back-lay-trade-horses-football: 17/9

I think it is best to wait for Saturday and Sunday this time round. Of the bets below, my standouts would be Rainbow Peak to place ( although I acknowledge he is up in trip and in a competitive Group 3 ) and Trabonspor who look to be in form against an out of form away side. The Fallon horse Khawlah looks standout today but I cannot trust 2 year olds after yesterday

*****ONE A DAY - NO BET TODAY*****

12/9
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
4pm – Plzen v Usti nad Labem – 1.26 home – home side just look solid but the Czech league – a solid betting proposition? I don’t know WIN
7pm – Levski Sofia v Minyor Pernik – 1.15 home £3,500 currently available and all points to comfortable home win given the goalscoring exploits of home side. WIN
310 GOODWOOD – yes soft ground but Clear Reason won on soft latest and is clear price gapper in a 6 runner race, 3 places and one clear outsider at 25/1 CHOSEN AND LOST
13/9
No bet but A day where I have to get it right and in Janet’s Pearl and the 440 Redcar we have 2 races - BOTH WIN
14/9
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
4pm – Kolin v Slovan Liberec – 1.18 away – illiquid market alas. I would happily back it if I was doing this for myself , but there is only £1500 or thereabouts going down to 1.15 . Bet365 show 1.10 for this match so this 1.18 currently is appealing. WIN
745pm – Barcelona v Panathinaikos – 1.15 home – what chance Barca losing a 2nd consecutive home game when priced below 1.2? Possible of course but highly unlikely WIN
745pm – Man Utd v Rangers – 1.2 home – Scottish Premier League is poor. Top 2 in Scotland should be no match for top 4 Premiership. WEAKER TEAM CHOSEN AND 0-0 DRAW
140 Yarmouth – Panoptic, Mama Lulu and Miss Exhibitionsit should dominate. The hope is they finish 1-2-3 and I would opt for Mama Lulu. MAMA LULU WINS
15/9
CHELSEA WIN AND PAUSANIAS WINS
16/9
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
5pm – VIFK v FC Korsholm – 1.11 home – should be easy home win but liquidity scuppers this potential one a dayer. WIN 5-0
805pm – Porto v Rapid Vienna – 1.33 home – Porto are the standout form team but always a worry that a team they have never met could surprise. I would expect that Portugeuse league is far stronger than Austrian. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 includes both sides and is tradeable. WIN 3-0
300 PONTEFRACT – Valerius Maximus at 1.15 is the choice of the Betfair market to place. Just hope that this race is dominated by 3 horses under 20/1 and there are no surprises. Always a risk with 5 furlongs that any early errors cannot be overcome. Bunce won on 12th ( beat Valerius last race) and winner of that race raced in Wootton Bassett’s race so form of last run reasonable)
NOT PLACED - THE ONLY 1 OF THE 3 UNDER 20/1 NOT PLACED

I wanted to share with you the shortlist of the shortlist in the last few days to show you that it is simply poor final decision making that is causing the poor run, and that , of course , is down to me. On all of these days, all of the shortlist of the shortlist obliged bar the final choice made.
Scant consolation as this is a one a day service, but only a better final decision separates us from success.

FOOTBALL
5pm - Luxembourg U17 v Switzerland U17 - 1.29 away. - 2-1 away win and 4-0 home win for the Swiss. Illiquid betting market. LWDLLWDDLD at home sees these Under 17's as not the minnows their nationality would make them appear. Swiss have lost 5 and drawn 1 of their last 6 but they have played some big sides. Difficult game to gauge for me.
5pm - Trabzonspor v Manisaspor - 1.37 home. - Turkish Division 1 ( Premier League equivalent) - Last home head to head in February saw 3-0 home win. 2008 was next home game in 2008 with 2-2 draw
WLDLDD ( 2nd loss in the Cup) in head to heads is evenly spread but between 2010 -2007
Trab have won 3 and drawn 1 so far this season. At home they beat Fenerbahce 3-2 and beat Sivasspor 6-1. They have scored 2, 3, 0, 6 in their 4 matches this season.
Manisaspor have lost all 4 matches so far this season 2-1, 3-0, 4-2, 1-2. They have scored in 3 of those matches which might be indicative of a goals bet.
Trab only lost 3 at home last season - 2 were against Fenerbahce and Besiktas.
Manis only WON 3 away from home last season.
+1 to + 1.5 asian handicaps indicating potential tight match.
1.25 over 1.5 goals.
Trab have won 10 of their last 12 at home , losing 1 to Liverpool and drawing the other.
Manisaspor have not won in any of their last 9 matches.
They have lost 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 away matches and only won 2 of their last 12 away from home
530pm - SC Sollenau v LASK Linz - 1.34 away - Division 3 v Division 1 in the Austrian Cup
6pm - Cambuur v Veendam - 1.42 home - 4 wins and a loss so far this season. 3 games over 2.5 goals.Veendam have lost 3 and drawn 2 this season, all over 1.5 goals.CAmbuur have not lost any head to heads. They won the last 2 1-0 and drew the 2 previous 2-2. LAst time they met saw a 90th minute winner ( it was a friendly)
Veendam have not won in their last 7
6pm - FC Eindhoven v Almere - 1.43 home -won 3 and drawn 2 this season. Almere have lost their last 4 and won their opener. Notoriously spanked 12-1 by Sparta. 4 of the 5 games have been over 2.5 goals bar a 1-0 loss latest to a team who finished 16 of 20 last season.
Eindhoven are unbeaten since August.
Almere seem to have been once called Omniworld . They have only won 1 in their last 8 and 2 in their last 12 matches.
6pm - Zwolle v Telstar - 1.37 home - 4 wins and a draw and top the table at present.Have conceded only 1 goal in those 5 matches.
Telstar have lost 2 , drawn 2 and won 1. 13 wins, 2 draws and a loss in head to heads in favour of Zwolle.
DLWDW last 5 aways for Telstar recount perhaps a change after suffering 6 consecutive losses.
Zwolle only lost 2 in their last 12 at home -- one was a playoff match and the other a friendly
645pm - Bohemians v Bray - 1.38 home - Bohs lost only one at home this season. 2nd in league. Bray have won only 4 this season - 2 home and 2 away
Bohs have won all 4 2010 encounters. This is Irish Cup today.
645pm - Mervue Utd v Waterford - 1.34 away Waterford have won all 5 head to heads.
Mervue have lost their last 11 matches. Away they have lost 10 of their last 12, drawing in the cup and winning away to Finn Harps. HAve lost their last 5 and not won in their last 8

HORSE RACING
225 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Khawlah, 6/1 Highest, 13/2 Choral, 12/1 Alfouzy, Elas Diamond, 14/1 Grecian Goddess, 20/1 Dragonera, Mujarah, 33/1 Matilda´s Waltz, Palm Pilot, Sforza, 50/1 Chesnut Coffee, Galivant, 66/1 Astromagick, Merrjanah,

DIOMED VERDICT: KHAWLAH looked a filly to follow when a fast-finishing second on her racecourse debut and she can go one better now upped in trip.

My undoing has been a reliance on 2 year olds and yesterday showed they cannot be trusted as being consistent.

This maiden fillies race sees 3 under 20/1 and Khawlah sees Fallon ride for Godolphin. Highest is a huge market mover into 2/1 but is a debutant.
As we saw yesterday it is a leap of faith to expect the 3 under 20/1 to finish 1-2-3. Inevitably there will be a surprise or 2 from the main pack. But which of the 3 under 20/1 looks most reliable? Khawlah is the obvious choice with form in the book and an in-form Fallon riding.

10 debutants here could be anything of course with Highest clearly the one the market likes.

245 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Berberana, 7/2 Alben Star, 7/1 Robert The Painter, 8/1 Bellemere, 10/1 Blaze Of Thunder, Malgoof, 12/1 Drawing Board, Serena´s Pride, 25/1 Boundless Spirit, Granny Anne, Madam Markievicz, Rothesay Chancer.

DIOMED VERDICT: Few of the runners are proven on a soft surface. BERBERANA had no problem with Fibresand on her debut and can take advantage of a handy mark, with Alben Star feared most.

Alben Star is evens , all red, and the market fancy but yet another 2 year old in this nursery. Has only had 1 run.

310 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rainbow Peak, 7/2 Monitor Closely, 9/2 Campanologist, 7/1 Traffic Guard, 12/1 Dangerous Midge, 14/1 Halicarnassus, 33/1 Bauer, 50/1 Saphira´s Fire,

DIOMED VERDICT: Connections have chosen their targets very sparingly with RAINBOW PEAK (nap) but he looks a high-class performer in the making and the step up in trip can see him open his Group-race account.