225 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Snowy Morning, 7/2 Glenfinn Captain, 4/1 Clopf, 9/1 Light On The Broom, 10/1 Kill Devil Hill, One Cool Cookie, 12/1 Ballistraw.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SNOWY MORNING, last season's Grand National third, is the most accomplished chaser in the field and should get the new campaign off to a winning start. Though essentially a staying type, he is versatile and was good enough to win hurdle races over 2m2f and 2m4f last season. Going back in his career he has a decent record in running well when fresh, and his form and experience at Grade 1 level, notably his second behind Neptune Collonges at Punchestown on his final start last season, makes him the one to beat.\n |
Grand National 3rd of interest BUT only 2 the place and heavy ground 2.66 / 1.41 (price as at 1050am)
255 CLON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Pomme Tiepy, 7/2 Candy Girl, 13/2 Oscar Rebel, 8/1 Bohemian Lass, Rory´s Sister, 12/1 Leanne, 14/1 Contessa Messina, 20/1 Bella Mana Mou, Stonehouse, 25/1 Neighbours Wager, 33/1 Robertstown Rover.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POMME TIEPY (nap), one of two high-class mares in this field from the Willie Mullins' yard, gets the vote as the stable-selected. Two runs in France marked an unproductive end to what was otherwise a fine novice campaign for the five-year-old mare, whose sequence of four wins between December and February included Grade 2 events over 3m at Leopardstown and Navan. Though no match for Air Force One in a Grade 1 race at Punchestown, the ground had gone against her on that stage, and there is no doubt that she thrives on the conditions she gets here |
A well known and high class horse from last year - again we face heavy at Clonmel 2.08 / 1.26
Now backed into evens at 11am prices - 6 horses at 25/1 will hopefully run to their prices. Heavy ground is apparently what Pomme Tiepy thrives on. Interesting that Ruby Walsh is back in Ireland what with paul Nicholls having a few runners out in the UK. Is this significant of the fact Ruby fancies getting something out of this race?
920 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Incarnation, 3/1 Time To Play, 10/1 Mayfair´s Future, 33/1 Apocalypto, Kentavr´s Dream.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INCARNATION ought to be able to get off the mark at the first time of asking for her new yard in what is a very weak maiden |
Obvious one here - potential probability bet if the 2 outsiders can be discounted - only 2 the place here and the live market imperative given the race start 1.56 / 1.15 - 33/1 and 40/1 horses in this small field make this a 3 horse race for 2 places? Incarnation now hovering at 1/2 but there's hours til race start
1250 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Alonso De Guzman, 5/1 Epsom Salts, Mr Napoleon, 7/1 Mixing, Red Wine, 10/1 Can Can Star, Dubai Ace.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALONSO DE GUZMAN just got nailed at Great Leighs last time but, although 3lb higher, he makes plenty of appeal for a rider who scored on him at Haydock in the summer. He should enjoy the run of the race and is fancied to beat Epsom Salts. |
Noticeable price gap and a horse who is placing consistently - handicap for 0-75 horses - moderate affair and ,as I write (7am) no early prices are up to confirm the price gap - also only 2 to place again 2.76 / 1.60 This 1.60 is indicative of the fact that this is no gimme for Alonso, not even for the place! One non runner in Dubai Ace and a move for mr Napoleon.
350 LING
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Pivka, 7/1 Eastern Gift, Hessian, 10/1 My Shadow, 14/1 Haasem, Support Fund, Wavertree Warrior, 16/1 Networker, Pippbrook Gold, 20/1 Run For Ede´S, 33/1 Zafonical Storm.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The return to 1m and the step into handicaps shouldn't be a concern for PIVKA (nap), who is the one potential improver in this field. Wavertree Warrior has slipped to a decent mark and may be the chief threat returned to Polytrack |
Eyecatching price gap here - caution - handicap debutant 2.08 / 1.26 PIVKA remains at evens for the 11am prices and there are no market movers amongst the others
100 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Front Of House, 9/2 Zed Candy, 7/1 Smoke And Mirrors, 9/1 Sunsetten, 11/1 Kestrel Cross, 12/1 March Mate, 14/1 Nazdaq, Rising Force, 16/1 Alberts Story, Mac Halen, 20/1 Ballygowan Star, Baskerville, 50/1 Below The Deck, 66/1 Bailieborough, 100/1 Cnidos, 200/1 Bungie.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Zed Candy sets the standard from those with previous hurdling experience but FRONT OF HOUSE looked a fine prospect before his Punchestown failure and looks the one to be on assuming the market makes the right noises. |
Slight price gap but a novices hurdle - eyecatching to see McCoy riding for Henderson Now odds on is Front of House 1.74 / 1.21 -fancied and has the right man on board. Been consistent money for this one all day
Interestingly Kestrel Cross now 40/1 from 11/1 betting forecast. Worth a shilling each way incase the betting forecaster was more accurate
230 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Thursday´s Knight, 6/1 Castlemainevillage, 8/1 Ring Bo Ree, 11/1 Old Brigade, 12/1 Make It Blossom, Sashenka, 14/1 Friends Of Tina, Willies Way, 16/1 Ayurveda, 20/1 Aymard Des Fieffes, Bite Un Fight, Heezagrey, 25/1 Flying Jody, Gotcha Covered, 33/1 Born West, Milton Des Bieffes, 50/1 Dawn At Sea, 100/1 Ar An Shron.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THURSDAY'S KNIGHT (nap), who travelled better in blinkers when routing a moderate field last week, is miles ahead of the handicapper under his penalty. Castlemainevillage and Sashenka are best of the exposed rivals but market interest in handicap newcomers like Ring Bo Ree or Old Brigade or Irish raider Make It Blossom would be worth noting. |
You may remember Thursday Knight as a bet from a few days ago - "miles ahead of the handicapper?" - reason for the price gap - handicap hurdle - ground may threaten to soften between now and race off time - 2 miles 5 is a long distance - BUT 18 runners welcomes 4 to place
2nd fav a non runner but a big move for Ring bo Bee to 7/2 ( a reaction?) Thurday's Knight is now trading at odds on in the bookies early market 1.92 / 1.22
240 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Thundering Star, 7/2 Hot Diamond, 5/1 Humble Opinion, 11/2 Right Stuff, 14/1 Shali San, 16/1 Right Option, 20/1 Desert Storm, Obrigado, Santarctique, 25/1 Mceldowney, 33/1 Full Victory, 50/1 Forest Lodge, Prince Ducal.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hot Diamond sets the standard on hurdle form, but he may have to settle for minor money behind high-class Flat recruit THUNDERING STAR, who should be well prepared by his top trainer for this hurdling introduction. |
Guess what! Another Nicholls horse inserted as fav - Ruby in IReland today though so Sam Thomas up 2.46 / 1.27 Hot Diamond now 2/1 in a race with 2 big priced non runners - live market indicates a 4 horse race here so the chance of a probability bet Hot Diamond 3/1.26 is on a par to place with the fav and is of interest
340
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 The Venetian, 9/2 Iris´s Prince, 11/2 Flight Command, 7/1 Meggie´s Beau, 12/1 Classic Clover, Wizard Of Edge, 14/1 Mighty Moose, 16/1 Alcatras, 25/1 Walton Way, 33/1 Celtic Son, 40/1 Primrose Park, The Walnut Tree.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE VENETIAN has to shoulder a big weight and is unlikely to get his own way in front, but the manner of last week's Chepstow win suggests he is one to keep on the right side. Meggie's Beau looks best of the rest. |
Price gapper but BIG WEIGHT and 2 miles and 7 furlongs 3.8 / 1.58 Out to 11/4 and been on the drift on BEtfair ( looks a potential lay to back in running given the 2 miles 7 furlong distance and close proximity of others in the market - not a place bet for me at all
SHORTLIST
Pivka and Thursday's Knight may be the ones - I will return to the blog a bit later on to look at the live market and determine my decision
UPDATE - Front of House, Incarnation and a chance on Hot Diamond to place given the market move
Hope my target comes on the 1st raced horse
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