11/9

Interesting day with plentiful opportunities and the lateness of the message betrays much headscratching.


*****ONE A DAY 320 DONCASTER - back Rewilding to place at 1.3*****

I am going to take a chance here today with Rewilding to place. I am aware this is a riskier bet and I would urge those who want a safer bet to look to Real Madrid at home this evening - it is a must win already for the Special One.





Captain Bertie a trouble free selection. In the 425 Doncaster, Frankel's near market rival Farrh was withdrawn so live market followers could have backed Frankel in the win only market .I was very happy with research on Shaktar yesterday - research can act to put you off a bet as much as convince you to bet. Obolon scored and SHaktar found it difficult to score as their recent matches had foretold.
Wozniacki proved a good lay ( so to speak) against Zvonerova.

FOOTBALL
12pm - Hamilton v Rangers - 1.44 away - this will be out of the scope of the message time wise as will Zenit St Petersburg. 1-0, 0-0 ( 2-0 after extra time) , and 1-0 all to Rangers in recent head to heads hints at a tight match here.Rangers have scored 2,3,2 in their last 3 matches. Hamilton lost 4-0 to Hearts recently so this could be a worse case scenario scoreline. With Kenny Miller in great form, chat chance goalscorer anytime?+1 and +1.5 asian handicaps hint at tightness.
1215pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Tomsk - 1.26 home - Zenit have lost last 2 against Tomsk in 2010 and 2009 head to heads. It must be said Zenit at home are solid. Tomsk have lost 4 of their last 5 away matches.+1 to +2 asian handicaps
2pm - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg -1.28 home - won 6 and drawn 1 this season. 1-1, 2-0 and 3-0 at home this season. They have scored 3,2,1,3,2,3,2 this season - very consistent. Silkeborg have lost 3 away and drawn 1 0-0. All season, they have lost 4 and drawn 3.
Silkeborg have not won any of their last 12 matches.

2pm - The New Saints v Carmarthen Town - 1.25 home - last 3 in the league 2010 and 2009 all wins for The New Saints.New Saints have won their last 9 league matches at home.
230pm - Hamburg v Nurnberg - 1.38 home - 4-0, 4-0 and 0-0 in most recent head to heads for Hamburg.Hamburg have won 2-1 and 3-1 ( home and away) so far this season so are confident. Nurnberg have drawn one and lost won so far this season.
3pm - Arsenal v Bolton - 1.25 home - last 6 head to heads 2010 to 2008 have been all Arsenal ( home and away)
1-1, 6-0, 1-2 ( away win ) for the Arse this season. 68% of Arsenal's home matches last season were over 2.5 goals. So over 1.5 goals the safer bet 1.16
2 home draws and a 3-1 win over West Ham is decent enough.Lost all away matches against Top 8 last season.
+1.5 to + 2 asian handicaps
3pm - FC Santa Claus v FC Korsholm - 1.08 home - 5-1 in 2010 head to head augurs well for FC Santa Claus. Ho,Ho,Ho! Only match odds on Betfair.
3pm - Man City v Blackburn - 1.48 home - 0-0, 3-0 home win and 1-0 away loss to Sunderland - typical Man City inconsistency.
1-0 home win, 2-1 away loss and 2-1 home loss to Arsenal. Blackburn have the ability to score it would seem - perhaps goals -over 1.5 goals will include both sides.1.28 over 1.5 goals is quite big.
3pm - Newcastle v Blackpool - 1.56 home - goals please chaps?
Newcastle - 3-0 loss, 6-0 home win and 1-1 draw
Blackburn 4-0 win, 6-0 loss, 2-2 draw - 1.21 over 1.5 goals.
3pm - West Ham v Chelsea - 1.38 away - 3 losses and 3 goals in each match conceded for the Hammers against a Chelsea side who have scored 6,6 and 2 . I say it again. Goals? 1.21 over 1.5 goals. Against top 6 sides last season at home, the Hamsters drew 3, won 1 and lost 2. They look motivated against the big boys at home, but pitiful defensive performances could be severly punished.
315pm - Olympiakos v Kerkira - 1.19 home - 2-1 away loss for Oly needs to be revenged with a home win. Luckily Panathanaikos drew 1-1 so they are not way behind. Comfortable wins in head to heads - 3 times scoring 3 and once scoring 2 but these are way back in 2007. Another match featuring a likely league contender v a promoted side. +1.5 to +2.5 asian handicaps .
4pm - Omonia v Ethnikos Ach. - 1.25 home - not for me this match - no real form lines.
445pm - Rubin Kazan v Amkar - 1.41 home - 1-0 in 5 of Amkar's last 6 matches ( wins and losses) - too tight for me!
5pm - Barcelona v Hercules - 1.09 home - this should be a massacre, bloodshed at the Nou Camp.Hercules lost 1-0 at home to Athletico Bilbao and did lose 3-1 to Real Madrid in a friendly in August. This should be a good hint at what Barcelona can do. +2.5 to +3 asians back this up.
1.35 over 2.5 goals. 74% of Barca's home matches last season ended over 2.5 goals.
5pm - Inter v Udinese - 1.42 home - I am worried about the negativity that comes with the Fat Spanish Waiter - 0-0 away last match .It's always been tight between these 2 so Inter may be layable to trade?
530pm - Red Bull Salzburg v LASK Linz - 1.26 home - Reb Bull are in poor form so far this season and at first glance not a betting proposition at the odds. But they have only played one match at home and won 4-2.
Linz have lost 5 and won 1 this season. They have lost all 3 of their away matches so far this season. +1.5 to +2 asian handicaps.1.18 over 1.5 asian handicaps.
545pm - Ajax v Willem II - 1.08 home - 2-0, 4-0 and 7-0 in most recent head to heads in 2009 and 2010 for Ajax.Ajax have scored 2, 4, 3 , 5 so far this season and have drawn 1 and won 3.
1.24 for over 2.5 goals should be readily tradeable. As ever, Suarez must play
545pm - VVV v Twente - 1.45 away 2 0-0 draws started the season for Twente and 2 wins followed them where Twente scored 3 and 4 and have not conceded so far this season. This makes them a tradeable option. Hope Twente score first. 2-0 and 2-1 for Twente in head to heads.
VVV have conceded 2 and 3 in their last 2 matches and Twente are in the goalscoring groove.
6pm - Dinamo Kiev v Metalurg Z - 1.16 home - 2 draws on their last 2 matches at home for Dinamo.Have won 9, drawn 2 and lost 1 in their last 12 home matches.
In their last 6, Metalurg have had scorelines of 1-0 in 3 matches and a 0-0 so could keep it tight.
6pm - Paris St-G v Arles - 1.44 home - win draw, and 2 losses for Paris St-G. Not ideal for a home match against a promoted side. On the other hand this is a must win already. Arles only won 4 away from home in Division 2 last season , hence the reason Paris are clear favs despite being clearly out of form.
645pm - PSV v NEC Nijmegen - 1.25 home - like Ajax and Twente, PSV have been very reliable at home. 3 wins and a 2-2 draw. In the 2-2 draw, PSV were 2-1 ahead. Head to heads, 3-0 and 4-0 in last 2 head to heads for PSV. 1.13 over 1.5 goals is reasonable.
7pm - Real Madrid v Osasuna - 1.17 home - Jose Mourinho brings an 8 year unbeaten home league record with him to Real. Team news ideal here as Ronaldo might be out. Must win already with the 0-0 last week and Barca winning last week and playing Hercules this week at home.
With that in mind, the 1.17 is appealing. Real have struggled away and won at home 3-2 and 3-1.
+2 and +2.5 asian handicap signals goals.1.59 over 2.5 goals.
715pm - Sp Lisbon v Olhanense - 1.37 home - 0-0 and 3-2 in head to heads ( that 3-2 home win saw Sporting 2 goals down - great enhanced trade bet) Beware Olhananse - 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 win this season. Plenty of goals though last season when Olhananse visited the top 4.

TENNIS
5pm - Nadal v Youzhny - 1.09 - 3-0 in sets continues to be Nadal's scorelines even as his assignments get tougher.

745pm - Djokovic v Federer - 1.32 for Fed looks distinctly layable (only in a trading capacity). There cannot be much between these 2 players and it is first to 3 sets so plenty of scope for Novak to fight.

HORSE RACING
210 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Saamidd, 15/8 Waiter´s Dream, 5/2 Approve, 16/1 Waltz Darling, 25/1 Karam Albaari, 200/1 Castlemorris King.

DIOMED VERDICT: Preference is for SAAMIDD.

Saamidd - 8/11 and all red. Obviously fancied given the performances of Godolphin horses and Frankie Dettori . Only 3 under 33/1 and an obvious probability chance for Saamidd

310 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Zoffany, 2/1 Pathfork, 7/1 Janood, 8/1 Glor Na Mara, 12/1 Casamento, 20/1 A Word Apart, Samuel Morse, 33/1 High Ruler, Rudolf Valentino.

The fact that Johnny Murtagh is not at Doncaster on St Ledger day is perhaps the best tip for Zoffany. 9 runners and there are 5 only under 25/1 Pathfork is an obvious contender.

320 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Rewilding, 7/1 Midas Touch, 8/1 Dandino, Snow Fairy, 9/1 Arctic Cosmos, Joshua Tree, 14/1 Ted Spread, 33/1 Theology, Total Command, 50/1 Corsica.

DIOMED VERDICT: Impossible to oppose REWILDING whose stong-finishing Derby third had St Leger written all over it and who was a highly impressive winner of the Great Voltiegur from four of today's rivals.

2 Aiden O'Brien horses in this St Ledger and you see why Zoffany might be the bet with stable number 1 remaining in Ireland.

"impossible to oppose" Rewilding - price gapper 6/5 - - - -8/1 and look at the performance of Godolphin yesterday. Dettori takes the ride and , like Fallon, is a man back in strong form ( he is riding the best of the best admittedly)
10 runners and there are 3 over 25/1

345 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Profound Beauty, 9/4 Sans Frontieres, 8/1 Flying Cross, Kite Wood, Tactic, 14/1 Rajik, 20/1 Lady Lupus, Pop Rock.

Front 2 should dominate - Profound is Weld/Smullen and Sans Frontiers is interesting but , this being Ireland, I would stick with the irish connections of Profound Beauty.

440 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Yair Hill, 5/1 Vanguard Dream, 11/2 Kyllachy Spirit, 8/1 Weapon Of Choice, 14/1 Fine Style, 16/1 Fire Crystal, 20/1 Already Basking.

DIOMED VERDICT: YAIR HILL probably has a good chance to go one better than at Newbury where he chased home today's Doncaster Group 2 runner Saamidd.

See how Saamidd runs earlier and then decide on Yair Hill , with the able assistance of Ted Durcan.

525 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Tashqeel, 7/2 Vastitas, 11/2 Diamond Brooch, 7/1 Rich Tapestry, 8/1 Oracle, 10/1 First Sea Lord, Frozen Frontier, Velesgo, 14/1 Hadrian´s Waltz, Pirate Chest, The High Man, 20/1 Cocozza, Reasons Unknown, 25/1 Dubawi Star, Lechevalier Choisi, Stand To Attention, 33/1 Empress Ella, Il Boro, Orafinitis, Rossvoss.

Tashqeel is strongly fancied 322 form and now all red and 6/4

800 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 True To Form, 10/1 Signora Frasi, 12/1 Join Up, Woolston Ferry, 16/1 Binnion Bay, Dancing Welcome, Musical Delight, Tallawalla, 25/1 Inquisitress, 33/1 Blue Charm, Kladester, 50/1 Daily Double, Grand Honour, Melting Bob.

DIOMED VERDICT: This should be a straightforward opportunity for TRUE TO FORM to complete a rapid hat-trick.

REady winner on Thursday for Sir Mark Prescott. Seb Sanders onboard. I am always concerned with multiple handicap winners as they will lose eventually as Baralika did yesterday ( conventiently 1/2 length 4th -no I am not paranoid)
This price gap tells us a placing is the least of the expectations. A win is expected.


SHORTLIST
2pm - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg -1.28 home - goals galore for FC Copenhagen and this makes the 1.28 tradeable.
3pm - Arsenal v Bolton - 1.16 over 1.5 goals looks a good bet in this match if we don't want to commit to a specific team.
3pm - Newcastle v Blackpool - 1.21 over 1.5 goals looks a solid bet
3pm - West Ham v Chelsea - 1.38 is a tradeable price for Chelsea if West Ham continue as they have ( conceded 3 in their last 3) Over 1.5 goals again is 1.21 and looks decent enough involving both sides. BUT head to heads have been tight bar the 4-1 last match.
5pm - Barcelona v Hercules - 1.09 home - straightforward and could form part of a multiple. Over 2,.5 goals is 1.35 which is tradeable. Expect Barca do replicate Real Madrid's 3-1 in their August friendly.
545pm - Ajax v Willem II - 1.08 home - 1.24 over 2.5 goals. A double with Barca in the match odds?
645pm - PSV v NEC Nijmegen - 1.25 home - I like PSV - 1.13 over 1.5 goals or a straight match odds bet.
7pm - Real Madrid v Osasuna - 1.17 home . At least they won't lose given Jose's record. Barca expected to beat Hercules and with Real drawing their first match, this is must win territory

210 DONCASTER - Saamidd looks solid in a 2 the place race but as there are only 3 horses under 33/1 he has a good probability chance of coming in the first 2. Also Godolphin have had a good Donny.
1.32 to place.
310 CURRAGH - take the hint that Murtagh stays in Ireland? Zoffany is 1.26 to place in a likely match up with Pathfork who looks the value bet at 1.35 to place.
320 DONCASTER - if the price gap is a sign, then Rewilding should place with ease. But the St Ledger is ultra competitive. The horses are all quality.1.3 to place - the only horse under 2.5 in the place market. " best backed horse of the year!!" says Ladbrokes.
800 KEMPTON - True to form is standout price gapper of the day in this class 6 0-55 - concern these poor animals are inconsistent and concern that Sanders will do a Baralika as he did yesterday.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Newcastle v Blackpool - 1.21 over 1.5 goals
5pm - Barcelona v Hercules - 1.09 home - over 2.5 goals is 1.35 and tradeable
545pm - Ajax v Willem II - 1.08 home - 1.25 over 2.5 goals
7pm - Real Madrid v Osasuna - 1.17 home - MUST WIN already and given the Mourinho home record, this will be a draw or a win, and the markets expect the win.
210 Doncaster - Saamidd looks to have 3 opponents for 2 places here. Godolphin and Dettori . Has only had one run and always a chance the 3 main protagonists produce a tight finish. Probability wise though, he has a great chance of placing.
320 Doncaster - the best backed horse of the year? Follow the hype? Go for the place only bet at least?10 runners and 3 places and " impossible to oppose"-up 2 furlongs and a more speculative bet today.

3 Selections Chosen
1	Real Madrid v Osasuna (Laying Osasuna @ 32.33)
2	Barcelona v Hercules (Backing Barcelona @ 1.06)
3	Ajax v Willem II (Backing Ajax @ 1.05)

Trebles
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2 and 3	1.15	£100.00	£15.00

A 1.15 bet that looks safe enough






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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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