10/11

Thank God for a bit of thievery - updated the blog at 1250 after I noticed 2nd and 3rd favs in the 310 were non runners so this looked like a great loss retrieval bet instead of the football bets which did not allow for monitoring your position in running

Another probability bet here

I'm writing this blog at 630am so cannot see the live market or any races where non rnners might make our lives easier as place backers

CARLISLE - soft ground
155
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Faasel, 3/1 Tot O´Whiskey, 5/1 Crozan, 7/1 Rimsky, 20/1 Le Toscan, 25/1 Silent Bay,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Faasel ought to be the pick of the weights and the stable's new retained jockey may well get the best out of him, but it could be worth siding with TOT O'WHISKEY, who looks to have more improvement to come over fences.

I've been with Tot o Whiskey the last twice now but remember this is sub 8 runner so only 2 the place
2.36 / 1.4
3.2/1.62

225
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Marleybow, 5/2 Iwillrememberyou, 4/1 Skippers Brig, 11/2 Andrew Nick, 10/1 Young Albert, 16/1 Ajay, 33/1 Mitchel Henry, Sierra Victor, 50/1 Waterski, 66/1 Tully Hill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Skippers Brig is one to monitor in the betting, while Marleybow is open to progress assuming he will handle the conditions, but the vote goes to IWILLREMEMBERYOU who is the highest rated of these over hurdles and will relish the testing ground.

Ominous description " testing ground" so we have to be very wary - looks a good probability bet here with at least 5 in contention if they rn to their prices and 2 miles 5 in "testing ground"

245 SOUTHWELl
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mozayada, 6/1 Zeffirelli, 8/1 Comrade Cotton, Mambo Sun, 10/1 Carefree, 12/1 Abbeygate, Boppys Pride, 14/1 Barataria, Bert´s Memory, 16/1 Spume, 20/1 Classical Rhythm, 25/1 Dark Champion, 33/1 Rosies Dawn, So Sublime.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOZAYADA (nap) has a strong chance on her front-running second from 10lb out of the handicap over C&D last time. The main dangers are Zeffirelli and Comrade Cotton, and the one to watch in the market is Mambo Sun, who returns from a long absence.

Nice price gap here and ground not a concern as it is the all weather - no early price market to guage opinion 2.2 / 1.45

205 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Albertine Rose, 6/1 All Spin, 8/1 Choisharp, 10/1 Freepressionist, Trick Or Two, 14/1 Bartica, 20/1 Patronne, 25/1 Jolly Ranch, 33/1 Captain Carey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from ALBERTINE ROSE who sets the standard on her seconds over C&D and at Windsor, let alone her seemingly much-improved effort at Newmarket last time

Nice price gap but let's put it into context - 9 runenr maiden with 4 debutants who could be anything and live market a prerequisite here. In the market leader's favour is the fact the horse has had a lot of races = experience for a 2 year old albeit only 1 run on the all weather 1.56 / 1.14

235
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Isabelonabicycle, 3/1 Azabu Juban, 11/2 Templetuohy Max, 12/1 Orkney, 14/1 Crimsonwing, 16/1 Amwell House, 20/1 John Potts, 100/1 Little Rococoa.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak maiden in which ISABELONABICYCLE can make it third time lucky. Azabu Juban and Templetuohy Max can fight out the runner-up spot.

Straight 8 is ideal for place only backers as this is the smallest field which pays 3 the place
Nice price gap between the first 3 and the rest of the field and a fav who has experience. Again the betting market is important here ( as opposed to the betting forecast which is merely opinion) 1.86 / 1.13

305
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Smalljohn, 5/1 Woolston Ferry, 6/1 Dougie Peel, 7/1 She´s A Shaw Thing, 10/1 Skruton, 12/1 Polly´s Choice, 14/1 Island Chief, 16/1 Invincible Brave, 20/1 Accomplishment, Raise All In, 33/1 Beamon, Hint Of Honey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Doubts about She's A Shaw Thing being able to justify her current BHA rating, which is the highest of these, and this can go to SMALLJOHN who has three wins and two seconds from five tries in plating company to his name and thrashed the opposition over C&D on his debut for Bryan Smart last week. Woolston Ferry is feared most.

Another price gapper in a claimer here - no early markets as yet 2.62 / 1.31

I am really writing this "blind" in the sense that there are no betting markets for me to guage confidence or otherwise.
As things stand, Isabelonabicycle is of interest given the make up of the betting forecast and the noticeable gap between the first 3 and the rest of the field.

I must reiterate that the live betting market must always be consulted with maiden races and the prices quoted from Betfair are as of 645am