Elsewhere, my standouts from the football are Sparta Rotterdam, and Netherlands goals bet v San Marino ( despite absence of Van Persie and Robben and return of Van Nistelrooy)
*****ONE A DAY 400 BRIGHTON -BACK UNIVERSAL CIRCUS TO PLACE ONLY. TRY TO GET 1.10 MINIMUM HERE****** - An illiquid betting market at present, if there is not enough money at 1.10 minimum, I personally am happy to take a chance on 7pm SPARTA ROTTERDAM v FORTUNA SITTARD - BACK SPARTA ROTTERDAM IN THE MATCH ODDS MARKET AT 1.22 CURRENT PRICE (PLENTY OF TIME UNTIL KICK OFF SO NO NEED TO PLACE BETS YET -infact wait to see if there is enough money in the 400 BRIGHTON)
A very pleasing message yesterday with all definitivef shortlist of shortlisters coming in ( I could not comment on the 740 Clonmel at time of writing)
Israel won 3-1 and at 1-1 they were backable at as high as 1.22 to enhanced bettors.
Brno conceded as I hoped and then equalised.
Wozniaki spanked Chang 6-0, 6-0, and Federer, as was his wont as a 1/100 shot, won in 3 straight sets.
Tiger Creek placed also.
FOOTBALL
5pm Kazakhstan v Turkey - 1.29 away -in running - +1 to + 2 asian handicaps - worse case a draw, best case a 2 or 3 goal Turkish win. Turkey have won 5 of their last 6 games, but 5 were friendlies . The most impressive recent result for Kazakhstan would have had Borat beaming - 2-1 home loss to Croatia and that only came by way of a 93rd minute Croat winner.
This is a standout result in a World Cup qualifier and represents the Kazaks at their best. A note of caution therefore for the Turks. Turkey are in Group A with Germany likely to dominate. Must win these matches they are priced to win. Guus Hiddink is the new Turkey manager and a manager of some calibre. 1-1 and 2-1 away loss for Turkey in 2006 head to heads.
530pm - Andorra v Russia - 1.02 away +3.5 is where the asian handicap starts - unbackable in the match odds market but we can enhance odds with halftime/fulltime Russia/Russia or goals bets -over 1.5 goals is 1.1 which is massive ( relatively speaking for a 1/50 shot) and over 2.5 goals is a juicy 1.3 which is suspiciously high. Last time these 2 met in 2007, Russia won away 1-0 and home 4-0 - now we understand the relatively big goals odds!!
Russia have only scored 5 goals in their last 6 matches - which again tells us a little regarding the relatively big over 2.5 goals price ( for a team priced so low, I normally default to over 3.5 goals with a degree of confidence but Russia seem to be goalshy - albeit against better sides than Andorra)
With Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko upfront for Russia, surely they can better that poor 1-0 last time ( although put into context it was a must must win for Russians and maybe nerves played a part.)
A recent game against Estonia proved Andorra could dig in. 1-1 in the 90th minute only for a late 2-1 Estonian win.
6pm - Faroe Islands v Serbia - 1.13 away - 2 2-0 scores in head to heads put Serbia in the driving seat, as does their experiences in the World Cup this summer. Patience would be the watch word today as the Faroe Islands at home are likely to be tough to break down ( it took until the 44th minute last time for Serbia to score)
Expect a hard fought and tight Serbian victory ( 1.13 layable away from home at least early doors)
7pm - Almere v Cambuur - 1.63 away - over 2.5 goals a call perhaps with Almere's 3 games thus far being overs. 12-1 loss to Sparta stands out. NOT IN RUNNING
7pm - Romania v Albania - 1.41 home - last met in 2007 - 6-1 Romanian win. Recent performances do not make Romania standout for me today. +1.5 asians augurs well for the market makers.
7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard - 1.22 home - 2 wins and a loss so far for Sparta adn their one home match saw a 12-1 mauling of Almere. They face another newly promoted side they have not played since 2005 . 1.43 over 2.5 goals NOT IN RUNNING. Sparta are obviously full of goals ( or at least their games are - all over 2.5 goals so far) Fortuna have conceded 3-4-3 in their 3 Division 2 matches so far. This looks like a good time to back Sparta.
7pm - Sweden v Hungary - 1.45 home head to heads in 2009 and 2008 were 2-1 wins for Sweden. Ibra up front and he is still world class despite some Le Tissier'esque absences in matches. Sweden are unbeaten in 2010 with only one draw. Hungary have lost their last 5 against Sweden. New coach for Swedes sees return of Ibra and a return to more attacking style which may make Swedes tradeable ( back at 1.45 to lay off if they lead at any stage) Hungary have not won in their last 5, only drawing 1 - +1 and +1.5 asian handicaps reflect the fact that Hungary beat Denmark 1-0 away in a World Cup qualifier - tight game expected ( as the other 2 have been)
715pm - Luxembourg v Bosnia - 1.24 away - Luxembourg have not won any internationals in their last 11 matches ( my records do not go further) L-D-L-L-D-L-L-L is their record at home in internationals in 2010 and 2009. Bosnia have lost their last 3 away matches ( friendlies against Germans and Sweden and 1-0 loss v Portugal ) +2 ASIAN handicaps is a positive sign.
730pm - Estonia v Italy - 1.47 away - likely to be tight and unexciting from a goals perspective, Italy look very layable here -draw experts recently, and lacking a spark
745pm - Belgium v Germany - 1.58 away -2-0 home win for Ze Germans in 2008. THey were one of the most impressive units at the World Cup under a very astute manager and this is a biggish price away to Belgium if Ze Germans do not have any major injury worries.
RE Belgium
"Leekens lost no fewer than five players to injury in the days leading up to the Germany fixture"
Belgium have lost all six of their contests with Germany since German unification
THis looks a solid German side with only the aging Ballack a major absence. Backable at 1.58 and tradeable if Germans are leading at any stage.
WARNING - Belgians have a solid looking defence with the likes of Van Buyten, Company and Vermaelen all excellent defenders. Marry that with walking microphone Fellaini as the midfield spoiler and this could be why the Germans have breached 1.5 in the match odds. Interestingly, there is an independent market on Betfair " Beligum +1.5 goals" - a hint from the market makers?
In 4 of their last 5 matches, Germany scored 2,3,4,4 - just to make life a little easier and totally contradict the above warning!!
745pm - Greece v Georgia - 1.44 home - 2 relatively poor sides and no interest personally
745pm - Liechtenstein v Spain - 1.02 away - a strong Spain squad will do a Caroline Wozniaki to this lot. +3.5 asian handicaps start tells all. THis is pretty much Leiechtenstein v Barcelona-ish and they really should be spanked like Max Mosley.Standout for Liech at home was a 1-1 draw v Finland ( they lost the other recent home matches) Spain's last 4 matches have all been 1-0 or lower but we must remember this was tournament play and the opposition was better.
1.25 halftime/fulltime is tempting as is over 2.5 goals at 1.29.
• Liechtenstein have yet to register a goal against Spain,
Potential stumbling blocks - complacency - world cup winning hangover - 16 game unbeaten record will end sometime but not priced to end today.
745pm - Northern Ireland U21 v San Marino U21 - 1.04 home - again look to goals - 3-0 in March 2010 - Norwood the goal threat for Northern Ireland who performed well at home against Czechs and Germany - it is a good under 21 side who should dispatch San Marino. The question is how many they can score? Asians start at +4!! Now that's optimisitic! 1.24 over 2.5 goals but an illiquid betting market. IN RUNNING
745pm - San Marino v Netherlands - 1.01 away - unbackable Oranje but again goals and halftime/fulltime to enhance odds. +4.5 asian handicap start 1.12 over 2.5 goals and 1.4 over 3.5 goals - 3-7-5-7-10-3 conceded ngoals for San Marino
No Robben today -a blow as always but against this opposition may not matter. Horse face returns for NEtherlands. 1.16 halftime/fulltime with bookies for Holland/Hollandn is a nice price. 1.15 at bet365 for over 2.5 goals is liquid at least .Van Persie also out - is horse face up to it coming in from the international wilderness?
In their four fixtures against the Oranje, San Marino have yet to score a goal, with the aggregate scoreline a somewhat punishing 23-0 in the Netherlands' favour.
8pm - England v Bulgaria - 1.3 home - Adam Johnson typifies the kind of player England should be seeking throughout the ranks. No bet for me despite obvious England chance of success given previous qualification record.
8pm - France v Belarus - 1.38 home - new manager -3 of best players suspended makes this a watching brief for the Frenchies.
8pm - Shelbourne v Salthill Devon - 1.18 home 2-0 and 3-0 2010 head to heads augur well for Shelbourne but this is Irish First Division football where the strange happens regularly.
845pm - Portugal v Cyprus - 1.22 home - Portugal impressed at the World Cup , much to many's surprise as they were reknowned as coupon busters during qualification ( and I remember the Cape Verde match too much to my embarrassment) This , at least , is a competitive match. Cyprus have kept things tight in recent times - Ronaldo out is the big news here
Portugal's record in eight games against Cyprus reads W8 D0 L0 (W4 D0 L0 at home). +2 on the asian handicap
TENNIS
715pm - A Murray v Brown - 1.02 Murray - chance 3-0 sets again? He won with ease in the first round when similarly matched despite my reservations regarding the heat. 1.3 is tempting for 3-0 sets betting for Murray
4th v 123rd in the world should go the way of Fed's match yesterday which saw a similar gap in the rankings. No head to heads
HORSE RACING
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Winnie Dixie, 4/1 Sadafiya, 5/1 Dubai Affair, Whoateallthepius, 6/1 Millyluvstobouggie, 9/1 Magic Stella, 14/1 Second Encore, 16/1 Saucy Buck.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A competitive nursery with two unexposed types in Sadafiya and Winnie Dixie likely to be popular. They are taking a step down in trip, however, and the greater experience of 5f specialist MILLYLUVSTOBOUGGIE may be decisive. She has something to find with Whoateallthepius on Sandown running but is better judged on her previous C&D win which has worked out very well. |
An interesting place only race as this is an 8 runner race now with 7 runners and 3 places. There are 2 clear outsiders at 20/1 or bigger and 2 market leaders strengthening in the betting in Winnie Dixie and Millyluvstobouggie -the latter a significant market mover.
1.37 and 1.66 the 2 mentioned to place.This should be a 5 horse race for 3 places.
350 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lost In The Moment, 9/2 Lunar Victory, 5/1 Autumn Riches, Sarrsar, 6/1 Titbit, 14/1 If I Were A Boy, Muwakaba, 33/1 Exceedthewildman, Nurture.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LOST IN THE MOMENT, who is one of the market leaders for the Cambridgeshire, can complete his hat-trick at the expense of Autumn Riches and Sarrsar. One of the market leaders for the Cambridgeshire and has Ryan Moore returning on board - v interesting! Class 5 and class 4 handicap winner - this is class 3 - only 5 under 25/1 makes this an interesting race. 400 BRIGHTON BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Universal Circus, 7/2 Timeteam, 4/1 Frequency, 9/2 The Human League, 7/1 Prize Point, 10/1 Giulietta Da Vinci, 20/1 Ravens Rose, 33/1 Mororless, 50/1 Dudley.
4 runners remain but still 3 places on Betfair makes this a standout probability race particularly as original 33/1 shot Mororless remains as 11/1 outsider now. 1st and 2nd favourites remain in this race -very interesting indeed if there is liquidity. 410 MUSSELBURGH BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Fox Hunt, 9/2 Smarty Socks, 6/1 Good Again, 7/1 Faithful Ruler, Jonny Lesters Hair, 8/1 Dhaular Dhar, 12/1 Ahlawy, 16/1 Templetuohy Max, 20/1 Ezdeyaad,
Fox Hunt won his maiden and is thrust into class 2 handicaps on only 2nd run. Of interest as this is a Mark Johnston favourite. 420 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Youm Al Mizayin, 5/1 Mind The Monarch, Slasl, 11/2 True To Form, 7/1 No Complaining, 8/1 Cuckoo Rock, 9/1 Barberhoney, 14/1 Sparkys Gift, 16/1 Red Eddie, Silken Aunt, 20/1 Trelicia.
barney Curley gamble on No complaining now all red 2nd favourite 435 KILBEGGAN BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Gentleman Jeff, 6/1 Mister Castlefield, 8/1 Belville View, 10/1 Betabob, 14/1 Flare Star, 16/1 Emerson Breeze, 25/1 I Mbeal An Phobail, 33/1 Alroy, Dohora Lady, Jaabill, Uno Mas, 50/1 Cosmic Rose, High Style, 66/1 The Dingle Way. Strong market leader with 3 2nds in maiden hurdles 535 KILBEGGAN BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Without The Bop, 7/2 Hesaposer, 4/1 Eventide, 6/1 Minella Bliss, 8/1 Loch Na Beaste, 10/1 Whats Up Gorden, 16/1 Greengables, 20/1 Moscow Towers, 25/1 Kerzak, Ocean Swell Jelly, 33/1 Andrew´s Hill, Buachaill Ban, Flaming James. Hesaposer - Carberry and Elliott and backed into 5/4 - take note!! 815 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Quiet Oasis, 7/4 Fluvial, 4/1 Zing Wing, 6/1 Adorable Choice, 33/1 Rural Pursuits, 50/1 Lady Ellice, 200/1 Blazing Apostle.
Only 3 under 33/1 makes this a very interesting race. Quiet Oasis looks interesting at 8/11 in what should be a 3 horse race for the 2 places. SHORTLIST 530pm - Andorra v Russia - 1.02 away - can the goalshy Ruskies put their drought to bed today? Over 1.5 goals at 1.1 is massive for a 1/50 shot as is 1.3 for over 2.5 goals BUT -poor recent goalscoring form -1-0 last time away to Andorra BUT Pavlyuchenko Arshavin We saw yesterday the difference between a poor Israel and a poor Malta was Premier league benayoun and his hatrick. 6pm - Faroe Islands v Serbia - 1.13 away - Serbia likely to prevail but patience required today for Serbia backers 7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard - 1.22 home - there seems to be a degree of solidity to this bet as Fortuna have conceded 3-4-3 in their 3 league matches and Sparta's sole home match saw a 12-1 win NOT IN RUNNING alas and if the market is not liquid then the bookies have Sparta at 1.2 745pm - Belgium v Germany - 1.58 away - remember Spuds v Wigan recently - Champions League hangover - does this kind of thing happen to international sides? And with ze super efficient Germans? This looks the standout price of the day for me with some Belgian squad injuries. I would back Germany at 1.58 and look to trade if they lead at any stage. 745pm - Liechtenstein v Spain - 1.02 away - read above re World Cup hangover. Chock full of some of the best players in the world in their positions, Spain should spank this lot making over 2.5 goals at 1.29 very compelling. What is not compelling is Spain's sparce goalscoring record this year. A clicking Spain could post a cricket score. This makes over 8.5 goals a highly speculative bet here with trading in mind. 745pm - San Marino v Netherlands - 1.01 away - this could be one of the safer bets of the day from a goals perspective, but with Robben, Von Brockhurst and Van Persie out, it is up to Ruud horse face to fill in the gap. That said, 3-7-5-7-10-3 conceded by San Marino augurs well for over 2.5 goals at 1.12 ( 1.15 with bet365) and halftime/fulltime Holland/Holland at 1.16 interesting 350 LINGFIELD - with only 5 under 20/1 this offers market leader and Cambridgeshire fancy Lost in the moment a good probability chance of placing 1.3 to place - despite being evens. all red and well backed in places, this is a competitive looking class 3 . Fav up in class today so may be vulnerable 400 BRIGHTON - THE race of the day from a probability perspective - Time team and Universsal Circus the 2 for me with the former 1.05 and the latter 1.12 in a very illiquid betting market. Still any selection has one to beat to place and considering too that original 33/1 favourite still remains, this is a great race 435 KILBEGGAN - Gentleman Jeff should place barring a fall etc ( as this is a maiden hurdle)m - 1.14 to place SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard - 1.22 home - looks a home win here - not in running or tradeable -a team who score v a team who conceded a minimum of 3 in all matches so far. 745pm - Belgium v Germany - 1.58 away -amazingly Germany have drifted to 1.7 away since I have been writing this blog. Why? In that case, then, Belgium look layable at 6.4 which is a 1.17 back bet. Still Germany could be the value bet today even at 1.7 if we have hope they will lead at some stage. 745pm - Liechtenstein v Spain - 1.02 away - 1.29 over 2.5 goals is in an illiquid market so perhaps use the bookies. Why so high? Yes Spanish not exactly swcoring bucket loads but against this opposition they should. 745pm - San Marino v Netherlands - 1.01 away - looks one of the strongest bets of the day given the concession rate of San Marino - 1.36 over 3.5 goals can be tried but the markets are illiquid at present 400 BRIGHTON - one of those probability races that come along once in a while and should be exploited. Universal Circus has a good place only chance if remaining at 1.11 to place -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94 |
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