Wednesday 22 September 2010

22/9

Do many choices that multiple bets are appealing today, and it is difficult to nail one.
Immediately Barcelona springs to mind due to circumstances - imagine losing your 2nd league match of the season at the Nou Camp in succession? Unthinkable. Messi is out which makes it less obvious a betting proposition, but Real Madrid's win yesterday makes it a must win already.

*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Barcelona v Sporting Gijon - Back Barca in the match odds at 1.14*****

Could be a tricky encounter with Messi out but I am banking this bet on the probability of Barca losing at home in the league twice in succession as being low.

Do note the large number of short prices today and think ENHANCED BET - how can I enhance the odds? Goals bet / halftime/fulltime?

Also do watch out for team news with regards to Chelsea, Celtic, Liverpool and Man Utd. The latter could be a good back with 0-0 cover?





Right choice yesterday, a replication of most recent head to heads and eventual comfortable win for Real despite an unnerving 1-0 period.
Nerves of Steel proved the value place bet yesterday, Tax Free placed too. Belarussians scraped a 12 goal win in the football. And I was happy to leave Carling Cup alone as obviously Mr Moyes couldn't be arsed with it.
Nice bit of speculation on Bayern Munich yesterday if anyone waded in at 2.06. It became a must win after 3 matches where Bayern had not scored and 2-1 was the final scoreline for Bayern. Sometimes you can just speculate on the back of a hunch and it can pay off and go against the decision you would normally make based on research and analysis only.

FOOTBALL - Huge number of illiqid markets today on Betfair and I have had to ignore them despite potential strong bets ( hint - look at www.bet365.com instead)
1pm -Alania Vladikavkaz v Gornyak Uchaly - 1.3 home - Russian Cup match - top flight v Division 3 UP side. HOme side have only lost 2 in their last 12 matches at home . Lack of knowledge regarding league as a whole means we must have faith that a top flight team can beat a Division 3 team ( if so motivated) +1.5 to + 2 on asians means market expects a comfortable enough win.
3pm -
Turkey U17 v Armenia U17 - 1.2 home - over the last few days the market has been spot on with its prices with regards to the under 17's
Armenia have lost 5 of the last 6.
Turkey have lost 2 of last 10 but those were against Spain and England. All of Turkey's last 12 home matches have seen over 1.5 goals.
Armenia away have lost 10 of their last 12 matches , drawing with England 0-0 and beating Lithuania 3-2
3pm -
Viby IF v FC Copenhagen - 1.09 away - Division 4 v Division 1 side whose only loss in the last 12 came in the Champions League. +4 asian handicap start makes 1.09 very tempting as well as over 2.5 goals. Betfair is illiquid.
1.18 halftime/fulltime on Bet365. I am afraid I have taken the 1.08 and 1.09's here - after all FC Copenhagen are 1.01 at Bet365!!
330pm -
Avedore v FC Midtjylland - 1.09 away - 1.06 with Bet365 - Division 4 v Division 1 again.IN RUNNING so you may like to trade goals here BUT WARNING -MARKETS ILLIQUID
330pm -
Hungary U17 v Faroe Islands U17 - 1.06 home - should go with the odds yet again.
330pm -
Slovakia U17 v Andorra U17 - 1.04 home - hello goals!! - again we suffer from an illiquid betfair market.
330pm -
Svendborg v Esbjerg - 1.3 away
4pm -
Krymteplytsia v Dinamo Kiev - 1.15 away
4pm -
Slovan Bratislava v Puchov - 1.04 home
430pm -
Dinamo Moscow v Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod - 1.36 home
5pm -
Shakhtar v Kryvbas - 1.21 home - could be a good time to catch Shaktar today as they got rid of their 1-0 and low goalscoring hoodoo at the weekend with an emphatic 4-1 home win when similarly priced. This must have boosted confidence as prior to that Shaktar scored 8 in their last 7, and while not losing, they were clinging on with precarious 1-0's.
This is the Ukrainian Cup and a strong Shaktar side should go through. They are clearly dominant, winning last 6 head to heads. IN RUNNING
5pm -
Varde v Brondby - 1.12 away
545pm -
Ajax v Maastricht - 1.07 home - in running and Asians start at +2.5 I would prefer home cup matches to matches such as Twente's away, simply because a home support ensures that management are not obviously dismissive of the Cup. Division 2 v Division 1. Would like to see 6 goals Suarez and 5 goal El Hamdaoui play for Ajax to keep the goals flowing. Over 2.5 goals is tradeable I suspect although the market is yet to get going.
6pm -
AGF v Skive - 1.36 home
6pm -
Marienlyst v OB - 1.08 away
7pm -
ARC v Heracles - 1.11 away
7pm -
Barcelona v Gijon - 1.14 home - 2 home defeats on the trot would be simply unthinkable. Real Madrid won yesterday and they are already clear of Barca. A must win. Messi is likely to be absent after a late injury at the weekend. You don't need me to tell you this will be a huge miss. Asian handicaps start at +2 to +3 . Barca has 7 of the Spanish World Cup winning team which tells you they should cope without Messi. They can bring in the likes of the magnificent Pedro, Bojan, Villa, etc. MUST WIN for Barca.
Away loss, home win, home draw for Sporting.
0-1 , 3-0, 3-1 for Barca - scored 3 in their home head to heads.
7pm -
Capelle v Twente - 1.1 away - surprisingly no goals at the weekend for Twente . A strong side and a need to progress in the Cup should ensure an away win. ILLIQUID market alas.
7pm -
EVV v FC Eindhoven - 1.21 away
7pm -
Haaglandia v Groningen - 1.18 away
730pm -
Club Brugge v Eupen - 1.25 home -LEAGUE match not Cup match. Eupen have lost 7 of their last 8, most recent scorelines have been 0-1 and 0-0 - tightening things up?
Club Brugge in good form -only lost 3 of last 12.Slightly stuttering home form 2-2 and 1-2 -priced to return to winning ways against a team who are DLLLL away from home. NOT IN RUNNING
730pm -
Standard v Charleroi - 1.4 home
745pm -
Celtic v Inverness CT - 1.23 home - supercaleygoballisticCelticareatrocious?
745pm -
Chelsea v Newcastle - 1.34 home - team news vital. BUT Chelsea are playing at home which might just be the clincher?
745pm -
PSV v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.18 home - unexpected 0-0 at the weekend for the usually free flowing PSV. 1-1 head to head Feb ( but 93rd minute Sparta goal!!) -PSV at home are expected to prevail easily but not in running.
745pm -
Scunthorpe v Man Utd- 1.42 away - looks massive at first glance surely? - team news vital. Championship v Premiership and likely wholesale changes. 0-0 cover here ( like the Rangers game?)
8pm -
Liverpool v Northampton - 1.21 home - team news vital. -Northampt0n in league 2 have not won away in last 6. liverpool at home should ensure another good performance despite a likely weakened side.Liverpool's only loss at home in their last 12 came against Chelsea . Asian handicap starts at +1.5 IN RUNNING
BET365
Czech Cup
330pm - Horacky FK Trebic v FK Teplice - 1.12 away
330pm - SK Spartak HulĂ­n v Sigma Olomouc - 1.14 away
DANISH CUP
3pm - Viby v FC Copenhagen - 1.01 away = goals and halftime/fulltime bets
5pm - Varde v Brondby -1.09 away - +2.5 to +3 asian handicaps for Brondby away. Division 3 W v Division 1. Varde have lost their last 2 league matches 3-1 so are conceding against opposition far poorer than Brondby.
6pm - Kastrup v Lyngby - 1.11 away
6pm - Odense BK v Marienlyst - 1.02 home
NORWAY CUP
3pm - Follo v Rosenborg - 1.25 away
SLOVAKIAN CUP
4pm - Slovan Bratislava v Puchov - 1.02 home - = goals!
TURKEY CUP
5pm - Denizlispor v Anadolu Uskudar - 1.11 home

210 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2
Wee Giant, 7/2 Karkari, 5/1 Black Rock Lake, 6/1 Bluebell Rock, Garlough, 10/1 All On Board, Brer Rabbit, Leafy Arbour, 14/1 Connemara Kate, 16/1 Bank The Bucks, Katys Girl, 20/1 Latin Connection, Scottish Affair, Wild And Innocent, 33/1 Rocketscience.

Wee Giant is Mullins/Walsh - 6/4 currently in maiden hurdle.

235 Goodwood
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Sud Pacifique, 3/1 Strictly Rhythm, 6/1 Dordogne, 10/1 Mountain Range, Plea, 12/1 Canaveral, 20/1 Major Domo, 50/1 Embezzle, 66/1 Beautiful Lando, Drummer Boy, 100/1 Dust Cloud.

DIOMED VERDICT: There should be plenty of improvement in SUD PACIFIQUE following his encouraging Newcastle debut and he can open his account at the expense of Strictly Rhythm.

One time out 2 year olds - YIKES! - Noseda and Ryan Moore a solid pairing. - only 3 under 16/1 in the betting forecast.

300 PERTH
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5
Riverscape, 5/1 Grand Diamond, 8/1 Holyrood, 10/1 Knockbaun Prince, 33/1 Galileo Figaro, No Supper, 100/1 King´s Chorister.

DIOMED VERDICT: Useful hurdler RIVERSCAPE ought to win on these very favourable terms.

One of the finest hurdles jumps jockeys in Ireland makes the trip to Perth on Gordon Elliott's Riverscape and Paul Carberry rarely goes home empty handed. 2 places means we have to be spot on but 2 places also means that the price to place will be reasonable enough.

620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Florestans Match, 5/1 Latin Lashes, 8/1 Cuddly, 12/1 Ma Quillet, Silca Conegliano, 16/1 My Love Fajer, 20/1 Barbieri, Sirens, 33/1 Duquesa, 50/1 Urban Kode, 100/1 Majestic Ridge,

DIOMED VERDICT: FLORESTANS MATCH, runner-up on her last three outings, can finally get off the mark.

Only 4 under 16/1 and a favourite who is 3222 in class 4 maidens - this is class 5 today - all weather bow a concern as is the fact he is a 2 year old, but consistent form enough reason to trust?


SHORTLIST
I am afraid I cannot do my analysis on all matches today as there are just too many and as I write it is 105pm. I have analysed the major games of interest.
1pm -Alania Vladikavkaz v Gornyak Uchaly - 1.3 home - Division 1 v Division 3 - only lost 2 of last 12 at home.
3pm - Viby IF v FC Copenhagen - 1.09 away - 1.01 at Bet365 - I have alas nicked the 1.09 quoted - too good to miss. If you can, goals looks the call here.
330pm - Avedore v FC Midtjylland - 1.09 away - away side are drifting slightly at Betfair meaning you will be getting better odds than Bet365. IN RUNNING so some scope , if the markets are liquid enough, for trading.
5pm - Shakhtar v Kryvbas - 1.21 home - 1-0 hoodoo ended with 4-1 home win last time out. If up for the cup, should again be a good home win for Shaktar. Momentum the word here!IN RUNNING
545pm - Ajax v Maastricht - 1.07 home - strong Ajax team should equal goals.
7pm - Barcelona v Gijon - 1.14 home - no Messi tonight will put a lot off, but look at the squad. Must win as already catch up with Real Madrid .
7pm - Capelle v Twente - 1.1 away - pity the markets are so illiquid.
730pm - Club Brugge v Eupen - 1.25 home - newcomers to top flight should help get Brugge first win in 2 home matches.
CUP
Celtic, Chelsea, Man Utd, Liverpool - team news vital before betting decisions. Instinctually, I would go with Liverpool here as the strongest bet given they are at home.
5pm - Varde v Brondby -1.09 away - home side conceded 6 in last 2 Division 3 games so a strong Brondby could spank them.

300 PERTH - over obstacles and 2 places makes this less than ideal but 1.15 may be tempting given Paul Carberry is riding for Gordon Elliott.
620 KEMPTON - 2 year olds can suddenly throw in stinkers. Clear Reason, like Florestan's Match, was consistently placed yet suddenly failed to give his running and finished 4th.
1.1 to place betrays ultra confidence that today is the day. All weather debut today for this 2 year old. Only 3 under 16/1 at present in the market and value could be with Hannon/Hughes Latin Lashes?

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Viby IF v FC Copenhagen - 1.09 away - if 1.09 returns in sufficient quantities then I suggest it is worth taking IF we believe Bet365's analysis that FC Copenhagen are more like a 1.01 shot!!
5pm - Shakhtar v Kryvbas - 1.21 home - I'm a great believer in momentum. Shaktar have ended a goal drought with 4 at home, when similarly priced, at the weekend. The concern I have is their attitude to the Ukrainian Cup which is quite clearly an unknown to me and you. They dominated recent head to heads and any semblance of interest in the Cup should ensure a victory with home advantage.
545pm - Ajax v Maastricht - 1.07 home - hopefully market will become more liquid as the day progresses
7pm - Barcelona v Gijon - 1.14 home - a huge miss the little Argentinian magician, but enough strength in depth to get the win?
6 points to Madrid's 10, a win tonight will take Barca to 9 points.
TEAM NEWS VITAL - CHELSEA, LIVERPOOL, MAN UTD
5pm - Varde v Brondby -1.09 away - like FC Copenhagen, enough 1.09 should mean Brondby are backable against a side conceded 6 in last 2 Division 3 matches.

620 KEMPTON - Florestan's Match surely can place if adapting to the all weather surface. 3222 in form in better class maidens, we must remember though that 2 year olds can suddenly do the unexpected.








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