30/11

Quickbeam unplaced yesterday in the probability race - one of those things - they are horses after all
140 fairy house
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tranquil Sea, 11/4 Trafford Lad, 7/2 Forpadydeplasterer, 13/2 Northern Alliance, 12/1 Casey Jones, 16/1 Rare Bob, 20/1 Golden Silver, 33/1 Ballyholland .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRANQUIL SEA (nap) stamped his presence on the novice hurdling scene at its close and is preferred to Trafford Lad and Forpadydeplasterer in what should be a highly informative contest.

Soft ground a concern after a morning inspection - has the look of a 4 horse race - Forpadydeplasterer is a name I am familiar with - could be between the front 3 For pady is 1.63 to place and Tranquil sea is 1.35 - these prices reflect the fact this is not a given


210 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Time To Play, 9/4 Sir Ike, 4/1 Russian Angel, 6/1 Kara Tau, 8/1 L´Hirondelle, 20/1 Sestet, 33/1 Flying Free, 50/1 Little Rococoa .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Russian Angel showed promise in a Polytrack bumper and is respected, while Time To Play is another for the shortlist. SIR IKE has done enough to think he could win a weak event though and is taken to prove too strong.

Another probability race perhaps BUT I don't like the possible move on Sestet and the fact Kara Tua has doubled in price - for some reason in maidens this is not necessarily a bad thing! 2.58 / 1.26

1245 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lake Legend, 3/1 Noble Aran, 6/1 Helpston, Quintus, 12/1 Portside, 14/1 Rock Salmon, 20/1 Get Off The Table, 40/1 All For A Star, 66/1 Sun God .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LAKE LEGEND looks the one to beat on his Huntingdon success, assuming he'll be just as effective back on forecast soft ground (his useful sister My Petra has form under easy conditions). Noble Aran is quite interesting on his hurdling debut and is feared most.

King /Thornton on another market leader - ? over ground -now odds on with Noble Aran at 29/10 1.85 / 1.12

115 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Brook No Argument, 9/4 Fit To Drive, 5/1 Tarabaloo, 7/1 Figurita ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fit To Drive is the only runner with experience over fences but will need to raise her game a bit to see off BROOK NO ARGUMENT who was rated a stone her superior over hurdles

I do like Brook no argument but as we saw yesterday only 2 places leaves us vulnerable to any errors -chase debutantand200+day absence to overcome but a solid horse in a race where all 4 are priced to be competitive 1.87 / 1.27

2 choices with yesterday's unplaced - take the hit which for me was about £10 or try to retrieve -with the latter today's selections do not have the feel of rock solid selections.

I cannot see Brook no argument not being involved and at 1.27 the stake to JUST win back the tenner is £39
Alternatively, if writing off the tenner (topup the account with a £10 transfer, the stake is a mere £6 or so to hit targets)

1.35 is reasonable for Tranquil Sea but the more adventurous could go 1.63 Pady

Thornton/King at 1.12 looks priced to be competitive in unknown groundand I will go with the earliest of these selections (lake legend ) to win JUST target profit only NOT loss retrieval which will wait for a better priced selection