Elsewhere there are 2 very strong bets in Wozniacki and German under 17 women, but the latter market is very illiquid ( a real pity as I fancied a goals bet in this match) It kicks off at 9pm so I will do an update at around 8pm if anyone wants to read it.
Just a note re Wozniacki. She is 2.46 to win the US Open. This is tradeable if she wins as expected tonight.
*****ONE A DAY - UPDATE 8pm *****
Sweden/Sweden came in with ease. It was the least worrisome bet yesterday and 1.12 reasonable for a 1/100 shot. I could have been more cavalier with goals bets , especially after my research indicated a Swedish side in good recent goalscoring form.
Elsewhere in the message there were some hidden nuggets. The hint that Italy could replicate Portugal's 5-0 against Faroes came true.
I am still a bit hesitant about horse racing at present, and as the last couple of days have shown, I shouldn't have been. But we are in changeable ground and end of flat season maiden territory.
TENNIS
Midnight - Wozniacki v Cibulkova - 1.09 - the value was in the evens trade against Sharapova last match. Woz looks unstoppable and 1.11 is tasty in itself. 1.35 for 2-0 to Woz is tempting. Most recent 3 head to heads have been won by Woz in straight sets. The way she demolished Sharapova means World number 2 should have the edge over world number 45.
All of the good football bets came in one day yesterday and we are left with a couple to ponder today.
FOOTBALL
6pm - Qviding v Torslanda - 1.41 home - Swedish DS3 league. Home team have won 7 of their last 8 at home. WLLWLWLLLL is inconclusively not bad away form for Torslanda. Torslanda have the ability to win on occasion. But they seem to either win or lose.
DWWWDWL in last 7 for Qviding. LLWWLLL for Torslanda in last 7.
IN RUNNING and the asian handicap market indicates a tight match +1 to +1.5
Lay the draw here perhaps in the hope Torslanda's ability to not draw continues? But this is a sequence that will end eventually.
Qviding have conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches. Torslanda have scored in their last 4 matches. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 perhaps as one team seems able to concede and the other seems able to score without necessarily winning.
9pm - Germany U17 (W) v South Africa U17 (W) - 1.11 home German Fraulein have won 9 of their last 12, drew 0-0, lost 1-0 and 2-1. South African ladies only have one match in September which they lost 3-1 to South Korea.
9,3,0,3,4,1,1 are the goals scored by Germany recently.
I cannot tell in what form South Africa are in because only that one match appears in their form figures.
IN RUNNING and no asian handicap market. Market is very illiquid at present and I would expect the German ladies to score 3 , 4 or more.
9pm - North Korea U17 (W) v Chile U17 (W) - 1.28 home -regardless of the result, the glorious ladies will win 100-0 with all thanks to Kim Jung Il who will score 99 of the goals for the glory of North Korea. The North Koreans actually look strong if we note that they have beaten England, drawn with a German side who you see above can score readily.
All home matches have been from 2008 so we have no recent form at home.
I would not bet in this match. Not enough recent home form for Kim Jung Il's ladies.
210 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Krypton Factor, 4/1 Top Care, 5/1 Barista, 6/1 Goodwood Treasure, Rosina Grey, 8/1 Believe It Or Not, 12/1 Magic Stella, 16/1 Jolah, Style And Panache.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Marginal preference is for TOP CARE who looks on the up despite his maiden status. |
Fallon on market leaders does tend to get them home and in this nursery he is on a Mark Johnston 2 year old here . Big move for Jolah and a tight enough market ( outsider at only 14/1) are the negatives.
245 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Enabling, 7/2 Alajmal, 5/1 Ihavenotime, 7/1 Prince Freddie, 10/1 Anton Dolin, 33/1 Embezzle, 66/1 Will Barrow.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ENABLING has the form in the book and can get off the mark. |
The majority of the flat races so far involve 2 year olds - YUK! Here we have a horse who I believe was a one a dayer previously in Enabling who has progressive form of 32 and Ryan Moore to assist.
Only 2 places though.
Watch out for Embezzle - 33/1 in the betting forecast and currently 12/1 in the betting. A market mover/stable gamble or the betting forecaster was way out in his assessment.
420 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Al Zir, 2/1 Wigmore Hall, 5/1 Black Spirit, 9/1 Chock A Block, 11/1 Taameer, 16/1 Myplacelater, Prizefighting.
| DIOMED VERDICT: AL ZIR should be tough to beat if at his best back from a break. |
6th in derby but not run since. Only 2 places alas.
430 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Music City, 5/2 Alfonso The Wise, 9/2 Fascination, 5/1 Sensationally, 8/1 Four Star General, 33/1 Crystal Celebre, 50/1 Violet Flame.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ALFONSO THE WISE might just have the most improvement in him in a weakish race. |
3rd fav a non runner should help the front 2? Alfonso is the new favourite. 2 clear outsiders make this a 4 horse race and yes, again, for 2 places only.
510 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Saint Luke, 5/2 Sybarite, 6/1 One Last Tipple, 8/1 Search My Soul, 14/1 Tribal Dance, 16/1 Gwendraeth Girl, 20/1 Sound Judgment, 25/1 Under A Spell, 33/1 He´s A Hawker, Overpriced, 50/1 O´Er And Beyond.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Winning pointer SAINT LUKE was impressive at Ffos Las and can pay to follow. |
Bumper so no obstacles . St Luke is interesting therefore. Need to check market before hand as this is a gamblers' race. At present there are only 4 under 18/1
SHORTLIST
Midnight - Wozniacki v Cibulkova - 1.09 - looks unstoppable at the moment Wozniacki. I wonder if 2-0 set betting is viable so deep into the tournament as opponents get better? 1.35 really is tempting and something I could trade if Woz breaks early. She is already down to 1.08 from 1.11 when I started the blog!
The 2-0 sets is 1.25 with Ladbrokes, making the Betfair price very appetising.
6pm - Qviding v Torslanda - 1.41 home - Swedish DS3 league and I know nowt about this league which is always a concern when betting . Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 looks interesting as it involves both sides.
9pm - Germany U17 (W) v South Africa U17 (W) - 1.11 home - if the goals markets become more liquid, the Germans should dominate as their odds suggest. Germany Youth Women are 1.02 with Ladbrokes
3.5 goals asian handicap with Bet365 indicates the scoreline we should expect with an ideal german ladies' performance.
German women win by 4 is 1.66 with Bet365.
Over 3.5 goals and a safer over 2.5 goals would be a ready option for me but the markets currently are ridiculously illiquid.
210 EPSOM - Top care could be a good place only proposition today if the neck 2nd in his last run is indicative of potential rather than a poorer previous run on nursery bow.
Back in nursery company today at Epsom.
Positives - Fallon booked and a Johnston horse - 2nd fav -
Negatives - 2 year old nursery - 14/1 outsider tells us this is a tight old market.
1.73 to place is a big price and indicative of what I said regarding this being a "tight old market"
245 EPSOM - I just get the feeling Enabling could continue to progress. Yes this is 7 runners and 2 places only as well as being a maiden ( not normally ideal betting medium for place only backers, but the 1.3 for Enabling to place could look a big price.
Positives?
- Enabling was 9 lengths clear of 3rd place last time out when beaten by Profundo Rosso who got a good mention in a one a day message. I do like to see maidens who, if not losing, at least finish ahead of the majority of the field.
- Hannon 2 year old and we know about Hannon this season.
- Progressive form of 10/3/2
- Ryan Moore booked.
- 7 runners means 2 places and we get only hard luck stories for neck 3rds in these races
- Only one real outsider at 66/1
- Embezzle is a huge market mover and may threaten one of the 2 places on offer
- Ajamal is a Johnston horse and 2nd fav and deserves respect.
- 5 of the field are open to potential improvement with each new run, being 2 year olds still on a learning curve.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
We are not quite getting the nice prices of August just yet this September and it is a waiting game until the weekend football returns and offers greater opportunities at better prices.
Midnight - Wozniacki v Cibulkova - 1.09 - from what I have seen of Caroline Wozniacki, she looks unstoppable. She has not dropped a set yet this US Open. She is playing 44th in the world and has beaten Cibulkova in last 3 head to heads without dropping a set. 2-0 sets is 1.35 ( 1.25 with bookies) There is scope here for trading but that would be impractical for most given the time of this match.
9pm - Germany U17 (W) v South Africa U17 (W) - there should be goals galore in this match this evening ( Women's World Cup) The Betfair markets are too illiquid which is a great frustration as this would be a good one a day bet ( over 2.5 or over 3.5 goals bets)
1.02 German ladies at the bookies and 1.08 now at Betfair which makes the Betfair odds good value despite being low.
245 EPSOM - I would be all over Enabling if this was a 3 place race. With the likes of Alajmal( Johnston record in this race v strong) and Embezzle( huge market mover) looking ready opponents, I would prefer the safety net of a payment for 3rd place. Very frustrating. 1.3 to place for 2 places .
How will 2 year olds manage at Epsom?
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