Sunday, 30 November 2008

1/12

Yesterday's selection Brook no argument placed well
Making a shortlist now incase the Racingpost.co.uk changes with the new month to the bad racingpost.com

FAKENHAM
120
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Afsoun, 13/8 Kings Quay, 25/1 Silvo, 66/1 Boscall Hill, Peak Seasons.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Afsoun was well ahead of KINGS QUAY over hurdles but there were signs at Warwick that he may lack the bottle for chasing and, given a tendency to hit flat spots in his races, this track might not be tailor-made for him. John Quinn's charge, on the other hand, has done all his winning over jumps on sharp tracks and, if taking to the challenge, is not without hope of surprising the favourite.[

3 clear outsiders and a 2 horse race - barring accidents the front 2 should fill the places - prices remain as is in the earely market with a move for Silvo to 18/1 -probably each way thievery 1.14 place / 1.48 win

150
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Little Shilling, 5/1 Orchard House, 8/1 Blueland, 10/1 Goscar Rock, 14/1 Nessen Dorma, 16/1 The Iron Giant, 20/1 Supa Tramp, 25/1 Little Task, 33/1 Riccardo, The Masters Lesson.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Today's softer ground is a slight issue but LITTLE SHILLING still looks very well handicapped and there's no great temptation to take him on

On a 4 timer on soft ground - will he place again? 2nd and 3rd are non runners making Little Shillings job a lot easier 1.36 / 1.09

250
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Freeze The Flame, 4/1 Spare Me, 7/1 Pairc Na Gcapall, 15/2 Iron Hague, 33/1 Finnegans Rainbow.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The 'bounce' factor rears its ugly head second time out after a long break but FREEZE THE FLAME showed enough at Kempton to suggest all of his old ability remains and, if running his race, should have too much class for these. Pairc Na Gcapall may offer the most resistance

Beginners chase here and only 2 the place - liver market tomorrow imperative -again as is in the live market 1.68 / 1.24

320
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Friendly King, 5/2 Lord Brunello, Nordwind, 14/1 Dance Island, 20/1 Call Me Alfie, Dark Planet, Ramvaswani, 25/1 Marlyn Ridge, 100/1 Alloro, Ashover Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The ground will help but this still might not be a sufficient test of stamina for Lord Brunello and FRIENDLY KING looks the one to be on after running so well at Warwick. Nordwind may prefer better conditions

3 are sub 14/1 bt I need to see the ground conditions tomorrow incase they worsen from soft - Nordwind the market mover here which interests but Dance Island And Ramvaswani are significant early market movers 3.5 / 1.38

FOLKSTONE
100
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Just Poppytee, 13/8 Portrait Royale, 7/2 Don´t Be Bleu, 12/1 Miss Doublet.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Portrait Royale looked the likely winner when falling on her chase debut at Lingfield last month and should go close if avoiding errors, but marginal preference is for JUST POPPYTEE who has heavily backed and travelling enthusiastically in front when coming down at Plumpton last time.[

2 vying for 2 places? BUT soft and 3 miler - don't be bleu the market mover 1.59 place

130
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Awesome George, 7/4 The Old Pretender, 5/2 Martys Mission, 66/1 Achieved, Optimum Asset.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Martys Mission was not disgraced behind the very useful Diamond Harry last time and has to be respected, but AWESOME GEORGE took a major step forward winning in similar conditions last time and may be more progressive. The one to watch closely in the market is The Old Pretender who showed smart form in bumpers and makes his hurdle debut after nine months off


3 vying for 2 places again -heavy ground on the hrdle course means caution required - the old pretender has kept his price - Awsome George is the Thornton/King horse

1.45 / 1.48

200

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Spanchil Hill, 7/2 Elliott, 7/1 Enroblim Trop, 11/1 Lutin Collonges, 12/1 Auburn Grey, 14/1 No Telling, 25/1 Rock Captain, 33/1 National Diploma.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With three of his rivals out of the weights and a few others with questions to answer, SPANCHIL HILL (nap) should be hard to beat in his hat-trick bid and he can add to his trainer‘s excellent record at this track. The main danger is Elliott.


3 sub double figure odds Enroblim Trop the market mover with Rock Captain significant too 6.2 / 2.1

Looks a very difficult day today with soft and heavy ground at the 2 jumps courses. Consult live markets tomorrow for a clearer indication

Chance on Little Shilling in the win market at 1.38? _Place is quite obviously preferred but a far worse price


30/11

Quickbeam unplaced yesterday in the probability race - one of those things - they are horses after all
140 fairy house
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tranquil Sea, 11/4 Trafford Lad, 7/2 Forpadydeplasterer, 13/2 Northern Alliance, 12/1 Casey Jones, 16/1 Rare Bob, 20/1 Golden Silver, 33/1 Ballyholland .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRANQUIL SEA (nap) stamped his presence on the novice hurdling scene at its close and is preferred to Trafford Lad and Forpadydeplasterer in what should be a highly informative contest.

Soft ground a concern after a morning inspection - has the look of a 4 horse race - Forpadydeplasterer is a name I am familiar with - could be between the front 3 For pady is 1.63 to place and Tranquil sea is 1.35 - these prices reflect the fact this is not a given


210 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Time To Play, 9/4 Sir Ike, 4/1 Russian Angel, 6/1 Kara Tau, 8/1 L´Hirondelle, 20/1 Sestet, 33/1 Flying Free, 50/1 Little Rococoa .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Russian Angel showed promise in a Polytrack bumper and is respected, while Time To Play is another for the shortlist. SIR IKE has done enough to think he could win a weak event though and is taken to prove too strong.

Another probability race perhaps BUT I don't like the possible move on Sestet and the fact Kara Tua has doubled in price - for some reason in maidens this is not necessarily a bad thing! 2.58 / 1.26

1245 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lake Legend, 3/1 Noble Aran, 6/1 Helpston, Quintus, 12/1 Portside, 14/1 Rock Salmon, 20/1 Get Off The Table, 40/1 All For A Star, 66/1 Sun God .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LAKE LEGEND looks the one to beat on his Huntingdon success, assuming he'll be just as effective back on forecast soft ground (his useful sister My Petra has form under easy conditions). Noble Aran is quite interesting on his hurdling debut and is feared most.

King /Thornton on another market leader - ? over ground -now odds on with Noble Aran at 29/10 1.85 / 1.12

115 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Brook No Argument, 9/4 Fit To Drive, 5/1 Tarabaloo, 7/1 Figurita ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fit To Drive is the only runner with experience over fences but will need to raise her game a bit to see off BROOK NO ARGUMENT who was rated a stone her superior over hurdles

I do like Brook no argument but as we saw yesterday only 2 places leaves us vulnerable to any errors -chase debutantand200+day absence to overcome but a solid horse in a race where all 4 are priced to be competitive 1.87 / 1.27

2 choices with yesterday's unplaced - take the hit which for me was about £10 or try to retrieve -with the latter today's selections do not have the feel of rock solid selections.

I cannot see Brook no argument not being involved and at 1.27 the stake to JUST win back the tenner is £39
Alternatively, if writing off the tenner (topup the account with a £10 transfer, the stake is a mere £6 or so to hit targets)

1.35 is reasonable for Tranquil Sea but the more adventurous could go 1.63 Pady

Thornton/King at 1.12 looks priced to be competitive in unknown groundand I will go with the earliest of these selections (lake legend ) to win JUST target profit only NOT loss retrieval which will wait for a better priced selection

Saturday, 29 November 2008

29/11

Nice place yesterday - 2nd in a photo finish but that's all I wanted! Very happy with my analysis of Spinone - Pat Smullen obviously knew something as he ditched his employer Dermot WEld's horse and gave s a nice 6/1 winner!
I can envision problems if having to use www.racingpost.com from 1st December because there are no view all races on one page feature meaning you have to bring up each individual race-this is going to prove difficult for me and my only hope is that www.racingpost.co.uk survives in the interim so just to prewarn you

1225 NEWBRY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 American Trilogy, 3/1 Cockney Trucker, 9/2 Peppertree Lane, 15/2 Moves Goodenough, 14/1 Norman The Great, Roulez Cool, 16/1 Unfurled, 20/1 Benfleet Boy, Gremlin, 40/1 Brave Quest, 50/1 Lord Oroko, Spanish Cruise.

Again Nicholls heads the market here in what can be viewed as a 5 horse race (Norman the Great represents King/Thornton )

Cockney trucker is the mover here into 6/4 and may have to be heeded 2.46 \ 1.37

135 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Petit Robin, 11/2 Predateur, 7/1 Sou´Wester, 9/1 Its Crucial, 12/1 Bleu Superbe, King Louis, The Wicketkeeper, 14/1 Saintsaire, 16/1 Arumun, 20/1 Brave Villa, 25/1 Oneway .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: He's been off the track for almost a year but PETIT ROBIN (nap) looked very promising when winning here on that second hurdles start and he had even better form over fences in France. This could be an excellent opportunity, with most of the rest having questions to answer. The chief threats could be Sou'wester and King Louis.[

Price gap here- but a long absence - now a shade of odds on is encouraging and the right man on board. Watch out for BRave Villa -now 14/1 in places may be a 16/1 system bet and worth a shilling or 2 each way 1.99/ 1.3

205 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Inglis Drever, 7/2 Blazing Bailey, 11/2 Pettifour, 6/1 Duc De Regniere, 8/1 Mobaasher, 16/1 Labelthou, 25/1 Hills Of Aran, Whatuthink, 500/1 Sterling Moll .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pettifour has rapidly battled his way through the ranks in this division but there is no getting away from the fact that INGLIS DREVER has usually performed to a markedly higher level in his fantastic career and all here depends on whether the reigning champion can resume in the same vein. It is an encouragement that he was better than ever last season. Duc De Regniere is on the up again now that he has been put back to hurdles and is an interesting prospect over 3m for the first time.

Exciting to see Inglis Drever back BUT chosen as a Scoop 6 race tells us the bookies think this is a difficult one to solve
Has the look of a 5 horse race and the market has remained quite static -still looks a decent place only opportunity but as seen with Kauto Star NOTHING is a given over the jumps 2.82 / 1.42

1220 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Charmaine Wood, 9/2 Flutter Bye, 6/1 White Moss, 10/1 Overdante, 12/1 Happy Fleet, Present Climate, Sisterhood, 14/1 Snake Skin, 20/1 Somerset Rose, 25/1 Coral Shores, 50/1 Bitesize, 100/1 Simplyirresistible .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Flutter Bye, bred to make a jumper, can leave her moderate bumper form behind now she goes hurdling but may find b\CHARMAINE WOOD (nap), who sets a fair standard on the form of her C&D win, too good this time.

Towcester and soft ground do not appeal to me as a betting medium given the killer hill but the fav here hints at a price gap and is a course and distance winner 1.63 \ 1.13

Now odds on with Flutter bye the only real danger if the early market is accurate

1250 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Quickbeam, 15/8 Overbranch, 2/1 Consigliere, 33/1 Oscar Owen, 50/1 Roseville .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Effectively a three-horse contest. Consigliere has bags of ability but isn't the most assured of jumpers and, while Overbranch is a safe conveyance with good enough form to suggest she'll be thereabouts, QUICKBEAM (nap) is unexposed and may just prove a cut above both in this grade.

I like these races for place only betting - 3 vying for 2 places

Quickbeam is 4/5 1.72 / 1.25

750 WOLVes
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Barkass, 7/2 Kingsholm, 13/2 Putra Laju, 9/1 Climate, Tallest Peak, 14/1 Keepsgettingbetter, 16/1 Broughtons Silk, Seta Pura, 20/1 Flagstone, Roundthetwist, Semah Harold, 50/1 Orchestrator, 66/1 All About Jack .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BARKASS (nap) looks better than the average plater despite his reported physical problems and he can make George Baker's dash up from Kempton worthwhile. Putra Laju looks the best alternative.

iNTERESTING market here with 5 sub double figures

Closer inspection needed as this is a late race time and anything could happen i n the interim 2.72 / 1.3

My one a day I think will be Quickbeam purely from a probability perspective - 5 horse race - 2 clear outsiders and a horse now at odds on with a significant gap developed between the 2 marke t leaders and the rest of the field

Friday, 28 November 2008

28/11

3 of the 4 market leaders took all 3 places in the selected race yesterday


28/11

3 of the 4 market leaders took all 3 places in the selected race yesterday

710 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Magic Mornings, 4/1 Spinone, 6/1 Imco Spirit, 8/1 Brazen Beauty, Smartest, 10/1 Conforming, Halcyon Princess, 14/1 Inishtearaght, 20/1 Miss Al Gunn, Saorocain, 25/1 Donnai, 33/1 Abundant Spirit, Bice, Blackwell Nation ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAGIC MORNINGS, runner-up in two of her three races over 7f at this venue, should be able to put her experience to good use. A possible reservation is based on the fact that this 6f trip could prove on the sharp side for her, since she was outpaced by newcomer, Andalacia, here two weeks ago, leaving an impression that she might benefit from going a bit further, rather than taking a step back in trip. However, she has the advantage of being well drawn, and this looks the weakest race that she has contested so far.\n
Spinone is one of two runners for the venue's leading trainer Ger Lyons, and it looks significant that Pat Smullen rides this son of Proud Citizen, leaving Pat Shanahan to partner the Dermot Weld-trained debutante Brazen Beauty. Spinone is equipped with a tongue-tie.\n
The other Lyons runner, Imco Spirit, shaped quite well here first time out in September, and appeared not to stay when tried over 1m in the maiden won by Sirgarfieldsobers on his second outing.

For me Irish racing can be too inconclusive for me to look at the place only market, but if you remember the Irish Combos - Weld almost always has Smullen onboard, but on this occasion Smullen has opted for Spinone so this may be a clue in itself - market not fully formed at time of writing but 2.08 is good price (that's the price at the moment)

550 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 The Magic Of Rio, 5/2 Glamorous Spirit, Smokey Ryder, 12/1 Barnezet, 16/1 Imaginary Diva, Old Sarum, 33/1 Brown Lentic, Buddy Marvellous, Diamond Til, 50/1 Catman .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE MAGIC OF RIO is taken to overcome her wide draw at the expense of Smokey Ryder. Glamorous Spirit is the only other runner who makes any appeal.

A probability race here? MAgic of Rio shortened but remember the race time! 2.56 / 1.23

920 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Back In The Red, 11/2 Blue Charm, 10/1 Littledodayno, Peopleton Brook, Polish World, Spoof Master, Thoughtsofstardom, 12/1 Mistress Cooper, 14/1 After The Show, Ever Cheerful, 20/1 Commander Wish, 33/1 Royal Acclamation .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not too many of these come here in top form. The exceptions are BACK IN THE RED and Blue Charm and, with Sylvester Kirk's runner drawn in stall one, preference is for the former, who looked a different animal in the first-time blinkers over C&D last time. His promising apprentice offsets the penalty incurred and he has the toe to get the inside rail from his middle draw. He'll go very close if the headgear works as well again.

Price gapper here - now 2/1 in a poor quality race - would rather find a better quality price gapper - 3.1 / 1.64

120 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Special Reserve, 11/4 Blessing, 5/1 Spouk, 10/1 Roleplay, 14/1 Bantu, 16/1 Classic Dancer, Fashion Week, Resentful Angel, Yvonne Evelyn, 33/1 Rettorical Lad .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Were this decided purely on natural ability then it would be hard to get away from Special Reserve, who hasn't had much luck in recent starts and ran very well off a mark of 77 last time. The exaggerated waiting tactics are a response to him finding less than looked likely on more than one occasion though and he is reluctantly overlooked in favour of SPOUK. Luca Cumani's filly stepped up on her debut effort at Wolverhampton last time and almost certainly has more to come.

Spouk is the mover here almost sharing favouratism with Special Reserve - and given the look of the race as a potential 3 horse race, this move looks worth following - 3.2 / 1.42 for Spouk

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Invincible Heart, 3/1 Lexlenos, 5/1 Global, 8/1 Cognac Boy ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Invincible Heart sets the standard here but he isn't sure to appreciate the return to 7f and LEXLENOS, who was a rare winning newcomer for her trainer, is taken to improve past him now upped in distance.

Lexlenos is 2/1 and this could be a 3 horse race but as we have seen this week, preference is for races with 3 the place rather than 2 the place 1.88 / 1.3 - 1.3 for both Invincible and Lexlenos

1210 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Little Shilling, 6/1 Glen Rouge, 7/1 Bonneta, 12/1 Hooky´s Hope, 14/1 Tigerific, 16/1 Description, Tara Queen, 20/1 Turbulent Flight, 25/1 Ceilidh Lass, King´s Envoy, Rocknest Island, 33/1 Art Investor, Cinaman, Montchara, Wild Wood, 50/1 Bayfirth .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is always the chance that one of the unexposed members of this field might crawl out of the woodwork but it is hard to look beyond LITTLE SHILLING in the light of his two recent wins

Impressive last 2 runs but a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle -still Little SHilling is now odds on and there do not seem to be any market moves amongst the opposition
1.91 / 1.2

110 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Run To Space, 100/30 Bow School, 8/1 Ho Pang Yau, 10/1 Ajay, 14/1 Fine Parchment, Snow´s Ride, 20/1 Harcas, Industrial Star, Mick Finan, 25/1 Teviot Lass, The Ginger Man, 33/1 Bronze Dancer, Jupsala .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many appeal and this may be dominated by two ex-pointers. \Bow School hails from a yard in great form but preference is for RUN TO SPACE (nap), who should find conditions right up his street.[

3rd fav is 10/1 so this could be a 2 horse affair - 3.05 / 1.56 - whenever they breach the 1.5 it always puts me off

145 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Glencree, 2/1 Broadway Star, 11/2 Danzatrice, 9/1 Le Vert Galant, 12/1 Eagles Mist, 20/1 Jane Of Arc, Poseidon, 33/1 Dee Cee Bolter, Overthrow, 40/1 Dechiper, 50/1 Hurricane Jack, Muncaster Castle, Port Na Spaniagh, 66/1 Ashgrove Diamond, Persian Tonic .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Danzatrice is interesting, given her liking for the course, but hurdling experience may prevail here. Glencree has to be feared but BROADWAY STAR is entitled to go close on his initial effort over hurdles and is given the vote.[

top 2 are 7/4 and Poseidon a potential market mover
2.86/1.42
2.94/1.29
Interesting that Broadway star is currently shorter in the place only market and is 2nd fav!

100 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mount Helicon, 4/1 Art Trend, 10/1 Drum Major, Special Branch Ami, 12/1 Wise Hawk, Zen Factor, 16/1 Cossack Prince, 25/1 Nino Cochise, 50/1 Vertueux .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOUNT HELICON is some way ahead of this field on Flat performance and must be hard to beat if proving equally proficient over hurdles. Zen Factor may be the best each-way alternative.[

A probability race here but a few debutants -looks to concern the front 2 1.66 / 1.16

205 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ballydub, 7/1 Miko De Beauchene, 15/2 Ringaroses, 8/1 Galient, 14/1 Dan Buoy, Sarde, 16/1 Adroit Approach, Arrayou, Butler´s Cabin, Green Mile, Just Amazing, 20/1 Bertie May, 25/1 Don´t Push It, Pocket Aces, 33/1 Mossville, Openide, Super Lord, Temoin .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Miko De Beauchene found only a Philip Hobbs improver too good for him here a year ago and it could be the same story again with lightly raced BALLYDUB (nap) having shaped well behind classy Punchestowns on his reappearance and been lucky to have escaped the attentions of the handicapper

Now 6/4 is a positive and 4 the place but an 18 runner handicap over the jumps 2.62 / 1.35 -3 miler race

240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kicks For Free, 15/8 The Market Man, 3/1 Ring The Boss, 8/1 Oh Crick .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ring The Boss's jumping left something to be desired at Wincanton and he could have difficulty matching KICKS FOR FREE - marginally best on official hurdles ratings - and The Market Man, both of whom have made a highly promising start to their chasing career

Kicks is evens - looks like 3 to fight for 2 places here - another plus is this is a Nicholls horse and I do tend to make an exception of backing in 2 the place races over jumps if the fav is a Nicholls Horse or a King horse ridden by Thornton 2.06 / 1.41

A tempting price -this latter race - 1.41 to place for a horse to beat 2 to place and a Nicholls /Thomas horse
550 KEMPTON is a race I will return to given it is a probability race and I really need to see the market moves of the front 3 to determine who to place back

Mount Helicon represents Thornton and King - a killer combo when on a market leader and will be my choice today in the 1pm at Newbury

Thursday, 27 November 2008

27/11

Patience the key yesterday - waiting until the 720 wolves - the other race was a 6 runner 2 the place race and the fav was a faller.

Preference always for 3 the place over 2 the place especially when the former is a probability race

850 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Remember Ramon, 3/1 Action Impact, 13/2 Indian Skipper, 7/1 Yankee Storm, 8/1 Dream Of Fortune, 12/1 Resplendent Ace, 14/1 War Anthem, 25/1 Mount Usher, 33/1 Prince Zafonic.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: From a stable finally going great guns after being struck down by a bug, REMEMBER RAMON (nap) is taken to follow up his recent win off a mark that - despite his penalty - is still well below what he was rated at one time. Action Impact seems sure to run well, while Dream Of Fortune could also go well.[
Prince Zafonic at 12/1! Watch out for this one if remaining at 12/1 or any price up to 20/1 at the off - worth a sly shilling each way!

1225 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Over Sixty, 100/30 Carole´s Legacy, 5/1 Mewstone, 8/1 Tara Two Hills, 10/1 Easter Legend, 12/1 Cornelia, 16/1 Delays Expected, 33/1 Cool Friend, 50/1 Braybrooke Lady, Kentford Serotina, 100/1 Gone Cloudy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Useful bumper performer Carole's Legacy may be open to improvement on her fair first effort over hurdles upped in trip now but OVER SIXTY sets a useful standard on her latest second against male opposition in a Cheltenham Grade 2 and has to be preferred. Judged on both racing performance and on pedigree, Over Sixty should find this longer trip within range. Carole's Legacy is still next best, ahead of Mewstone.

Choc Thornton returns on an odds on shot Over Sixty for Alan King in a race where 5 runners are 40/1 or bigger 1.94 / 1.16

1255 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Straw Bear, 5/4 Pasco, 15/2 Isn´t That Lucky, 50/1 Thenford Trout, 100/1 Hi Blue.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With the small field, flatter track and forecast less testing ground all in his favour, STRAW BEAR may be able to banish the memory of a tame effort against Arkle favourite Tatenen at Cheltenhasm last time and instead build on the promise of an eye-catching chase debut second at Exeter the time before. Tatenen's stablemate, Pasco, doesn't have that much to find with Straw Bear on that Exeter form and should be ready to take full advantage if the selection blows out again.

A 2 horse race I hope in prospect pays 2 the place, but like yesterday if there is a 3 the place race then preference would be for that
1.26 Pasco
1.33 Straw Bear

130 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Parlesotho, 5/1 Cavallini, 8/1 Tuskar Rock, 9/1 Cootehill, Karasakal, 12/1 Edgbriar, 16/1 Haldibari, Maree Hall, 20/1 Inchloch, Sovereign Spirit, 25/1 Agoodun,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a better-contested race than the modest one PARLESOTHO (nap) won at Leicester last week but she absolutely scooted up there and, despite her penalty, she makes strong appeal for her top stable. With a doubt about the suitability of this ground for Cavallini, Tuskar Rock may be the best alternative.

Again a King horse heads the market but why is Tusker Rock 28/1 - a kind of reverse 16/1 - there have been big priced winners this week whose prices were doubled or greater than their betting forecast prices. Edgebriar is the traditional market mover 2 / 1.28

205 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tartak, 2/1 The Tother One, 4/1 Gone To Lunch, 11/2 Hold Em, 10/1 Crescent Island, 33/1 Ouste.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may be between TARTAK and The Tother One, with preference for Tartak, who has made a big impression in winning both of his starts for Tom George, particularly so in a decent event at Huntingdon last time.

3 in with a shout paying out 2 the place -The Tother One and Gone to Lunch are the market movers
Tother One 2.52 / 1.59
Gone to Lunch 4 / 1.95
Tartack 4.8 / 2.3


105 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Shamari, 4/1 Nearby, 7/1 Erdeli, 10/1 King Brex, 12/1 Roodolph, 14/1 King Ozzy, 20/1 Come On Jonny, 25/1 One To Follow, Phamtom Du Lac, 50/1 Meohmy, National Petition, Prudent Phoebe, 100/1 Evening Class, New Rackheath.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The ex-French pair SHAMARI and Nearby have long absences to overcome but they represent top yards and have the potential to do well over jumps. Preference is for Shamari, but it is probably worth checking the market before getting too heavily involved.[

Debutants here and NAtional Petition quite a mover 2.554 / 1.46 National PEtition at 50 is worth £2 for me !

140 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Deep Purple, 3/1 Laredo Sound, 13/2 Mister Watzisname, 8/1 Mon Michel, 10/1 Dominican Monk, 12/1 Quillan Hill, 14/1 Bon Temps Rouler, 20/1 Tritonville Lodge, 25/1 Like A Duke, Soprano.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No surprise to see improvement from Deep Purple but his jumping was not good enough at Wetherby last time and with Charlie Mann's string in great order, LAREDO SOUND is preferred

Laredo Sound is now favourite here 2.64 / 1.35

215 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 The Nightingale, 10/1 Calusa Crystal, Sassanias, 20/1 Patsy Finnegan, 25/1 Thomondgate, 33/1 Puccini, 66/1 Alfie Rose.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be a straightforward task for THE NIGHTINGALE, who was in the process of showing smart form before slipping up with the race at his mercy on his hurdle debut.

A Nicholls horse at a short price should hopefully be trusted here in a quite obvious choice
BUT only 2 the place 1.19 / 1.08

1245 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Zed Candy, 9/2 Baskerville, 12/1 Burnbank, 14/1 Crazy Bold.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The useful and consistent ZED CANDY was impressive here last month and, with less to beat, he ought to take this with ease.[BDO]
1/5 now is a positive
Will there be a place only market here? 1.25 / 1.08

120 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Gypsy George, 13/8 Starburst Diamond, 11/2 Cast Cada, 8/1 Comhla Ri Coig, 25/1 Another Winnie, Stran Millis, 33/1 Gagarin, Legal Joy, 50/1 Where´s Trigger, 100/1 Henbeck Lady.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Starburst Diamond sets a good standard over hurdles but he may struggle to give weight to useful staying chaser GYPSY GEORGE, who will be hard to beat if proving anywhere near as adept over hurdles

A clear 4 horse race here -Cast Cada a market mover

Gypsy 2.82 /1.22
Starburst 3.5 /1.37
Cast Cada 4.4 /1.5
Comhla Ri Coig 7.6 / 1.95

Clear probability race here if the perceived outsiders run to their prices ( ie BADLY!)

120 UTTOXETER looks between 4 horses with 3 to place so is clearly better for me than a sub 8 runner event with only 2 places. I will stick with the fav here at 1.22 as my one a day