Wednesday, 31 August 2011
31/8
Passing stranger is 1.09 to place in the first 2 and 1.23 to win." impossible to oppose" enough to back the win? Or take the insurance of 2 places and back with Randers for a 1.17 bet?
Fredericka are the value in the danish Cup, having scored 3-4-3 recently they face opponents on the back of a 5-1 hiding in their lower leagues.
Faith in Ruby Murray and 3-0 sets today in the 1st round US Open? 1.26 of some appeal and better approached with trading in mind.
Goverla Zakarpatia seem worthy of the 1.13 odds today but I am no Ukrainian 2nd division expert. They should win minimum 1-0 but the previous £13K lay money has disappeared making it an illiquid market.
Analysis of last race " the impression is there is significantly more to come" sides me with Dubawi Dancer here ( Come on Maggie the value here also in good form) in a race where we have 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 14/1
*****ONE A DAY - 400 BATH - DUBAWI DANCER TO PLACE ONLY - again Betfair SP preferable.*****
I hope the curse of the multiple handicap winner does not strike.
Dynamic duo not the 1.4 I envisaged, and Betfair SP of 1.19 did place.
3pm - Goverla Zakarpatia v Enerhetyk Burshtyn - 1.13 home - this is the Ukrainian 2nd division and likely to be illiquid. A whopping £34K at present at 1.13 offers us liquidity as backers in the match odds market. The goals markets are illiquid ( and remember this is sub 1.2 and as Esjberg showed, 4 goals or more could be likely.
| 06.05.2011 | D2 | Zakarpattya | 1-0 | Energetik Burshtin | |
| 25.09.2010 | D2 | Energetik Burshtin | 2-1 | Zakarpattya | |
| 24.05.2009 | D2 | Zakarpattya | 1-0 | Energetik Burshtin |
Zak are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches DDWWWWWWW and have only lost one of their last 12 matches in all competitions.
4 1-0's again leaves this goals search of ours slightly suspect.
8 of last 9 matches under 2.5 goals.
WWDWWWW at home in last 7 matches but again goal totals of 1-3-2-1-2-1-4 does not signal a huge goal trend today.
Opponents have lost their last 6 league games and now we might see where the goals will come from as they concede regularly.4-2-2-2-3-3- the goals conceded by Burshtin. The only thing Energetik about them is the goalkeeper stooping to pick the ball out of the net. Last 2 3 goal losses have been to nil.
They have failed to score in 5 of last 6 matches.
They have lost their last 3 away from home in the league, but prior to that, form read LWWDLWDLLL
1st v 18th with only 7 matches played. Limited trends with which to work but a hint this is Winners v Losers and a potential for a correct score to nil for the home side, only it is difficult to gauge their maximum goals scored. 1.13 indicates 3/4 or more, as does recent form where 3 is the maximum scored by Zakar. Burshtin have lost their last 2 matches 3-0 which backs this up. Over 2.5 goals then . A lot of 1-0's too makes this less than straightforward.
445pm - Allerod v Naestved - 1.43 away - Division 4 v Division 2 and Naestved have not drawn in their last 11 matches in all competitions.
445pm - Langeskov IF v Randers - 1.08 away - Randers are a Division 2 side who have not scored in their last 2 matches. Previous cup match saw them win 1-8 away. Langeskov I cannot find any info re them in the league. Assumption that this will be a 3/4 or more goal win for away side ( with a strong side out). Slight concern re not scoring in last 2 league matches but lower level opposition today.
445pm - Skovbakken v Fredericia - 1.39 away - D3W v D2 in the Danish Cup. Fred scored 3-4 in their last 2 league matches prior to a 1-1 draw recently so have goals in them if they are motivated for this match. 6-1-4-3-6 the total goals scored in Skov's last 5 matches. They are coming off the back of a 5-1 away league defeat. Potential for goals but you never know with teams with no head to heads history.
5pm - Germany U20 v Poland U20 - 1.36 home
| 24.03.2011 | U20 | Germany U20 | 1-1 | Poland U20 | |
| 10.10.2010 | U20 | Poland U20 | 0-1 | Germany U20 |
Don't mention the war! Normally with under 20 football/ under 17/ Womens/ the teams who historically dominate don't tend to . It may be value to take a contrarian view here ( if this was the first team a confident back of Germany would be the call). Under 2.5 goals is the call from head to heads.
Germany's last loss, though , was in October 2009 and since then they have won 7 and drawn 4.
At home, Germany are unbeaten in their last 12. All draws have been score draws ( 4 1-1's and a 2-2)
REcently Germany have scored 3-3-2-1-4-2-3-1 - the last 1 was against Poland. It is hard to know where in the pecking order Poland come as compared to the teams Germany scored 3-4 against.
Poland have won only 2 in their last 10 - 2-3 v Swiss and the Poles were 2-0 down at halftime.
And a 1-0 v Italy.Germany have beaten Italy 5-0 and 4-0 at home -is this a good gauge?
Only 2 relevant recent away performances - 1-0 loss v Italy ( Italy down to 10) and 1-1 draw with Germans ( Germans scored first)
I have a feeling that the first goal should indeed come from the Germans which may be an angle in? If Poland score, we might be on enhanced bet territory as Germans worse case is a score draw ( automatic 1.5 goals angle?)
6pm - Viborg v AaB - 1.54 away - 4 wins, 3 draws for away side in Division 1 playing WDW for Division 2 side so far this season.
7pm - Montpellier v Amiens - 1.47 home - Division 1 v Division 2 sides. Last met 2009 in Division 2 which tells us Montpellier are newcomers to the top flight. French Cup and home advantage, or would Montpellier prefer to prioritise the league?
Mont have scored 3-0-3-4 in their 4 league home matches recently which is solid form.
So far in D2, 1-0 loss and 1-1 draw for Amiens hints at defensive solidity ( down to 10 men in the 1-0 loss). This could be a tight match.
US OPEN
4pm - F Lopez v Ito - 1.11 home - 26th v 127th in the world. 1.11 hints at worse case 3-1 set betting - can we risk 3-0 sets to increase the odds? 2nd/2nd round for Lopez recently all on hard. For ito 2nd/2nd/QF/ 2nd, 1st - last 2 matches in straight sets defeats.
It doesn't scream out total confidence in Lopez. The market accounts though for the rankings.
4pm - K Bondarenko v Zvonareva - 1.14 away - 62nd v 2nd - 1 relevant hard court head to heads 7-5, 6-0 to Zvonareva hints that this might be tradable if Bond can keep it as tight 1st set.
QF and Semi in last 2 tournaments for Zvonareva on hard court as against 2 QF's in warm up hard court tournaments for Bond. I think Zvon could be layable at 1.14 initially if we can hope for a tight first set.
4pm - Soderling v Sorensen - 1.07 Soderling - Quarter Final (QF) for Sorensen in San Jose hard court. Soderling not played on hard court since March where he reached 3rd round in BNP Paribas and Sony Erikkson. - 6th in the world against Sorensen who has not got a ranking on the Betfair Stats site. 3-0 sets open here or is the lack of a pre US Open hard court pipe opener for Soderling a worry?
515pm - Del Potro v Volandri - 1.03 Del - 18th v 85th and a feeling Del should be ranked higher but injury has necessitated a fight up the rankings again.
1.03 signals potential for 3-0 Del set betting - 1.25 is a big price relative to other 1.03 shots .
1st round straight sets defeat for Volandri last hard court tournament recently. Del lost out to Federer in the 2nd round of Hard Court W & S on 17th August.
3 straight sets defeats out of 4 for Volandri in hard court tournaments. 3-0 in Aussie Open too.
6pm - Devvarman v A Murray - 1.02 Murray - recent winner of W & S hard court event - I think Djokovic retired. Murray in good order. 64th v 4th in the world. 1.26 3-0 Murray in sets.
630pm - Mello v Simon - 1.07 away - 113th v 12th - QF of W&S and knocked out by Murray for Simon. Big gulf in class herre -outside the top 100.
00.00am - Roddick v Russell - 1.1 Rodd - 21st v 96th - Semi final of Winston-Salem Open for Roddick recently means he is in good nick.Did not drop a set in 2nd, 3rd and QF.
A big server so should be solid trading material on serve.
400 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dubawi Dancer, 4/1 Only You Maggie, 5/1 Oriental Girl, 8/1 History Repeating, 14/1 Galloping Queen, 16/1 Levantera, 16/1 Miss Chicane.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only You Maggie is in good form and Oriental Girl goes well here but it could pay to keep following DUBAWI DANCER (nap) until the handicapper finds the limit of her ability. [Chris Wilson]
7 runners - 3 places - strong market leader and 4 under 16/1 must make Dubawi Dancer a solid place only horse here?
735 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sharp Relief, 7/2 Royal Bonsai, 11/2 Joe Rocco, 10/1 Mayan Flight, 12/1 Langtoon Lass, 14/1 Rapturous Applause, 16/1 Red Lite, 40/1 Srimenanti.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHARP RELIEF (nap) makes easily the most appeal on recent evidence and has a bit of potential. Royal Bonsai would appear the chief threat, but keep an eye on Joe Rocco who makes a big step up in trip for this handicap debut. Langtoon Lass might also be suited by the longer distance, judged on pedigree at least.[Richard Austen]
8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 14/1 - and Sharp relief should be competitive for the place. But faith in a class 6 0-65 handicap?
320 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Passing Stranger, 5/1 Dualite, 12/1 Enchanted Dream, 16/1 Choose The Moment, 16/1 Shadow Of The Sun, 20/1 Dolly Bay, 33/1 Suffolini.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The odds will be short but it is very hard to see beyond PASSING STRANGER, who in all likelihood will only need to repeat the form of her Windsor debut second in June to win this lesser contest with plenty to spare. Dualite is the tentative choice for second. [Mel Cullinan]
obvious one here .
510 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 The Playful Priest, 5/1 Truckers Benefit, 8/1 Cresswell Comander, 9/1 Dj Milan, 10/1 Ballyturn Boy, 25/1 Smart Agent, 33/1 Ar´r Afon Lewis, 33/1 Mustow Green.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With a good pedigree and a trainer who does fantastically well here, THE PLAYFUL PRIEST looks to have plenty in his favour. He is readily preferred to fellow newcomer Cresswell Comander with Truckers Benefit the pick of those with previous experience.[Stuart Redding]
6 under 33/1 here should make this a 50/50 race for 3 places. The Playful Priest is McCoy/curtis newcomer in this bumper. Market consultation ideal really. truckers has plenty of experience and at 4/1 looks like a perfect each way value alternative to the debutant.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Goverla Zakarpatia v Enerhetyk Burshtyn - 1.13 home - plenty of 1.13 available as someone wants to lay the home side. research points to a win. It could be 1-0 ( as have 4 of the home team's recent matches) or a 3/4 goal win as Burshtin have conceded 3 without scoring in their last 2 matches.445pm - Langeskov IF v Randers - 1.08 away - Randers have not scored in their last 2 league encounters but face lowly opponents in the Danish Cup. Expect that goal drought to end as a typical sub 1.2 should end ( 3/4 goals?)
445pm - Skovbakken v Fredericia - 1.39 away - Fred have the ability to score 3 or 4 as they have shown recently, this could make the 1.39 a nice price.
5pm - Germany U20 v Poland U20 - 1.36 home - Germany tend not to lose at home and could score first for traders.
6pm - Devvarman v A Murray - 1.02 Murray 3-0 for Ruby at 1.26 a goer? Or is it the usual rollercoaster?
400 BATH - Dubawi dancer has a great probability chance of placing here. 3 wins on the bounce might make him vulnerable to the win, but could he still be competitive for a 3rd place at least?
320 FOLKSTONE - 1.23 to win, 1.09 to finish in top 2 for Passing Stranger.
--------------------
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
Tuesday, 30 August 2011
30/8
*****ONE A DAY - 315 EPSOM - Dynamic Duo to place only*****
The late late show from KR Reykjavik but job done.
430pm - Klubi-04 v FC Kiffen - 1.37 home - Finnish division 3 - I don't think my knowledge stretches to the Finnish lower tiers. Likely an illiquid match too. It is researchable at www.soccerway.com and www.futbol24.com but I feel would be time wasted due to aforementioned illiquid markets.
445pm - OKS v Esbjerg - 1.18 away - Danish Cup and the odds look about right as Division 4 plays Division 2. I know esjberg and their recent matches have seen them score 2-2-3-3-5-2-3 and total goals of 3-3-4-4-4-9-5-3. Against a Division 4 side, they should score 4 minimum ( as per the sub 1.2 odds) - likely illiquid again for traders, but might be worthwhile getting involved. In all cup encounters I like seeing gulfs in leagues.
6-12-7-5-4- the total goals in OKS's last 5 matches augurs well for goals.
530pm - HIK v HB Koge - 1.42 away - Division 3A v Division 1 and Koge are struggling in the top tier.6 losses and a 3-0 home win. Will the Cup be a welcome distraction?
Both team's matches are full of goals.
745pm - Swindon v Southampton - 1.77 away - I venture into the lower leagues rarely but like to follow the hot teams and Soton are one of those.
| 26.02.2011 | L1 | Southampton | 4-1 | Swindon Town | |
| 11.09.2010 | L1 | Swindon Town | 1-0 | Southampton | |
| 31.08.2010 | JPT | Southampton | 0-3 | Swindon Town | |
| 16.03.2010 | L1 | Southampton | 0-1 | Swindon Town | |
| 18.08.2009 | L1 | Swindon Town | 1-0 | Southampton |
league Cup and both teams of contrasting fortunes. One went down to League 2 and the other up to the Championship. At Swindon, Swindon have won 1-0 in both recent encounters. All down to team news for a Soton side with 5 wins and a 3-2 away loss v Leicester.Swindon have not had a draw in their last 12 and have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
US OPEN - look for big guns and back them to win in straight sets to enhance the odds.
6pm - Wozniacki v Llagostera Vives - 1.05 - one of the big guns and look immediately to 2-0 sets.
715pm - Djokovic v Niland - 1.01 - 3-0 sets? Look also for possible shock and swoop at better odds. 1.02 layable of course for minimal risk.
Midnight - Golubev v Nadal - 1.03 Nadal - again trust 3-0 sets?
2am - Jovanovski v S Williams -1.04 Williams - Mike Tyson's twin brother Serena returns.
315 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Albamara, 7/4 Burano, 7/1 Dynamic Duo, 12/1 Shivsingh, 14/1 Tallevu, 33/1 Edensor, 33/1 Le Cagnard, 50/1 Paloma´s Prince.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A less competitive maiden than the ones Burano has been contesting and he looks sure to go close, but ALBAMARA was unfortunate on her debut at Kempton last week and she can gain compensation.[Adrian Cook[
8 runners - 3 places - 3 under 20/1 and obviously Dynamic Duo is the each way value alternative. Burano has had 3 runs, the rest are all one time outers open to improvement.
325 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dick Doughtywylie, 4/1 Always The Lady, 6/1 Late Telegraph, 10/1 Red Lago, 14/1 Astragal, 25/1 Mafeteng, 66/1 Touching The Stars, 100/1 Royal Reason.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be plenty more to come from DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE, who made an encouraging debut at the Newmarket July meeting, and he should get off the mark. Always The Lady has not really built on her 2yo promise, while it will be interesting to see what the market makes of the 320,000gns buy Late Telegraph who is equipped in a hood for his debut.[Adrian Cook]
8 runners - 3 places - 3 under 14/1 adn an odds on shot who must have a good chance of placing if the odds are accurate ( it is a maiden after all)
Goodwood has nearly all 8/9 runner races which scream out for each way involvement if so inclined. 8 runners is the minimum which pays out on 3 places.
2pm RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Janet´s Pearl, 4/1 En Fuego, 6/1 Yorksters Prince, 12/1 Umbonga, 20/1 Spread Boy, 25/1 Fairys In A Storm, 40/1 May Burnett, 40/1 Sally Anne.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's impossible to oppose JANET'S PEARL who is 1-1 at Ripon, 2-3 in selling grade and well clear on adjusted official ratings. En Fuego and Yorksters Prince look set for minor honours.[Steve Boow]
2 under 10/1 and "impossible to oppose" Janet to place? en fuego the value alternative albeit in a seller.
440 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ghost Train, 3/1 Three Sugars, 4/1 Scrooby Doo, 6/1 Bogey Hole, 10/1 New Romantic, 16/1 Bengaline, 33/1 Echo Of Dubai, 50/1 Gilly´s Giant.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Anything saddled by Jeremy Noseda wants considering at the moment and, while newcomer Three Sugars doesn't hold any notable entries, she's related to winners. Scrooby Doo has plenty of Fibresand experience but is limited, and GHOST TRAIN, who found it all too much on his first day at school last month, is given the chance to show what he's capable of.[Graham Wheldon]
Another 8 runner race today for 3 places and Scrooby doo interests as he has the most experience.
755 WOLVERHAMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Change The Subject, 5/1 Mahfal, 6/1 Kyllachy Spirit, 10/1 Swooping Hawk, 14/1 Midnight Waltz, 20/1 Akarana, 20/1 Fairest Isle, 20/1 Novirak, 20/1 Our Freedom, 100/1 Millers Dhustone, 100/1 My Cherie Amour, 100/1 Noneedtofret.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of these make much appeal in the short term and the pair to concentrate on could be Mahfal and CHANGE THE SUBJECT. The former is bred to be useful and has joined a stable who are likely to maximise his ability, but the selection looked an improved performer on his handicap debut earlier in the month and a reproduction of that form should suffice.[Paul Smith]
A big price gapper, even bigger in the live betting, but note the race time ! Need to see the market a bit nearer to 8pm than 1020am!
As an aside, there are many 8/9 runner races throughout the cards today and if you want to speculate the bigger prices, and take on the favourites, then each way betting is the way to go with these 8/9 runner races. Perhaps each way doubles and trebles ( to throwaway stakes?) I cannot recall a day as each way friendly as this one.
11 8/9 runner races and remember the bookies hate each way betting for a reason! The odds are in your favour not theirs!
SHORTLIST
445pm - OKS v Esbjerg - 1.18 away - likely an illiquid betting market on Betfair but I would be happy taking 1.18 given the gulf in the leagues. Goals looks on the cards too if we are basing the suggestion on recent form.
745pm - Swindon v Southampton - 1.77 away - team news key here really especially for Southampton.Could be value here.
6pm - Wozniacki v Llagostera Vives - 1.05 - 2-0 sets is 1.21 to back and 1.31 to lay suggesting no market forces at work ( if the market was liquid the gap between back and lay prices would be smaller). 1.21 for Woz - we need to see her recent form.
1st v 127th in the world. Woz won the NEw Haven Open on Hard just recently which should be a good pipe opener against an opponent who cannot get past the 1st and 2nd rounds recently. Confident 2-0 I would hope with a fully tuned up Woz.
315 EPSOM - an ideal race - 7 runners and 3 places now and 2 under 20/1 -the market leader is 1.09 to place but surely we can speculate on the only other horse under 20/1 - Dynamic Duo? 1.45 or thereabouts to place. He only has 4 to beat to place. A Richard Hannon 2 year old on only his 2nd run.
The absence of Burano must open up the places to Dynamic Duo?
325 GOODWOOD - another maiden and 3 under 16/1 - 1.12 to fav reasonable in the circumstances. We are though relying largely on maidens today to replicate solitary runs.
200 RIPON - 2 maidens and now a seller - poor racing so far, but again the profile of the race is interesting as 3 are under 16/1 here. En fuego the value alternative to the hot pot. 1.08 to place Janet's Pearl.1.31 En Fuego to place.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
445pm - OKS v Esbjerg - 1.18 away - I'm still happy with this Danish Cup tie as long as Esbjerg play a first team against Division 4 opponents. Yes it is away and yes the market is illiquid.
6pm - Wozniacki v Llagostera Vives - 1.05 - 1.21 looks a cracking price for 2-0 sets but possibly could rise even further as the market forces get to work in the run up to 6pm
315 EPSOM - Dynamic Duo the value here surely in the absence of one of originally 3 under 20/1. Looks a cracking bet to place at the odds.
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
Monday, 29 August 2011
29/8
7pm - KR Reykjavik v Fram - Back KR in the match odds at 1.3***** - worse case should be a score draw . Leave bets til as near 7pm as possible as there is no money in the market at present. If this remains illiquid you will be backing a 1.3 shot at ridiculously valueless odds . Barca an obvious alternative and must win really, but this could be an interesting trading match. they should score first and liquidity not an issue.
Of the horses, Roedean should make experience count for Hannon/Hughes against , it must be said, a lot of newcomers who could be proverbial dark horses.
Rangers won and I got the correct score, 2-0. Also, if you feel confident you can back NO in the Both teams to score market, if you think Rangers will win to nil
| Soccer > Rangers v Aberdeen : Both teams to Score? | Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections |
| Selection | Odds | Stake(€) | Bid type | Placed | Profit/loss(€) | |
| No | 1.76 | 37.00 | Back | 28-Aug-11 14:52 | 28.12 | |
| *Average odds: On Off | Back subtotal: | 28.12 | ||||
| Lay subtotal: | 0.00 | |||||
| Market subtotal: | 28.12 | |||||
| Commission @ 4.59%: | 1.29 | |||||
| Net Market Total: | 26.83 | |||||
I only placed a £37 bet herre as it was a new market to me.
3pm - Alania Vladikavkaz v Shinnik - 1.36 home. - Russian 2nd division.
430pm - Haka v HJK Helsinki - 1.57 away - Finnish First Division - I said I was going to focus on soccerstats leagues this season but I am way ahead of schedule so will squeeze in this finnish league.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 18.06.2011 | D1 | FC Haka | 0-5 | HJK Helsinki | |
| 18.02.2011 | LC | FC Haka | 0-3 | HJK Helsinki | |
| 28.01.2011 | CF | HJK Helsinki | 1-1/p.3-4 | FC Haka | |
| 24.07.2010 | D1 | FC Haka | 0-3 | HJK Helsinki | |
| 26.04.2010 | D1 | HJK Helsinki | 1-1 | FC Haka | |
| 31.01.2010 | CF | HJK Helsinki | 3-0 | FC Haka |
5pm - Omonia v Alki Larnaca - 1.19 home - 1st match of a new Cypriot league so watching brief advised. Omonia have only drawn 1 match in their last 12 - an angle in?
530pm - LKS Lodz v Legia Warsaw - 1.81 away
| 16.07.2010 | CF | Legia Warszawa | 2-1 | LKS Lodz | |
| 02.05.2009 | D1 | Legia Warszawa | 1-0 | LKS Lodz | |
| 18.11.2008 | LC | LKS Lodz | 2-3 | Legia Warszawa |
You know as well as I do, though, that getting stuck in based on 3 and 4 matches and no recent head to heads is not ideal !
6pm - Maccabi Tel Aviv v FC Ashod - 1.42 home - Israeli top flight not on soccertats.
6pm - Rosenborg v Odd Grenland - 1.65 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 30.05.2011 | D1 | Odd Grenland BK | 3-3 | Rosenborg BK | |
| 18.07.2010 | D1 | Rosenborg BK | 1-1 | Odd Grenland BK | |
| 11.04.2010 | D1 | Odd Grenland BK | 1-3 | Rosenborg BK | |
| 02.08.2009 | D1 | Odd Grenland BK | 1-1 | Rosenborg BK | |
| 19.04.2009 | D1 | Rosenborg BK | 1-1 | Odd Grenland BK |
7pm - KR Reykjavik v Fram - 1.3 home - Icelandic league at soccerstats so I will investigate - 15/16 matches played too should inform us of good trends.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 29.05.2011 | D1 | Fram Reykjavik | 1-2 | KR Reykjavik | |
| 11.02.2011 | CF | KR Reykjavik | 0-0/p.5-3 | Fram Reykjavik | |
| 19.08.2010 | D1 | KR Reykjavik | 2-1 | Fram Reykjavik | |
| 29.07.2010 | Cup | KR Reykjavik | 4-0 | Fram Reykjavik | |
| 10.06.2010 | D1 | Fram Reykjavik | 2-3 | KR Reykjavik | |
| 14.02.2010 | CF | Fram Reykjavik | 2-4 | KR Reykjavik |
Nearly a clean sweep for KR
6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals, the others were 1-1 scorelines.
8pm - Barcelona v Villarreal - 1.22 home - this is the SPL on a grander scale, by which I mean 2 teams vying for the title and it's basically the first to lose who will lose this title. Real Madrid imperous yesterday, routing Zaragoza 0-6 away from home. Barca must win this match already!
| 02.04.2011 | D1 | Villarreal CF | 0-1 | FC Barcelona | |
| 13.11.2010 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 3-1 | Villarreal CF | |
| 01.05.2010 | D1 | Villarreal CF | 1-4 | FC Barcelona | |
| 02.01.2010 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 1-1 | Villarreal CF | |
| 10.05.2009 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 3-3 | Villarreal CF |
More high profile signings for Barca.
Only 1 loss at home last season, the famous loss against Hercules when the barca squad were on some meaningless friendly in Argentina representing Spain and Argentina if memory serves. They practically played that match with jetlag!
2.42 scored on average at home last season , 63% over 2.5 goals and squad strengthened by signings.
Barca score first in 84% of matches last season and led at halftime in 6 out of 10 matches.
Real put down a marker yesterday in a season which may hinge on the El Classico matches and goal difference?
12 home matches finished over 2.5 goals, 4 matches had 2 goals in them, so we can hope for over 2.5 goals for trading. It is likely to occur more often than not.
33 of 38 matches last season saw Barca matches go over 1.5 goals.
Quite simply a must win. A goals bet covers any potential shocks ( Rossi on fire for the Yellow Submarines) but this should be a home win to keep in Real Madrid's footsteps.
8pm - Shamrock Rovers v UCD - 1.2 home - irish Cup so no point doing any analysis - take the odds or leave the match alone. Both teams are in the same league.
845pm - Nacional v Benfica - 1.58 away - one of 4 likely to dominate Portugeuse football alongside Porto, Sporting and Braga.
| 22.01.2011 | D1 | SL Benfica | 4-2 | Nacional Madeira | |
| 21.08.2010 | D1 | Nacional Madeira | 2-1 | SL Benfica | |
| 14.03.2010 | D1 | Nacional Madeira | 0-1 | SL Benfica | |
| 03.01.2010 | LC | SL Benfica | 1-0 | Nacional Madeira | |
| 26.10.2009 | D1 | SL Benfica | 6-1 | Nacional Madeira | |
| 02.05.2009 | D1 | Nacional Madeira | 3-1 | SL Benfica |
Well, Nacional are competitive at home, and it's not coincidence. Consistently getting results at home in head to heads.2 wins from 3, and a small 0-1 loss.
Amazing season last season, where Benfica drew only 3 matches. Could this be a sign that they are all out, win or bust? Only one away draw last season. As with all non english leagues , I am not up with comings and goings in squad and management.
Benfica lost away to 1st, 4th, 5th , 6th last season ( Nacional were 6th)
Nacional only lost 4 at home last season, and 2 of those were 0-1. Likely this 1.58 layable initially, IF there is a move in the odds as it remains 0-0. Nacional could be tough to beat. This might be 0-0 halftime.
27% over 2.5 goals last season at home, and average 0.8 conceded at home for Nacional ( and anything under 1 is very good defensive work). Tough evening in store for Benfica.Porto have the only 100% record so far.
545 BANGOR ON DEE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Anna´s Arch, 3/1 Pampelonne, 100/30 Trackmate, 17/2 My Girl Millie, 20/1 Dessie Gray, 33/1 Best Excuse, 33/1 Future Dominion, 50/1 Darius Khan, 50/1 Deerhurst, 66/1 Kata Rock, 66/1 Lucky For Some.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very few to consider, and this may be safest left to ANNA'S ARCH, who left the impression there was still further improvement in him when making a successful debut under this rider at Perth nine days ago. Trackmate's second to dual summer scorer Bevnott last time marks him out as the likeliest threat, though he does have to respond the right way for the removal of blinkers. [Jeremy Grayson]
4 under 16/1 here in this conditional's bumper should dominate.
315 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kid Suitor, 6/1 Hyperlink, 6/1 Wayne Manor, 10/1 Tushuk Tash, 12/1 Khan Of Khans, 20/1 Dubai Rythm, 20/1 Kingscombe, 33/1 Bathwick Street, 100/1 Recway Striker.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KID SUITOR (nap) sets the standard after finishing second on his debut and has a good chance to go one better. [Chris Wilson]
3 under 14/1 in this maiden. Fav one time outer with favourable first run. Can we trust a 2 year old on only 2nd ever run? But it is a Hannon/Hughes 2 year old!
350 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Roedean, 4/1 Good Morning Star, 5/1 Brundon, 12/1 Abundantly, 12/1 Fleur De La Vie, 14/1 Johanna Fosie, 14/1 Little Dutch Girl, 33/1 Annaluna, 33/1 Sammie Fallon, 50/1 Kozmina Bay.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most interesting of the newcomers are Brundon and Good Morning Star but ROEDEAN can make her experience tell.[Adrian Cook]
Plenty of debutants and some support it would seem for Fleur de la Vie ( 12/1 betting forecast into 5/1 live betting market) - despite all the newcomers, I like the experience of Roedean and again faith in Hannon/Hughes to at least get the place.
Small fields at the jumps venues put me off them so far.
550 DOWNPATRICK
ETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Warwickshire, 5/1 Super Oscar, 6/1 Well Mett, 8/1 Wee Doll, 10/1 All Honours, 12/1 Owning Hill, 16/1 Lizzies Boy, 16/1 Local Knowledge, 20/1 Misty Blue.SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market should be a useful guide regarding the prospects of the four newcomers in the field but on overall form WARWICKSHIRE, runner-up at Tramore at his second attempt earlier this month, is taken over Super Oscar.
[Brian Fleming]
9 runner bumper and a price gapper with Nina Carberry onboard.
705 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Missy O´ Gwaun, 5/1 Louisville Lip, 13/2 Goldplated, 7/1 Virgil Earp, 8/1 Crying Aloud, 10/1 Horsewithnoname, 12/1 Neighbourly, 14/1 Teajaybe, 16/1 Driveheron.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The interesting one is MISSY O'GWAUN, who is certainly bred to be better than her current mark and the manner of her success at Tramore was encouraging with the future in mind. Crying Aloud can also make her presence felt.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Price gapper in an admittedly lowly handicap
415 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Pippa Greene, 100/30 Bullet Man, 10/1 Samarinda, 12/1 Cape Dutch, 14/1 Captains Measure, 14/1 Dear Maurice, 16/1 Far Flung, 20/1 Wulfrida, 25/1 Durgan, 25/1 Rainsborough, 33/1 Bin End, 33/1 Brunton Blue, 100/1 Millers Crossing, 100/1 Starbird.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pippa Greene is the most likely winner but he did fail favourite backers last time and BULLET MAN is a feasible alternative. Paul Webber's Flat winner was admittedly disappointing at Sedgefield but not all horses take a liking to that place and he's given another chance.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
2 2nd places for the fav augurs well in this maiden hurdle where only 2 are under 10/1 in the betting forecast -Pippa remains odds on in the live betting. Of course assumption is that the horse will complete.
250 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 The Osteopath, 9/4 Bold Marc, 7/1 Master Of Dance, 14/1 Monthly Medal, 20/1 Dechiper, 20/1 Isheforreal, 50/1 Charity Fair.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bold Marc and The Osteopath should go well but NICHOLAS POCOCK is not out of it on these terms if turned out again after running respectably at Beverley yesterday.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
4 under 12/1 here in a now 8 runner race. This is a class 6 claimer so perhaps not an ideal race, but a good profiled race - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 12/1
325 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Position, 9/2 Quick Bite, 6/1 Alborz, 6/1 New Decade, 10/1 Loyal Master, 12/1 Mcvicar, 20/1 Flurry Of Hands.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POSITION (nap) is Sir Mark Prescott's only runner on the card and his chosen representative from two options at the five-day stage. It's hard to draw any firm conclusions from his maiden win but he has the build to carry top weight in this ground and his assured stamina (bred to stay at least 1m2f) could come in very handy. Alborz should make more of a race of it with a 17lb pull, while Quick Bite and Lady Layla could also be on competitive marks.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
A nursery ( or 2 year old handicap) and Prescott/Sanders market leader and only runner on the card must be mentioned. Again an ideal race as this is now a 7 runner race for 3 places with 3 under 10/1
SHORTLIST
430pm - Haka v HJK Helsinki - 1.57 away - lay the draw obvious here but if the draw is unlikely to occur we have away win or home win. I would go with the odds and the overwhelming recent form of HJK Helsinki to get an away win.6pm - Rosenborg v Odd Grenland - 1.65 home - Rosenborg in a false league position and are on a winning run at home. 1.65 relatively big. Both sides could score today making a goals bet appealing. 1.2 over 1.5 goals appeals ( albeit only £1K available)
7pm - KR Reykjavik v Fram - 1.3 home - unbeaten this season and scored in all matches. Score draw worse case scenario which points to over 1.5 goals. 1.17 over 1.5 goals. KR will either score draw or win, and I would chance the 1.3 too for the home win.
8pm - Barcelona v Villarreal - 1.22 home - a trader's dream. Real won yesterday. barca must win today and only lost one away last year to Hercules at home. Villareal have a smokin' Rossi upfront. 1.12 over 1.5 goals looks in the bag here , 1.4 is tradeable for over 2.5 goals.
350 CHEPSTOW - Roedane looks to have the experience and the connections to get a place at least. Slight risk with so many debutants in attendance. They could, of course, be anything!
1.25 to place reasonable. Watch out for market movers One already is Fleur de la vie. There is bound to be some market movement for some debutants.
550 DOWNPATRICK - warwickshire has Nina Carberry up, and although a market look is advised, this current price gapper looks worthy of support.
325 NEWCASTLE - Position to place? Handicap king Prescott's sole runner on the card appears in this nursery with Sanders up. 7 horses , 3 places and an increased probability of placing.
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Sunday, 28 August 2011
28/8
I am going back to Scotland. I know that Celtic let me down last week , and that was largely due to a missed 3 minute pen which could have changed the dynamic of the match. Rangers have kept 3 away clean sheets and are playing a team who have not scored in 4. 0-0 is the killer and risk could be reduced with a 0-0 insurance bet, but 1.29 appeals today and the hope Rangers can keep that 1 point lead over Celtic.
*****ONE A DAY - 3pm - Rangers v Aberdeen - back Rangers in the match odds at 1.29*****
No 1-1 draw to scupper a horse racing bet! 1.19 Betfair SP for Elusive Pimpernel to place in a 6 horse race for 3 places.
1230pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v Paderborn - 1.43 home - German 2nd tier. 1-1 back in 2008 so one of these is a newcomer to this league. 2 1-1 home draws for Frankfurt so far and the probability of a 3rd 1-1 must be small surely. They are great away scoring 3-3-4 in 3 away matches and 2 clean sheets.
Paderborn away lost 3-0 and won 2 matches 2-1 so are in reasonable form.Those 2 wins the only ones this season.
I would oppose 1-1 here ( but odds of 11 are a bit high for the layer) - alternately back Frankfurt with a 1-1 insurance cover? You will get some movement in the odds if either team scored ( particularly Paderborn first)
Again not much info to work on this early in the season.
1245pm - Bronshoj v Randers - 1.58 away - Danish 2nd tier and not a prioritised match.
1245pm - St Mirren v Celtic - 1.42 away - yet another must win as they cocked it up at home last time as Rangers were away and Celtic had what looked like an easy match ( missed 3 minute penalty did not help) - only one of the last 22 meetings between these 2 has ended in a draw - quite a stat from Racing Post.
2 1-0's at home for St Mirren ( win and loss) and a 1-0 and 2-0 away win so far for Celtic.
For me, that 1.42 is layable, but I was watching the Rangers price last week and it did not move much after 20 minutes. To see a tradable price move having laid at 1.42 we may need to wait a while. Will Celtic lose 2 on the trot? Surely it cannot be tolerated?
1pm - Newcastle v Fulham - 2.32 home - another example of transfer market changes which might affect the dynamic of the Geordies. The t#at that is Joey Barton is no longer at the side. I found yesterday tough to get angles into because teams like Liverpool had so many changes ( which turned out positive!) The odds suggest a tight affair again.
From www.premierleague.com
"
After a midweek trip to Ukraine to play Dnipro, Fulham arrive at St James' Park in search of their first Barclays Premier League win of the season.
Manager Martin Jol will be looking for a significant improvement after the disappointment of last week's away defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers, while Alan Pardew will be hoping Newcastle can build on last week's 0-1 victory at rivals Sunderland.
When these teams met on Tyneside last season, they played out a 0-0 draw."
0-0 draw last season - now why does that not surprise me.
Joey Barton is unlikely to be included in the Newcastle squad for Sunday's Barclays Premier League match with Fulham as he considers his future.
The 28-year-old has this week undergone a medical at QPR, but is yet to agree to join the promoted club, and manager Alan Pardew does not believe he would be in the right frame of mind to play.
Central defender Mike Williamson is facing up to six weeks on the sidelines after suffering an ankle injury in last night's 2-1 Carling Cup victory at Scunthorpe, while keeper Steve Harper will miss out with a knee problem and striker Shola Ameobi could be limited by a hip injury.
Fulham pair Bobby Zamora and John Arne Riise are doubts for the match.
The England international striker missed Thursday's Europa League play-off against Dnipro with an ankle injury and is rated 50-50 for the match at St James' Park.
Riise was forced off with a groin problem yesterday and has had a scan, while Simon Davies could face a further five months out with a knee injury.
Newcastle: Krul, Sodeberg, Simpson, R. Taylor, Ferguson, Coloccini, S. Taylor, Tiote, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Marveaux, Obertan, Gosling, Smith, Abeid, Ba, Shola Ameobi, Lovenkrands, Best, Vuckic, Sammy Ameobi.
Fulham: Schwarzer, Etheridge, Kelly, JA Riise, Hangeland, Baird, Senderos, Hughes, Halliche, Sidwell, Kasami, Murphy, Gecov, Duff, Etuhu, Dempsey, Johnson, Dembele, Zamora.
Zamora a significant miss I would suggest ( for me goalkeepers and forwards missing is key). And with Fulham failing to score in 4 of their last 5 away, this could be key. A hint that the early Europa League obligations are getting in the way?
1pm - OB v SonderjyskE- 1.5 home
HEAD TO HEADS| 25.04.2011 | D1 | SønderjyskE | 0-2 | Odense BK | |
| 25.10.2010 | D1 | Odense BK | 1-2 | SønderjyskE | |
| 14.08.2010 | D1 | SønderjyskE | 1-3 | Odense BK | |
| 03.05.2010 | D1 | SønderjyskE | 2-0 | Odense BK | |
| 13.03.2010 | D1 | Odense BK | 1-1 | SønderjyskE | |
| 25.07.2009 | D1 | Odense BK | 3-1 | SønderjyskE |
115pm - Nottm Forest v West Ham - 2.8 for Forest and 2.78 for West Ham signal what the bookies expect here - tighter than my brother when it's his round. Hammers win 2 on the road and should have beaten Leeds at home ( traders note they scored first and led 1-0 and 2-1 ) 2 draws for Forest at home so far, the key one a 2-2 v Leicester - v lucky as they were 0-2 down and a penalty and 90th minute goal got the point.
West Ham might look value today for the backer at 2.78 to trade off if they score first.
130pm - Dinamo Moscow v Spartak Nalchik - 1.28 home
130pm - Feyenoord v Heerenveen - 1.6 home - Heerenveen have conceded 2, 5 and 5 this season ( Ajax and Twente and Feyenoord are not quite up to their level yet)
One home match for Feyenoord was a 3-0 home win v Roda.
| 06.03.2011 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 0-1 | Feyenoord | |
| 14.11.2010 | D1 | Feyenoord | 2-2 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 02.05.2010 | D1 | Feyenoord | 6-2 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 12.12.2009 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 0-2 | Feyenoord | |
| 20.01.2009 | Cup | Feyenoord | 0-3 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 16.01.2009 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 3-1 | Feyenoord |
130pm - Tottenham v Man City - 2.46 away - City have impressed as has Aguero who should have scored 2 minimum in his last match.
Over the last two seasons, meetings between these sides have proved decisive in realising the clubs' respective Champions League ambitions.
Spurs find themselves in the Europa League this term and faced Hearts in midweek. Manager Harry Redknapp rested many of his first-team regulars with much of the work done in last week's 5-0 first-leg win.
This fixture sees the sides at the top and bottom of the Barclays Premier League going head-to-head. City have taken maximum points from their first two matches but bottom club Spurs have won 11 of the last 14 top-flight encounters against the Citizens.
Two ambitious sides, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City, meet in the first Barclays Premier League match of the season to take place at White Hart Lane.
Luka Modric looks set to make his first Tottenham appearance of the season after taking part in full training on Friday.
The Croatian has been carrying what has been diagnosed as a minor hamstring complaint but should be fit, along with Jermaine Jenas and Alan Hutton, who have recovered from recent Achilles and knee injuries respectively
William Gallas (calf), Steven Pienaar (groin), Ledley King, Wilson Palacios and Sandro (all knee) miss out while loan signing Emmanuel Adebayor is unavailable to play against his parent club.
New signing Samir Nasri could make his Manchester City debut in Sunday's Barclays Premier League match at Tottenham.
Midfielder Nigel de Jong is out with a foot problem but manager Roberto Mancini has no other injury concerns.
Carlos Tevez could also feature but is again likely to be on the bench due to a lack of match sharpness.
Tottenham: Gomes, Friedel, Cudicini, Bale, Kaboul, Bassong, Dawson, Corluka, Walker, Hutton, Assou-Ekotto, Huddlestone, Lennon, Van der Vaart, Modric, Jenas, Kranjcar, Livermore, Townsend, Bentley, Pavlyuchenko, Crouch, Defoe, Dos Santos.
Manchester City: Hart, Richards, Zabaleta, Savic, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Kolarov, Boyata, Johnson, Barry, Milner, Silva, Y Toure, Wright-Phillips, Balotelli, Dzeko, Aguero, Tevez, Pantilimon, Taylor.
| 10.05.2011 | PR | Manchester City | 1-0 | Tottenham | |
| 14.08.2010 | PR | Tottenham | 0-0 | Manchester City | |
| 05.05.2010 | PR | Manchester City | 0-1 | Tottenham | |
| 16.12.2009 | PR | Tottenham | 3-0 | Manchester City | |
| 16.05.2009 | PR | Tottenham | 2-1 | Manchester City |
145pm - Zenit St Petersburg v FK Krasnodar - 1.22 home - not on soccerstats.com and time limits mean I only want to focus on soccerstats sides.
3pm - Debrecen v Ujpest - 1.42 home - as above
3pm - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg - 1.38 home - showing the consistency that traders want to see, Copenhagen return home.
HEAD TO HEADS| 25.04.2011 | D1 | FC København | 2-0 | Silkeborg IF | |
| 24.10.2010 | D1 | Silkeborg IF | 0-3 | FC København | |
| 11.09.2010 | D1 | FC København | 2-2 | Silkeborg IF | |
| 09.05.2010 | D1 | Silkeborg IF | 2-0 | FC København | |
| 25.10.2009 | D1 | FC København | 1-0 | Silkeborg IF | |
| 01.08.2009 | D1 | FC København | 1-1 | Silkeborg IF |
Silkeborg unable to score in last 2 meetings, but were thorns in the side in previous encounters.
3pm - Rangers v Aberdeen - 1.29 home
| 13.04.2011 | PR | Aberdeen FC | 0-1 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 13.11.2010 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 2-0 | Aberdeen FC | |
| 26.09.2010 | PR | Aberdeen FC | 2-3 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 07.04.2010 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 3-1 | Aberdeen FC | |
| 28.11.2009 | PR | Aberdeen FC | 1-0 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 26.09.2009 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 0-0 | Aberdeen FC |
4 wins on the trot in head to heads. Last 2 home matches wins.
Naismith and Jelavic look key players for Rangers.
3pm - West Brom v Stoke - 2.38 home
After their midweek Europa League exploits against FC Thun, Stoke face West Brom with both teams looking for their first Barclays Premier League victory of the season.
While the Baggies are yet to pick up a point following defeats to Manchester United and Chelsea, Stoke are undefeated after drawing with Andre Villas-Boas' side and new boys Norwich City.
In the same fixture last season, Stoke romped to a 3-0 victory at The Hawthorns thanks to a Matthew Etherington strike and a brace from Jon Walters.
West Brom coach Roy Hodgson is considering whether to give a first start of the season to striker Peter Odemwingie in Sunday's home Barclays Premier League matchh with Stoke.
The Nigeria international, Albion's top scorer with 15 goals last term, has recovered from an ankle injury suffered in pre-season and came on as a substitute during last weekend's 2-1 defeat at Chelsea.
Midfielder Zoltan Gera is the only player currently sidelined as he builds up his fitness after ankle surgery.
Stoke have influential duo Robert Huth and Matthew Etherington back for the encounter.
The pair return to the Potters squad having both been suspended for last night's Europa League play-off victory over FC Thun.
Manager Tony Pulis withdrew Jermaine Pennant in the second half of that match as a precaution and hopes the winger will be fit to face the Baggies, while Rory Delap will also be assessed for a hamstring problem.
West Brom: Foster, Reid, Tamas, Dawson, Olsson, Shorey, Brunt, Scharner, Mulumbu, Morrison, Long, Tchoyi, Odemwingie, Dorrans, Fulop, Cox, Jara, McAuley, Cech, Thomas.
Stoke: Begovic, Wilson, Huth, Shawcross, Upson, Collins, Pugh, Wilkinson, Whelan, Whitehead, Diao, Etherington, Walters, Jones, Sorensen, Shotton, Tonge, Arismendi, Woodgate, Pennant, Delap, Soares.
Some signifcant returnees for both sides.
| 28.02.2011 | PR | Stoke City | 1-1 | West Bromwich | |
| 20.11.2010 | PR | West Bromwich | 0-3 | Stoke City | |
| 04.04.2009 | PR | West Bromwich | 0-2 | Stoke City |
Stoke only won 3 away last season ( and yes 1 was against WBA)
A management change for WBA a key addition. 0-0 and 1-1 for Stoke this season - tough to beat.
330pm - PSV v Excelsior - 1.14 home - Twente did the job at 1.17 yesterday scoring 4 ( as you would expect with sub 1.2 odds) - it's PSV, another of the Triumvirate, today sub 1.15 and expectation is for an easy 3/4 goal win.
| 05.03.2011 | D1 | SBV Excelsior | 2-3 | PSV Eindhoven | |
| 13.11.2010 | D1 | PSV Eindhoven | 4-2 | SBV Excelsior | |
| 26.01.2008 | D1 | PSV Eindhoven | 2-1 | SBV Excelsior |
345pm - Rubin Kazan v Kryliya Sovetov - 1.29 home - Russian top flight not on soccerstats -research available at www.soccerway.com and www.futbol24.com
4pm - Man Utd v Arsenal - 1.51 home - The Arse are all but written off, but as long as they have van Persie in the side, I feel they have some attacking potential. Silly Hair cut Gervinho could also click soon. From www.premierleague.com
After a difficult start to the season, Arsenal arrive at Old Trafford hoping to build on their victorious performance against Champions League opposition Udinese.
Wednesday's 2-1 away win ensured the Gunners' safe passage to the competition's group stage, and Arsene Wenger will be hoping the impressive second-half display will instil some confidence back in to the side who have lost star duo Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri and dropped five points already this season.
In a test of United's status as Barclays Premier League champions, Sir Alex Ferguson will doubtless be asking for more of the same after the 3-0 demolition of Spurs on Monday night.
Arsenal have not enjoyed a victory at Old Trafford since September 2006 and United have won 21 of their last 22 Barclays Premier League matches at home."
Darren Fletcher will return to Manchester United's squad for Sunday's Barclays Premier League showdown with Arsenal.
The Scotland skipper has struggled to shake off the effects of a virus he was struck down by in March but, after coming through his second 90-minute reserve-team outing last night against Swansea, has been drafted into manager Sir Alex Ferguson's plans.
Rio Ferdinand (hamstring) and Antonio Valencia (ankle) have been training, but Nemanja Vidic (calf) and Rafael (shoulder) are definitely out.
Arsenal trio Alex Song, Gervinho and Emmanuel Frimpong are suspended for the match.
Jack Wilshere saw a specialist but the club are still waiting for an update on his ankle injury which is expected to keep him out for three more weeks.
Nicklas Bendtner is sidelined with an ankle problem and Sebastien Squillaci is also out, along with Kieran Gibbs (hamstring) and Abou Diaby (ankle).
Defender Thomas Vermaelen will have a fitness test but is expected to be fit and Laurent Koscielny came through a similar check on his back problem on Friday morning.
Manchester United: De Gea, Lindegaard, Smalling, Ferdinand, Jones, Evra, Evans, Fabio, Nani, Park, Cleverley, Anderson, Carrick, Fletcher, Giggs, Young, Rooney, Berbatov, Welbeck, Diouf, Owen, Macheda.
Arsenal: Szczesny, Jenkinson, Djourou, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Sagna, Walcott, Arshavin, Rosicky, Ramsey, Traore, Van Persie, Lansbury, Fabianski, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Chamakh, Miquel, Miyaichi.
Gervinho missing today -a key position too. big miss for United in defense might be a way in for Walcott and Van Parsnips.
| 01.05.2011 | PR | Arsenal FC | 1-0 | Manchester United | |
| 12.03.2011 | Cup | Manchester United | 2-0 | Arsenal FC | |
| 13.12.2010 | PR | Manchester United | 1-0 | Arsenal FC | |
| 31.01.2010 | PR | Arsenal FC | 1-3 | Manchester United | |
| 29.08.2009 | PR | Manchester United | 2-1 | Arsenal FC | |
| 16.05.2009 | PR | Manchester United | 0-0 | Arsenal FC |
United have won 2 this season, scoring 5 and rooney has scored in both matches.
4pm - Odesa v Shakhtar - 1.21 away - Ukrainian top flight -research available at www.soccerway.com and www.futbol24.com - have a look 30 mins before the game if you want to get an angle in.
7pm - Zaragoza v Real Madrid - 1.3 away - I suspect Barca are not going to lose this season so this mirrors the SPL with both the big boys having MUST WINS in every single match. 4 points the difference between Barca and Real last season. Only 2 losses away last season against Barca and 9th , 3 0-0's and 13 wins away.
| 30.04.2011 | D1 | Real Madrid | 2-3 | Real Zaragoza | |
| 12.12.2010 | D1 | Real Zaragoza | 1-3 | Real Madrid | |
| 24.04.2010 | D1 | Real Zaragoza | 1-2 | Real Madrid | |
| 19.12.2009 | D1 | Real Madrid | 6-0 | Real Zaragoza |
830pm - Sp Lisbon v Maritimo - 1.51 home
| 24.01.2011 | D1 | CS Marítimo | 0-3 | Sporting Lisboa | |
| 22.08.2010 | D1 | Sporting Lisboa | 1-0 | CS Marítimo | |
| 26.03.2010 | D1 | CS Marítimo | 3-2 | Sporting Lisboa | |
| 01.11.2009 | D1 | Sporting Lisboa | 1-1 | CS Marítimo | |
| 16.05.2009 | D1 | CS Marítimo | 1-2 | Sporting Lisboa | |
| 10.01.2009 | D1 | Sporting Lisboa | 2-0 | CS Marítimo |
last 2 home head to heads have been tight. 2 draws so far for Sporting must end if they hope to be competitive.0-0 and 2-0 away loss for Maritimo.
Only 2 matches in and logic tells us it is not enough to make a concrete decision. From what we have, a tight match looks the call. Perhaps lay the draw if you think that Sporting MUST end that draw sequence which is leaking points.
33% over 2.5 goals at home for Sporting last season and 40% overs away last seasonfor Maritimo backs up this tightness.
220 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Double Cee, 3/1 Maastricht, 7/2 Naseem Alyasmeen, 7/1 Bapak Pintar, 14/1 Curtain Patch, 20/1 Dr Irv, 20/1 Last Zak.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This test is likely to suit MAASTRICHT better than those he faced at Musselburgh and Epsom last twice and he is preferred to Double Cee who made an encouraging debut at Haydock last month.[Adrian Cook]
Maastricht for Johnston has a good probability chance of placing.
255 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Jeu De Vivre, 7/1 Fossgate, 7/1 Gems, 7/1 Grey Command, 8/1 Bradbury, 12/1 Maybeme, 12/1 Motafarred, 14/1 Golden Future, 14/1 Green Lightning, 14/1 Saint Thomas, 14/1 Singzak, 20/1 Kames Park.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Bradbury and Grey Command are much better than they showed last time while the return to 1m4f will suit the rejuvenated Fossgate but preference is for the well-bred 3yo JEU DE VIVRE, who has been progressing steadily in middle-distance handicaps and likely still has more to offer.[Adrian Cook]
2/1 - - - -6/1 and another Johnston market leader.
245 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lightening Pearl, 7/2 An Ghalanta, 4/1 Boris Grigoriev, 6/1 Experience, 7/1 Captain Obvious, 8/1 Aaraas, 33/1 Lady Pastrana.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LIGHTENING PEARL brings much the best form into the race and is selected in the hope that she can produce it over this shorter trip. Aaraas shouldn't be underestimated on her return from a short break. [Kevin Blake]
An Ghalanta could be the value here , albeit only 2 places.
425 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Maybe, 3/1 La Collina, 8/1 Fire Lily, 10/1 Princess Sinead, 12/1 Rubina, 16/1 Teolane, 33/1 Coral Wave, 33/1 Soon, 100/1 Chieftess, 100/1 Criostal, 100/1 Miss Ellany.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAYBE has all the makings of an exceptional filly and while La Collina is a more than worthy adversary for her, the daughter of Galileo is selected to maintain her unbeaten record. [Kevin Blake]
2 under 10/1 here and Maybe should place for Ballydoyle. Will these 2 dominate? If so you get a better price about la Collina.
SHORTLIST
1245pm - St Mirren v Celtic - 1.42 away - only based on the must win factor. Like last year, it's Russian Roulette with Celtic. One result will get you , as happened at home last weekend. They cannot afford to lose 2 on the trot with Rangers at home today .1pm - OB v SonderjyskE- 1.5 home - somewhat put off by the drift. As I have written this blog, OB now 1.58. Injury news? I don't know. I would plump for a goals trade here if they can continue to score 2 goals .
1.25 over 1.5 goals.
115pm - Nottm Forest v West Ham - 2.8 for Forest and 2.78 for West Ham - they cannot be split in the match odds but I would back West Ham to score first and trade out. They have won 2 so far away from home.
3pm - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg - 1.38 home - a chance for a win to nil for Copenhagen today as they continue their consistent goal scoring.
3pm - Rangers v Aberdeen - 1.29 home - McCoist emphasis on defence so far has seen 3 consecutive away clean sheets and all wins. This could continue at home against an Aberdeen side who have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches this season.
330pm - PSV v Excelsior - 1.14 home - 1.31 over 2.5 goals involves both sides. This should be a comfortable home win by 4 ( speculative) -excelsior cannot win against top sides if last year is anything to go by.7pm - Zaragoza v Real Madrid - 1.3 away -all matches must wins for Real Madrid. Could be a sticky opener but with Benzema a far better player now than last year, the goal threat has increased for Madrid.
220 BEVERLEY - 1.47 for Maastricht tells us this is a tight handicap but is he worth a chance as this is a 6 horse race for 3 places. 4 under 10/1
425 CURRAGH - surely Maybe will continue an exceptional run. She is some filly! 1.1 to place and 1.42 to place for La Collina ( the value alternative)
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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