back-lay-trade-horses-football: 18/9

*****ONE A DAY - update at 630pm today as Genk and the 820 Wolves look the most solid bets today*****

Ultra speculative head on today and Wolves +1.5 in the asian handicaps may give us a run for our money at 1.57. Abergavenny would seem to have a chance today. REal MAdrid back (to trade) or back with a 0-0 insurance cover.

The unpredictability of 2 year olds. Valerius, a great chance, unplaces, and once raced Khawlah won mightily impressively. Rainbow Peak was beaten by the mention Dangerous Midge, anad Trabonspor scored first for a good trade and over 1.5 goals despite losing the match.

The hope, this Saturday, is for plenty of opportunities . We are , as ever, at the behest of what is on offer.

FOOTBALL
1245pm - Stoke v West Ham - I am not interested in the match odds, rather the fact that there are some patterns emerging with the Hamsters. Look at the Hammers' scorelines so far - 3-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-0 all losses. This sequence must end soon. They have not scored away from home yet and Stoke is hardly the place for them to bust the onion bag. It is highly unlikely that they will concede 3 again.
Do you see where I'm heading with this? A narrowing down of possible correct score and goals bets.
2-1, 1-2, 2-0 ( all losses) and 2-1 win for Stoke. Another pattern here is the 2-1 scoreline at home ( loss and win) and the fact over 1.5 goals have obliged in all matches thus far.

1pm - H Rostock v Burghausen - 1.42 home - division 3 in Germany - 3 1-0's and a 0-0 in head to heads but that was 2008 and earlier.
Burghausen have only won 1 away from home in their last 12 matches.
3 wins on the trot at home For H Rostock in the league - scoring 7, 2,3.
230pm - B Munich v FC Koln - 1.23 home - Poor form so far for Bayern - 2-1, 2-0 loss and 0-0 draw at home v Werder Bremen.
0-0, 0-0, 1-2 against Koln in last 3 home head to heads -DDDWLW for head to heads do not make Bayern obvious back bet at 1.23, neither does the form so far this season, although a win and a draw is fair enough. Beware too the Champions League hangover.
Koln have lost 3-1 and 4-2 and won one home 1-0 against newcomers St PAuli which perhaps swings things in Bayern's favour again regardless of the head to heads?
So the question is " is Koln a bogey team for Bayern as the 3 draws latest in heads to heads indicates OR is the concession of 7 goals in 2 games enough for us to overlook head to heads and oppose Koln?"
Market expecation? Koln get a +2.5 goal handicap quote and a +1.5 minimum asian handicap quote. The market expects them to capitulate.
230pm - Werder Bremen v Mainz - 1.61 home - over 2.5 experts continued in the same vein against Spurs mid week. - 0-0 latest against Bayern scuppered the over 2.5 goal clockwork regularity of Werder as previous 4-1 loss and 4-2 wins testified ( and the Spurs match mid week)
2010 and 2009 head to heads are over 2.5 goals ( 2-1 win and 3-0 home win) - 1.61 hints at a tighter game .
10 of Werder's last 12 games have been over 2.5 goals.( including one 2-0 scoreline)
8 of Mainz's have been over 2.5 goals. ( including 3 2-0 scorelines )
1.14 over 1.5 goals is reasonable in this context then ( over 2.5 goals is a quite high 1.5)
3 out of 3 wins so far for Mainz this season is perhaps a good reason to opt for the goals neutral bet.
3pm - Crawley Town v Gateshead - 1.41 home - Gateshead have won last 2 head to heads which confuses the odds for me!5 wins, 2 draws and a loss for Crawley this new conference. 3 losses, 3 wins, 2 draws for Gateshead. Gateshead have conceded 7 in their last 2 away matches
3pm - FC Hochst v Austria Lustenau - 1.19 away - Austrian Cup - very illiquid market on Betfair - Division 3 RM v Division 2.
3pm - KSV Superfund (Am) v Austria Vienna - 1.14 away - 1.11 at bet365 for another Austrian Cup match
3pm - Rangers v Dundee Utd - 1.44 home - 2-1, 3-0, 2-1, 2-1 so far for 100% Rangers. Can't ask for more than that, BUT they have conceded in 75% of matches thus far. 1-1, 0-4 ( home loss) , 1-1 and 3-1 home win. Dundee United have scored in 75% of their matches this season. WDLD for Rangers in head to heads ( albeit 2 cup games and they are played differently I suspect). Goals the option here?1.24 over 1.5 goals.OR back Rangers at 1.44 and hope they lead at some stage OR back Rangers with a 0-0 cover given the 0-0 and 1-0 recent scorelines in head to heads.
3pm - SV Gaflenz v FC Wacker Innsbruck - 1.1 away - Wacker have won their last 5 matches in Division 1 and Gaflenz have lost 5 of their last 6
3pm - Tottenham v Wolves - 1.53 home - Bogey team? Wolves have won the last 2 meetings 1-0 indicating they can keep the leash on Daniel Defoe, Crouch et al. Van Der Vaart is some class signing and could be the difference?
2-1 win, 1-1, 1-1, 2-1 loss for Wolves - they keep things tight.
0-0, 1-2(away win), 1-0 loss, 1-1. Again Spurs are cocking it up against weaker teams such as Wigan and West Brom as they did last season. I would back Wolves with a +1.5 asian handicap start here - it seems reasonable and Spurs will have to win by 2 for this to be a losing bet.
330pm - Spiez v Young Boys - 1.07 away - Swiss Cup
330pm - Uznach v Neuchatel Xamax - 1.11 away - 1.04 with Bet 365
330pm - Vojvodina v FK Metalac - 1.32 home - Serbian league and Metalac won 3-1 in last 2010 head to head . Metalac have lost 9 of their last 11, drawing the other 2. Last 4 matches have been 3 1-0 losses and a 0-0.Voj have won their last 3 2-0
4pm - Flawil v St Gallen - 1.1 away - 1.04 away with Bet365
5pm - SC/ESV Parndorf v Sturm Graz - 1.42 away - illiquid market
545pm - Groningen v Excelsior - 1.42 home - last head to head 2008 but Grongingen have won the last 5 head to heads. 2 draws and 4 wins so far for Grongingen with the highlight a 2-2 draw with Ajax when 2-0 down. Despite 1-0 win last time, over 1.5 goals may appeal. 3-0 loss and 1-1 draw for Excelsior so far away from home.All 5 games over 1.5 goals and 4 games over 2.5 goals.
Groningen only really lost against top 5 at home last season.
1.17 over 1.5 goals.
6pm - Crvena Zvezda v Javor - 1.25 home - sharing head to heads recently again questions whether Crvena are backable at 1.25 today. 6 draws and a loss in last 7 for Javor. This hints at a tight game, along with the head to heads being shared. Crvena have won their last 3.
7pm - FC Timisoara v Sportul Studentesc - 1.44 home - no tangible patterns here but Sporting are newcomers to the top flight and their games have generally been overs.
7pm - Genk v Lokeren - 1.41 home - 5 wins and a 2-2 draw for Genk - great form. 6 games over 2.5 goals. Genk have scored 2,4,5,5,4,2 -good consistent goalscoring. At home, they have scored 2,5,4. LDDLDW for Lokeren. Genk obviously in the better form. All games have been over 1.5 goals.1.19 over 1.5 goals. 1.39 is backable with trading in mind.
745pm - AC Milan v Catania - 1.34 home - 4-0 home win and 2-0 away loss. Another with a potential Champions League hangover.2-2, 2-0, 2-0 1-0 for AC Milan in head to heads.In April Calcio took a 2-0 lead. Are AC Milan in better shape? Have they got rid of some of the OAP's?
2-1 away loss and 2-1 home win for Catania. Logic would go with a home win.
AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 12 matches.
LWLDLDLDDLWL for Catania away from home. Last away win was in a friendly against Ascoli.
8pm - Arles v Marseille - 1.6 away Arles at home have lost 2 games 1-0 and away have lost 2-1, 2-1 and 4-0 and are facing a Marseilles side with LLWDD this season. Poor form and lost 2-1 to another newcomer this season. Back Marseille with a 0-0 or 1-0 (Arles) cover?
9pm - Sociedad v Real Madrid - 1.39 away - 2009 and 2007 head to heads both wins for Real Madrid, but under Mourinho they are different and seem a lot more cautious although mid week in the Champions League they were very impressive from an attacking sense.
0-0 and 1-0 so far this season.
1-0 win and 2-2 for Sociedad . Newcomers to the league . Perhaps a cover of 0-0 - they are likely to load midfield and park the bus and a back of Real Madrid.18 only for 0-0 tells you a lot about the market's thoughts re a stuttering Madrid in the league.

235 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Bear Tobouggie, 4/1 Always Dixie, 5/1 Miss Wendy, 8/1 Bring Sweets, Miss Whippy, 16/1 Barra Raider, Green Army, 25/1 Lord´s Seat, 33/1 Destiny Rules.

DIOMED VERDICT: MISS WENDY should appreciate this longer trip and gets the tentative vote in a weak race.

Class 6 seller is a poor race. Always Dixie might be competitive for Fairley/Johnston in a race where only 5 are under 25/1

325 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Taking Stock, 7/2 Questions Answered, 4/1 Hegrid, 8/1 The Hares Corner, 10/1 Isourbell, Mirador Del Conde, Rockys Choice, 12/1 John The Soldier, Mats Teacher, Mission Possible, Our Symphony, Torremuelle, 14/1 Ardglen, 20/1 Enfield Chase, 33/1 Cofrem Shadow, Silver Palm,

Ruby/Martin did the business yesterday and Hegrid is already backed into favouratism.

345 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Abergavenny, 5/1 Granston, 11/2 Folk Tune, 13/2 Destinys Dream, 8/1 Burnett, 9/1 Arizona John, Record Breaker, Sir Royal, 20/1 Ahlawy.

DIOMED VERDICT: ABERGAVENNY (nap) is entitled to still be progressing and could be tough to beat.

Fairley/Johnston on a strong market leader - Johnston market leaders generally perform admirably. We must recognise this is a handicap.

405 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Spirit Is Needed, 5/1 Dance The Star, Essexbridge, 11/2 Relative Strength, 6/1 Cool Strike, Quarante Deux, 7/1 Resplendent Light, 20/1 Archie Rice.

DIOMED VERDICT: There are no solid win options but SPIRIT IS NEEDED has managed a victory this season and he has a good chance on the ratings. Quarante Deux is next on the list.

Fanning/Johnston this time albeit in a poor claimer. 8 runners and 3 places and horses who are not the best.

415 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Tazeez, 9/2 Fair Trade, 9/1 Green Moon, 10/1 Steele Tango, 16/1 Layali Al Andalus.

DIOMED VERDICT: Very hard to see beyond front-running TAZEEZ, whose placed form in Group/Grade 1 company entitles him to win easily in this much daunting contest.

"very hard to see beyond" and entitled " to win this easily".
2 places - 4/7 and 8/13 presently. This is a class 3 and he has placed form in group company.

505 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Laughing Boy, 6/1 Firm Foundations, 7/1 Paintmaker, 8/1 Lady Samphire, Masked Phantom, 10/1 Easily Pleased, Gallilei, Regal Ambition, 12/1 Charging Indian, Double Seven, Tony´s Treasure, 14/1 Summerlea, 20/1 Guestofthenation, 25/1 Balarouge, Merdaam, Piercetown Kit, 33/1 Ciaras Journey, Macklycuddy,

Walsh/Mullins again deserve respect but watch out for market movers.

540 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Pittoni, 7/2 Acclaimed, 5/1 Cloone Rocket, 13/2 Mr Clyde, 12/1 The Buck, 14/1 Belle Chose, Career Move, Gentleman Jim, 16/1 Ballyvoile, Leanne, 20/1 Clonsilla Fath, Grand Cru, Pagan Magic, 33/1 Alroy, 66/1 Lunaburg.

Flat race should be dominated by front 4 if the market is accurate ( all others 25/1 or bigger) and at time or writing Mr Clyde is the biggest mover into 2/1

820 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Biographical, 2/1 Jaridh, 10/1 Holy Mackerel, 12/1 Cuban Piece, 66/1 Bournefree, Jelyvator, Lettering, Punt Road.

DIOMED VERDICT: BIOGRAPHICAL made a pleasing debut at Bath last month and with improvement in the offing, he should be hard to beat this time.