Simple time order today will solve the decision making
***** 3pm - Arsenal v West Brom, back Arsenal in the match odds at 1.25*****
Should replicate, or come close, to Chelsea's performance against West Brom
Possible multiple
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Trusting Slovakian football a grave mistake yesterday, and I pointed out the sequences pointing to a draw, but expected those sequences to be broken.
All this and Pollys Mark wins at a juicy 1.5 to place. I should go with my instinct and not be guided by the price being too high that it is offputting!
12pm - Zenit St Petersburg v FC Saturn Moscow Region - 1.33 home - head to heads 1-0(away win), 2-2, 2-1 home win, 2-2.
Zenit do not lose, but like Zilina, will they score a winner?Unbeaten in league in last 11.9 wins , 3 draws in last 12 home.
WDLDLL for Saturn recently.LLWWD last 5 aways.
2pm - Vidima Rakovski v Litex Lovech - 1.33 away - last met 2008 so Vidima newcomers/returnees to top flight Bulgarian league.
(Most recent first) - LLLLDWD in league so far. Finding life tough. LLDD at home.
DDWDWDW in league for Litex. This looks an ideal time to get a win to break these draws. Can we trust Bulgarian football.
230pm - B Munich v Mainz - 1.51 home - as pointed out last week, Bayern had to win really following 3 games without scoring. They are at home today and expected to capitalise on the fact they scored for the first time in 3 matches away from home.
3-0 and 5-2 at home in head to heads.
Only 3 head to heads 2010 and 2009 3-0 home win , 2-1 away loss, 5-0 away win for Bayern.
2 0-0 home draws on the trot is another sequence which it is hoping will end today.
Tough opponents who are 5/5 in the league with wins away 3-4 and 2-0, the latter against Werder Bremen.
Mainz are actually the form team.
Over 1.5 goals perhaps if we think there will not be another 0-0 at home for Bayern?
Mainz have scored 2 or more in all of their league matches so far.
3pm - Akademik Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia - 1.25 away - no head to heads so I think Akademik must be newcomers. DLLLLLDL = top flight looking to be a struggle. 3 home losses on the trot. 4-0, 2-1, 1-0 losses at home. 2 of the matches were tight, then they got stuffed.
WLWWWLW for Lokomotiv so far. Losses were 2-1 and 3-1 away losses. LWLW for Lokomotiv away from home. No grey areas here ( draws!)
3pm - Arsenal v West Brom - 1.25 home +1.5 asians start at. DWWWD so far for the Arse. At home, 6-0 and 4-1 against Blackpool and Bolton.
LWLDW
6-0 and 1-0 away losses to Chelsea and Liverpool. I would ignore the close score in the Liverpool match. Liverpool are poor at present. We could hope today for a near replication of the Chelsea scoreline for the Arsenal .
1.18 over 1.5 goals is the safer bet. More speculative ( and potentially tradeable) over 3.5 goals at 2.32. Early Arsenal ( or WBA ) goals will see these odds reduce.
2-0, 3-1, 1-0 Home, Away, Home head to head wins most recently.
3pm - Celtic v Hibernian - 1.31 home 5/5 for Celtic so far and 4-0, 3-0 shut outs at home. Look reliable. Great in mid week cup game when similarly priced v Caley Thistle.
WLLDD for Hibs this season. Rangers, away at Hibs, beat them 3-0 and this is the kind of scoreline we should expect today.
WWLWDW for head to heads. The loss was 2-1 for Hibs AT CELTIC.
Celtic have scored 1st in last 4 matches and are tradeable at 1.31 if they lead at any stage.
DDLL for Hibs last 4 matches.
St Mirren beat Hibs away 1-0 recently and Celtic beat St Mirren at home 4-0 recently. Good collateral form?
IN RUNNING but unmanaged market
3pm - Rapid Vienna v KSV Superfund - 1.36 home - 3 wins and 5 losses so far this season do not make Rapid Vienna a betting proposition at 1.36. Superfund have lost their last 3, and conceded 4 and 3 in their last 2. Goals here? Not in running so only over 2.5 goals option.
3pm - Rubin Kazan v Alania Vladikavkaz - 1.34 home - 1-1 in away head to head in May. Alania newcomers to the top flight.
Rubin have won their last 5 home matches. Alania away WLLLL.
4pm - Anorthosis v Olympiakos Nicosia - 1.26 home - far too close in head to heads for consideration.
5pm - Besiktas v Antalyaspor - 1.44 home WLWWD
LW at home so far this season.
Jan 2010 1-0 Besiktas away win scoring a 54th minute penalty so no goal from open play. So be cautious! They have beaten Antal in last 4 home matches.
Antal have won 2, drawn 2 of their last 4. They lost 4-0 to Fenerbache who drew 1-1 with Besiktas at Fenerbache. A good guide?
5pm - Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin - 1.3 home - 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 in recent matches for Hajduk. Not really good goalscoring form. Away side have won 3 of last 4
5pm - Lokomotiva v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.35 away
530pm - Olympiakos v Asteras Tripolis - 1.23 home - LWW so far for Oly . WDD for Asteras. More draws in the Greek league - fancy that!!
3-1, 3-0, 1-0, 3-1 in league head to heads to Oly is fairly emphatic.
530pm -Panathinaikos v Panionios - 1.32 home - 1-1, 1-0, 2-2 - tight matches for Panathanaikos so far this season.
0-1 (loss), 1-1, 1-0 (win) for Panionios.
Tight matches throughout.
2-0, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 to Panathanaikos in head to heads. Pana need to start winning - over 1.5 goals at 1.31 tells you that the Greeks have reputation for drab low scoring affairs generally.
6pm -Marseille v Sochaux - 1.45 home
645pm - PSV v Groningen - 1.45 home - 4 wins and 2 draws for PSV - unexpected 0-0 last time out. 6,3,3 goals scored at home.
Groningen have won their last 4 matches. Drew 2-2 at home against Ajax who should have won as they were 2-0 up.
PSV have won the last 5 head to heads, scoring 3,4,3 at home in those head to heads.
7pm - CSKA Sofia v Montana - 1.3 home - 1-1, 1-2 (away win) in head to heads. The 1-1 is a concern but CSKA did score first. This is in running.
1-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 for CSKA at home does not make them backable at home. But are Montana so bad?
LLLD away from home conceding 4, 3, and 2.
CSKA have had tight matches but Montana concede readily.IN RUNNING.
7pm - Genk v Zulte-Waregem - 1.53 home - 7 wins and a draw so far this season. Stick with a team in form. They did not let me down last week . They have scored 2,4,5,3 in their 4 home matches this season.2-2, 2-2, 2-1 ( loss) , 3-1 win. Goals in these head to heads.Not in running.WLDDWD for Zulte includes a 0-0 shut out away at Anderlecht. A shot across the bow therefore -they can frustrate against the big boys and away from home.Then in their last 2 matches, there have been 7 and 8 goals and 8 conceded by Zulte Waregam. What a Jekyll and Hyde side.
7pm - Levante v Real Madrid - 1.28 away - 3 wins and a draw so far. Away from home, 0-0 Majorca and 1-2 Real Sociedad. Ronaldo has scored in the last 2 matches - turning into a key component for the Special One.
Context - Barca are without Messi and away to Ath Bilbao - this is a toughie for Barca, and , while so priced, Real Madrid must get the 3 points in the earlier fixture to heap pressure on a side a crucial point behind.
LLL1-0 win for Levante. 1-4 and 1-2 at home. They should be put to the sword this evening.
Head to heads? ( again I am not sure of relevancy as the manager is so different) - 5-2 and 2-0 -these were 2008 head to heads. Interestingly asian handicaps start at +1 only. BUT there is an independent +2.5 handicap market for Levante which offers conflicting market confidence re goals.
9pm - Ath Bilbao v Barcelona - 1.66 away - watching Barca last week and the absence of Messi was huge. It is amazing the difference in the side without the little man. Hence the 1.66 quote tonight away from home against a side they drew 1-1 with last time away . At the Nou Camp it is a different story.
Villa scored last weekend which should fill him with confidence in a nervy 1-0 win.
WDLW for Bilbao so far this season. At home, it is loss and win.
3-0 and 2-1 for Barca away from home were in a Messi led side where he scored 2 goals in 2 games.
1.66 could look like cracking odds at the end of the match. I would perhaps cover a back of Barca with a 0-0 insurance bet as they are likely to find life difficult this evening and dare not lose.
915pm - Porto v Olhanense - 1.19 home - 5/5 this season and becoming a reliable betting proposition are Porto. Scored 3 in both home matches this season.
2-2 and 0-3 away win in head to heads. Last time out, Olhanense scored 2 and Porto fought back for a 2-2 draw ( great enhanced trading bet that's for sure!)
Olhanense are unbeaten this season with 3 draws and 2 wins. 2 away draws show they can shut teams out, BUT they HAVE NOT PLAYED TOP 4 yet ( Porto, Sporting, Benfica, Braga) so to what degree can we take this as a sign of strength by the away side.
Against top 5 last season, Olhanense lost 5-0, 3-1, 3-2, 5-2 and a 2-2 draw with Porto.
Goals a safe bet here?
+2 in asian handicaps . 1.23 over 1.5 goals is generous enough.
225 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Drumfire, 3/1 First Lieutenant, 9/2 Pointilliste, 8/1 Priests Road, 9/1 Oneeightofamile, 14/1 Celtic Wish, Meitheamh, Steel Park, 16/1 Derinlaur, 20/1 Lonesome Maverick, Rockfield Abbey, 25/1 Bombalong, 33/1 Cadeaux Fax, Kyoto Summit, No Score, Royal Reveille, Royalfolie, 50/1 A Stones Throw, Captain Ocana, Rebel Alliance, 66/1 Bayross, Beta Blocker, Comaun Buck, Going Nowhere Fast, Jossestown Lad, Midnight Dipper, Mr Shankly, Sandpit House, Serious Intent, The Burrow Vision.
Ruby Walsh on Drumfire, who managed 4th in the flat in a listed race last time. So if he can jump, then he should have too much flat speed for this lot. Big field mind you.
230 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 30/100 Frankel, 7/1 Treasure Beach, 16/1 Klammer, 20/1 Happy Today, Slim Shadey, 25/1 Eskimo.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Treasure Beach is on an upward curve but it will come as a shock if the unbeaten FRANKEL fails to underline his Classic credentials. |
That's what we want. A shock if he does not win. Chance the win only market? 2 places for the place only market.
305 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 White Moonstone, 15/8 Theyskens´ Theory, 8/1 Together, 16/1 Date With Destiny, 40/1 Fork Handles, 100/1 Traffic Sister.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This may well revolve principally around Theyskens' Theory and WHITE MOONSTONE. The latter should find the race run to suit if her rival adopts her normal front-running role. |
Very impressive on 10th September, this Whitemoonstone is worthy of consideration again.
5 horses and 3 under 33/1 makes for a good probability race.
415 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Makfi, 5/2 Rip Van Winkle, 7/1 Poet´s Voice, 14/1 Hearts Of Fire, 16/1 Beethoven, 50/1 Bushman, 66/1 Red Jazz, 100/1 Air Chief Marshal.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The 2,000 Guineas winner MAKFI proved himself a top-class miler at Deauville and can beat last year's winner Rip Van Winkle and Poet's Voice. |
8 runners and 3 are under 14/1 and 5 under 50/1. As ever with ultra competitive races, nothing can be dismissed.
420 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Genius Beast, 7/1 Sadler´s Risk, 8/1 Purification, Red Marling, 12/1 Indian Emperor, 25/1 Elysian Heights, Inca Chief, 40/1 Ballinargh Boy, 50/1 William Wainwright, 100/1 Ime Not Bitter.
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