*****ONE A DAY 715pm - Israel v Malta - back Israel at 1.09 match odds***** - competitive Euro 2012 qualifier and home advantage. +2 on asian handicaps and the market expects. 38th in the rankings play 151st.
I must add a note that there are some good looking other bets today which I did not put up for lack of liquidity - namely Wozniacki and Brno over 1.5 goals.
The best horse bet looks to be between Tiger Webb and the 740 Clonmel. I have plumped for Israel as the most straightforward bet of the day but will dabble in some others in a good looking day.
I need not have been so pessimistic yesterday as Spa's dancer won well, Murray won in 3 sets and Teplice won by the odd goal in 5. I do hope those taken by the arguments for Spa's Dancer got involved there.
FOOTBALL
4pm - Rosice v Zbrojovka Brno - 1.28 away - in running - Brno have lost 5 of their last 6 matches and have conceded 5,3,1,3,3,3 - at least Sigma and Teplice were in better form. 4th level Group d ( and the 2 teams in 2 days who have both conceded 5 goals all came from this 4th division. +2 asian handicap for Brno despite their poor form albeit in a better league. Over 1.5 goals is 1.16 which is tempting as it involves both sides. The hope is either for a replication of the Sigma and Teplice scorelines or Brno concede and reply with a quick equaliser!
5pm - Ilves v KaaPo - 1.31 home - Finnish D3B league -Ilves won 2010 head to head 3-0, but lost 1-0 in 2009 then won 4-1. Was that 1-0 loss an aberration? For without it Ilves would have scored 7 in 2 games against KaaPo. Ilves have lost their last 2 at home and KaaPo have won their last 2 away.
715pm - Israel v Malta - 1.09 home - in running - this is not a friendly which is good news. Asian handicaps put Israel in the driving seat , giving Malta a minimum 2.5 goal head start. Sub 1.5 indicates a worse case 2 goal win, best case 3,4,5 goal win for the Israelis. Both sides have only been playing friendlies of late so we do not really know their strengths from recent competitive outings.
38th v 151st in the rankings and the odds reflect this.
• Israel's record in six games against Malta reads W4 D2 L0 (W2 D2 L0 at home).
1987 and 2003 saw the draws.
Israel's personnel have a number of big club players whilst the most notable club for Maltese players is Hibs!!
A difficult group F sees this as a must win for Israel with home advantage.
TENNIS
6pm - Wozniacki v Chang - 1.04 Woz - 1.19 2-0 in sets and Woz annihilated her first round opponent ( as I put up in the message a couple of days ago) - confidence should be high again - 2nd v 84th in the world, Caroline should stamp her authority again. 6-4 6-3 in 2010 Wimbledon. Tight enough matches but Woz importantly got the breaks in serve in both matches.
715pm - A Beck v Federer - when you are priced at 1/100 , 3-0 should be a formality?
2nd in the world and fav for the tournament playing 104th in the world. No head to heads. 1.26 for 3-0 sets betting to Federer.
HORSERACING
Class 6 handicap and apprentice riders race starts the day today - hopefully not a sign of the type of racing on offer today!
200 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Malpas Missile, 5/1 Eyes On, Regal Kiss, 6/1 Better Self, 13/2 Mossgorda, 10/1 Alhoni, Bernisdale, 16/1 Bradbury, 20/1 Mayan Flight, 25/1 Microlight.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MALPAS MISSILE was possibly caught out by the track when just failing to get up on her first try over this trip at Lingfield and warrants another chance, especially as she's up 4lb in future |
Good consistent form for Malpas Missile , bar a single 4th of 6 ( which came in a class 2 ) Malpas has placed in all runs and was a short head 2nd last time out over this trip.
As ever, there's always a niggle - 5 lb claimer up for this 2 year old handicap. Malpas is " up 4lb in future" so can he take advantage today? PRice gapper 7/4 - - - -5/1 and 1.43 to place. Trust 2 year olds?
230 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Heartbreak, 9/4 Insolenceofoffice, Saltergate, 10/1 Breezolini, 33/1 Snow Legend.
| DIOMED VERDICT: INSOLENCEOFOFFICE shaped well after meeting trouble on his debut and is open to plenty of improvement. |
3 horse race now and the 3 left cannot be split in the betting. 1 will not place - which one? Place only prices are likely to be competitive given we have practically 3 joint favourites.
250 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tiger Webb, 4/1 Time To Work, 5/1 El Maachi, 8/1 Pigeon Hollow, 10/1 Coachlight, 16/1 Cuban Piece, Hurricane Spear, 20/1 Flinty, 25/1 Precious Diamond.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Derby entrant TIGER WEBB was beaten a whisker on his debut and looks the one to beat. |
Tiger Webb is pretty much a winner running in another maiden having failed by only " a whisker" on debut. One of only 2 under 12/1 , we have the eternal conundrum of one time outers in maidens replicating sole run ( after all these 2 year olds still have L plates on)
Tom Queally retains the ride which is a positive. Time to work is the only other horse under 12/1 in the live betting market.
350 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Margot Did, 9/2 Rimth, 12/1 Ishbelle, Sweet Cecily, 14/1 Brevity, Perfect Tribute, Tale Untold, 16/1 Fifth Commandment, 25/1 Ladyanne, 33/1 Mortitia.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Things have not really worked out for Margot Did the last twice and, with waiting tactics likely to be employed again from her draw near the far rail, she again needs the gaps to open up at the right time. Her form claims are obvious in this lower grade but she is less certain to secure an uninterrupted run than RIMTH, who does not have much to find on York running and looks open to improvement. |
Hayley Turnips on Margot Did whose form of 11222 makes her an obvious place only contender. The last time I backed a filly in a listed race, she refused to leave the stalls!! Temperamental madams at the best of times. As a top flight race there are rivals who are strong. Ideal ground and trip for Margot today in a race which looks to revolve around the 5 under 20/1 in the live betting market.
440 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Echoes Of History, 4/1 Ideal Match, 9/2 Peaks Of Fire, 14/1 Pinsplitter.
Price for Echoes is 4/7 in the live market at present. Interestingly Wachman has the strong market leader and the outsider ( consipiracy theorists may point to a backing of the outsider in a 4 horse race?)
Echoes and Ideal should dominate ( Lordan/Wachman and Weld/Smullen)
500 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 The Wee Chief, 3/1 Matterofact, 7/2 Green Velvet, 13/2 The Jobber, 15/2 Imaginary Diva, 8/1 Doctor Hilary, 16/1 Nollaig Shona,
| DIOMED VERDICT: THE WEE CHIEF wasn't beaten far after a luckless run off this mark at Sandown last time and may be the answer, ahead of Matterofact. |
5 runners and 3 places still on Betfair makes this a superb probability race. It is a pity that the non runners are all relative outsiders.
THe Wee Chief was original market leader so stay with him? Richard Hughes onboard and we could not wish for a better jockey on our side. It must be said that 4 of the 5 remaining are closely matched in the betting so this is no gimme but what it is is a good probability race.
530 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs La De Two, 7/2 Bauer, 4/1 Free Agent, 10/1 Peligroso, 12/1 Swingkeel, 14/1 Shahwardi.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LA DE TWO should be hard to beat. |
It is the old guard who have been in form of late ( Fallon and Dettori) Frankie takes the ride on La De Two who is now as short as 1/2 . There are only 2 places alas but another solid jockey booking and market confidence should ensure competitiveness at the business end.
Godolphin have a 2nd horse at 14/1 and there are 2 horses priced as outsiders ( this 14/1 shot and another at 20/1)
640 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Captain Sully, 7/2 Bluebell Rock, 6/1 Redzer Gazgoff, 7/1 Flight Control, 10/1 Azaboy, 14/1 By The Sea, 16/1 A Stones Throw, Locky, 20/1 Fiddler Lake, Minstrel Girl, Wild And Innocent, 33/1 Barnamhuine, Lucky Dolphin.
Has this ever happened before? Ruby Walsh on a short priced maiden hurdle favourite?
Although a maiden hurdle, Captain Sully has run 4 times with form of 3,6,2,4
720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Norman Orpen, 5/2 Dirakh Shan, 4/1 Spirit Of Love, 11/2 Tariq Too, 8/1 Status Symbol, 33/1 Marksbury, 50/1 Bigern, Knowledgeable, Shesasnip, Superstitious Me.
| DIOMED VERDICT: DIRAKH SHAN is taken to get off the mark after a much more professional display last time. |
If the live betting market is right, this should revolve around 4 under 25/1 . Dirakh and Norman have the experience and are expected to dominate.
740 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Anderson McAuley, 11/4 Presenting Nama, 6/1 Littletown Lass, 13/2 Optic Measure, 10/1 Heather Rose, 14/1 Branded, 16/1 I Might Surprise, 20/1 Indian Romance.
Mullins/Mullins on Anderson in this national hunt flat race. 8 runners and 3 places makes this an ideal place only candidate ( naturally we need to look again at the market nearer to 740pm)
No obstacles to worry about though. 3 horses are currently 25/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted.
SHORTLIST
4pm - Rosice v Zbrojovka Brno - 1.28 away - in running - I suspect if this were the FA Cup, the ITV cameras would be down at Rosice waiting for a potential upset. Brno conceding like Derby in the Premiership. Goals bet has both sides for us. Over 1.5 goals a reasonable 1.16 - it is an illiquid market alas. 3-0 to Brno is only 7/1 and is shorter than 1-0 Brno!! Asian handicaps begin at +2 goals for Brno. My hope with the neutral over 1.5 goals bet is
- Brno play to their potential and win as a Premier League side should do against Division 4 team ( Teplice and Sigma dispatched their Division 4 opponents with a total of 10 goals scored to 2 )
- Brno concede ( as they have in the league) and equalise eventually thus guaranteeing over 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals bumps the odds up to 1.13 but the market is poor so we may have to resort to match odds at 1.09.
Speculators/traders may adopt the over 3.5 goals stance which came in with Sigma who were similarly priced .
The good news is that this is a competitive meaningful fixture and the difference in the FIFA world rankings should be shown this evening.
6pm - Wozniacki v Chang - 1.04 Woz - 1.19 2-0 in sets - 1.12 is the Bet365 analysis of Woz's chance of winning 2-0 in sets.
This makes the 1.19 stand out for World Number 2 to win 2 sets to love. She obliterated her opponent in the first round when similarly priced. I am unsure as to the effects of the heat today. But this is a level playing field for both players. Unlike the men's game, this is the first to 2 and not 3. Once momentum is hopefully gained in the first set, it can usually continue into the 2nd set.
World number 2 v 84th in the world.
200 REDCAR - I would put this into the speculative category for Malpas Missile. Positives
-short head 2nd up to this trip last time out
-price gapper
-due to go up 4lb in future
-consistently placed
NEGATIVES
-2 year olds - unreliable generally
- change in jockey to a 5lb claimer
-1.43 to place tells us this is no gimme
230 REDCAR - write out these 3 horse names. Stick them in a hat, and pick one. That's the only way I can make a choice in this race where all 3 are pretty much favourites. 2 will place , 1 will not.
If you want to follow the place market, then Insolenceofoffice is the one to place at a reasonable 1.23 ( prices will be good as this is competitive)
250 EPSOM - Tiger Webb " went into the notebook as a surefire maiden winner."One of only 2 under 12/1 and around 1.13 to place.
Negatives?
- one time outer and automatically expected to repeat initial run
-all weather to turf - turf debutant today
-2 year old maiden.
Positives
- Tom Queally retains the ride
-short head 2nd last time out and that is as near as damn it to being a winner without being a winner.
-only one of 2 under 12/1 in the live betting
500 SALISBURY - only mentioned as this is a 3 places and 5 runner race, with one runner at 10/1 and the other 4 are priced between 9/4 and 7/2
Pure probability this race and difficult to chose one , and for simplicity sake, I would go with the market leader, currently the Wee Chief under Richard Hughes .
530 SALISBURY - " the one to beat" this La De Two under Dettori. 4/7 currently - up in trip to 1 mile 6 furlongs and 2 places only are the niggles. 1.22 to place.
740 CLONMEL - looks a great chance for Anderson Mcauley to place in this bumper race. Did put in one poor run at Galway but 2nd last time is good sign. Another to consider is 2nd favourite Presenting Nama whose form of 3332 is reasonable. Need to view market nearer the off.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
4pm - Rosice v Zbrojovka Brno - over 1.5 goals today but the market is too illiquid for me to put it up as a one a day. The price will collapse to a poor valueless price.
715pm - Israel v Malta - 1.09 home - the obvious bet of the day and that is what we are after. Enhance with goals bet but with illiquid markets ( albeit 7 hours prior to kick off) match odds should prevail for 38th ranked side playing 151st. + 2 asian handicaps should come in.
6pm - Wozniacki v Chang - 1.04 Woz - 1.19 2-0 in sets - slight concern with the 6-4 Chang managed in grass at Wimbledon this year in 2nd set ( may fight back if losing 1st set) , World Number 2 is in good form though and 1.19 outstrips the 1.12 at the bookies. Another illiquid market means I cannot really put up as a one a day
250 EPSOM - Tiger Webb - I am taken by the fact this is a winner in waiting ( short head 2nd and positive Spotlight) -Queally remains onboard. Derby entry and expected to place with ease.
500 SALISBURY and 230REDCAR can be coupled together as superb probability races but both market accentuated by tight prices.
740 CLONMEL - needs inspection nearer the off but should be dominated by the front 2 in this 8 runner race.
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