ASCOT
Some high class jumps action at Ascot - will the price gappers therefore be more reliable?
1255 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mad Max, 4/1 Karabak, 9/1 Dover´s Hill, 10/1 The Treacle Eater, 14/1 Ballinderry Park, 16/1 Waldo Pepper, 20/1 Bright Spirit, Local Present, 33/1 Blue Teal.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably best to concentrate on the hurdling debutants MAD MAX and Karabak, with ready preference for Mad Max who had to be withdrawn after hitting his head in the saddling box here three weeks ago. One of the best of last season's bumper horses, he has a good opportunity for him to make a successful start to his hurdling career |
Interesting when Barry Geraghty makes the journey across the pond - now 1/2 1.49 / 1.12
Price gap evident between first 2 and rest of the field - with my real favourites Thornton and King on the 2nd fav
130
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Massini´s Maguire, 4/1 Masked Man, 9/2 Slash And Burn, 5/1 Poker De Sivola, 8/1 Hill Forts Timmy, 16/1 Space Mission, 20/1 Present Glory, 200/1 Rathcannon Man.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This revolves around the wellbeing and first-time-out jumping skills of MASSINI'S MAGUIRE, whose winning form at the 2007 Cheltenham Festival is well clear of anything that has been achieved by today's opposition. Slash And Burn and Poker De Sivola completed satisfactorily ove fences at this track three weeks ago and have another good chance to get in the money. Masked Man came a cropper at Stratford but he is nevertheless probably the most likely to take advantage if Massini's Maguire fails to match expectations |
Ideal race type for place backers - 8 runners mean 3 to place and Rathcannon Man can I hope be discarded as can perhaps Space Mission and Present Glory ( the live market will confirm this)
AS things stand this has the look of a 5 horse race with 5 under double figure odds and only 3 will place - Space Mission now 10/1 and the fav out to 13/8 in a comparitvely tight betting market
2.56 / 1.37 - 2 miles 5 furlongs
205
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHOREACRES and Dee Ee Williams look the pick of some good prospects in a fascinating race, the latter possessing stacks of potential whereas the selection has already proved that he's good, albeit without any hurdles to negotiate, when fourth in the Champion Bumper |
Too competitive this for me to really be strong on the favourite - Dee Ee Williams has won well as has BAkbenscher ( a recent price gapper) -live market imperative - 3/1 the field -very tight market and not a race I would entertain 4.1 / 1.65
105 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fistral Beach, 9/4 Belcantista, 8/1 Hey Big Spender, Winged D´Argent, 16/1 Ayemdee, Swainson, 25/1 Alfatrix, Tago Mago, 33/1 Manmoon, Shenanigan, 40/1 Lady Of Lorne, 50/1 Bukhara, 100/1 Custers Last Stand, Flag Flier, He Be Cornish, How Are You Going, Whenallelsefails,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It will probably pay to concentrate on BELCANTISTA (nap) and Fistral Beach. Paul Nicholls believes Fistral Beach will make his mark as a chaser in the long run and at this stage he could have trouble matching strides with Belcantista who has plenty of solid form to his name, both on the Flat and over hurdles |
18 runner novices hurdle in soft is not ideal - 2 prominent market leaders but the live market again imperative incase there is money for any of the other 16
Nicholls of course leads another market! 1.25 to place first 2 horses
140
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Wichita Lineman, 5/4 Lodge Lane, 10/1 Pancake, 12/1 Theatre Dance, 25/1 Alfasonic, 33/1 Spin The Gin, 100/1 Rock Captain, Wasntme.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This revolves around Wichita Lineman and LODGE LANE. The former has 3lb in hand on official hurdles ratings but fell some way short of that level when tackling fences for the first time at Chepstow and could be vulnerable to Lodge Lane's turn of foot if the latter comes up to his trainer's high expectations on his chasing debut |
8 runners - 2 standouts and at least 3 perceived outsiders - ideal betting medium for place only betting. 11/8 the field with slight move for Pancake - 1.22 and 1.24 to place BUT this is a 3 mile novices chase
1245 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Signalman, 11/2 Elzahann, 7/1 Bajan Parkes, Blacks Bridge, 10/1 Always Best, 14/1 Bracken Lad, Sirkeel, Solis, 20/1 Brian´s Journey, Dark Gentleman, Paradise Walk, 25/1 Marieschi, 33/1 Executive Xpress, 66/1 Black Tom Tyrant, Bollin Fiona, 100/1 Oscar Wild.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With question marks over several of these, this is best left to Flat winner SIGNALMAN, who handles soft ground and shaped well on his hurdle debut at Newcastle a week ago |
prominent price gap in a novice hurdles event where form is not forthcoming meaning again live market consultation imperative 1.36 to place - no market moves amongst the other horses
150
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Naiad Du Misselot, 5/2 Palomar, 10/1 Quicuyo, 14/1 Lord Samposin, 20/1 Bob´s Dream, The Shy Man, 33/1 Verstone, Watch The Wind, 66/1 More Shennanigans.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Palomar is an interesting recruit to chasing but the one to beat is NAIAD DU MISSELOT, a very useful hurdler who shaped with plenty of promise on his chasing debut at Haydock. Although this trip is on the sharp side, he's capable of a fair bit better in this sphere. |
Beginners chase says it all but has the look of a probability race 1.16 and 1.31 for the front 2
750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ucantmissme, 3/1 Monsieur Fillioux, 9/2 Inconspicuous Miss, 7/1 Ajara, 16/1 Special Adviser, 20/1 Minibuzz, Watch The Master, Witch Of The Wave, 25/1 Missed Mondays, 33/1 Short Sharp Shock, Trick Or Two, Why Nee Amy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind newcomers Monsieur Fillioux or Ajara would be significant, but a safer option looks to be UCANTMISSME, who's produced more than enough on Polytrack to recommend for a race like this |
Class 6 maiden -poor grade stuff - 4 horses sub 16/1 in the betting forecast - fav now 5/6 1.93 / 1.16
ONE A DAY
A tricky day today with shorties in big fields and shorties in races where they are either beginners or novices!
140 EXETER interests me -but who to chose - Wichita or Lodge Lane - the former has McCoy on board ,has had a recent run and is a distance winner - the latter is highly thought of by the trainer, is a course and distance winner but is coming on the back of a 200+ day absence - 3 miles and soft ground BUT both are distance winners. Lodge Lane would be my selection here.
150 KELSO - naiad de Missolot another who has 2 ticks for the ground
1255 ASCOT - Mad MAx of interest under Barry Geraghty ,and backed into 1/2
I will chance Mad Max here
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