24/11

All bar Kauto placed on Saturday. I did say only a fall would stop him placing and yes, he fell!

140 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Great Approach, 5/4 Quws Law, 12/1 Treasured Memories, 25/1 The Rede Mouse, 33/1 Silver Breese, 66/1 Athollbrose.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GREAT APPROACH and Quws Law stand out. Marginal preference is for the former, who doesn't have much to find with his main rival on hurdles form and remains the type that could be a better horse over fences anyway.[

2 horse race? Caution - only 2 places - and 3 miler
2.1/1.38
2.58/1.42

210 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Merrydown, 9/2 Crackerjack Lad, Lugato, 13/2 Lie Forrit, 10/1 Mr Woods, 12/1 All Out For Seven, Too Cool To Fool, 16/1 Chief Scout, 40/1 Lady Chatelaine, 50/1 Giant Star, 100/1 Hold On Julio.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Even taking into account his penalty MERRYDOWN (nap) looks the one to beat on what he's achieved in two runs over hurdles and that's even before considering he's open to further progress. Crackerjack Lad is one of the more interesting hurdling newcomers.[

Now operating at odds on in the early market which is a good sign 1.95 / 1.17

1230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lord Chancellor, 3/1 Sonning Gate, 4/1 Simon Gray, 9/2 Fortuni, 10/1 Rockson, 14/1 Leceile, 25/1 Great Bounder, 50/1 Dulce Domum, Eurotanz, 66/1 Ma Patrice, Top Tinker.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The stronger-looking of the two divisions. Lord Chancellor made an encouraging debut at Leicester and has to be feared with Jamie Spencer up, but SONNING GATE really caught the eye on his debut at Newbury and looks the sort to improve a good deal with that experience under his belt. Fortuni and Simon Gray are the others to consider.[

Sonning gate the mover here
2.76/1.29
3.15/1.38

200 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 River Kirov, 8/1 Eleanor Eloise, Hurricane Coast, Melt, Royal Manor, 12/1 Bidable, Charlie Allnut, Convivial Spirit, Ugenius, Upstairs, 16/1 Torquemada, 50/1 Dynamo Dave.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hurricane Coast is a danger if having one of his going days but RIVER KIROV (nap) seemed to have a bit up his sleeve when scoring here on Saturday and has been racing as though he won't be inconvenienced by this extra furlong.[

Now 15/8 and a good price gap - worries regarding the good form shown which will end soon - non runner

235 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Featherweight, 6/1 Haashed, 7/1 Formula, 8/1 Angelica´s Art, 10/1 Kattar, 14/1 Joannadarc, Windpfeil, 20/1 Green Endeavour, 33/1 Maison D´Or, 66/1 My Baby Love, Prima Fonteyn.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Featherweight sets a decent standard here and should go close under these conditions, but HAASHED is a well-bred newcomer and it could be worth chancing him on his debut

Haashed and Formula the movers here ( in response to Angelica's Art being a non runner?) Featherweight currently odds against which is a negative
2.88/1.27
3.8/1.52

A tricky day today, for instance, Featherweight's market is all over the place and it is a maiden for 2 year olds.
Merrydown would be a good selection I feel today - 4 horses are 66/1 or bigger bring down the competitive field - I am not confident about ground being good to soft - the Racing Post do tend to understate ground in my opinion which would be a concern if a horse under a penalty was running of ground which is softer than stated.

THe 140 Ayr is very interesting but who to chose? 1.38 tells us it's 2 to place. Now as long as the front 2 are there at the business end (Treasured memories is currently 9/1 but that could be because he is the only viable each way alternative) we are ok, but races like this tend to find one to split the 2 main market rivals. This is a 3 mile beginner chase - and the title tells us something! A 220 day absence for Great Approach is a worry too.

I have had a thought about the loss retrieval aspect if considering ,say, 1.43% a day as target . Now the stake on Kauto star to place to win target profit was only £10. Why not just transfer £10 to top the betting bank up instead of risking a higher percentage for loss retrieval? Given the high strike rate, transfering lost stake would only occur on a very few occasions and offer an opportunity to keep the bank moving forward without further risk?
This is the only alternative I see.