710 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Magic Mornings, 4/1 Spinone, 6/1 Imco Spirit, 8/1 Brazen Beauty, Smartest, 10/1 Conforming, Halcyon Princess, 14/1 Inishtearaght, 20/1 Miss Al Gunn, Saorocain, 25/1 Donnai, 33/1 Abundant Spirit, Bice, Blackwell Nation ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAGIC MORNINGS, runner-up in two of her three races over 7f at this venue, should be able to put her experience to good use. A possible reservation is based on the fact that this 6f trip could prove on the sharp side for her, since she was outpaced by newcomer, Andalacia, here two weeks ago, leaving an impression that she might benefit from going a bit further, rather than taking a step back in trip. However, she has the advantage of being well drawn, and this looks the weakest race that she has contested so far.\n Spinone is one of two runners for the venue's leading trainer Ger Lyons, and it looks significant that Pat Smullen rides this son of Proud Citizen, leaving Pat Shanahan to partner the Dermot Weld-trained debutante Brazen Beauty. Spinone is equipped with a tongue-tie.\n The other Lyons runner, Imco Spirit, shaped quite well here first time out in September, and appeared not to stay when tried over 1m in the maiden won by Sirgarfieldsobers on his second outing. |
For me Irish racing can be too inconclusive for me to look at the place only market, but if you remember the Irish Combos - Weld almost always has Smullen onboard, but on this occasion Smullen has opted for Spinone so this may be a clue in itself - market not fully formed at time of writing but 2.08 is good price (that's the price at the moment)
550 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 The Magic Of Rio, 5/2 Glamorous Spirit, Smokey Ryder, 12/1 Barnezet, 16/1 Imaginary Diva, Old Sarum, 33/1 Brown Lentic, Buddy Marvellous, Diamond Til, 50/1 Catman .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE MAGIC OF RIO is taken to overcome her wide draw at the expense of Smokey Ryder. Glamorous Spirit is the only other runner who makes any appeal. |
A probability race here? MAgic of Rio shortened but remember the race time! 2.56 / 1.23
920 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Back In The Red, 11/2 Blue Charm, 10/1 Littledodayno, Peopleton Brook, Polish World, Spoof Master, Thoughtsofstardom, 12/1 Mistress Cooper, 14/1 After The Show, Ever Cheerful, 20/1 Commander Wish, 33/1 Royal Acclamation .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not too many of these come here in top form. The exceptions are BACK IN THE RED and Blue Charm and, with Sylvester Kirk's runner drawn in stall one, preference is for the former, who looked a different animal in the first-time blinkers over C&D last time. His promising apprentice offsets the penalty incurred and he has the toe to get the inside rail from his middle draw. He'll go very close if the headgear works as well again. |
Price gapper here - now 2/1 in a poor quality race - would rather find a better quality price gapper - 3.1 / 1.64
120 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Special Reserve, 11/4 Blessing, 5/1 Spouk, 10/1 Roleplay, 14/1 Bantu, 16/1 Classic Dancer, Fashion Week, Resentful Angel, Yvonne Evelyn, 33/1 Rettorical Lad .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Were this decided purely on natural ability then it would be hard to get away from Special Reserve, who hasn't had much luck in recent starts and ran very well off a mark of 77 last time. The exaggerated waiting tactics are a response to him finding less than looked likely on more than one occasion though and he is reluctantly overlooked in favour of SPOUK. Luca Cumani's filly stepped up on her debut effort at Wolverhampton last time and almost certainly has more to come. |
Spouk is the mover here almost sharing favouratism with Special Reserve - and given the look of the race as a potential 3 horse race, this move looks worth following - 3.2 / 1.42 for Spouk
230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Invincible Heart, 3/1 Lexlenos, 5/1 Global, 8/1 Cognac Boy ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Invincible Heart sets the standard here but he isn't sure to appreciate the return to 7f and LEXLENOS, who was a rare winning newcomer for her trainer, is taken to improve past him now upped in distance. |
Lexlenos is 2/1 and this could be a 3 horse race but as we have seen this week, preference is for races with 3 the place rather than 2 the place 1.88 / 1.3 - 1.3 for both Invincible and Lexlenos
1210 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Little Shilling, 6/1 Glen Rouge, 7/1 Bonneta, 12/1 Hooky´s Hope, 14/1 Tigerific, 16/1 Description, Tara Queen, 20/1 Turbulent Flight, 25/1 Ceilidh Lass, King´s Envoy, Rocknest Island, 33/1 Art Investor, Cinaman, Montchara, Wild Wood, 50/1 Bayfirth .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is always the chance that one of the unexposed members of this field might crawl out of the woodwork but it is hard to look beyond LITTLE SHILLING in the light of his two recent wins |
Impressive last 2 runs but a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle -still Little SHilling is now odds on and there do not seem to be any market moves amongst the opposition
1.91 / 1.2
110 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Run To Space, 100/30 Bow School, 8/1 Ho Pang Yau, 10/1 Ajay, 14/1 Fine Parchment, Snow´s Ride, 20/1 Harcas, Industrial Star, Mick Finan, 25/1 Teviot Lass, The Ginger Man, 33/1 Bronze Dancer, Jupsala .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many appeal and this may be dominated by two ex-pointers. \Bow School hails from a yard in great form but preference is for RUN TO SPACE (nap), who should find conditions right up his street.[ |
3rd fav is 10/1 so this could be a 2 horse affair - 3.05 / 1.56 - whenever they breach the 1.5 it always puts me off
145 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Glencree, 2/1 Broadway Star, 11/2 Danzatrice, 9/1 Le Vert Galant, 12/1 Eagles Mist, 20/1 Jane Of Arc, Poseidon, 33/1 Dee Cee Bolter, Overthrow, 40/1 Dechiper, 50/1 Hurricane Jack, Muncaster Castle, Port Na Spaniagh, 66/1 Ashgrove Diamond, Persian Tonic .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Danzatrice is interesting, given her liking for the course, but hurdling experience may prevail here. Glencree has to be feared but BROADWAY STAR is entitled to go close on his initial effort over hurdles and is given the vote.[ |
top 2 are 7/4 and Poseidon a potential market mover
2.86/1.42
2.94/1.29
Interesting that Broadway star is currently shorter in the place only market and is 2nd fav!
100 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mount Helicon, 4/1 Art Trend, 10/1 Drum Major, Special Branch Ami, 12/1 Wise Hawk, Zen Factor, 16/1 Cossack Prince, 25/1 Nino Cochise, 50/1 Vertueux .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOUNT HELICON is some way ahead of this field on Flat performance and must be hard to beat if proving equally proficient over hurdles. Zen Factor may be the best each-way alternative.[ |
A probability race here but a few debutants -looks to concern the front 2 1.66 / 1.16
205 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ballydub, 7/1 Miko De Beauchene, 15/2 Ringaroses, 8/1 Galient, 14/1 Dan Buoy, Sarde, 16/1 Adroit Approach, Arrayou, Butler´s Cabin, Green Mile, Just Amazing, 20/1 Bertie May, 25/1 Don´t Push It, Pocket Aces, 33/1 Mossville, Openide, Super Lord, Temoin .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Miko De Beauchene found only a Philip Hobbs improver too good for him here a year ago and it could be the same story again with lightly raced BALLYDUB (nap) having shaped well behind classy Punchestowns on his reappearance and been lucky to have escaped the attentions of the handicapper |
Now 6/4 is a positive and 4 the place but an 18 runner handicap over the jumps 2.62 / 1.35 -3 miler race
240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kicks For Free, 15/8 The Market Man, 3/1 Ring The Boss, 8/1 Oh Crick .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ring The Boss's jumping left something to be desired at Wincanton and he could have difficulty matching KICKS FOR FREE - marginally best on official hurdles ratings - and The Market Man, both of whom have made a highly promising start to their chasing career |
Kicks is evens - looks like 3 to fight for 2 places here - another plus is this is a Nicholls horse and I do tend to make an exception of backing in 2 the place races over jumps if the fav is a Nicholls Horse or a King horse ridden by Thornton 2.06 / 1.41
A tempting price -this latter race - 1.41 to place for a horse to beat 2 to place and a Nicholls /Thomas horse
550 KEMPTON is a race I will return to given it is a probability race and I really need to see the market moves of the front 3 to determine who to place back
Mount Helicon represents Thornton and King - a killer combo when on a market leader and will be my choice today in the 1pm at Newbury
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