The 440 Redcar is a simple probability race. Yesterday, I dismissed Clear Reason's form ( 3rd placed was 100/1 so the form may have been weakened) Today I have checked the form but what we have is the problem of absences. The favourite Tomodachi cannot be backed as we are simply guessing as to why he has been absent for nearly a year, particularly after running so well in a red hot maiden.
Tariq too is the obvious alternative for me in this 440 race as a horse who was a short head and neck 3rd over 1 mile 1 on 19th July.
*****ONE A DAY - No bet today. I cannot put up a class 6 2 year old seller at 1.11 despite the feeling this ultra consistent sort will place - the race type is such that anything can happen*****
The 2 races are strong but niggles abound on a Monday where, as mentioned , there are 16 class 6 races.
I expect the above 2 bets to be successful but the race types are the sort where shocks are not really an , erm, shock!!
A weekend that would have been made a lot easier had I stuck to the football like I traditionally do. Yesterday, AEK won, AFG won, Plzen won, Levski Sofia won ( and in 2 of those matches by 7 goals) and the South Korea/Germany game saw goals.
To add to the misery, the lay of Federer to trade was superb as Djokovic put up a real battle.
My analysis and research on football is a lot more solid. Clear Reason managed 4th in a race where the first 3 were neck,neck. Traded at 1.03 in running but did not place, and all the while, much to my great frustration, all the football selections were winning with great ease.
FOOTBALL
5pm - Trabzonspor v Sivasspor- 1.47 home - head to heads 2009 and 2010 3-1, 2-1 away win and 3-0 away loss for Trab. Trab have won the last 2 head to heads and in those matches, Sivasspor have managed to score which could indicate an over 1.5 goals bet?
2 wins and a draw so far for Trab included a 3-2 win at home v Fenerbahce - - hints they are in good shape.
Home win, away draw, home loss for Sivasspor is inconsistent given that first win was against Galatasary - quite a scalp!
Trab only lost 3 at home last season and Sivasspor only won 2 away last season.
1.36 at Ladbrokes and likely to shorten during the day on Betfair in order to fall in line?.
Very early in the Turkish season to be ultra confident but it would seem that Trab are the most consistent and if replicating last year's clashes v Sivasspor , they should win. 1.32 over 1.5 goals
745pm - Bohemians v Drogheda - 1.29 home - Drogs have only won one away from home. Against Bohs, last 2 results home and away were 1-0 losses which makes 1.29 a bit too short for comfort.
4 wins and a draw in the league in the last 5 for Bohs.
7 losses and a draw in last 8 matches for Drogs.
78th and 91st minute winners for Bohs shows this is likely to be a tight match - pity it is not in running as it would be a great trade.
8pm - Monaghan Utd v Athlone - 1.29 home
Home team Monaghan have a home record of 8-2-3 (W-D-L) for their 13 home games this season, 26 points from a possible 39. That's a home points average of 2.00 compared to 2.00 for all games this season. Monaghan's recent points average is 2.50, 15 points from 6 games 5-0-1 (W-D-L) Monaghan's last 10 league games record reads WWWDWWLWWW (WDWWLWWWWW) while their last 10 home league games read WWLLWWWWWW (DLWWWWWWWW).
Away team Athlone Town have an away record of 2-5-6 (W-D-L) for their 13 away games this season, 11 points from a possible 39. That's an away points average of 0.85 compared to 1.00 for all games this season. Athlone Town's recent points average is 1.00, 6 points from games; Athlone Town's last 10 league games record reads LLLDDLDWLD (LLLDDLDWLD) while their last 10 away league games read DLDLWLLLDD (LDLWLLLLDD).
3 draws in last 4 head to heads signals potential goals bet here.
10 wins , a draw and a loss in their last 12 tells you why they are short odds.
Monaghan have won their last 6.
DLWDLDDLLL for Athlone in their last 12 matches.
DDLLL for Athlone in their last 5 aways. Last 3 aways see 2 draws and a 3-2 loss, but they have not played a side as highly rated as Monaghan .
9pm - Japan U17 (W) v New Zealand U17 (W) - 1.16 home ( illiquid market) - over 2.5 goals again perhaps. NZ have kept things tight enough
Japan's last 2 matches saw 11 goals.
NZ's last 2 matches saw 7 goals.
9pm - Venezuela U17 (W) v Spain U17 (W) - 1.22 away - 1.14 with the bookies so if someone wants a likely trade then back Spain at 1.22 and 1.21 and the price is likely to fall in with bookies prices as the day progresses ( this happened last time and is a good method of trading in illiquid markets)
Japan beat Venezuela 6-0. Spain beat Japan 4-1, ergo Spain should win easily this evening?
This match is in running and over 2.5 goals needs to be liquid.
210 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Nawaashi, 6/1 Jade, Royal Hush, 7/1 Mon Visage, Simayill, 10/1 Lady Paris, 12/1 Indian Giver, 16/1 Strictly Pink, 25/1 Ever Roses, 50/1 Ice Girl, 66/1 Tea And Sympathy, 100/1 Belles Boudier.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It will be disappointing if NAWAASHI is not up to this task after a satisfactory start behind classy Soraaya. Mon Visage may give her most to do. |
Nawaashi is a Mark Johnston horse so immediately commands respect but is another one of those maiden horses who have had a good initial run. Now 5/4 and all red, he is fancied to run well, albeit in an 11 runner 2 year old maiden with 3 debutants and 5 one time outers open to improvement.
250 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Janet´s Pearl, 11/4 Knox Overstreet, 7/2 Saxonette, 10/1 Baby Driver, 14/1 Indian Dip, Lough Corrib, 16/1 Red Snapper, 20/1 Likeable Lad, 100/1 Immacolata, Kings Arms, Red Ears, Tom Bowler.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks good for JANET'S PEARL, who boasts by far and away the best form and seems to try hard enough despite all the near misses. |
2nd favourite is a significant non runner making Janet's Pearl the obvious recipient. Now 4/7 and with 4 2nd places, she runs in a class 6 2 year old seller. This is typical of the poor quality of racing today where the majority of races are class 6 ( next stop Blackpool Beach).
310 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Badeel, 7/2 Ullswater, 4/1 Abjer, 5/1 Mojolika, 6/1 Defence Of Duress, 33/1 Xenophon, 40/1 Smart Violetta, 100/1 Be My Spy, Logans Rose, Santorino.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Godolphin charge BADEEL may prove a potent newcomer. |
The live market sees only 5 of the 10 runners under 40/1. Badeel is the favourite for Godolphin but is a favourite - simply we do not know how he will run.
340 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Timocracy, 5/1 Applaude, Ra Junior, 7/1 Joinedupwriting, Media Stars, 12/1 Navajo Joe, Phantom Serenade, 25/1 Princess Aliuska, 33/1 Inside Knowledge, Mojeerr, 40/1 Karate Queen, Melkatant, 50/1 Igneous, 100/1 Napoletano.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Ra Junior was running off marks in the 80s in the spring but the recent evidence suggest prolific selling winner TIMOCRACY is the more reliable proposition today. |
Timocracy again? 4th last time out in a novices hurdle but ultra consistent in, guess what, a class 6 seller.
350 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Fremen, 11/2 Baltimore Jack, 6/1 Bolodenka, 9/1 King Of The Moors, 12/1 Finsbury, 16/1 Lakeman, Newtons Cradle, 20/1 Intersky Charm, 33/1 Catcher Of Dreams, 50/1 Captain Peachey, Power Desert, 200/1 Murphys Future.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FREMEN's record in this sort of race makes him hard to oppose. |
Another strong market leader, but look at this race type - a class 6 claimer.
440 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Tomodachi, 3/1 Tariq Too, 7/1 Silvery Moon, 10/1 Chaqueta, 25/1 No Thank You, 50/1 Seven Sons, 100/1 Briary Mac, Kirkby´s Gem, Kookie, One Cat Diesel.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TOMODACHI is very hard to get away from given how well her debut effort has worked out. |
What Diomed does not tell us is that debut was back in October 2009 - why the absence. This race is very interesting in that there are only 4 horses under 25/1 and 5 horses under 50/1.
Tariq too then, for me, would be the value bet,
Poor race type continues as this is a class 5 maiden.
445 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ardnavalley, 3/1 Hill Of Dyrick, 7/2 Lonesome Dove, 6/1 Benefit Scheme, 12/1 Double Feature, Meitheamh, 14/1 Some Gem, 16/1 Joseph´s Rose.
8 runners, only 4 under 14/1 and a market mover in Lonesome Dove into 7/4, all red - hurdles race so they all have to finish.
515 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Salute Him, 7/1 Clancy Strand, 9/1 Rockazar, 10/1 Run For Charlie, Vinnes Friend, 14/1 Banna Man, Clonsilla Fath, Georgie, Split Ear, 16/1 Carrleoni, City Hustler, Clu Agus Cail, Credit Box, Jowango, Premier Rouge, 20/1 Mission Possible, 25/1 Siberion, 33/1 Numen,
Ruby Walsh for Tony Martin 13/8 - - - - 7/1 favourite on Salute Him in this handicap hurdle.
SHORTLIST
5pm - Trabzonspor v Sivasspor- 1.47 home - 1.32 over 1.5 goals and in running - I would trade this one given it is early in the turkish season. Early goal and the 1.32 is tradeable.
9pm - Venezuela U17 (W) v Spain U17 (W) - 1.22 away - a likely trade available to early birds at 1.22 ( should reduce to 1.14 or thereabouts as the day progresses)
Spain should win this match .
WARNING from the FIFA site - this is NOT a must win
"Over in Group C, Spain are in good shape to book their place in the last eight, but are still not technically qualified on six points from their first two matches. A draw against Venezuela would be enough to see them through to the knockout rounds while New Zealand will take on Japan, who came to life in their last match with a 6-0 hiding of La Vinotinto."
HORSE RACING
16 class 6 races tell you everything you need to know about this Monday. Dross pretty much!
17 handicaps , class 5 and class 6 , tells us this is a competitive low grade day. Can I salvage anything?
250 MUSSELBURGH - the 2nd fav is out which should make Janet's Pearl's life a little easier. If only it were that easy - this is a class 6 2 year old seller. JAnet's Pearl has 4 2nd places in class 5 and class 6 maidens so is showing consistent which is not that easy for 2 year olds.
There are only 3 under 16/1 in the betting which can indicate a lot of dead wood.1.11 to place.
Neck 2nd last time out and I have looked at the 4 2nds and they all point at tight finishes but a horse that has a tendency to hang.
Surely a drop to this selling company can see this consistent 2 year old in a positive light. Added to this the withdrawal of nearest market rival and it is no wonder that Janet's Pearl is so short.
Yes, we seem to have found a consistent 2 year old ( famous last words)
440 REDCAR - only 4 horses under 25/1 here must make those 4 prime contenders to place. There is always a problem though of course - Tomodachi is the market leader based on a head 2nd on debut, but hold on, that was back in October 2009. I would take a chance on 2nd favourite here in Tariq too , just incase Tomodachi is a little ring rusty.
1.15 for Tomodachi and 1.31 for Tariq too. The latter has a 3lb claimer on board. I would have preferred a professional jockey.
Short head and neck 3rd on last maiden run at Yarmouth on 19th July. Again a slight absence a small concern.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
The grade of racing today makes shocks a little less unexpected. As for football alternatives, well my strong bet Spain U17 Women only need a draw and we have seen time and again that if they don't have to win, they rarely do.
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
No comments:
Post a Comment