Tuesday, 18 November 2008

18/11

Kalahari King won another probability bet, and the 2 horses mentioned as potential market movers came neck 2nd at 16/1 and 3rd at 10/1

130 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 No Greater Love, 5/2 Silvergino, 9/2 Beau Torero, 14/1 The Iron Giant, 16/1 Laconicos, 20/1 Peak Seasons, 25/1 Silvo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A lot is going to depend on the ground as No Greater Love wouldn't want much give underfoot. Silvergino finally got it together for his new yard at Southwell last time but this will be more competitive and it might be worth giving course specialist BEAU TORRERO another chance

Potential probability bet here with only 3 sub 14/1 - only 2 the place 2.76 / 1.62 belies the fact that this is tight at the head of the market


1240 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Woolfall Treasure, 9/4 Karky Schultz, 8/1 Pic White, 25/1 Harveys Spirit, 33/1 Capeleira, Hawkstar Express.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive affair and WOOLFALL TREASURE, although hardly bombproof, is likely to prove hard to beat with main rival Karky Schultz's stamina a concern over an extra BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Medermit, 4/1 Quazy De Joie, 10/1 Uncle Eli, 14/1 Ballygowan Star, 16/1 Massini Moon, 20/1 Buffalo Bob, 25/1 National Petition, Sweet Robinia, 66/1 Evening Class, Optimum Asset, 100/1 Achieved, Feel The Force.

1.24 / 1.13 - the 4/6 has been battered into 1/3 which is a very good sign


110 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Medermit, 4/1 Quazy De Joie, 10/1 Uncle Eli, 14/1 Ballygowan Star, 16/1 Massini Moon, 20/1 Buffalo Bob, 25/1 National Petition, Sweet Robinia, 66/1 Evening Class, Optimum Asset, 100/1 Achieved, Feel The Force.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be improvement to come from Quazy De Joie and Ballygowan Star, while blinkers may revive Uncle Eli, but this is an obvious opportunity for MEDERMIT who should find this easier than against a good prospect at Exeter on his British debut. Quazy De Joie should represent the best each-way alternative if the odds permit

Another Thornton/King short price favourite and these have been placing regularly and winning often 1.74 / 1.18

210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Spring Dream, 9/2 High Life, 7/1 Topflight Wildbird, Treaty Flyer, 12/1 Figurita, 14/1 Serhaaphim, 20/1 Carly Bay, Just Beware, 25/1 Backlash, Pomander.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPRING DREAM has improved on the Flat since she last ran over hurdles and ought to have plenty going for her at this level. Topflight Wildbird is an interesting rival but the ground might well be slower than ideal.

As above! 1.88 / 1.31

1250 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Shadow Bay, 7/2 Iorek Byrnison, 9/2 Island Chief, 11/2 Becky Blue, 12/1 Spiritual Bond, 16/1 Clodazone, 25/1 Barbeito, That Boy Ronaldo, 50/1 Miss Xu Xia, 100/1 Angelsbemine, 200/1 Moon Warrior.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHADOW BAY is probably best forgiven his latest effort and he looks the pick on several previous runs. Becky Blue showed definite signs of ability when backed on debut and looks the most interesting alternative

A 10 runner 2 year old seller - YUK! 4 horses 40/1 or bigger can hopefully be discounted
With Becky Blue out, this looks to concern 3 below double figure odds 2.06 / 1.25

ONE A DAY - Woolfall treasure's move into 1/3 looks significant and 1.13 the place is generous given only 2 to place

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