back-lay-trade-horses-football: 16/9

FOOTBALL OR HORSE RACING

I will take a chance and put my faith in the betting market today

***** ONE A DAY - 300 PONTEFRACT - VALERIUS MAXIMUS TO PLACE ONLY ***** - 1.15 currently available.

I need not have been so sheepish about Chelsea it would seem. And a lesson to Fergie that playing your strongest team normally results in a win. The 810 Kempton saw a 3 horse race and 2 places on Betfair. Pausanias won which was nice.

FOOTBALL

5pm - VIFK v FC Korsholm - 1.11 home - Finnish Division 3 but odds like this, especially for a home team, are always worth checking out. 4-0 in May 2010 and a gap to 2005 indicates that Korsholm are newcomers to the division. Only match odds at Betfair. Normally with sub 1.1 we can enhance the odds with halftime/fulltime and goals bets -At www.bet365.com the halftime/fulltime for VIFK/VIFK is 1.30 which is reasonable.
1.25 over 2.5 goals is interesting too at www.bet365.com. It will, I suspect, rely on VIFK scoring all the goals and it is NOT TRADEABLE so if it is 2-0 early on and finishes 2-0 then you cannot trade out.
Korsholm have lost 11 and drawn 1 of their last 12 matches.
They have conceded 4,5,3,3,5,2,9,4,6 in their last 9 matches. Away from home they have conceded 4,3,5,6 in their last 4 interrupted by a surprising 0-0 draw.
I suggest opening an account with www.bet365.com in order to expand betting opportunities that Betfair don't allow us.
6pm - Juventus v Lech Poznan - 1.33 home - Del Piero ( who makes Michael Owen look like a spring chicken) is the man in Europa league matches, scoring against Shamrock Rovers and getting the 1-0 win over Sturm Graz.
Juve have not really been tested yet in the Europa League and this 1.33 looks a tad short for a team who are not firing domestically.Loss and home draw so far (3-3 so we can argue there are goals in the team)
2 1-0 wins at home in the Europa League against Shamrock and Sturm Graz are hardly compelling evidence to back. Perhaps another 0-0 insurance bet incase this one is tight?
Lech Poznan in the Europa League have got by opponents with 2 1-0's home and away, and later, 0-0 and 1-0 away so this could be a tactic. Look for a 1-0 away from home and a 0-0 at home. This , too, ties in with the Juve 1-0 homes making this look a very tight game , against the 1.33 Juve home odds.

6pm - Leverkusen v Rosenborg - 1.47 home - domestically there's goals in this Leverkusen side with recent scorelines of 2-2, 4-0, 3-6 ( home loss) 3-1, 2-0, 3-0 ( the 3 goal scores came against last Europa League opponents)
The 3-6 loss to Borussia is the only loss in their last 12 matches, punctuated at either side by a draw . Leverkusen, therefore, are in good form.
Last loss at home came 12 matches ago in April 2010 , 8 wins and 3 draws in the meantime.
ALL matches have been over 1.5 goals.
Rosenborg well known Norwegian side and no head to heads opens up some unknown elements.
Rosenborg have only lost one of their last 12- 1-0 to Copenhagen.
They won 10 of their last 12, with a single draw and above loss.
That loss to Copenhagen saw them out of the Champions League and into this Europa League.
The only loss away from home in the last 12 came against Copenhagen so Rosenborg are dominant domestically.
1.21 over 1.5 goals but a slight concern with tight scorelines for Rosenborg away from home in European Competition ( 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 in last 3)
Will Leverkusen's home advantage and ability to score domestically help the over 1.5 goals?
6pm - SKU Amstetten v SCR Altach - 1.38 away - Austrian Cup and Division 3 v Division 2 - not for me.
805pm - Besiktas v CSKA Sofia - 1.33 home - last met in 2006 in this competition. Turkey v Bulgaria. Besiktas have a formidable home reputation. Have lost only one of last 12 matches . Have won their last 3 matches, scoring 4 in each match. 8 of those goals came in the 2nd half so I would not be overtly concerned with a 0-0 at half time.
One home loss in last 12 came against Istanbul BB 2-0 in August 2010. At home in the Europa League, 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 so far but how is that opposition comparible with stronger CSKA Sofia?
CSKA have faced poor opposition so far in the europa league in The New Saints and Cliftonville.
DWDWWDLWLWLL in last 12 for CSKA
Away from home, WDDW ( but 2 of opponents were already mentioned New Saints and Cliftonville so form not to be taken too seriously)
Have only lost 3 of the last 12 away from home so dominant domestically
1.3 over 1.5 goals is quite high.
805pm - Porto v Rapid Vienna - 1.33 home -Portugeuse v Austrian and at first glance I would suggest the Portugeuse league is the stronger although Braga were hopelessly exposed against the Arsenal yesterday.
Porto have won their last 7 matches and are in good form quite naturally.3,2,4,3,3,1,2 goals scored by Porto is impressive.
Have won 10 of last 12 - -2 losses against French opposition in friendlies.
Porto have won their last 12 home matches, scoring 3,4,3,2,2,1,1,4,3,3,4,4 in those matches. Only twice did they not score 2 at home.
Rapid Vienna lost their last 2 matches in the league 1-0 and prior to that went on an 8 run unbeaten streak, taking the scalp of Villa in the process ( as they did last year and do put this into the context of Martin O'neill walking out)
Only lost 3 of their last 12 away but form dubious given the opposition is largely Austrian League.

1159pm - Germany U17 (W) v North Korea U17 (W) - 1.24 home

220 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 New Springs, 11/4 Macho´s Magic, 9/2 Joe Le Taxi, 6/1 So Is She, 8/1 Ted´s Brother, 10/1 Another Citizen, 20/1 Shadow Catcher, 25/1 Librettela, 33/1 Granny Anne.

DIOMED VERDICT: MACHO'S MAGIC showed promise on his debut in a warm Goodwood maiden that is working out well and he is preferred to New Springs.

Another maiden here and the market mover is So is She , halved in price to 3/1 , 11/4 in places and has the consistent 32223 placed form . New Springs has hardened at the head of the market into 6/4. Only one run but Hanigan will give it his all.
9 runners, 3 places and 3 horses at 28/1 or bigger makes this a 50/50 race we would hope, 6 horses for 3 places

255 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Swing Pattern, 9/2 Lady La Dee Da, 5/1 Eighteen Summers, 6/1 Indicative, 8/1 Atiya, 10/1 Blanket Signal, You Win I Lose, 12/1 Shongarem, Tomatin, 20/1 Maid Of The Castle, 25/1 Shaq, 33/1 Observe Elhida, Oxford Gold.

I was at Listowel yesterday for the Kerry National and a great day out it was. here we have Swing Pattern representing Oxx/Berry ( formerly Oxx/Kinane) and the horse is now odds on. I suspect he has a great place only chance albeit in a 13 runner field. BUT there are only 4 under 16/1 ( 5 under 20/1) so at this early stage it looks as if there is a lot of dead wood.

300 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Old Master Expert, Valerius Maximus, 10/1 Hygrove Gal, Rapturous Applause, 14/1 Finnker, 20/1 Another Wise Kid, Be A Good Lady, 33/1 Jay Jays Joy, Kwik Time, 66/1 Barnet Fair.

DIOMED VERDICT: VALERIUS MAXIMUS has shaped well on two recent starts and is taken to beat main market rival Old Master Expert.

Valerius Maximus got a strong mention last time out and is one of 2 dominant market leaders here.Evens, 7/4, 7/1 , 20/1 is the first 4. The fly in the ointment is this 7/1 shot. So, Valerius or Old Master Expert?
This is a 2 year old, class 5 5 furlong maiden. Can get messy over the minimum but both market principles have had a spin over the minimum trip.

310 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Man Of God, 11/4 Parlour Games, 8/1 Trend, 9/1 Ryton Runner, 10/1 Makyaal, 12/1 Elysian Heights, 20/1 Diamond City, 25/1 Trojan Touch, 33/1 Star Commander,

DIOMED VERDICT: There should be plenty more to come from MAN OF GOD and his experience should stand him in good stead against mainly unrace rival

Fallon up for Gosden on Man of God, the coincidence bet of the day with the Papal visit.

6 horses under 33/1 makes this a 50/50 race for 3 places.

320 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Silvertrees, 3/1 Red Presence, 4/1 Cafe Elektric, Goldenveil, 25/1 A Southside Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Pick of the four previous winners looks to be SILVERTREES who ran well when second in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York last time.

Favourite out leaves 4 horses for 2 places, or rather 3 horses for 2 places as there is still a 25/1 shot. Pure probability race.

400 PONTEFRACT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Ardent, 6/1 Gouray Girl, 7/1 Esuvia, 8/1 Sioux Rising, 9/1 Dametime, Rio Mist, 10/1 Pepper Lane, 12/1 Russian Rave, 14/1 Offspring, Poppet´s Lovein, Who´s Shirl, 16/1 Capercaillie, 20/1 Ishiadancer, 33/1 Filligree, Ishe Mac.

DIOMED VERDICT: A race dominated by 3yos in recent years and the younger generation is well represented again, with ARDENT most interesting.

Extreme confidence behind Ardent, all red, backed all morning and shortening and currently 7/4

525 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Winged Valkyrie, 5/1 Be Amazing, Kelinni, 8/1 Act Of Faith, 16/1 Classic Gem, Jack´s Revenge, Magic Of The Sea, 20/1 Endaxi Mana Mou, 25/1 Escala, Pleasant Humor, 33/1 Juarla, 50/1 Talking Back.

DIOMED VERDICT: WINGED VALKYRIE stands out on pedigree and form.