24/9

Polly's Mark is so tempting today but these high class races are quite naturally competitive.

Football again for me and a choice between the Czech Under 17's and Zilina. I will take a chance on Zilina today , although fully acknowledge that exceptional unbeaten sequences often end against the most unlikeliest of opponents. 2 sequences I hope will be broken today
Zilina DWWDWW - we would expect a draw if this sequence continues?
DLDL for opponents away from home - Draw would continue this sequence.


*****ONE A DAY - Zilina v Dunajska Streda - Back Zilina in the match odds at 1.23 currently. Note, Betfair is illiquid but bookies like Ladbrokes and Bet365 are pricing up this match*****




It was 9 last time I looked at Romania under 17 v Liechtenstein. It might be worth your while getting a Bet365 account only because it seems to be the most comprehensive bookies for the football.

The jumps season has started with novice this and beginners that, and worth leaving alone yesterday.

230pm - Czech Rep U17 v Armenia U17 - 1.17 home- last met 2007 - 5-1 win for Czechs. The odds, as you have seen this week, have been accurate for the under 17 matches.
Armenia have only won 2 of their last 12 matches. They have lost 6 and drawn 2 of their last 8 matches. In 2009 and 2010, Armenia have conceded 3,3,1,4,6
They have lost their last 6 away matches.
Armenia have only had 2 matches in 2010. Czechs have played 11 matches this year, with the following results WDLDDLWWLDD - lost 3, and those losses were 3-2, 3-1 and 1-0 ( 3-1 v England away) - tight enough matches.
Czechs have only lost 2 away from home. LDWWLDWDWWDW - solid enough home form.
Losses against Serbia 2-3 and Georgia 1-0.
Slight concern with recent results at home 2-3 , 0-0, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1
Armenia, though, have a terrible record.
3pm - Spartak Moscow v Amkar - 1.32 home - 2009 and 2010 head to heads equal 3 wins for Spartak.
WWWLWLDWL so far for Spartak. Good sequence at present includes a win over Olympic Marseille.
WWLWL for Spartak at home this season.
WLWLWLLLLW for Amkar in total this season.
Caution - 10 of Amkar's last 11 matches have been close 1 goal-in-it matches. 3-0 to Rubin Kazan the only anomoly there.
7 of last 10 matches have been 1-0 matches.
4pm - Videoton v Haladas - 1.34 home - Hungarian Division 1 - Videoton used to be Fehervar. Last 2 head to heads have been 4-2 and 4-3 -one win to each team. Goals therefore include both teams.
4 of Videoton's last 5 matches have seen one team scoring 3 goals. ( Videoton scored 3 in 3 of those 4 matches)
DDLLLD for Haladas in last 6 league matches.
430pm - Zilina v Dunajska Streda - 1.23 home - Slovakian Division 1 - WWWDW in 2009 and 2010 head to heads for Zilina. Zilina have only lost 1 and drawn 3 of the last 12. That was was against Chelsea ! Zilina have scored 5 in their last 2 matches. Recent results in the league - WWWDWDWDWWW
At home in the league WWDWWDWWWDW. Again only loss at home v Chelsea in Champions League.
WDLWDLLLLLL for Streda in last 11 league matches. Last 7 matches have been one-goal-in-it matches ( including 2 1-1 draws) Ability to keep it tight?
LDLDLL in league so far away from home for Streda.
Recent collateral form?

MFK Dubnica

2-5

MSK Zilina

MFK Dubnica

2-1

Dunajska Streda

August and September 2010 results so recent and relevant.
530pm - SCR Altach v FC Gratkorn - 1.43 home - preference for a goals bet here - over 1.5 goals but we only have 2.5 goals and match odds bets at Betfair.
6pm - Bursaspor v Bucaspor - 1.47 home - 4 out of 4 so far for Bursaspor - 1-0, 0-2, 0-2, 2-1
LDWDL for Bucaspor who I think are newcomers to the league.
2 draws in their 2 away matches so far this season.
Against teams of the calibre of Besiktas and Galatasary, Bucaspor , at home, only lost 1-0.
6pm - Ujpest v Szolnoki MAV - 1.33 home - LLLDLL for MAV , hence the short price for Ujpest despite less than eyecatching form. 3-1 and 4-2 losses so far away for MAV who are newly promoted. Looks like another goal laden match today and another likely away loss for a side struggling with the promotion to better company.IN RUNNING so of interest. I would not get involved in this HUngarian league match if it was not in running.
745pm - Derry v Mervue Utd - 1.16 home - Mervue have lost their last 12 matches. ( and probably more but my stats only go as far as 12)
DDLWLL for Derry recently is hardly compelling. Mervue must be dire to get this 1.16 quote for a Derry side in less than good form.
8pm - Shamrock Rovers v Galway Utd - 1.37 home - 2-0 at home already against Galway, Shamrock have not lost at home this season. Beat Galway United 6-0 in Cup on 17th September. Usually, teams play in such a manner that they want to avoid another drubbing, so Galway may keep this encounter tight?
815pm - Braga v Naval - 1.48 home - 2 wins at home so far ( 2 draws and a loss away) for Braga.
Naval have lost 3, drawn 1 and won 1. Away they have won 1 and lost one.
LAst 2 home head to heads have been draws, but latest head to head was 4-0 away win for Braga.
8 of the last 10 Naval games have seen 1 goal or less. Caution , then , for Braga backers especially when tied in with the 0-0 and 1-1 last 2 Braga home head to heads.

345 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Polly´s Mark, 3/1 Ferdoos, 8/1 Sparkling Smile, 10/1 Brushing, Shimmering Surf, 12/1 Dyna Waltz, 14/1 Warling, 16/1 Lady Artemisia, 20/1 Red Fantasy, 25/1 Snoqualmie Girl, 50/1 Some Sunny Day, 100/1 Funday,

DIOMED VERDICT: The reliable Polly's Mark sets the standard but may have caught a tartar in FERDOOS who has won both her starts by a long way and looks well worth a crack at this level.

Interesting race as Polly's Mark is the one strong in the market. 2/1 and all red, backed all morning, Richard Hughes in the saddle. Tackling group company generally and we could say this is a drop in class. Ferdoos has won 2 handicaps and is stepping up in class. Sparkling Smile has won his last 5 ( class 4 handicap company) and should not win today.

405 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Frosted Grape, 5/1 Moulin De La Croix, 6/1 Tell Me The Story, 8/1 Storm Of Applause, 10/1 Magnetic Pole, Rockiteer, 12/1 Qianshan Leader, Sunday City, 14/1 Folie A Deux, 16/1 Sir Ian, 20/1 Keepitsecret.

DIOMED VERDICT: FROSTED GRAPE (nap) can continue on her merry way with another springheeled success. Winner only a few days ago, Frosted Grape has a good chance of finishing in the first 2 again. 745 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tahaamah, 3/1 Materialism, 5/1 Come On The Irons, 6/1 In Babylon, 8/1 Spartan King, 12/1 Fire Fighter, 33/1 Calico Bay, 40/1 Pleasant Humor, 50/1 Local Diktator, 66/1 Arctic Reach, DIOMED VERDICT: Newcomer TAHAAMAH looks the part on paper and can overcome his lack of experience. Expose's market move was founded yesterday. Tahaamah though is a debutant but striking in the market. 4/7 , and all red even this early for TedDurcan and Godolphin. 845 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Eastern Hills, 11/2 Philosophers Guest, 6/1 Belle Park, 8/1 Fly By Nelly, Join Up, Tres Froide, 14/1 Cross The Boss, Lady Slippers, 16/1 Parisian Dream, 33/1 Bogside Dancer, Chichi, Why Nee Amy, DIOMED VERDICT: EASTERN HILLS (nap) is thrown in on his old form and the signs are that his new yard has revitalised him. Price gapper in a class 6 0-55 handicap - on the cusp of a winning run or an unreliable sort given the rating? SHORTLIST 230pm - Czech Rep U17 v Armenia U17 - 1.17 home - odds have been generally spot on in these under 17 matches. A pity the market is illiquid as the 1.17 has reduced to 1.13 430pm - Zilina v Dunajska Streda - 1.23 home - dominant in Slovak league and solid form - only defeat in 12 against Chelsea. Collateral form looks good. Not in running. 6pm - Ujpest v Szolnoki MAV - 1.33 home - in running so very interesting match given the away side are newly promoted and have conceded 7 in their 2 away matches so far. 345 ASCOT - Pollys Mark is 1.51 to place - I thought it would be lower given that the horse is the one backed in the betting market. Ferdoos and Pollys Mark are pretty much joint favourites. Slight preference for Ferdoos in the place market at 1.46 but yet to show herself at this higher level. 405 WORCESTER - Frosted Grape has been ultra consistent and looks a smart jumper. Have we missed the chance to back her last time out, or will she show the continued placed form again? 1.46 to place 745 WOLVES - need to return to this market Tahaamah is solid in the market but is a debutant. Connections must be respected SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST. 230pm - Czech Rep U17 v Armenia U17 - 1.16 home price will fluctuate on Betfair but is 1.14 with Bet365 . I have grown to trust the prices in these under 17 matches this week which have been an accurate reflection of the likely final result. 430pm - Zilina v Dunajska Streda - 1.23 home - yes the draw is always a concern but Zilina look to be a dominant force in Slovakian Football. Unbeaten sequences will always end , but when? 345 ASCOT - it is tempting to follow the market confidence with Pollys Mark but I always argue that no horse in these grade races can ever be discounted, and I remind you of Rewilding, my choice in the St Leger who emptied out and did not place. Further, we would have to be extremely confident that Pollys Mark and Ferdoos will finish in the first 3 , as generally one will disappoint. 1.51 is a very tempting price for Pollys Mark but it does encapsulate all I have just said above. 745 WOLVES - simples! - Follow the market or take the disciplined route and ignore all all weather and racing debutant 2 year olds.

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