back-lay-trade-horses-football: 20/9

***** ONE A DAY -4pm - CSKA moscow v Sibir - back CSAK in the match odds at 1.18*****

My form analysis points to a strong home performance here it is hoped.

Nice of Chelsea to oblige in the first half. The pessimist in me wondered why I did not choose over 3.5 goals as that was far more likely given Arsenal's 6-0 performance.

Ritual, the only shortlisted horse won, and Barca game was comfortably over 1.5 goals and Anderlecht won.

FOOTBALL
230pm - Hungary U17 v Andorra U17 - 1.09 home - a key to the likely scoreline could be in the collateral results against Ireland. Hungary drew 1-1 and Andorra were beaten 5-1. Over 2.5 goals is likely.
230pm - Slovakia U17 v Faroe Islands U17 - 1.14 home - last win for Faroes was September 2008 and they have lost the 10 matches between then and now, hence the reason Slovakia are so short. England beat Faroes 8-0 but only beat Slovakia 2-0.
Slovakia beat Malta 2-0 and this is the likely scoreline for a team who have lost 4 of their last 5 matches ( albeit against teams better than Faroes)
4pm - CSKA Moscow v Sibir - 1.18 home - April 2010 saw a 4-1 away win for CSKA. This is recent enough to be a good enough yardstick and the fact it was an away match adds to the confidence for backing CSKA at home in this Russian League match. CSKA have won 8 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
3 home losses in last 12 - one against Inter Milan. Last 3 homes 2-1, 4-0, 4-0 ( one was European League qualifier)
Sibir have lost 7 of their last 9 matches. They have recently beaten PSV 1-0 at home - an eyecatching result.
Have lost their last 7 away from home ( including 5-0 away loss to PSV which takes the gloss off the above result as PSV did not need to win away at Sibir)
Anzhi Makhachkala is good collateral form. CSKA recently beat them 4-0. In their last away match, Sibir lost 1-0 to Anzhi.
THis is a good yardstick, I would argue.+1.5 to +2.5 asian handicaps indicate the market expects a CSKA win and at least 2 goals. IN RUNNING1.21 over 1.5 goals.
530pm - Steaua Bucharest v Astra Ploiesti - 1.37 home - won May 2010 head to head 2-0 but lost 2-1 to Astra in previous head to head away at Astra in November 2009. These are the only 2 recent head to heads.5 draws on the trot for Astra - a sequence that can be broken? Astra have scored in ALL of these score draws which is a good sign for goals but a signal that Steaua could be in for a tough afternoon.1-0 loss and 1-1 draw in league for Steaua was sandwiched between 2 Europa league losses , most recently 4-1 away to Liverpool.
Home form has been exceptional. Steaua have won 10 and drawn 2 of their last 12 home matches. And the 2 draws were against the same team Timisoara - coincidence or bogey team?
Last 4 league matches have been tight -1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-1
This is not good news for facing draw experts Astra.
An interesting match. Strong home side but only winning by 1 goal recently against an away side who can score against opponents and NOT lose .
If we have faith that Astra will score, then over 1.5 goals is an obvious bet? 1.32 is a suspiciously high price though. This is in running.
645pm - Nacional v Porto - 1.53 away - 0-4, 3-0, 1-0, 4-2 in 2010 and 2009 head to heads are all Porto wins. The most striking is the 0-4 away win for Porto. 7 goals in their most recent 2 league head to heads augurs well for tonight at a nice enough 1.53.
4 out for 4 in the league
2 home wins.
2 away wins 1-0 and 2-0.
Nacional?
0-1 away win
2-1 home win v Benfica ( very interesting result as Benfica can be put in the same category as Porto/Sporting Lisbon /Braga)
3-1 home loss then to Guimaraes ( makes the Benfica result look like a weakness on Benfica's part rather than any improvement of Nacional's?)
2-1 away loss to Leira.

The 4-0 last time did see Nacional down to 10 men by the half hour mark - tiredness the cause of the drubbing?
Porto have won their last 8, including a win over Genk who are perhaps the in form side in Belgium presently.
3-3-2-4-3-3-is the goals Porto have scored in their last 6 matches.
Nacional have lost their last 2 league matches against mediocre opponents ( relative to Porto) 2-1 and 3-1.
Prior to these losses , though, Nacional won 7 and drew 3 of their last 10. BUT 4 of those wins were in friendlies against perhaps not the strongest opponents.

Clearly Porto are on a role here?

210 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Present Danger, 11/4 Inside, 4/1 Sovereign Street, 14/1 Magnini, Meniscus, 16/1 Hollyhocks, Marina Belle, 25/1 Lough Corrib, 33/1 Crabbies Gold.

DIOMED VERDICT: High-profile owners Andrew Black and Michael Owen shelled out 200,000gns for PRESENT DANGER and they must have a chance of immediately getting some of it back given the standard set by the form horses is only ordinary. Positive market signals would cement her interesting credentials.

Talk about reputation before form!! Present Danger strong favourite for this maiden based on ZERO runs but owner's reputations.

3rd fav a non runner and obvious alternative to the debutant in the Hanagan ridden Inside who has 2 3rd places.
8 runners and 3 places and a betting market that needs to settle after the recent significant non runner.

240 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Tax Free, 3/1 Knot In Wood, Rileyskeepingfaith, 9/2 Global City, 8/1 Quest For Success, 20/1 Rash Judgement,

DIOMED VERDICT: Tax Free could take some beating if connections deem the ground suitable to run. Knot In Wood has an impressive course record but RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH wasn't far behind him on worse terms in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday and may be able to gain a deserved success.

The defection of half the field should signal that the ground is perhaps of some concern? Good to soft says the Racing Post.
1st and 3rd favourites are non runners so surely Tax free is a logical place only chance here ( NOTE ONLY 2 PLACES) Rash judgement , original outsider, is still a runner. This should be a 3 horse race for 2 places.
I will need to find out more about the ground.

300 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Complexion, 5/2 Submission, 4/1 Jahanara, 10/1 Ayaarah, 12/1 Etarre, 14/1 Lucky Legs, 20/1 Abeer, Kilk, Sukhothai, 25/1 Delphi Dream, Dubawi Dancer, Melancholy Hill, 50/1 Carrauntoohil.

DIOMED VERDICT: COMPLEXION has the paper credentials to extend the stable's fine win record in this race. Submission is the obvious threat on form but may struggle to deliver from stall 1.

A tricky maiden with 2 market leaders and a huge market mover in Abeer, now into 7/1
Submission represents Fallon/Cumani and Fallon has been in the form of his life recently. Always good to have a form jockey on your side.

A race , though, that is far from clear cut with a few debutants and one time outers including near joint favourite Complexion.

330 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Terdaad, 11/4 Divine Rule, 100/30 Flodden, 6/1 Aciano, 14/1 Plattsburgh, Salaamie, 16/1 Diocese, 20/1 Invigilator, 33/1 Swift Blade, 66/1 Laafhd, Windsor Knights, 100/1 Royal Talisman.

DIOMED VERDICT: Terdaad is likely to do a lot better here than at York (when some 8l behind Flodden) but DIVINE RULE shaped very encouragingly over C&D and should come on for that experience.

Terdaad is odds on now for Dettori and Godolphin. Initial run poor. Only 5 under 20/1 and only 6 under 33/1 would indicate a focus on the front 5 or 6 for the 3 places in this maiden.

335 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Corkonian, 9/2 Belville View, 8/1 Galianna, 10/1 Derinlaur, Grangeclare Rhythm, 12/1 Controversial, Gathabawn Lily, Red Star Boy, Vardas Hall, 16/1 Lake Pontchartrain, Michelle´s Express, 20/1 Chinook Run, Newmarket Story, 33/1 Grove Dale, The Rebel Cat,

Coincidence bet? Cork won the Sam Maguire yesterday and Corkonian sees Walsh/Mullins in this maiden hurdle.
Not run since April 2009.

350 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Peace Corps, 15/8 Layla´s Lexi, 100/30 Essexbridge, 16/1 Marafong, 20/1 Second Brook, 33/1 Le Petit Vigier, Massachusetts.

DIOMED VERDICT: This may be between LAYLA'S LEXI and Peace Corps.

A class 6 claimer hardly screams out for us to get involved but the market may persuade? Only 3 horses under 20/1 for the 2 places?

410 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Pearl Huntsman, 7/2 Broadway Dancer, 9/2 Crimson Empire, No Rain, 12/1 Machir Bay, 16/1 Tayacoba, 25/1 Harsh But Fair, 40/1 Psalm Twentythree, 100/1 Rukhsana, Strong Aim.

DIOMED VERDICT: PEARL HUNTSMAN is the only runner on the card for a top Newmarket trainer who has a good strike-rate at Hamilton and, with the form of both his races working out well, he can make the long journey pay off.