Other strong bets includes a home win for Netherlands, and over 3.5 goals Sweden match /halftime/fulltime
*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Sweden v San Marino - Halftime/Fulltime Back Sweden/Sweden at 1.12 ( £3000+ available at Betfair and 1.12 available at Bet365) I would not take anything less than the 1.12 which you can get at bookies too.*****
I see this as the safer bet of the day. Speculators/traders can try the over 3.5 goals with trading in mind here ( only if 3-0 and you start to panic!!) . This looks to have a great chance of success.
The money was well founded with Pearl Arch who won but 2 year olds on a 2nd outing can blow hot and cold.
Wozniacki trade was my one a day . I could not really put it up as it is a rather technical bet.I could have got out easily at 1.35 having backed at evens pre match. A great trading one a day bet as she won the first set 6-3 and actually won the match in 2. Looks unbeatable for this US Open .
Are you familiar with trading for me to put bets like this up? These are not bet and go bets, they must be traded. I was very happy with my call there on a tricky Monday .
FOOTBALL
1145am - Japan v Guatemala - 1.2 home - international friendly - in running - +1.5 goal asians for Japanese. Expected to win easily. South Africa's 5-0 win against Guatemala is perhaps the pointer as to what to expect if the Japanese team mirrors the one that played in the World Cup.
4pm - Belarus U21 v Azerbaijan U21 - 1.2 home - not in running - Belarus have been solid enough in recent games - -DDWDWW - not lost at least. Azerbaijan's last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals ( they have conceded 2, 4, 2,4,4,2 ) -over 1.5 goals is not available in non in running matches - over 2.5 goals might be an option but is a BET and NOT a trade.
4pm - England U21 v Lithuania U21 - 1.12 home - 0-0 in November 2009. England under 21's weakened by the progress of Walcott and Milner into the First Team.WWDLWW for England - the draw being against Lithuania as already mentioned.IN RUNNING - +2 in asian handicaps. Lithuania are given an independent +2.5 goal handicap start.
A strong looking England comprises Smalling, Wellbeck, Sturridge, Wilshere, Cleverley amongst others.
Can this 0-0 head to head be dismissed? It was an away match for England.
4pm - Finland U21 v Liechtenstein U21 - 1.08 home - asians start at +2.5 -goals bet here? Or halftime/fulltime enhanced bet. NOT IN RUNNING so limited markets and limited liquidity. 4-0 in October 2009 head to heads augurs well. Sub 1.1 = goals.Liechtenstein have conceded 3,3,3,4,5,4 in their last 6 matches. Again points to over 2.5 goals bet.They only scored in one of those matches so we will have to place our faith solely on Finland
4pm - France U21 v Malta U21 - 1.07 home - IN RUNNING - +2.5 asian handicap start augurs well for goals. Has France U21 been impacted by the disappointments of the First team?1.15 over 1.5 goals is very tempting here , albeit in another illiquid market. October 2009 was a 2-0 France win so the Maltese seem to be able to frustrate for periods in the game. This frustration has shown itself in tight Maltese scorelines overall ( 1-1, 0-3 (loss) , 0-0, 1-0 (loss), 1-0 (loss) , 2-0 (loss to France)
So do we have faith in the asian handicap market or do we note that, bar Ukraine 3-0 loss, Malta under 21's have kept games very tight.
4pm - Germany U21 v Northern Ireland U21 - 1.24 home - asian handicaps start +1.5 . November 2009 head to head was 1-1 draw ( before 3-0, 3-0, 3-2 German wins) I think Northern Ireland u21's are a tidy outfit from what I have seen of them. Could be a tough game for Ze Germans and perhaps a trade ( back Germany and hope they lead at some stage)
4 draws in their last 6 games and 4-1 loss to Iceland and 11-0 win v San Marino. This Iceland scoreline is eyecatching. IN RUNNING.Recent wins over San Marino really don't tell us anything about the state of Northern Ireland's team.
4pm - Poland U21 v Spain U21 - 1.46 away - tight game in prospect - +0-5 to +1.5 ( best case) in asians.2-0, 3-0, 2-0 to Spain in head to heads ( most recent 2009) could make that 1.46 a good tradeable price if we hope that Spain score first or lead at some stage in this match.LLDLLW for Poland and all matches were away matches. This is the first home match for some time.WDWLWW for Spanish
4pm - Portugal U21 v FYR Macedonia U21 - 1.21 home - 1-1 in October 2009.8 wins, 3 losses and a draw for Portugal at home. Last 2 matches have been 0-0 and 0-1 ( but the 0-0 was 2nd leg after a 3-1 win over Dutch)
Macedonia have won one match in their last 12, so away from home they look to be vulnerable, but Portugal's last 3 matches have seen them score only 1.
In 2009 Macedonia have conceded 5,1,6,3,2 in their last 5.
7pm - Sweden v San Marino - 1.01 home - San Marino have conceded 5,3,7,5,7,10, 3,3,4,3,2 5 in their last 12. Away from home, they have conceded 7,5,7,10,4,7,3,6,3,5,7,3 in their last 12 away matches. Sweden have won their last 5 matches, and scored 2 and 3 in their last 2. Their last match was a competitive Euro 2012 qualifier v Hungary which they won 2-0.
They have scored 2,3,4,4,1,4 in their last 6 home matches. This signals goals galore as we have a team who can score at home v a team who concede bucket loads in their away matches.+4 asian handicap start backs this up. Independent San Marino +4.5 handicap bet signals goals. Over 3.5 goals at 1.28 is reasonable.1.12 halftime/fulltime for Sweden is reasonable for a 1/100 team.
715pm - Albania v Luxembourg - 1.3 home - 2007 head to heads pretty redundant but both Albanian victories.DWWWWD for Albania in last 6 is punctuated by all matches being under 1.5 goals. Only beat Andorra 1-0 in a friendly in June could sound alarm bells, but this is a competitive match.Luxembourg have conceded 3,5,4 in their last 3 matches.Last 5 away matches have been 5-1, 2-1, 7-0, 0-0, 2-0 losses in 2009.
715pm - Czech Republic v Lithuania - 1.31 home - 2-0 in friendly in 2008 to Czechs. Last 6 matches for Czech's have been friendlies. Last 2 friendlies they scored 4 against Latvia and USA. The latter score interesting given the relative strength of USA nowadays.
Lithuania lost 4-0 in their last away match. Asians begin at +1 and I agree - a difficult game to read despite apparent free scoring in Czech's last 2 friendlies.IN RUNNING.
715pm - Denmark v Iceland - 1.33 home - 3-0 and 2-0 in head to heads but way back in 2007.2-2 against Germany in recent friendly followed a poor showing in the World Cup. 1-1 draws against Liechtenstein and Luxembourg in recent friendlies really is poor form for Iceland ( acknowledging they are friendlies)1.33 for me is tradeable in the hope Denmark lead at some stage to allow a trade out. Iceland have been given a +1.5 asian handicap which augurs well for the Danes DDDLLL for Iceland in last 6 aways ( draws were 0-0 twice and 1-1)
3-1 friendly home wins v Poland and USA in 2010 is standout for Denmark
730pm - Austria v Kazakhstan - 1.28 home - it is difficult for me to gauge how good Austria are as compared to the Kazaks.+1.5 independent handicap bet for Kazaks hints at home win. IN RUNNING.
730pm - Netherlands v Finland - 1.13 home 5-0 win against San Marino when priced to do so augurs well against Finland ( priced to score 3 at least today) No Robben is a big loss for Dutch as is an injured Van Persie. Van Nistelrooy returns as a desperate last measure - -he did get one against San Marino ( and My Gran could have got a hatrick against San Marino). Holland have not been beaten in 90 minutes in their last 12 games ( may go further but I only have last 12 games to hand) Won 10 of those matches.Finland lost 2-0 to Moldova away in last qualifier. They have played a lot of friendlies prior to that and these are difficult games in which to gauge in what shape they are.
Asians start at +2 goals and this seems realistic. 1.19 over 1.5 goals is tempting ( but I suppose factors in Robben and Van Persie's absences)
745pm - Germany v Azerbaijan - 1.02 home - 4-0 in Sept 2009 and the Germans are in good form with a good 1-0 win at 1.7 away to Belgium last time. Home advantage should be telling and this should be a replication of that 4-0 .
August friendly 1-1 draw v Kuwait tells you where Azerbaijan are!!+4 asian handicap starts at !
1.17 over 2.5 goals is attractive, 1.48 over 3.5 goals is tradeable.
1.2 halftime/fulltime is simply a bet that Germany will score to no reply in the first half. And with home advantage there is a great chance that they will.
745pm - Rep of Ireland v Andorra - 1.03 home - Robbie Keane and Kevin Doyle against Andorra and at home. Yes please!+3.5 asian handicaps for Rep of Ireland is about right. Ignore the 2-0 Russian win last time. It says more about Russian profligancy infront of goal than any improvement in Andorra.1.28 over 2.5 goals is wholly reliant on Ireland. 1,1,4,5,6,5,4 in last away matches for Andorra. The 2 1-0 losses on the trot came against Cyprus and Albania.
750pm - Italy v Faroe Islands - 1.02 home - I mentioned laying Italy in their match against Estonia and that came off as Estonia scored first. Italy eventually won 2-1. The 5-0 scorelines of Portugal and France should be replicated by an in form Italian side, but recent Italian home matches ( some friendlies and ignoring World Cup matches) have seen scorelines like these - 0-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 , 0-0, 1-0, 0-0.
Priced to score goals today but recent home form says otherwise. +3.5 asian handicaps tells a different story .
1.28 over 2.5 goals is interesting but I suspect is reliant on Italy scoring 3.
8pm - Scotland v Liechtenstein - 1.1 home - +2 asian start betrays the market makers lack of confidence in the Scots. 0-0 v Lithuania last match at least makes this match a must win. 1.18 over 1.5 goals is interesting, as is 1.09 home odds. Scotland have only scored 3 goals in their last 8 matches.I expect a 2-0 Scots win at best.
TENNIS
0115am - Nadal v F Lopez - 1.05 - 1.54 for 3-0 set betting is, again, tradeable only for me in the hope Nadal wins the first set. His 3-0 last time out augurs well for this match. He was imperious, albeit not in the Wozniacki category alas.
HORSE RACING
225 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sassanian, 3/1 Baraathen, 4/1 Magnetic Force, 8/1 Dazeen, 10/1 Miereveld, Valantino Oyster, 14/1 Teela, 25/1 Bojangles Andrews.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SASSANIAN ran well enough last week to earn one final chance. |
Novice hurdle and ground check required. 8 runners down to 7 and still 3 places on Betfair. Sassanian to continue good placed form? ( as long as completing of course)
Good to soft and good ground ( chase and hurdles courses) - Heavy rain showers expected and they really impacted at Newton Abbott yesterday.
235 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Poplin, 7/2 Humdrum, Song Of India, 5/1 Umseyat, 10/1 Always The Lady, September Draw, 14/1 Clarinette, Wild Mimosa, 20/1 Entrance, 25/1 Afaara, 40/1 Ponte Di Rosa, 66/1 Carrauntoohil, No Refraction, 100/1 One Cool Chick.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Song Of India, Umseyat and Wild Mimosa represent a top trainer who had a winning newcomer in this contest last season. The most appealing of those with experience is POPLIN. |
Maiden fillies can be as temperamental as Sariska so come with a wealth warnign, but Poplin is fancied here and Fallon is is superb form .
8 debutants though but Poplin 7/4 - - - - 5/1 in live betting
245 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Looksmart, 7/2 Thomas Tompion, 7/1 Madame Solitaire, 12/1 Hot Spice, Monsieur Jamie, 16/1 Oh So Kool, Shugar Rhi, 20/1 Hackett, Sue´s Dream, 33/1 Soviet Suspect.
| DIOMED VERDICT: THOMAS TOMPION, unsuited by the step up to7f at Brighton last time, can get the better of the Hannon pair. |
10 down to 8 runners - 3 places and Looksmart and Thomas Tompion priced to dominate. Hannon favourite Looksmart and George Baker ridden Thomas makes this a difficult choice between the 2.
Only 3 under 10/1 in another maiden.
300 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Henro Boy, 100/30 Grand Zouki, 4/1 Cailin Na Ri, 11/2 Rain Stops Play, 14/1 Knar Mardy, 33/1 Latin Connection, 50/1 Winter Holly, 100/1 Glaced Over, Glen Vale, Quo Vista, That´s All Right, Train Spotter.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HENRO BOY sets a fair standard on the strength of his third at Galway. |
Significant non runner in the fav opens this up, surely, to Grand Zouki and Cailin Na Ri?
Only 3 under 18/1 in this novice hurdle.
345 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Big Issue, 9/4 Titus Mills, 7/2 Surrey Star, 13/2 Trade Storm, 10/1 Memen, 12/1 Persian Herald.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Big Issue and Surrey Star bring placed form in Group 3 company to the table but TITUS MILLS is a useful prospect who may be able to continue his yard's good run with juveniles at the moment. |
Big market move for Titus Mills into 4/5 , all red, and backed all morning for this listed race.
Like the Meehan winner yesterday, the money has come for this one.
420 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Longliner, 11/4 Nerves Of Steel, 4/1 Sentosa, 5/1 Kashmiriana, 14/1 Alubari, Regency Girl, 20/1 Seaside Sizzler, 66/1 Sea Tobougie.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It would be no surprise if Longliner finally obliged but he's been a beaten favourite four times from five attempts and there are several once-raced alternatives who look open to improvement, with last week's Folkestone runner-up NERVES OF STEEL the pick of them on form. |
Bar a class 2 unplaced, Longliner has shown consistent placed form. A Diomed says, he was fav 4 times but note the placed form.
8 runners and 3 places makes this interesting as does the sight of Ryan Moore.
Beware Alubari a possible market mover .
445 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Coolnaharan, Schinken Otto, 4/1 Film Festival, 6/1 Le Brocquy, 8/1 Calculaite, San Deng, 10/1 Tiger King, 33/1 Skiddaw Jones.
| DIOMED VERDICT: COOLNAHARAN (nap) wasn't disgraced over hurdles on his first run for this yard last time and makes plenty of appeal from this much lower chasing mark. |
Now down to 5 runners and still 3 places but the sight of so many non runners makes me think that the ground is not the good to firm as advertised.
3 course and distance winners and 1 distance winner from the 5 left makes this a tricky race but a good probability race.
540 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Secret Love, 7/2 Sahafh, 6/1 Pencarrow, 8/1 Coin Box, 12/1 Gainsboroughs Best, Submission, 16/1 Sally Friday, Traffic Sister, 20/1 Be Amazing, Hello Tomorrow, Undulant Way, 33/1 Croce Rossa, 100/1 Rio Belle.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SECRET LOVE is preferred to Sahafh. |
2 13/8 joint favs in Dettori and Godolphin Safafh and George Baker ridden Secret love.
5 debutants and 5 one time outers open to improvement.
SHORTLIST
4pm - England U21 v Lithuania U21 - 1.12 home - a strong under 21 side, at home, and under Psycho are all good pointers. Can we dismiss the 0-0 in last head to head?
1.16 over 1.5 goals is a good price. IN RUNNING
4pm - Finland U21 v Liechtenstein U21 - 1.08 home - over 2.5 goals an interesting bet here albeit in a non in running match. 1.4 over 2.5 goals
4pm - Poland U21 v Spain U21 - 1.46 away - a Spanish price I would trade only. Back them and hope they score first or lead at some stage.
7pm - Sweden v San Marino - 1.01 home - team who score at home v team who concede away = goals bet.
1.12 halftime/fulltime
1.28 over 3.5 goals is interesting in this IN RUNNING match.
715pm - Denmark v Iceland - 1.32 home - It is Iceland's recent(ish) 1-1 scorelines against Luxembourg and Leichtenstein as against the Danes' 2-2 recent friendly scoreline v Germany that could make this 1.33 backable - in running. I would consider trading if Denmark lead at any stage dependent on the price drop from 1.32
730pm - Netherlands v Finland - 1.13 home - match odds bet is safe and 1.19 over 1.5 goals is tempting ( but we must remember Van Persie and Robben are out)
745pm - Germany v Azerbaijan - 1.02 home - 1.17 over 2.5 goals is tempting for Ze Germans at home. IN RUNNING
0115am - Nadal v F Lopez - 1.54 3-0 set betting is tempting if Nadal wins 1st set and we can trade - insist on trading only her like Wozniacki yesterday.
245 LINGFIELD - I am worried that the turf venues today will see changeable ground as was the case yesterday. This is an interesting maiden 1.24 and 1.27 for the front 2 to place
Thomas Tompion would be my place only choice here based on reasonable 3rd place, progressive looking form and George Baker in the saddle.
I have a feeling Sedgefield's ground will become soft through the day. This is just conjecture but could leave a choice made now becoming a poor proposition with changing ground.
420 GOODWOOD - Longliner looks interesting here based on consistent placed form ( placed in all races at around this class and only aberration came in class 2)1.27 to place
445 SEDGEFIELD - -simple probability race here - 5 horses and 3 places. Pick one, hope he completes and does not get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race.Film festival is the place only fav at the moment .
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
7pm - Sweden v San Marino - 1.01 home
1.12 halftime/fulltime and 1.28 over 3.5 goals. Swedes look strong and with the likes of Ibra upfront, should punish a poor poor away side.
715pm - Denmark v Iceland - 1.32 home - could be worth chancing given Iceland's poor ( albeit friendly) scorelines against Leichtenstein and Luxembourg. A game I would consider trading Denmark if they lead at some stage.
730pm - Netherlands v Finland - 1.13 home - simple match odds bet the safer one?1.19 over 1.5 goals is tempting
745pm - Germany v Azerbaijan - 1.02 home - 1.17 over 1.5 goals is interesting.
245 LINGFIELD - Tommy Tompion is tempting. All weather debut today and only 3rd run ever for this 2 year old. Positives - George Baker and 53 is progressive form. 8 runners and 3 places.
Negatives - all weather debut
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