back-lay-trade-horses-football: 19/9

Football today for me. Yes, 2-0 last time against Stoke, but I feel that Chelsea should be able to score at least 2 against Blackpool, and in good enough time that the 1.3 is potentially tradeable.
The match odds is the obvious uncomplicated bet, but I take my cues from the Arsenal scoreline against Blackpool.

***** 4pm- CHELSEA V BLACKPOOL -Back over 2.5 goals at 1.3. The option to trade is recommended, especially if it is 2-0 ( or 1-1, 0-2 even early in the match)

Unexpected non runner in the 820 Wolves spoilt the price. The alternatives Real Madrid and Genk both won. I do hope some of you got involved.
Just a lesson on trading. Take my +1.5 asian handicap Wolves Bet
90 minutes - 3-1 - this is a losing bet if you do not trade.
0-1 to Wolves. - +1.5 asian handicap on Betfair is IN RUNNING and price reduces to 1.11 to lay making the 1.57 to back and 1.11 to lay a great trade DESPITE the bet losing in 90 minutes.

See the power of good research? I flagged up Bayern Munich's problem's against FC Koln - 3 draws in last 3 head to heads. Well, add another with a 0-0 yesterday. Good research can stop you losing money as well as help you make money ( Genk - good research indicated a team in great form)

Again, the shortlist of the shortlist obliged yesterday.

FOOTBALL

1230pm - Augsburg v Osnabruck - 1.46 home -IN RUNNING - Augsburg unbeaten in their last 10. 6 friendlies and one cup match though and only 3 division 2 matches 0-2 win, 2-2, 1-0 win. 5,4,4 the number of goals there have been in Osnabruck's 3 league matches this season. Over 1.5 goals perhaps 1.23 given Augsburg's propensity to score and Osnabruck's to concede. BUT only 3 matches played this season. Adequate form lines?
1245pm - Kilmarnock v Celtic - 1.43 away - IN RUNNING - 100% record for Celtic - 1-0's in 2 aways and 3-0 and 4-0 in 2 homes. Clearly they are running into containment when away from home.Rangers were 1.47 yesterday ( albeit at home) and won 3-0. Celtic have been as high as 1.65 this season and still won ( 1-0) so expect a tight early affair and a probable breakthrough from Celtic.
Kilmarnock lost 2-1 away at Rangers, lost 1-0 at home to Motherwell, won 1- 0away at Aberdeen, and won 2-1 at home to St Mirren. Tight affairs and 1 goal games could tie in with the Celtic away 1-0's? +1 to +1.5 asian handicaps point to tight match with an optimum Celtic 2 goal win .
1pm - Zorya v Dinamo Kiev - 1.34 away - Dinamo Kiev are 6-0 in head to heads with 2-0 wins home and away in last 2. Zorya have only won 2 of their last 12. 7 wins, 1 loss and a draw for Dinamo Kiev in the league in their last 9.
I would prefer a goals bet here as Zorya look like they concede but Betfair only offers match odds.
130pm - Roda JC v PSV - 1.72 away - IN RUNNING - Roda have played 2 of the big 3 and play the 3rd today. So far 0-0 home draw v Twente and 3-0 away loss v Ajax. Inconclusive.3 wins , a draw and a loss this season, all matches bar the 0-0 have been over 2.5 goals.
PSV have scored 3,6,3,2,3,so far this season with 4 wins and an away draw 2-2 where they scored first and were winning 2-1 as well.
This 1.72 is tempting given PSV's goalscoring prowess - TO TRADE I might add. Safer could be the over.1 5goals bet.
1-0 in January 2010 away match for PSV in head to heads. Prior to that, 2-0 away cup win, 3-0 home win, and 1-1 away draw with PSV scoring first again. 1.2 over 1.5 goals
130pm - Utrecht v VVV - 1.43 home - IN RUNNING - 2 home wins 3-1 and 3-0 punctuated by 3 away losses 3-1, 4-0, 1-0.
4 losses for VVV and 1 1-0 home win. Lost both away matches 1-0 and 2-0.
1-0 away win and 2-2 draw in 2010 and 2009 head to heads.
2pm - BW Linz v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.34 away - Division 3 RM v Division 1 - highly illiquid market.
2pm - Beroche-Gorgier v Grasshoppers Zurich - 1.07 away - Swiss Cup - 1.04 with Bet365 for a little better on Betfair.
2pm - Cham v Thun - 1.16 away
2pm - Roma v Bologna - 1.51 home - IN RUNNING - 0-0 home draw and 5-1 away loss to Calgliari for Roma. 2-0 loss mid week away to Bayern - potential hangover?
0-0 home draw and 3-1 away loss for Bologna - not a match that sends my pulses racing.
230pm - Austria Vienna (Am) v Rapid Vienna - 1.36 away - 1.25 at Bet365 so slightly better price at Betfair for this Austrian Cup match between Division 3 and Division 1. Rapid lost away to Porto mid week.
230pm - Borac Cacak v Partizan Belgrade - 1.4 away - 2010 and 2009 head to heads have seen Partizan score 3,5,2 to no reply. Borac have only lost 2 of their last 12 matches, drawing 7 of them. 11 of their last 12 matches have seen either 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 scorelines.At home, they are unbeaten in their last 8 matches, BUT have drawn 5. Yet again, scorelines have been 1-0 ( 3 times), 0-0 (3 times) and 1-1 ( twice) .
Is it fair to say that Partizan are the side who have proven they can score more than one against this miserly defence, or will Borac continue in this great defensive form?
230pm - Mendrisio-Stabio v FC Basel - 1.13 away Swiss Cup and 1.03 with Bet365 - the reason for the 1.13 - well it is simply a highly uncompetitive and illiquid betting market. Down to 1.05 now and goals expected. Over 2.5 goals on Betfair has no money.
1.18 halftime/.fulltime at Bet365 - Division 3 v Division 1 and Champions League team Basel!!
3pm - Karpaty v Obolon - 1.47 home - only match odds available at Betfair.
3pm - OFI v Anagennisi Karditsa - 1.29 home - Greek 2nd division - 0-0 and 1-1 in recent head to heads hardly screams for us to bet on OFI.
330pm - Heracles v Twente - 1.71 away - IN RUNNING - third of the triumvirate of dominant Dutch teams -Twente have won the last 6 head to heads, scoring a minimum of 2 on each occasion. DDWWW so far for Twente this season. Away from home, 0-0, 3-1, 2-1 ( DWW).
3 away losses , a draw and a 3-0 win against Willem II hardly compelling for Heracles, although the draw was 1-1 v Feyenoord who are just on the periphary of the top 3.
TEmpting to back Twente in the hope they score first. Look at Ajax away and 1.71 to win and they are 2-0 up as I write.
Can we instinctively just trust PSV, Twente and Ajax regardless of price?
Over 1.5 goals is always an option of course.1.28
4pm - CFR Cluj v Targu Mures - 1.39 home - Cluj have only won 3 of their last 10 so hardly backable material just yet.BUT they have only lost 1 of their last 12 at home.
4pm - Chelsea v Blackpool - 1.11 home - IN RUNNING - look to Arsenal for an optimum scoreline for Chelski today.6-0,6-0,2-0,3-1 so far for Chelski.6-0 and 2-0 home wins.
Blackpool 4-0 win, 6-0 loss, 2-2 draw and 2-0 win . Again goals.
In an ideal world, Chelsea will replicate what Arsenal did to Blackpool.Asian handicaps start at +2 , +2.5 up to +3 goal start for Blackpool.
Worse case scenario 1-0,2-0 and best case 3-0, 4-0 (or 3,4 goal win)
1.3 over 2.5 goals is extremely appealing . Drogba and Fat Frank should be back. Any hangover from trip to Zilina ? It was a changed team mid week.
4pm - IFK Goteborg v Atvidabergs - 1.5 home - IN RUNNING - no really strong form lines to persuade me.
415pm - PAOK v Olympiakos Volos - 1.42 home - IN RUNNING - 3-2 and 0-0 for PAOK and 0-0(home) and 0-1 (away win) for Volos. Only 2 matches means I will leave this alone, suffice to say that Volos sound like newcomers to the top flight.
415pm - Panserraikos v Olympiakos - 1.45 away - IN RUNNING - 3-2 and 2-0 losses for Panserraikos so far this season. 2-1 loss and 2-0 win for Oly. Too early in season for me.
430pm - Leverkusen v Nurnberg - 1.47 home - IN RUNNING - 0-2 win - 3-6 loss - 2-2 away draw signals goals for Leverkusen.1-1, 1-2, 1-1 for Nurnberg. At least they have scored in all their matches so far this season but keep it tight.
5pm - Shakhtar v Tavriya - 1.25 home 7-3-3-2-2- for Shaktar in head to heads. 5 1-0's in last 6 for Shaktar may hint at trouble infront of goal but could end that this afternoon. Shaktar have won last 8 at home .LWDL in last 4 away for Tav. I hope Shaktar end this 1-0 goal famine - these are precarious scorelines.
6pm - Atl Madrid v Barcelona - 1.73 away - IN RUNNING - Atl have won the last 2 at home. Always goals in these matches so look to a goals bet -1.2 over 1.5 goals. Already a must win for Barcelona as Real won last night and Barca lost to Hercules opening match.
6pm - Breidablik v Selfoss - 1.25 home - IN RUNNING 3-1 head to head in July 2010 -Selfoss in poor form. Lost 9, drawn 1 won 2 of last 12.
8pm - Anderlecht v KV Kortrijk - 1.32 home - IN RUNNING - 4 wins 2 draws for Anderlecht -4-1, 4-0 , 0-0 at home. BAck Anderlecht with 0-0 cover bet?
4 wins, loss and a draw for Kortrijk. Away from home, draw, win loss. Loss was 1-0 v Standard Liege so can keep it tight,
Anderlecht have won all head to heads including 2 2009 1-0 home wins.

200 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Royal And Ancient, 7/2 Kahfre, 11/2 Denton Ryal, 10/1 Frameit, 20/1 Hannour, 25/1 Shark Man, 33/1 Mini Max, Othello, 40/1 Royal Torbo, 66/1 Vadition, 100/1 Tigers Charm.

DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL AND ANCIENT made a promising hurdles debut and will be hard to beat if reproducing that effort.

Royal and Ancient has only had the one run over hurdles but is 10/11, all red, and the fancy in this race where there are a number of hurdles debutants. Only 4 under 20/1

220 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ackertac, 7/2 Call Me Bill, 13/2 Himayna, Tiermore, 8/1 Icy Colt, 14/1 Belmore Baron, Grassfinch, 16/1 Amical Risks, Mr Redwood, 20/1 You Know Yourself, 25/1 Newyearsresolution, 40/1 Gutter Lane, 50/1 Lambrini Classic, 66/1 Church Outing, Hurst Park, 100/1 Topping The Bill.

DIOMED VERDICT: Tiermore is the only runner with a hurdles success to his name but may prove vulnerable conceding weight to ACKERTAC who has the best form on offer.

THis will be the problem we face as the jumps season arrives. Ackertac is now 4/5 and strongly fancied but has not run since March 2010.

310 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 State Opera, 5/2 Galloping Queen, 11/4 Tarantella Lady, 14/1 Miss Villefranche, Spey Song, 20/1 Operateur, 25/1 Geminus, 33/1 Nay Secret.

DIOMED VERDICT: A bold bid from State Opera seems likely but he could meet his match in TARANTELLA LADY who ran as though needing the race in a stronger maiden at Doncaster last week. She is more open to improvement than the other main form contender GallopingQueen.