4/9

2 standouts today in Caroline Wozniacki to win by 2 sets to love at around 1.2 and the 445 Haydock -a 5 horse race for 3 places. Yes it is a listed race but the favourite was the original favourite when there was a full complement of runners.

*****ONE A DAY - 445 HAYDOCK - Back Measuring Time to place. Please be patient and wait for the market to become a little more liquid ( as this is a Saturday there is no real rush to place bets) *****

Some speculative alternatives? Well Rip Van Winkle is in a race with 2 " colleagues" from his stable who should help with tactics and could place again.





Universal Circus 2nd and 1.10 was available for me at the off. I hope you managed that as it was an excellent probability bet.
Sparta Rotterdam showed why I prefer trading in football. 3-1 at one stage could have been easily traded if the game was in running.

FOOTBALL
1pm - City Stars v AC Vantaa - 1.45 home - Finland D3A league - 4-0 win for City in May 2010. One collateral piece of form. City stars beat PK Keski 4-1 and PK Keski beat AC Vantaa 2-1. City stars have won the last 3 and VAntaa have lost their last 2 matches 3-1.
130pm - Marila Votice v Sparta Prague - 1.11 away - +3 asian handicap and the Czech Cup has been very reliable with the 3 mentioned matches last week all winning very easily ( Brno the exception at 2-1 coming from a goal down) - IN RUNNING
2pm- Brabrand v Otterup - 1.3 home - Denmark D3W league - away side have conceded 11 in their last 3 games . Brabrand in the league are draw - win-draw-win
230pm - Andorra U21 v Latvia U21 - 1.39 away - L-W-L-L for Latvia does not really make them reliable betting mediums for me although Andorra have lost 3-1 in their last 2 matches against the might of Faroe and Moldova!
3pm - Alfreton Town v Vauxhall Motors - 1.28 home - 3 draws in last 3 head to heads in 2010 and 2009 ( all score draws) hints at a goal bet rather than win only bet in this conference match. Alfreton have won their last 6 matches scoring 2-4-2-5-5-1 in those 6 matches.
LDWLLL in last 6 matches for VAuxhall Motors. I dismissed Alfreton last time because it was English Conference - they are certainly reliable goalscorers but given the head to heads, the draw cannot be discounted
3pm - Chelmsford v Dorchester Town - 1.3 home - conference south match - Chelmsford have won the last 4 head to heads and last 2 at home 2-1 and 1-0 indicating a potentially tight affair. Chelmsford at home have won their last 3 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 7 wins 2 draws and a loss in their last 10 at home. DLLLLL for Dorchester away
3pm - FYR Macedonia U21 v Greece U21 - 1.36 away - 3-1 to Greece in March 2009. Macedonia at home in 2010 and 2009 have been very tight. WWLLWL for Greece away included the scalps of England.
4pm - Turkey U21 v Georgia U21 - 1.4 home - 4-0 to Georgia in September 2009 means I will leave this alone
7pm - Partizan Belgrade v Hajduk Kula - 1.12 home - Serbian First Division - WWWWDW for partizan in head to heads -2 wins for Partizan this season in the league and 2 home losses for Hajduk

TENNIS
530pm - Wozniacki v Chan -1.03 - against Chang last round, Woz was superb winning 6-0 and 6-0 - 2-0 set betting again for this 3rd round for the World Number 2? 2 v 77th and head to heads on hard courts are 2-0 - In 2008 Woz lost the first set 3-6 before winning the next 2. When they next met in Pattaya City in 2009, Woz won 6-3, 6-0 - now she has come on again to be World Number 2 , that latter score should be repeated today. 1.19 is the same as the other day for 2-0 to Wozniacki.
630pm - Mathieu v Federer - 1.03 this time - was 3-0 at 1/100 last match. Same again for Fed? 4-0 to Fed in head to heads and last meeting Mathieu won the first set so perhaps not 3-0 today - 1.4 is reflective of that fact.
645pm - Clement v Fish - 1.16 Fish - has been in solid form in North America this season and as an American is playing to the home crowd. Match odds only bet for Fish here 2-1 to Clement head to heads- I am not sure how relevant these head to heads are as they occured in 2003, 2004 and 2008. Clement has also won more on the tour ( prize money) than Fish.
68th v 21st rankings. Fish has the key advantage of being American here at the US Open - Fish lost to Federer at Cincinnati which was a great effort and he clearly has the momentum. He has also won at Newport and Atlanta this year .

HORSE RACING
155 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Choose The Moment, 7/4 Picabo, 13/2 Spin A Wish, 10/1 Sleights Boy, 12/1 Kwik Lightening, 16/1 Syncopated Lady, 33/1 Guinea Seeker, Roman Ruler,

DIOMED VERDICT: Choose The Moment sets the standard but PICABO may be able to improve past her, having shown promise in a much stronger maiden than this one at Newbury over seven weeks ago.

Only 2 under 10/1 here in this now 8 runner and 3 places race. Choose the Moment is one of those 2 year old maidens with 2 2nd places ( one over 6 and one over 5 furlongs) With only 8 runners and 3 places, a reasonable opportunity to finish in the first 3. 1.15 both favourites.

215 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Hooray, 4/1 Signs In The Sand, The Paddyman, 11/2 Reckless Reward, 20/1 Little Lion Man, 25/1 Fifth Commandment, 50/1 Grandmas Dream,

DIOMED VERDICT: HOORAY has a penalty to shoulder for her Lowther success but she is fully effective under the conditions and should make another bold bid despite her wide draw. 7 runners but still 3 places on Betfair makes this an interesting race, as does the fact that there are 2 horses at 25/1 and one at 66/1 who hopefully play no part in this race. The front 3 look strong and cannot really be split by the betting. Although Signs in the Sand has only been running in class 4 and class 5 maidens, Dettori could be the difference that ensures the place? 255 THIRSK BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Green Lightning, 7/2 George Adamson, 9/2 Lady Luachmhar, 13/2 Ethics Girl, 8/1 Brouhaha, River Ardeche, 10/1 Snow Dancer, 12/1 Kames Park. DIOMED VERDICT: GREEN LIGHTNING didn't seem to quite get home over 1m6f at York last month and remains just 5lb higher than when beating subsequently very useful Harris Tweed (pair clear) at Newmarket in May. Green Lightning is 5/4, all red and well backed this morning. Mark Johnston handicapper and De Sousa employed today. A return to 1 mile 4 furlongs obviously the ticket if the market is to be believed. An 8 runner race and 3 places - potentially competitive as the price of the outsider at 16/1 suggests. 335 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Starspangledbanner, 9/2 Regal Parade, 9/1 Kingsgate Native, Markab, 10/1 Lady Of The Desert, 12/1 Borderlescott, 16/1 Rainfall, 20/1 Doncaster Rover, Genki, Prime Defender, 40/1 Our Jonathan, 50/1 Barney McGrew, Serious Attitude, 66/1 Sir Gerry, 100/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 200/1 Fullandby. DIOMED VERDICT: STARSPANGLEDBANNER can bounce back from his 5f defeat to beat Lady Of The Desert and Regal Parade. Sandwiched in 2nd between 2 100/1 shots last time out over 5 furlongs. A return to 6 furlongs could be the tonic today. Murtagh is in Leopardstown today so O Donoghue deputises. 345 LEOPARDSTOWN BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Rip Van Winkle, 7/2 Twice Over, 13/2 Cape Blanco, 10/1 Sea Lord, 25/1 Beethoven, Famous Name. This is why Murtagh is at Leopardstown. Rip van Winkle odds on here. Famous Name is being strongly supported and his 3 wins on the trot have been impressive, albeit in lower company. Beethoven and Cape Blanco will be a help to Rip. 350 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Biondetti, 2/1 Darej, 10/1 Above All, 25/1 Ari Gold, DIOMED VERDICT: BIONDETTI was impressive at Newmarket on his debut and the subsequent wins of the second and fourth make him the one to be on here. If we can discount the clearly priced outsider, then this is a 3 horse race for 2 places. Above All is the fly in the ointment at 7/1 in the betting and is a debutant so we would have to trust the betting market. Biondetti has the able assistance of an in form Dettori. 445 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Measuring Time, 4/1 Robin Hood, 6/1 Sonning Rose, 12/1 Rhythm Of Light, 20/1 Claret´N´Blue, Singapore Lilly, DIOMED VERDICT: MEASURING TIME is progressing along the right lines and shapes as though this trip will suit. Robin Hood is also likely to relish the extra distance and is respected along with Sonning Rose. This 8 runner race is now reduced to 5 runners with Measuring Time still there, and an obvious place only contender under Ryan Moore with 2 to beat to place in the first 3. 505 LEOPARDSTOWN BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Long Live The King, 3/1 A Word Apart, 4/1 Eagle Canyon, 10/1 Gleadhradh, Unique Style, 12/1 Exodus, Joint Decision, 25/1 Phoenix Dance, 33/1 Kalanore. Now 8 runners and dominated by 2 Ballydoyle horses in Long Live and Eagle Canyon. It is the latter who is now favourite. Only 4 horses under 25/1 here should dominate making this an interesting probability race . Top 4 horses in this race O'Brien ( Eagle Canyon backed from 4/1 to 11/10 in places) O'Brien - Long Live the King - Murtagh stable number 1 Weld/Smullen - A World Apart O'Brien - Exodus - a debutant 530 STRATFORD BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Whereveryougoigo, 7/4 Music In The Air, 10/1 Littledean Jimmy, 25/1 Avon Gale, 33/1 Lavender Grey. DIOMED VERDICT: This looks to concern only WHEREVERYOUGOIGO and Music In The Air with slight preference for the former, who showed a good attitude to win at Hereford. A bumper so no obstacles and obvious chance for Whereveryougoigo. 5 horses and only 3 under 25/1 540 THIRSK BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Corsicanrun, 9/4 Mutajare, 5/1 Colebrooke, 10/1 Blake Dean, Marc De Savoie, 20/1 Our Mate Joe, 25/1 Smart Violetta, 33/1 Kodicil, 40/1 Sister Sioux, DIOMED VERDICT: Derby entrant CORSICANRUN could be well up to the task. He has impressive credentials, being a well-bred colt who cost 175,000gns and represents a top stable that won the second division of this maiden with a debutant last season. Positive market signals would cement his appeal. Indeed Corsicarun has been supported for this maiden. As Diomed tells us, impressive credentials but importantly has not run yet on a race course under race conditions so strictly conjecture. Of logical appeal, therefore, would be near market rival Mutajare who represents that man Mark Johnston. Form last time not that impressive but, hey, he at least has form, is priced at 9/4 to be competitive and represents a strong stable who know the time of day, especially up at the Northern tracks. 650 WOLVERHAMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Hypnotic Gaze, 7/2 Into The Light, 4/1 Shannersburg, 5/1 Country Road, 9/1 Search For The Key, 10/1 Novestar, 25/1 Leomode, 33/1 Guppy´s Girl, 40/1 Jetta Joy, 50/1 Avon Rock. DIOMED VERDICT: HYPNOTIC GAZE could take some stopping if back near the form of his runaway C&D win in July A seller so not the ideal betting medium but now an 8 runner race and only 4 under 20/1. Hypnotic Gaze of immediate interest under Steve Drowne. SHORTLIST 130pm - Marila Votice v Sparta Prague - 1.11 away - Czech Cup has been very reliable and is also in running. 1.11 signals goals and , if replicating Teplice and Sigma who were similarly priced, we could see 5 from Sparta. Goals bet for the more speculative/traders - over 3.5 goals albeit in very illiquid markets at Betfair. 2pm- Brabrand v Otterup - 1.3 home - looks good for Brabrand but , like Sparta yesterday, this is not in running so if Brabrand go 2 up as Sparta did, we have no way of ensuring profit and returning stake before the match ends 7pm - Partizan Belgrade v Hajduk Kula - 1.12 home - only match odds at Betfair but current form suggest a Partizan win. 530pm - Wozniacki v Chan -1.03 - Wozniacki looks the real deal here in these early rounds. 1.2 for 2-0 sets to Woz is very tempting, but in an illiquid betfair market at present. 155 THIRSK - Picabo the one for market support here after a fading 8th on debut in a big field maiden. Choose the moment is near 2nd favourite. Both horses are 1.15 to place. Do I go with the money ( Picabo) or the form (Choose the moment's 2 2nd places) 215 KEMPTON - Signs in the sand would be my preferred horse under Dettori , but is taking a marked step up to Pattern company today. This race should be dominated by the front 3 in the betting. Around 1.3 to place for Signs in the sand signals a bit of trepidation. 335 HAYDOCK - " keep the faith" suggests Spotlight regarding Starspangledbanner who is 1.4 to place after finishing 2nd last time out. 345 LEOP - Rip Van Winkle is expected to come in the first 2 here - 1.37 to place . Famous Name the most interesting big market mover from 25/1 to 14/1 445 HAYDOCK - standout probability race much like yesterdays - 5 runners and 3 places and Ryan Moore on the original favourite. 540 THIRSK - only 3 under 18/1 -favourite is a debutant. 2nd fav is of interest having had 2 runs but was poor last time out having done too much too early. Still priced to be competitive and from the Johnston stable 1.3 to place SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 130pm - Marila Votice v Sparta Prague - 1.11 away - now down to 1.08 and a pity it is so illiquid as goals bets could have been a good bet. In running 530pm - Wozniacki v Chan -1.03 - 1.2 currently for 2-0 in sets and if she plays like 2nd round 6-0 6-0 there will be no look in for Chan here. 445 HAYDOCK - standout probability race today - 5 runners and 3 places - Measuring Time for Ryan Moore looks primed to not get beaten by 3 others in a 5 horse race. Robin Hood for Aiden'O'Brien may be a ready alternative at a better place price ( based solely on the stable) ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

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