Obolon v Shakhtar - 1.2 away side - slight concern about the prevalence of 1-0's with Shaktar will mean this is likely to be a nervy game unless Shaktar rediscover the form of their home 4-0 win against Obolon. May consider 0-0 or 1-0 Obolon insurance bet although that will half potential profit of backing Shaktar to win only. I would plump for the 0-0 I think if a choice was required.
IN RUNNING so tradeable. If 0-0 at halftime, maybe consideration could be given to backing Shaktar at higher odds, ditto if Obolon score first.
230 CHESTER - Captain Bertie is interesting in this maiden race. My concerns are the intricacies of Chester and whether a 2 year old can comfortably handle the turns without compromising his run.
1.16 to place makes him clear place only favourite in this 9 runner, 3 places 2 year old maiden.
Good to soft ground it says on the Racing Post website. Is this accurate as I would not want to be entertaining backing 2 year olds in soft ground on a unique race course like this.
425 DONCASTER - my pick of the 2 the place races on offer. Frankel and Farrh look the 2 to concentrate on I think in a race where there are only 4 runners, 2 of which are 12/1 or bigger.
Frankel is the clear place only favourite here currently at an illiquid 1.19, with Farrh the value I suppose at a shakier 1.38
630 WOLVES - given the Prescott handicap winners yesterday I must consider Baralaka here but also acknowledge that this horse is a multiple handicap winner, and winning runs will end . But not priced to do so today!!
730 WOLVES - Makeynn pulled well clear of Tommy Tompion on debut and Tommy Tompion, as you know if you read the whole message every day, was a ready 4 length winner under George Baker on 7th September. Given the fact this is a 2nd run, the place only price is likely to be reasonable enough.
All weather debut this evening.1.15 currently but £27 available means this is not going to be the price nearer to 730pm.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
There are far too many 1-0's for me to put up Shaktar with 100% confidence. It is one of those bets where you commit to one side - go with the market or cautious because of the research?
On a positive note, this 1-0 sequence is due to end soon so today , when Bet365 have Shaktar as low as 1.16 to win away from home could be the day. The asian handicap market makers give Obolon a +1.5 goal start minimum rising to +2 so they think this is easy for Shaktar today.
230 CHESTER - BREAKING NEWS - Dressing Room alate non runner ( original 4th favourite) makes the market leaders' jobs a lot easier.
Barwick is the big mover in this new market into 9/1 and is one of only 4 under 25/1.
1.11 now for Captain Bertie to place relays the fact that he has a great probability chance of placing.
425 DONCASTER - cast your minds back to yesterday and Nathaniel who was an eyepopping 1.17 to place in the 200 at Donny. Well, he was a short head 2nd yesterday. Guess who beat him on debut? FRANKEL who is favourite here. Again, this is franked form and could sway me in favour of Frankel today. Around 1.17 to place, this is a 4 horse race for 2 places. 2 horses are under 12/1 and are he ones who , logically , should fill these 2 places. The fly in the ointment if Rainbow Springs, a debutant.
730 WOLVES - Makeynn has the jockey, has the franked form , has the pedigree. All he needs to do now is handle the all weather surface which he is debuting on. 2nd fav is a significant non runner which makes life a lot easier for Makeynn and puts him high on my shortlist.
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