Tuesday, 31 August 2010

31/8

I think all of the shortlist of the shortlist is strong today so will go with time order. My safest bet I think would be the 2am women's US Open tennis match.

Given the huge gulf between the 2 Czech teams playing today, and the fact the match is in running, I will opt for this ( fully aware that I am essentially betting blind and relying on Sigma's status in the top flight in Czech football against a team in Group C of the 4th Level.

*****ONE A DAY - 4pm - Usti nad Orlici v Sigma Olomouc -Back Sigma Olomouc in the match odds market at 1.11. The match is in running ( speculators/traders might like to try an over 3.5 goals bet but be wary these markets are likely to be illiquid )






Rather obviously Al Muthanaa placed with ease. Personally I doubled up with Clijsters 2-0 set betting and she obliged at around 6pm at a nice 1.15 making a 1.22 day for me yesterday. Remember with the big guns in major tournaments, backing them to win to love in sets will pay off. It did so with Venus Williams, Roger Federer, A-Rod, and Soderling ( yes he was 2-0 up and you could have traded out then)

Johnstone Paints Trophy - that time when the football world's heart beats fast in anticipation - is upon us today and is immediately avoided as a betting medium.

4pm - Usti nad Orlici v Sigma Olomouc - 1.11 - Czech Cup match and Usti were beaten 4-0 by Sparta Prague this time last year so same expected today.
Sigma are unbeaten in their last 5 August matches, drawing 2 and winning 3 +2.5 asian handicap start is extremely positive vote for away side.
This match is in running and , although we are betting blind ( i.e. motivation for Sigma as regards the Cup? Weakened side? Unknown opponents ? State of the pitch? Weather? ) expectation is for Czech top division side to easily prevail. Enhance bet with goals bet ( optimistic over 3.5 goals given the 1.11 quote)


TENNIS - US OPEN
515pm - Hajek v Fish - Fish is 1.04 to back and while I don't bracket him with the names mentioned above, why is he so short, and is he reliable at those odds to produce at least a 2-0 so we can trade. 1.4 is relatively big for a 1.04 shot to win 3-0 sets , compared with, say, Roddick yesterday at 1.27. 82nd v 21st in the world and no head to heads. Hajek could easily win a set in a tie breaker here as there is not an eye-popping difference in ranking. Fish is, importantly, American and that may be the reasoning for what I see as too short a price about him.
6pm - Troicki v Djokovic - 1.12 Djoko. One of the dependables returns in Novak. 47th v 3rd in the world. Importantly, Troicki has twice taken a set off Djoko without winning the match. This can be, logically, replicated again. 1.89 for 3-0 tells the full story. 4th favourite for this tournament is Novak and that 1.14 is quite high for one of the big boys in an early round ( compare with 1.02 and 1.03 for Roddick and Clijsters)
Here I would adopt a match odds only bet and suspect that Troicki might be Tricky and at least win one set. If he wins the first set, then pile into Novak at enhanced odds.
830pm - Nalbandian v De Voest - 1.04 Nalbandian - 33rd against 231st in the rankings is the kind of gap you want to see, as compared against 21st v 82nd!!
Head to heads - one win for Nalbandian 6-0, 6-4 on hard in 2006 - too long ago to be of any real significance. 1.44 for 3-0 in sets is certainly tradeable if Nalby wins first set but again is high when compared to Roddick's 1.27 ( he dropped 7 games only in 3 sets)
915pm - Kucova v Zvonareva - 1.04 Zvonareva - again with the ladies it is the first to 2 sets which makes life a lot easier for us. 1.23 ( illiiquid betting market) for 2-0 set betting is of some appeal but I need to see head to heads.
6-0, 6-2 in French Open in 2008 for Vera. 119th v 8th in the world. Has a good chance of 2-0 in sets for Zvonareva.
MIDNIGHT - Nadal v Gabashvili - 1.02 for Nadal - around 1.3 for 3-0 in sets to Nadal. 1 v 93 in the rankings and the difference is immeasurable.
2 head to heads in 2009 read 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 and 6-2, 6-2 so apart from that slight blip at 6-4, Rafa should replicate Roddick's straight sets victory yesterday with a similar scoreline ( barring injury - old nobbly knees Nadal as he's called on the tour)
2am - Wozniacki v Gullickson - 2nd in the world v ? ( woman's tour site says 9999 in the world but that is not right) 1.16 for 2-0 to Wozniaki looks reasonable enough ( but is illiquid at present - with such a big tournament you can always get prices with bookies)

350 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Swiss Art, 5/1 La Soie, 6/1 Django Reinhardt, Natures Way, 14/1 Miss Molly Moses, 16/1 Lilly Royal, 20/1 Don Jose, Hurst Park, 25/1 Top Tide, 33/1 Mr Demister.

DIOMED VERDICT: It wasn't much of a race that SWISS ART won here last time but connections have unearthed another beauty.

Looks like a typical Monday card on a Tuesday!! Soft ground at 2 venues makes life interesting. Swiss Art is now 1/2 in the live betting market which is always a positive sign. Only 4 under 20/1 in the betting for this novice's hurdle.
7lb claimer on this favourite but has a record of 321 on the horse in its last 3 runs, most recently a win on soft . Looks an obvious contender to place with that caveat that must always be repeated - the horse must complete of course.

410 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Midnight Caller, 7/1 Miss Chicane, 10/1 Miss Villefranche, Slight Advantage, 12/1 Etarre, Magic Of The Sea, 14/1 Azlaa, 66/1 Ihavenotime.

DIOMED VERDICT: There was plenty to like about MIDNIGHT CALLER's debut effort and although the softer ground is an unknown, she looks the one to beat.

Marybell was similarly profiled yesterday ( i.e. debutant on soft ground) and won very well when priced to do so. Midnight caller is now 1/3 " the one to beat despite the ground being an unknown" . This is a classic 8 runner ( well 7 now) and 3 place race so we should have some leeway with 3 places for a favourite who may underperform on the ground.
Only lost on debut by jinking at the sight of the paddock exit on sole run so, IF handling the ground ( and the betting market foresees no problems) , should place with ease in this maiden.

430 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Abzolutely, 5/2 Cuddly, 6/1 Silver Angel, 7/1 Gunalt Joy, 9/1 Breezolini, 16/1 Kinlochrannoch, Maunby Rumba, 25/1 Snow Legend, 100/1 Immacolata.

DIOMED VERDICT: Cuddly looks a speedy 2yo on paper and there should be more to come from Breezolini and Gunalt Joy, but this could be the right opening for ABZOLUTELY who has been running well in similar races.

8 runners now and a very consistent market leader whose recent "0" came in a class 1 ( this is class 6) With 8 runners and 3 places and one clear outsider at 50/1 this should leave 7 runners for 3 places ( only 4 to beat to place)
Another maiden race and these are not the best betting mediums but this Abzolutely is eyecatchingly consistent. 5 furlongs means tardiness will be penalised but the experience could be the clincher here for Abzolutely. Why the sole run in listed company 2 runs ago? Does the trainer think this filly has a future?

610 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 William Van Gogh, 7/4 Old Money, 8/1 Hoodie, 25/1 Mr Shammie, 33/1 Lady Brickhouse, 50/1 Avec Moi.

DIOMED VERDICT: OLD MONEY, bred to appreciate this surface, can see off William Van Gogh.

3 horse race for 2 places.

SHORTLIST
4pm - Usti nad Orlici v Sigma Olomouc - 1.11 - this isn the Czech Cup but does appeal from an in running/trading perspective. Goals perhaps an option here and over 1.5 goals is similarly priced to the match odds but covers both sides.
6pm - Troicki v Djokovic - 1.14 Djoko - a relatively big price for a World Number 3 and 4th fav for the US Open. I would almost say "suspiciously" high. I would only entertain a match odds bet rather than 3-0 sets bet given that Troicki has historically taken 2 sets of Djokovic. It is a very tempting price though for World Number 3 v 47th in the world ( I suppose any one in the top 50 must have some threat?)
915pm - Kucova v Zvonareva - 1.04 Zvonareva 119th v 8th in the world and c. 1.23 for 2-0 sets to Vera Zvonareva is very tempting.
MIDNIGHT - Nadal v Gabashvili - 1.02 for Nadal - around 1.3 for 3-0 in sets to Nadal.2nd favourite for the US Open , 1st in the world v 93rd. This is a tempting price.
2am - Wozniacki v Gullickson - 2nd in the world and 1.16 ( illiquid market) and this is near top of the list I think as far as tennis set betting is concerned.

410 LEICESTER - Mignight caller is very obvious and that is reflected by the 1.07 quote. But we have one big question mark for a maiden who has only had one run and that is whether he will handle soft ground. Quite a question mark when backing at 1.07.

430 RIPON - I am tempted to take a chance on this Abzolutely today given
1) the horse is consistently placing in similar company and over today's trip.
2) the horse was run in listed company 2 races ago - interesting.
3) Good ground at Ripon is far more preferable to soft ground elsewhere.

Illiquid betting market but around 1.15 to place. There are some potential improvers and a 2nd favourite who is a debutant and , as ever, could be anything. Add to this the fact these are 2 year olds over the minimum trip and it makes this race one where positives and negatives balance.

610 SOUTHWELL - simple lucky dip race between 3 likely contenders for 2 places. Hoodie has been supported but the significant early money is for Old Money, all red at time of writing and 15/8 in places. Needs reviewing nearer the off as the market could help decide which of the 3 to back to place. Great probability race though with Hoodie the obvious fly in the ointment.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
4pm - Usti nad Orlici v Sigma Olomouc - 1.11 - despite the unknowns mentioned earlier, it is the fact that this is an in running match which appeals. As does the asian handicap which begins at +2.5 goals ( expectation for 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 result here) 4 draws and a win in their last 5 away matches for Sigma were against top flight opponents Homke team are in Group C of 4th level in Czech football
6pm - Troicki v Djokovic - 1.14 Djoko - this is likely to be a battle for the World Number 3 and so I would look to the match odds market only here but expect the 4th fav for the US Open to prevail eventually. Could be one of those games where the 1.14 for Djokovic increases in running.
2am - Wozniacki v Gullickson - 2nd in the world - looks by far the most solid 2-0 set betting match handed to us today. A long wait though ( 2am) and a question as to when we actually place our bets as the market is illiquid at present.
430 RIPON - it is the consistency of Abzolutely that appeals here, but then it is the fact this is a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden that puts me off. Worse case scenario, there are likely improvers here and 2 debutants ( one is 2nd fav and we could assume fills one of the 3 places on offer) Only one real outsider too at 50/1 ( next best is 14/1 and that is not really a traditional "real" outsider price.










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Monday, 30 August 2010

30/8

Conference football, Tennis, and a shorty in a maiden are the choices today. Which of the 3 is the most rock solid? Well I would have to say that betting in the Conference is perhaps not the wisest option given the lowly nature of the league.
This leaves Kim Clijsters, favourite for the US Open and winner last year at 1.02 against Arn in this first round. First to 2 sets and this looks well within Clijsters' grasp for this early round. 1.12 to around 1.14 for 2-0 sets to Kim Clijsters looks a good bet.
Al Muthanaa represents Hills and the colours of Hamdan Al Maktoum and these colours I have noticed being very prominent in maidens recently.

*****ONE A DAY 300 RIPON - BACK AL MUTHANAA TO PLACE ONLY AT AROUND 1.07*****

What I am personally going to do today is take advantage of Kim Clijsters Match BUT with only trading in mind .i.e. if she breaks early and wins the first set, the 1.12 - 1.14 2-0 set betting odds should reduce considerably ( liquidity in the market willing)
Barca look to be reliable betting propositions this season, while Real Madrid continue to draw games they should win, although Mallorca at home look to be as formidable as last season under Michael Laudrup.

FOOTBALL
3pm - Alfreton Town v Stafford Rangers - 1.35 home - head to heads draw in 2010 and wins for Alfreton in 3 2009 head to heads. Alfreton are scoring bucket loads in this Conference league, 4,2,5,5,1,2 in last 5 matches. Stafford seem to keep things tight if not winning. Last 5 matches have seen 2 1-0's, a 1-1, a 2-2 and a 2-0 win. Only match odds at Betfair - I would have liked a goals bet.
3pm - Luton v Hayes & Yeading - 1.31 home - head to heads 2010 is an 8-0 win for Luton and previous to that a 3-2 away win for Luton. Luton have lost their last match, and drawn the previous one to that. Yeading have lost their last 2, conceding 7 in total. Again I would like a neutral goals bet. This game is amazingly in running and over 1.5 goals is 1.17 which sees both teams playing for us.
4pm - Vidima Rakovski v Levski Sofia - 1.26 away - head to heads back to 2008 signals home side is promoted. Head to heads from 2008 point at comprehensive wins for Levski by an average of 3 goals. 1.31 over 1.5 goals is very interesting and looks suspiciously big for an asian handicap market starting at +1.5 goals. Home side have drawn last 2 home matches followed by a 1-0 loss so do put up some resistance, and as has been the pattern this season, promoted sides have surprised when meeting their more illustrious opponents for the first time ( Caen, Cesena to name but 2) IN RUNNING - consideration in backing Levski to trade if they lead at any time.
5pm - APOEL v Ermis - 1.26 home - APOEL have won their last 5 head to heads including 3 home wins, by 5-0, 1-0, and 3-0 in 2010 and 2009. This is the natural reason behind the price in this Cypriot league match. APOEL have been plying their trade in Europa League early rounds with some success and would seem to have that competitive edge. Yet again another season opener today. Just the match odds available.
745pm - Bologna v Inter - 1.65 away - if this was Mourinho's Inter then maybe I could entertain backing to lay off if they lead at any stage, but as this is the Fat Spanish Waiter's Inter, I think I had better watch and wait. There is no doubting he has some talent in that squad such as Snjeider and Et'oo - it remains to be seen now tactics will impact Inter. Inter beat Bolgona home and away 3-1 and 3-0 so have clear advantage. Bologna could not beat the top 4 last season.
9pm - Atl Madrid v Gijon - 1.53 home - Madrid have lost one and drawn in 2010 head to heads - the loss coming in a friendly. 11 home wins, 5 losses and 3 draws last season. It was Madrid's away form that held them back. Gijon away last season only won 2, drew 6, and lost 11. Clear edge for Athletico - again a season opener.
TENNIS - US OPEN
4pm - Davydenko v Russell - 1.12 Davydenko. He has had a solid year and is expected to progress past this first round .
515pm - Soderling v Haider Maurer - 1.02 Soderling - as ever in these first rounds, can we simply default to set betting? Around 1.29 for 3-0 - set betting is a lot less straightforward than the first to 2 format. Very tradeable if Soderling wins the first set ( or even breaks first)
6pm - Arn v Clijsters - again Kim is unbackable but this is only first to 2 sets - a very illiquid 1.18 ( perhaps go to bookmakers rather than betfair, BUT trade still via betfair if she wins the first set)
715pm - Robert v Roddick - around 1.3 for 3-0 sets
115am - Dabul v Federer - 1.22 for 3-0 sets but remember Federer has uncharacteristically made life difficult in some early rounds this season.

From the above, logic dictates that the women's set betting is easier - the first to 2.

200 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Noonenose, 4/1 Winged Valkyrie, 5/1 Aciano, 7/1 Sylas Ings, 14/1 Barathea Dancer, John Biscuit, Torun City, 16/1 City Legend, 20/1 Valley Tiger, 25/1 Investment World, 33/1 Rowan Ridge, 50/1 Oetzi.

DIOMED VERDICT: Well-bred Winged Valkyrie is likely to leave her Kempton debut effort behind but may meet her match in NOONENOSE who is the pick on form and has an experience advantage over most of his rivals.

Fav is one of those with 2 2nds in a maiden, should remain consistent if we can trust 2 year olds of course.
Callan a new jockey today and one of only 4 under 12/1 - 1.31 to place.

235 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Crevelea Lass, 3/1 Golan Guy, 7/2 Blue Turk, 6/1 Academic Accolade, 8/1 Holyrood, 10/1 Pandim, 14/1 All On Board, 20/1 Kaiser So Say, 33/1 Floor It.

Golan Guy has leapfrogged into favouratism for Ruby and Tony Martin.
300 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Al Muthanaa, 5/1 No Thank You, 12/1 Apache Warrior, Three Bay Leaves, 20/1 Fear Factor, 28/1 Norville, Roman Sioux, 33/1 Green Army, Saffron Hick, Seven Sons.

DIOMED VERDICT: AL MUTHANAA stands out.

Al Muthanaa is a huge price gapper, 1/3 now and " stands out" for the Hills. Only 5 under 25/1 and only 6 under 50/1. Up in trip to 1 mile having run n2nd in 6f and 7f. These colours have been very impressive in recent maidens.

Fear Factor is a potential each way steal market mover into 12/1

320 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Marywell, 4/1 Surface Tension, 7/1 Pickwick, 12/1 Aneel, 14/1 Ahaazeeg, 33/1 Mexican Jay, Najca De Thaix, Raghdaan, 50/1 Millie Mops.

DIOMED VERDICT: MARYWELL has been unfortunate to bump into useful sorts since her promising debut here, pulling clear of the remainder both times, and sets a clear standard.

Another maiden who has the 2 2nds and is expected to get that win soon , but it is soft ground today.

455 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Deorai, 13/8 Manacor, 5/1 Sixty Eight Guns, 16/1 Six Silver Lane.

Bolger/Manning and Weld/Smullen on the obvious 2 for 2 places. 68 guns is the fly in the ointment. Manacor I actually fancied at Killarney but he was terribly disappointing so perhaps default to Deorai as a likely placer?

520 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Broadway Dancer, 7/2 Frontline Phantom, 5/1 Egmarey, 6/1 Magic Millie, 13/2 Sharakti, 15/2 Dazakhee, 10/1 Layla´s Boy, 40/1 Petrocelli.

DIOMED VERDICT: This can go to BROADWAY DANCER.

Of interest given this is 8 runners and 3 places. 2 significant market movers, all red, in Frontline Phanton and Dazakhee.

730 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Clearwater Bay, 11/4 Stephen´s Green, 4/1 Perfect Gemstone, 6/1 Clear Alternative, 10/1 Regresa A Mi, 20/1 Fisherpond, Hows The Chap, 25/1 Flywing, 33/1 Drummanmoremaster, Eva´s Star, 50/1 Ember Jack, 66/1 Jacks Choice.

Significant non runner in 2nd favourite sees Clearwater Bay for Murtagh/O'Brien a strong market leader and obvious place contender.

"improvement a formality you would hope." - generally the consensus with Ballydoyle juveniles. One run -a 2nd place- was on the all weather and we must remember these are 2 year olds so turf might either show the horse up in a good light or regress the horse. that is the risk we take with little run 2 year olds.

SHORTLIST
3pm - Luton v Hayes & Yeading - 1.31 home - this is IN RUNNING and over 1.5 goals is around 1.16 which involves both sides. Tradeable with an early goal and a hope Luton can replicate a small part of their 8-0 win last time. I would insist on monitoring as this is a conference match and I am not au fait with the comings and goings day in and day out in this lowly league.
4pm - Vidima Rakovski v Levski Sofia - 1.26 away - promoted v big boys - another shock? I would take advantage of the in running aspect here and back Levski to lay off if they lead at some stage.
9pm - Atl Madrid v Gijon - 1.53 home - have an inform strike force the home team so a chance perhaps to back at 1.53 in the hope they lead at some stage to again trade out. Caution - opening match of season ( look what happened to the other Madrid yesterday)
515pm - Soderling v Haider Maurer - 1.02 Soderling - 5th in the world is Soderling and having a good season. Soderling is 5th favourite in the betting to win. He should win all 3 sets it is hoped. Around 1.27 for 3-0 to Soderling ( as mentioned earlier there is always a risk with first to 3 setters)
6pm - Arn v Clijsters - around 1.12 to 1.14 for 2-0 set betting for Kim Clijsters - Clijsters is the favourite for the US open and 1.02 to win this match. Should be a formality one would hope.
300 RIPON - Al Muthanaa looks rock solid here and there are no ground concerns luckily at Ripon. 1.31 to win and 1.07 to place. Up in trip from 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs to a mile today - that is the only niggle I would have, but if not winning, should place at least for a stable and owners who have had a good strike rate in maidens of late.
320 WARWICK - Marywell looks of great interest were it not for this soft ground factor which does not sit well with maiden juveniles.
730 GALWAY - only mentioned because the 2nd favourite is a non runner which opens things up for Clearwater Bay for O'Brien/Murtagh who must be respected. Need to view this market nearer race time.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Luton v Hayes & Yeading - 1.31 home -over 1.5 goals but would have to insist upon trading. A big concern is that this is a conference match and these lowly leagues are not the best betting propositions.
6pm - Arn v Clijsters - around 1.12 to 1.14 for 2-0 set betting for Kim Clijsters - the ladies only play in first to 2 sets which is far more preferable to first to 3 sets in the men's game. 1.02 in the match odds market and the current US Open Champion, Kim Clijsters surely can win this without dropping a set in the first round.
300 RIPON - Al Muthanaa - an obvious bet today in the absence of anything remotely as solid as Barcelona FC. 1.07 is reasonable I suppose.




Sunday, 29 August 2010

29/8

Barcelona return today and while it is always risky to back a team away from home on the opening day of the season, I expect a comfortable win and this is my one a day selection

*****ONE A DAY - 6pm - Racing Santander v Barcelona - Back Barcelona in the match odds at 1.26 *****



Nice and easy for Chelsea - why complicate matters? Again, I missed out on doing a double with Man Utd!
FOOTBALL
1130am - De Graafschap v Ajax - 1.29 away - 9n goals scored already for Ajax - sole away game has been a draw where Ajax were 2-0 up. De Graaf won their sole home match 2-0 but lost 6-0 away to PSV. Although this was away, this is the kind of scoreline that Ajax should be capable of. Emphatic bias to Ajax in head to heads with goals a plenty. De Graaf promoted last season and goals galore scored by them. Perhaps safer is an over 1.5 goals bet although Ajax likely to be too much of a step up.
1200pm - Motherwell v Celtic - 1.63 away - last time Celtic were over 1.5 and away they won 1-0 and this is probably going to be replicated today. Head to heads 3 Celtic wins and a 0-0 draw. Likely to be as tight as the Inverness game as the odds are the same.
130pm - ADO Den Haag v PSV - 1.38 away - 12 goals scored by PSV already in 3 games. 2 losses for ADO Den Haag 3-1, 3-1 and a win 3-2 indicate goals again .1.19 over 1.5 goals. Again comprehensive wins for PSV in head to heads. ADO's last 3 games over 3.5 goals.
130pm - Twente v Utrecht - 1.53 home - 0-0, 0-0 and 3-0 away win v Arnhem , Twente are off and running. They need to win if they want to retain the title, especially at home. 2 0-0's in last 3 head to heads (2010 and 2009) and 3-2 home win inbetween. Twente MUST win at home.3-1 loss away, 3-1 and 3-0 home wins. The Feyenoord score should be within Twente's grasp if they play to their potential. Cover of 0-0 obvious bet.
230pm - Leverkusen v Mgladbach - 1.44 home - 1-0 away win against Dortmund a reasonable result for Leverkusen . 1-1 for Mgladbach. Bayer have won 3 home head to heads and included goals! Lost only one at home all last season augurs well for this. Mgladbach lost against all of top 6 ( Leverkusen 4th) last season and priced again to lose today. Goals an option. Over 1.5 goals 1.21 .
230pm - The New Saints v Bala Town - 1.28 home - head to heads too close - 1-0 win and 0-0 in 2010 and 2009 to entertain a bet.
300pm - Liverpool v West Brom - 1.32 home - drawn 1 and lost 1 albeit against top 5 sides. Chance to win at home today. I am not overtly confident with this Liverpool side however. 1-0 home win v Sunderland was great for West brom. +1.5 asian handicaps
330pm - AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior - 1.32 home - 2 1-1 draws and a 3-1 loss to PSV - AZ still are not what they used to be. Excelsior lost one and won 2 home 3-2 and 4-2 - looks like goals bet here incase AZ cannot muster a win. Excelsior concede and score. AZ lost 2 away head to heads but won easily 3 most recent home head to heads.
330pm - CSKA Moscow v Alania Vladikavkaz - 1.23 home
500pm - Fredrikstad v Follo - 1.32
500pm - Shakhtar v Illychivets - 1.09 home - only match odds available on Betfair but goals expected. Beware though as Shaktar have only won their last 2 matches 1-0. 3 draws on the trot for Illichivets add to the caution.
600pm - Fenerbahce v Manisaspor - 1.32 home - 4-0 home and 3-2 away loss - overs the call? Over 1.5 goals safe bet.Fener won last 3 home head to heads. Lost only 2 at home last year. 1.26 over 1.5 goals
600pm - Kryvbas v Dinamo Kiev - 1.38 away - Mixed results in head to heads away - 2 wins and a loss for Kiev. Kryvbas have conceded 7 in their last 2 matches in the league. Goals bet? Over 1.5 goals - only match odds on Betfair.
600pm - Santander v Barcelona - 1.28 away - 4-0 and 4-1 Barca wins last season augurs well for the opener , but we saw with Roma, Marseille and Pana, that opening matches can provide shocks. But this Barca team is even better than last year's with David Villa's arrival. Expect sumptuous football. As an away game, perhaps you can trade if Barca scored first ( and they scored first in 89.47% of all matches last year)
700pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Cibalia - 1.28 home - head to heads loss for Dinamo and draw shows lack of consistency for me to entertain home match odds.
700pm - Litex Lovech v Akademik Sofia - 1.13 home - I think away side is promoted side, hence the heavy bias to home side. Sofia have kept things tight in defeat. Litex won 2 home this season and 1.13 tells us goals are expected. Only match odds alas on Betfair.
730pm - Genk v Lierse - 1.3 home -scored 13 in last 3 matches have Genk. In solid form and could be dark horses if progressing in Europa League. Lierse lost all matches so far. 2 away losses have been 1-0. Another loss expected against free scoring , confident Genk.
745pm - AC Milan v Lecce - 1.32 home - Lecce are newcomers to Seria A and we saw with Roma v Cesena yesterday, these are tricky matches for strong favs. AC Milan were not betting propositions last year due to huge inconsistencies. 5 draws at home when they should have won easily. April 2009 last time these 2 met and AC won 2-0. Logic says AC win. I would back the 0-0 insurance bet here given the Roma game against promoted side yesterday.
800pm - Mallorca v Real Madrid - 1.42 away - Mourinho on board so expect solidity in defence. Mallorca only lost 3 at home last year, importantly those 3 were against Barca, Real and Sevilla. The Real score was 4-1. 12 away games for Real last year finished over 2.5 goals.
815pm - Rio Ave v Porto - 1.44 away - in good health - 2 from 2 and need another win to consolidate 100% record. 5 out of 5 in 2010 and 2009 head to heads and away matches head to heads have seen Porto win.


245 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Glor Na Mara, 5/2 Big Issue, 8/1 Moonlit Garden, 9/1 Fred Archer, 10/1 Emperor Hadrian, 12/1 Dingle View, 20/1 Oor Jock, 25/1 Queen Of Spain, 33/1 Sydney Harbour

Most races are under 8 runners and 2 places prior to this race. Glor Na Mara 422 form and only 3 under 16/1 1.17 to place

400 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dream Champion, 9/2 Doransfirth, 9/1 Raheenwood, 12/1 Another Ambition, Euripides, Mats Teacher, Silent Jo, 14/1 Alickadoo, The Lady Granuaile, 16/1 Cnoc Na Heornan, Erra Go On, First Row, Rosangla, Waluigi, 20/1 Dickie Henderhoop, Fortune Seeker, Moving On, 25/1 Akadyr, Golden Flight, 50/1 Auction Girl.

Big field and this Dream Champion represents Ruby/ Tony Martin whoi have had a solid recent strike rate since Ruby's return. Take the hint - handicap hurdle though so need to complete of course.

415 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Memory, 11/4 Laughing Lashes, 8/1 Together, 10/1 Misty For Me, 12/1 Kissable, 16/1 Wild Wind, 25/1 Gatamalata, Why, 33/1 Palinode, 50/1 Negotiate, 100/1 Light Footsteps, Mrs Happy.

Hughes/Hannon inn Ireland on a horse who has won his last 3 - yes please!!

535 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Colonel Mortimer, 9/4 Not For Converting, 11/4 Ross Bay, 20/1 What Next, 25/1 Coole Presenting, 50/1 Beal Geal.

Ross Bay a non runner makes the betting forecast interesting. Colonel and Not for look the 2 obvious candidates for the 2 places.
Bolger/Carberry and Mullins/Mullins should see the front 2 dominating this bumper.
The only 2 under 16/1 and this is a flat race.
If place betting, we should assume Colonel and Not for will both place

SHORTLIST
1130am - De Graafschap v Ajax - 1.29 away - just mentioned as an "out of hours bet" - please look out for these bets that are out of the scope of this message.
130pm - ADO Den Haag v PSV - 1.38 away - PSV in superb goalscoring form. 1.19 over 1.5 goals features a side conceding v a side scoring regularly.
600pm - Santander v Barcelona - 1.28 away - the best footballing side in the world return to action. We have seen a number of opening day upsets, but comprehensive 2009/2010 season wins over Racing augur well for a side now with the superb David Villa. Barca scored 1st in 89.47% of all games last season so highly tradeable should they lead at any stage.
730pm - Genk v Lierse - 1.3 home - Genk look solid but this is not in running .
800pm - Mallorca v Real Madrid - 1.42 away - tough away match against a side with a solid home reputation. BUT importantly, Mallorca were undone by Barca, Real and Sevilla last season.

245 CURRAGH - Glor Na Mara looks solid but 3 runs in 3 weeks is a slight concern. 1.17 to place
535 GALWAY - as ever with bumpers a need to look at the market nearer race time but should be dominated with Colonel Mortimer and Not for Converting - flat race so no obstacles.


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
130pm - ADO Den Haag v PSV - 1.38 away - 1.19 over 1.5 goals looks solid and is tradeable.
600pm - Santander v Barcelona - 1.28 away - cannot foresee a weakness here ton the best footballing side in the world. Added stars should make them invincible this season. Comprehensive head to heads v Racing last season home and away ( 8 goals scored)
535 GALWAY - looks to be between Colonel Mortimer and Not for Converting here but bumpers require market consultation nearer the off.






--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

Saturday, 28 August 2010

28/8

Horse racing a concern today with the soft ground and the 620 REdcar would be a great race to chose one of 3 horses and hope he places. Would not desert the market leader but as it is 620pm I would need to look at the market nearer the off. No reason to desert the 2 obvious football bets in the hope of a return to winning ways. Chelsea or Man Utd, the simple choices today

*****ONE A DAY - 3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - back Chelsea at 1.13 match odds. Hope they can continue this strong home goalscoring form against a team they scored 7 against last season*****


Bad research yesterday. Pana's match was being held behind closed doors. Hence the home advantage evaporated . I could not find this little piece of info anywhere. The type of bet explained yesterday is also useless for this service as the 0-0 market is not liquid enough ( as I found out when unable to back 0-0 at a decent enough price - it was as low as 10.5 at the off - not quite the 14 I mentioned in the blog)
Price also rose from 1.28 to 1.37 for Pana which alerted me to some problem.
I should also have insisted upon trading as it was the first match of the season as this would have been the result


Soccer > Panathinaikos v Xanthi : Match Odds Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections
Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Panathinaikos 1.37 173.00 Back 27-Aug-10 19:35 -173.00
Panathinaikos 1.15 206.09 Lay 27-Aug-10 20:09 206.09
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: -173.00
Lay subtotal: 206.09
Market subtotal: 33.09
Commission @ 4.71%: 1.56
Net Market Total: 31.53

The equivalent of a 1.15 back bet sits comfortably with me. Trading is 2nd nature to me and should have been insisted upon.
All of this and Piceno won with ease. Disappointing.
Some solace elsewhere if anyone decided to lay Galway at 1.19 ( drew 1-1) but this is a one a day so disappointment in final selection

FOOTBALL
115pm - Amkar v Rostov - 1.28 home - 5 1-0's in their last 6 games really do not scream at us to back Amkar at 1.28. Ditto with head to heads which change between teams as far as victories are concerned.
Rostov have been in good enough form recently. +1.5 to + 2 in the asian handicaps. I simply cannot see, from a form perspective, where this 1.28 for Amkar comes from ( yes only 2 games into the season but Rostov have not shown any weakness recently.) In running .
2pm - FC Kiisto v KajHa - 1.37 home - contrasting form

Home team Kiisto Vaas have a home record of 7-3-0 (W-D-L) for their 10 home games this season, 24 points from a possible 30. That's a home points average of 2.40 compared to 1.60 for all games this season. Kiisto Vaas's recent points average is 1.50, 9 points from 6 games 2-3-1 (W-D-L) Kiisto Vaas's last 10 league games record reads LWDWDWDWDL (LWDWDWDWDL) while their last 10 home league games read WDWDWWWWWD (WDWDWWWWWD).

Away team KajHa have an away record of 1-2-7 (W-D-L) for their 10 away games this season, 5 points from a possible 30. That's an away points average of 0.50 compared to 0.80 for all games this season. KajHa's recent points average is 0.83, 5 points from games; KajHa's last 10 league games record reads WDLLLDLLWD (WDLLLDLLWD) while their last 10 away league games read LDLDLLLLLW (LDLDLLLLLW).

Kajha have won most recent head to head 1-0 and Kiisto have won last 3 home 1-0, 1-0, 2-1 so tight game in prospect?

2pm - HB Koge v Hobro - 1.36 home - Hobro well beaten in August league matches contrast with Koge who have won 2 August away matches 2-1 and drawn 1 home match 1-1. Koge seem to have the momentum here against a Hobro side who have conceded 11 in 3 league matches in August - NOT IN RUNNING and a feeling that a goals bet might come in BUT as with St Pats yesterday, I prefer goals bets in in running matches as we can end up with an early 2-0 and the game can stay 2-0 with an inability to trade. 4/9 over 2.5 goals at Bet365 is NOT TRADEABLE
230pm - Schalke v Hannover - 1.42 home - 2-1 away loss to Hamburg for Schalke and Hannover won 2-1 at home. Far too early in the season to garner any form lines. Last season hannover only won 4 away matches against bottom 5 sides. Schalke have won the last 3 home head to heads. April 2010 saw 4-2 Hannover win. Goals bet safer here? 1.27 over 1.5 goals for this in running match?
230pm - W Bremen v FC Koln - 1.42 - where Werder Bremen go, goals usually follow thanks to a Keeganesque footballing style. 4-1 away loss to Hoffenheim continues the over 2.5 goals in Werder matches.BUT 2010 and 2009 head to heads are 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 (koln home win) - bogie team for Werder? With Bayern losing yesterday there is some incentive for Werder. IN RUNNING - perhaps have a break from over 2.5 goals today given the head to heads.
3pm - Blackpool v Fulham - 2.34 away - astonishing price for Fulham here against a team exposed by Arsenal last weekend as poor. Blackpool exposed Wigan as poor and I don't think that match is typical of what Blackpool will achieve in the Premiership. They have a reputation for goals which may serve over 2.5 goals backers. Fulham have drawn 2 so far including 2-2 against United. I suppose their 2.34 away quote is down to the fact that they were horrendous away from home last season. They won only 1 match away last season. New manager this season. 10 goals in 2 matches for Blackpool - over 1.5 goals in this match? 1.34 BUT asian handicaps point at a very tight match +0.5 and +1 . Still I could risk a Blackpool lay.
3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.13 home - 6-0 and, erm, 6-0 for Chelski so far this season. Head to heads 7-0, 2-0, 1-2, 2-1 all to Chelsea. Asians start at +2 so this game, from the market's perspective, is over already.
3pm - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.22 - Rangers would hope that Kenny Miller continues his great forward play again today - Old Firm usually reliable sub 1.25 - St Johnstone won 4-1 in their last league encounter and surely this must be banished today? St Johnstone have been tight of late. Rangers are in good health with 2-1 home win and 3-0 away win ( well done Kenny Miller in what was a tight match for a long time)
3pm - Redditch Utd v Telford - 1.35 away - superb August for Telford but again the head to heads give mixed messages. Should we go with recent form over this head to head stats? REdditch have lost all 4 matches in August, and conceded 9 and 5 in 2 matches. Considering Telford have scored 5 twice so a goals bet here? - only match odds available alas on betfair but do check Bet365.
3pm - Tottenham v Wigan - 1.28 - will there be any hangover from superb midweek performance for Spuds against a Wigan side who I suspect will become increasingly defensive with each consecutive loss. Remember last season those anomolous results for Spuds against Hull and Wolves at home. Has this been ironed out? Spurs have drawn 1 and won 1 and are priced to beat a bedraggled Wigan well. Spurs have won 3 and lost 1 1-0 in last 4 head to heads.
Wigan have conceded 10 in the league in 2 matches so this is an ideal chance for the Spuds. Will they be affected by mid week emotions in Champions League? +1 to +2 asians are a little cautious.
445pm - FC Basel v Neuchatel Xamax - 1.3 home - over 2.5 goals in all head to heads . Basel have scored 3 minimum in last 3 head to heads.
Xamax beat Young Boys 1-0 away recently which is somewhat anomolous but bear in mind Young Boys might have been thinking about Champions League clash with Spurs?Luzen is the only anamolous result for Basel but Xamax have also lost 4-2 to Luzen so perhaps Luzen are in good order this season.Basel won their other 2 by 3 goals ( that number again)
530pm - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.16 home - the Hamsters really impressed with their emphatic 1-0 Cup win against new to the Football League Oxford United......NOT and are likely to be exposed again against a good-goalscoring-form Man Utd - Fergie has said United must win their home matches, and equally, must win anyway with Chelsea likely to win again. West Ham have lost 2, conceding 3 at each stage ( which ties in with the 1.16 United home quote) Asians start at +2.
630pm - Iraklis v Olympiakos - 1.5 away - Panathanaikos drew as we know and their likely market rivals for the title can get one up on them already . Not for me today as 1-0 Iraklis win last time in head to heads .
7pm - Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem - 1.32 home - have scored 4 in their 2 home matches, 3 in one away match and 0-0 in another . 2 1-1 away draws for Zulte Waregem should sound a slight note of caution - 0-0 in head to heads in 2010 again keeps that draw theme .Anderlecht have won last 3 home head to heads though.NOT in running.
730pm - CFR Cluj v Pandurii - 1.4 home - last 4 meetings have been 1-0's and 1-1 between these 2 - no thanks!!
745pm - Roma v Cesena - 1.32 home -first game of the season and guess what? Yes, promoted side away to likely title contenders ( see Marseille v Caen!!!) . Should be a home win for Roma. Nothing to go on bar reputation and what the market makers think. +1 to +2
915pm - Benfica v Setubal - 1.25 home - lost their first home match of the season at similar odds and really need a victory or the title may be diminishing this early in the season. 2 2-1 losses for Benfica is crisis time already . Porto and nacional are the only 2 sides with 100% records. Benfica MUST win and hope to replicate their awesome home form of last season. Benfica won 2 of last 3 head to heads ( 1-1 draw , 8-1 win and 4-0 away win for Benfica) - 2-1's for Benfica could signal over 1.5 goals ? 1.21 in odds includes both sides and covers any shocks.

Soft ground at Goodwood and Newmarket is offputting today.

145 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Codemaster, 4/1 Tijori, 5/1 Blue Tiger´s Eye, 11/2 Elusivity, 7/1 State Of Mind, 16/1 Cinderkamp, St Augustine, 20/1 Good Timin´, 25/1 Bouggatti, Granny Anne, 50/1 Aquilifer, Monsieur Jamie, 66/1 Munro´s Dragon,

DIOMED VERDICT: Ability to act on a soft surface has to be taken on trust with most of these, the sole exception being Bouggatti who probably needs further. If CODEMASTER improves as anticipated from his Salisbury debut second he is likely to be hard to beat. Elusivity may prove the pick of the others,

Blue Tiger's Eye is now 6/4 all red fav. A debutant in this maiden for Godolphin - Ted Durcan onboard.

155 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Pandoro De Lago, 5/2 Sahafh, 11/2 Lady Amakhala, 8/1 The Shrew, 10/1 Question Times, 12/1 Sovereign Street, 16/1 Abdicate, El Torbellino, 20/1 Kalleidoscope, 66/1 Auburn Lady, Lady Chloe.

DIOMED VERDICT: PANDORO DE LAGO and Sahafh have similar profiles in that they both cost six figures, represent powerful stables and have shown promise on both outings. Preference is for Richard Fahey's filly.

Only 5 under 25/1 here the ones to concentrate on? Question times is a very interesting market mover into near joint favouratism. And it is a CHappel-Hyam horse ridden by the excellent Joe Fanning. Another debutant in a maiden fillies race.

435 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Clonard Lad, 9/4 Dark Prospect, 6/1 Henro Boy, 8/1 Riverstown, 12/1 Gala Dancer, Rhum And Coke, 14/1 Fairwood Massini, 20/1 El Romo, 25/1 Son Of My Heart, 33/1 Claragh Native, Glorach, 50/1 Ladinsky, Nephin View, 66/1 Adropaupep, Black Smyths Land, Hilton Honey, Revivalism, Sir Bill Nich.

Faith in Ruby riding again for Willie Mullins on what is now an odds on favourite?

540 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Morache Music, 11/2 Sextons House, 6/1 Local Singer, Waking Warrior, 10/1 Jerrazzi, 16/1 Morermaloke, 20/1 Reginald Claude, Speedfit Girl, 25/1 Cocohatchee, Touch Of Red, 100/1 One Cool Chick.

DIOMED VERDICT: MORACHE MUSIC has created a very good impression on both starts and makes plenty of appeal

Price gapper and winner on good to soft. Soft ground at Windsor ( 3rd course with soft ground)

605 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Rheinland, 3/1 Star Neuville, 9/2 Never Before, 5/1 Accordingtojodie, 11/2 Tuskar, 8/1 One Fine Morning, 10/1 Sir Betsy, 16/1 Macklycuddy, 20/1 A Lou Ela.

Accordingtojodie now 6/5, all red and strongly fancied for guess who? Yes Mullins and Mullins.
Bumper

620 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alaskan Spirit, 11/8 Marston Moor, 9/1 Red Presence.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALASKAN SPIRIT sets a useful standard on his 6l win off 81 in a Hamilton nursery last time and is readily preferred to AW maiden winner Marston Moor.

They worked well yesterday these 3 horse races for 2 places. A flat race and ground not a problem. Follow the market? 2 will place, 1 will not.

SHORTLIST
2pm - HB Koge v Hobro - 1.36 home - this looks like a team who can score against a team conceding loads. 4/9 over 2.5 goals at Bet365 is NOT TRADEABLE. So a 2-0 final score ( whilst winning for a trader) is a losing bet.
230pm - Schalke v Hannover - 1.42 home - Schalke have the advantage in home head to heads but over 1.5 goals at 1.27 may be the bet to include both sides? ( 4-2 Hannover win last time they met) TRADEABLE as IN RUNNING
3pm - Blackpool v Fulham - 2.34 away -I said it before - an astonishing price for a team managed by Sparky. Poor away form precedes them. May be worth laying Blackpool and trade if Fulham score first or lead at any stage?
3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.13 home - 2 6-0's and 7-0 against Stoke last time they met ( similar to 8-0 v Wigan last time they met) -obvious chance for Chelski at home.1.14 over 1.5 goals includes both sides and does not nail colours to any mast.
3pm - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.22 - 4-1 St Johnstone shock win last time out. At home, Rangers expected to return to winning ways. 1.5 over 2.5 goals includes both sides ( would prefer over 1.5 goals) Kenny Miller in great form for Rangers and we could see a different animal today . IN RUNNING UNMANAGED MARKET
530pm - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.16 home - we are looking for obvious bets and here is another. United have scored 5 so far this season in 2 matches and Fergie has insisted United must win all home matches. Likely to be playing catch up with Chelsea come 445pm adds to the significance of this match with Arsenal playing a tricky away encounter against Blackburn.
7pm - Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem - 1.32 home - we have 2 sequences ( albeit in their early stages) 1) Anderlecht score 4 goals in each of their home matches 2) Zulte Waregem have drawn 2 away matches 1-1 . NOT IN RUNNING. Which will prevail?
915pm - Benfica v Setubal - 1.25 home - 1.21 over 1.5 goals is worth a shout given Benfica are faltering ( 2 2-1 losses)

155 BEVERLEY - one of those courses not overtly affected by ground concerns. This maiden race seems to revolve around 5 horses for 3 places with 3 closely matched.
Pandora De Lago 5/2 - 42 form
Sashafh - 5/2 ( 2/1 in places) - 32 form
Question Time - 11/4 ( in from likely 10/1) - debutant

I am sure the places may revolve around these 3 and it is optimistic to assume the front 3 will be these 3 - if only. All 3 are around 1.5 to place

435 GALWAY - Clonard Lad - Ruby to deliver on the big stage? Illiquid betting markets

605 GALWAY -market check nearer the off. Accordingtojodie is Mullins/Mullins market mover.

620 REDCAR -3 horses and 2 places - to go with the market? Alaskan Spirit 1.13 and Marston Moor 1.23 ( illiquid place only markets)

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
2pm - HB Koge v Hobro - 1.36 home -if only there was a goals option on Betfair. Looks like scorers v conceders here. Concern with the weakness of the Division ( which can lead to inconsistency in results) - might just be worth risking Koge. NOT IN RUNNING so dangerous if 1-0 for a concerted period but I do expect goals.
3pm - Chelsea v Stoke - 1.13 home -could be an easy way out for one a day today? 12 goals in 2 games this season and remember last 5 home games last season ( 4-1 west ham , 7-1 Aston Villa, 1-0 Bolton , 7-0 Stoke, 8-0 Wigan) Have already played Wigan and won 6-0, and priced to beat Stoke comprehensively today.
530pm - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.16 - West Ham have conceded 3 in their last 3 matches. 3-0 and 4-0 wins for Man Utd last season against the Hammers pretty much in line with 1.16 odds.
915pm - Benfica v Setubal - 1.25 home - over 1.5 goals at 1.21 includes both sides. TRADEABLE

SPECULATIVE MULTIPLE
8 Selections Chosen
1HB Koge v Hobro (Laying Hobro @ 13.85)
2W Bremen v FC Koln (Laying FC Koln @ 9.44)
3Rangers v St Johnstone (Laying St Johnstone @ 33.91)
4Tottenham v Wigan (Laying Wigan @ 16.3)
5Chelsea v Stoke (Backing Chelsea @ 1.1)
6Man Utd v West Ham (Backing Man Utd @ 1.13)
7Anderlecht v Zulte-Waregem (Laying Zulte-Waregem @ 12.44)
8Roma v Cesena (Laying Cesena @ 16.24)

8-Folds
SelectionsOdds*StakePotential win
1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 81.93£100.00£93.00
*Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info
Total stake: £100.00
Your total potential win: £93.00

Flies in the ointment? Werder Bremen match ( 1-0's in head to heads, always a worry Koln could score the solitary goal) Very speculative and a chance to hedge the in running matches .

605 GALWAY - Accordingtojolie looks well backed and Spotlight mentions to " note the market" - a bumper race so a flat race and a look at the market nearer the off but the Mullins/Mullins combo must be respected here.

Soft ground means I am not willing, again, to involve myself in ground , especially with a number of maidens ( young horses and ground conditions)

620 REDCAR - a chance in a flat race to chose one of the 2 market leaders and hope he does not get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race - no ground concerns here either.



--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94