Tuesday 4 November 2008

4/11

Yesterday's selection won
CATTERICK - heavy ground = no bet

140 EXET
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 According To Dick, 7/1 Penharold, 8/1 Minella Theatre, Vodka Brook, 9/1 Qualypso D´Allier, 10/1 My Moment, 12/1 Award Winner, Moleskin, 14/1 Vasodilator, 16/1 Blue Monty, Vamizi, 20/1 Quiny Boy, 25/1 Opus Cafe, 40/1 I´Moncloudnine, 50/1 Alfatrix, 66/1 Ninety Nine Looks, Supplementary, 100/1 Bickwell .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of unexposed sorts and unknown quantities. The market should be particularly informative regarding the expectations of winning pointers Penharold and Qualypso D'Allier, but the verdict goes to ACCORDING TO DICK, who is quickly sent hurdling after his impressive bumper win at Cheltenham and can confirm himself a decent prospect

Now 10/11 but this is a big field and "plenty of unexposed sorts" 1.86 / 1.24

210 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mahonia, 5/1 Clova Island, 6/1 Medermit, South Wing, 12/1 Spanish Cruise, 16/1 Alasao, 20/1 Anthony´s Road, Santarctique, 25/1 Ballyveeney, 33/1 Knock Em Dead, 40/1 Glenda Hoddle .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Medermit is worth a precautionary check in the betting on his debut for Alan King, while Clova Island is an interesting runner on his first outing for Philip Hobbs, who has won this race three times in the past five years. However, MAHONIA showed useful form in bumpers last season and is probably the one to beat

Nicholls/Walsh combo is one of the reasons this horse is so short in the market - 5 horses are 20/1 or bigger which will make life easier 1.64 / 1.17

240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Twist Magic, 7/2 Mahogany Blaze, 5/1 Howle Hill, Natal, 14/1 Ashley Brook, Mister Quasimodo, 16/1 Roman Ark, 25/1 Bishop´s Bridge, 500/1 Pauntley Gofa .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race has been won by numerous high-class chasers down the years, even since it was changed to a limited handicap in 1996, and four of the last six winners carried top weight. TWIST MAGIC, who has a BHA mark of 170, is taken to enhance the record of top-quality horses, despite meeting stablemate Natal (who should be thereabouts again granted a decent pace) on worse terms than at Punchestown. Howle Hill shouldn't be far away, while Mahogany Blaze is the most appealing of those racing from out of the weights.

4 horses sub 14/1 make this a decent probability race BUT it is super competitive given the quality of the race type 3.4 / 1.56 - relays the competitive nature of this race

130 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Desert Strike, 9/2 Inconspicuous Miss, 13/2 Denton Diva, Rascal In The Mix, 12/1 Valdemar, 14/1 Duke´s Emerald, 16/1 River Style, 20/1 Why Nee Amy, 33/1 Meydan Style, 66/1 That Boy Ronaldo .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RASCAL IN THE MIX makes plenty of appeal on pedigree - his sire leads the first-crop table in the US and his fee will triple next year - and he can make a winning debut. Desert Strike is the form pick on his latest turf effort, whilst Inconspicuous Miss showed plenty of promise on her recent debut.

Not strong enough for me given the maiden race 2.44 \ 1.27

200 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Megalo Maniac, 7/1 Moorside Diamond, 9/1 Belinda Rose, Winged Farasi, 10/1 Autumn Charm, Stormin Heart, 14/1 Out Of India, Ten To The Dozen, 16/1 Bold Phoenix, Rocheport, Up The Chimney, 25/1 Betteras Bertie, 33/1 Doctor Delta, 50/1 Monte Cassino .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Megalo Maniac, unpenalised for his win last week and with three course wins to his name, has an obvious chance, but MOORSIDE DIAMOND looks much improved since the fitting of headgear, shaped as if this drop in trip would suit last time and should go close

An eyecatching price gap here but this is a class 6 0-50 handicap - these are really poor runners and cannot be trusted 2.48 / 1.28

SHORTLIST
I could take a risk on Twist Magic today in what looks a 4 horse race and 1.56 is a little bigger relatively speaking but I will chance given there are only 4 sub double figure odds

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

ASy Brook 14/1 into 8/1 and won!

Anonymous said...

BARCELONA half time full time at 1.4 as the loss retreival bet 335pm 4th Nov