5/11

Well it was a risk as I mentioned backing Twist Magic at 1.56 - the price gave it away and guess what? The winner was a 16/1 system selection - 14/1 in the ebtting forecast and backed into 8/1 in a 9 runner field and a handicap.
BEtting systemns are interchangeable and again we have the problem of being non reactionary to changing circumstances because I have to come up with a selection without using the live market.

That said, this race then turned into a 5 runner event so was still a decent probability bet and ,yes, 3 of those 5 filled the first 3 places
130 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Hivikos, 9/2 Sagredo, 6/1 Unfurled, 7/1 Queen Fellow, 14/1 Secret Tune, 20/1 Friendly King, Horsham Lad, Lennox Gardens, Shali San, 25/1 Broughton Green, Carson´s Spirit, 33/1 Painter Man, 100/1 Gunner Rose, Junior Jimble, Peacefull Waters, Sweet World.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has high hopes for HIVIKOS and he's expected to win this en route to something a lot better. Sagredo could prove most troublesome

Another Nicholls hot pot and they performed well yesterday 2.22 / 1.33

350
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Pennellis, 11/2 Hey Big Spender, 7/1 Pause And Clause, 8/1 Buffalo Stampede, 10/1 Cashmere Ted, Gratification, Native Taipan, 14/1 Charingworth, The Boss Rock, 16/1 Cuckoo Pen, 33/1 Kadastorm, Lucky Eric, 50/1 Abitofargybargy, 100/1 Roseneath, Tarabela, Walls Way.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PENNELLIS wouldn't need to be anything special to make a winning debut for the all-conquering Paul Nicholls yard in this ordinary bumper. Of those with form, Pause And Clause appeals most

Guess what - another Nicholls hotpot! 2.62 / 1.46

140 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Cosmea, 7/1 Kahsabelle, 8/1 Sherbet Lemon, 10/1 Kashmina, 14/1 Kijivu, She Is A Cracker, 20/1 Farsighted, 25/1 Dagua Briza, Shipboard Romance, 28/1 Inontime, 33/1 Broughtons Flight, Lady Florence, 40/1 Great Future, Poppy Gregg, 66/1 Sonate De La Tour.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COSMEA (nap) created a favourable impression when winning at Wincanton and is difficult to oppose, with most of the hurdling debutantes looking inferior in terms of Flat ability and those with experience needing to improve plenty. Of the newcomers, Kahsabelle and She Is A Cracker are probably the most interesting

Significant price gap, but this is mirrored in the 4/9 price 1.45 / 1.11

250
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Divali Princess, 4/1 Ready To Crown, 11/2 Ashleys Petale, 14/1 Southern Exit, 16/1 Je Ne Sais Plus, Serengeti Sunset, 25/1 Coco L´Escargot, Storm Haven, 33/1 Court Princess, Line Artic, 50/1 Circus Rose.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ready To Crown made an encouraging debut over hurdles at Chepstow but DIVALI PRINCESS progressed nicely in bumpers last term, going close in a useful event at Aintree on her final start, and is taken to make a successful return

Thornton/King - always trustworthy 2.84 / 1.23 -ready to crown has been backed this early

155 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Silent Wonder, 3/1 Positivity, 4/1 Rare Art, 6/1 Diamond Surprise, 20/1 Genipabu, 25/1 Bold Bomber, Sarasota Sunshine, Theta Wave,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these have something to prove now, including Positivity, who has a solid chance on her Beverley third in July but has to prove she can handle ground this soft. Silent Wonder does handle heavy but his attitude has been called into question, so perhaps RARE ART is worth chancing back on soft after being disappointing on the AW last time

Heavy ground - 2 non runners and a fav who has come 2nd 4 out of last 5 races 2.1 / 1.13

340
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Little White Lie, 15/8 General Eliott, 100/30 Igor Protti, 7/1 Easy Target, 40/1 First Order, 100/1 Wannarock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: General Eliott is the class act and has run two smashing races since returning to action this autumn, yet conceding the weight to capable older horses \Igor Protti and LITTLE WHITE LIE (nap) may be beyond him. The selection is holding his form well and has won on heavy going

General Eliott a non runner - 6 into 5 runners - better chance for Little White Lie? Have to check 2 the place still, BUT heavy ground again 1.81 / 1.15 - 2 horses are 18.5 to place reducing the field to 3 hopefully who will be vying for the 2 places

SHORTLIST

I hate heavy ground races because they are unpredictable and can create a level playing field, but Little White Lie has won on heavy. The race is now 5 runners with 2 to place. 2 horses are priced 18.5 to place and I hope can be discounted. From a probability perspective this looks to be the race. I will check near the off too as I am writing this early morning