BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Pop Ahead, 4/1 Natoumba, 5/1 Jacarado, 8/1 Pharanto, 12/1 Breiz Dream´s, Himself Dreams On, Royal Hilarity, 14/1 Donald Will Do, 16/1 Charlottes Webb, Overton Lad, Sylvan Shack.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jacarado is at his best here and at Towcester and remains of interest but perhaps it's worth forgiving POP AHEAD his below-par show last time and gamble on his staying this new trip, as his Exeter third has been well advertised by his two conquerors |
Hint at a price gap to Breiz Dream's but this is 2 miles 7 furlongs, and a handicap chase. The markets are not formed yet either (as of 8am)
UPDATE - Briez's Dream now out to 10/1 but money for Royal Hilarity now 6/1 (12/1 betting forecast)
Pop Ahead stands at 11/4 and is not a confident choice to place given the nature of the race
400 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Arganil, 9/2 Luscivious, Matsunosuke, 7/1 Bertoliver, 8/1 Soopacal, 12/1 The Jobber, 14/1 Fyodor, Vhujon, 16/1 Harbour Blues, 20/1 Almaty Express.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Arganil will probably be a tough nut to crack again, whilst Luscivious has obvious claims if reproduing his recent Fibresand effort, but MATSUNOSUKE, well treated and likely to get the strong pace that suits, gets the vote despite his long losing run |
Another possible ?
UPDATE - move for the jobber at 17/2 now is interesting in a tight handicap - disconcerting to see Arganil at 3/1 though
As you can see these are not the kind of prominent price gapper that have normally appeared. I can't do anything if the races aren't there!
Will update later once the bookies have the early markets up and see if we can get a selection today
UPDATE - no bet day today for me with the above races. BAnkers and Bowouts in the raceing post feature Kalahari King in a 6 runner event with 3 at the head of the betting market
220 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Kalahari King, 5/2 Crocodiles Rock, Shatabdi, 14/1 Presentandcorrect, 16/1 Cape Greko, Iffy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shatabdi, in receipt of lumps of weight from her rivals taking into account her rider's allowance, has obvious prospects judged on official hurdles ratings but there has to be a doubt whether she will be equally effective over fences given her lack of stature. Crocodiles Rock should improve from Carlisle but trip and ground could favour KALAHARI KING (nap) more. Most of Ferdy Murphy's string have been needing their first run badly but while he bucked the trend at Kelso he can be expected to come on a good deal for the run. |
3 horses priced 20/1 or greater. This looks a simple 3 horse tussle, 2 of which will place - we can put forward an argment for probability betting if the prices are accurate - 2.28 and 1.41. IF he stays on his feet he only really needs to beat one main market rival to place - remember only 2 places here!
The other BAnker or Blowout is Dart in the 430 at Wolves
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Dart, 7/2 Inchpast, 6/1 Mohawk Star, 9/1 Urban Warrior, Victory Quest, 10/1 Into The Light, 12/1 Spiritonthemount, Squirtle, 14/1 Bank On Benny, Opera De Luna, 16/1 Pseudonym.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DART may again have too much speed for Inchpast in a race where there's again the possibility of a dawdle, with so many hold-up horses. Urban Warrior could improve for this trip, given his hurdle win over 2m5f |
Only 3 horses sub double figure odds in the live early market with Mohawk star and Victory Quest the drifters.
2 miles is a very tricky distance for me to guage to be honest. Dart currently 5/2 which is not your usual price gapper with which I chose these place only bets. A no bet for me this one
CONCLUSION
Kalahari King from a simple probability prespective represents a decent place bet at 1.42
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