8/10

Very much the calm after the storm today. Not impressed with the matches today and limited trading from me.

1145am - Gulbene v Olimps Riga - 1.23 home - Latvian top flight is perhaps not my league of choice.

21.08.2011	D1	Gulbene 2005	3-0	Olimps/RFS
19.06.2011	D1	Olimps/RFS	1-3	Gulbene 2005
30.04.2011	D1	Gulbene 2005	2-1	Olimps/RFS

Gulbene have scored 2-3-3- in most recent head to heads. Is this a home match or an away match? Home on Betfair and away on www.futbol24.com
soccerway has this as an away match for Gulbene.
Both teams have lost their last 6 so a match to avoid for me.

230pm - Llanelli v Aberystwyth - 1.24 home

15.01.2011	D1	Aberystwyth Town	0-2	Llanelli AFC
13.11.2010	Cup	Llanelli AFC	1-0 AET	Aberystwyth Town
09.11.2010	LC	Llanelli AFC	3-1	Aberystwyth Town
26.10.2010	LC	Aberystwyth Town	0-1	Llanelli AFC
15.10.2010	D1	Llanelli AFC	2-3	Aberystwyth Town
09.04.2010	D1	Aberystwyth Town	1-1	Llanelli AFC

Llanelli unbeaten in recent head to heads. 3 clean sheets in last 4 head to heads.
3rd v 9th after 9 matches.

Fri	19/08/11	PRL	Llanelli	4 - 1	Afan Lido
Sat	03/09/11	PRL	Llanelli	0 - 1	The New Saints
Sat	10/09/11	PRL	Llanelli	9 - 2	Newtown
Fri	23/09/11	PRL	Llanelli	2 - 0	Port Talbot Town

Beaten only by 2nd in league 0-1 at home. Have scored 2-9-4. Have beaten current 5th, 6th and 12th so augurs well against 9th.

Sat	13/08/11	PRL	Bangor City	3 - 2	Llanelli
Fri	19/08/11	PRL	Llanelli	4 - 1	Afan Lido
Sun	28/08/11	PRL	Airbus UK	1 - 1	Llanelli
Sat	03/09/11	PRL	Llanelli	0 - 1	The New Saints
Wed	07/09/11	PRL	Carmarthen Town	0 - 3	Llanelli
Sat	10/09/11	PRL	Llanelli	9 - 2	Newtown
Sun	18/09/11	PRL	Bala Town	2 - 4	Llanelli
Fri	23/09/11	PRL	Llanelli	2 - 0	Port Talbot Town
Sat	01/10/11	PRL	Prestatyn Town	0 - 2	Llanelli

Won last 5 matches scoring 3-0-9-4-2-2. Only losses v current 2nd and 3rd.

Sun	14/08/11	PRL	Neath	4 - 2	Aberystwyth Town
Sat	27/08/11	PRL	Bangor City	1 - 1	Aberystwyth Town
Fri	16/09/11	PRL	Airbus UK	1 - 1	Aberystwyth Town
Tue	27/09/11	PRL	Afan Lido	0 - 0	Aberystwyth Town
Sat	01/10/11	PRL	The New Saints	3 - 2	Aberystwyth Town

Losses away to 4th and 6th - draws against 5th, 8th and 12th

Sun	14/08/11	PRL	Neath	4 - 2	Aberystwyth Town
Fri	19/08/11	PRL	Aberystwyth Town	4 - 1	Newtown
Sat	27/08/11	PRL	Bangor City	1 - 1	Aberystwyth Town
Sat	03/09/11	PRL	Aberystwyth Town	0 - 4	Bala Town
Sat	10/09/11	PRL	Aberystwyth Town	0 - 2	Port Talbot Town
Fri	16/09/11	PRL	Airbus UK	1 - 1	Aberystwyth Town
Sun	25/09/11	PRL	Aberystwyth Town	1 - 3	Prestatyn Town
Tue	27/09/11	PRL	Afan Lido	0 - 0	Aberystwyth Town
Sat	01/10/11	PRL	The New Saints	3 - 2	Aberystwyth Town

Sole win came against bottom of the league.
I don't want to waste too much time on these lesser leagues. What we can see is an away side likely to draw best case scenario. Llanelli have scored 2 or more in recent home matches.

3pm - Aldershot v Macclesfield - 1.91 home
3pm - Charlton v Tranmere - 1.65 home
3pm - Fleetwood Town v Forest Green - 1.65 home
3pm - Huddersfield v Stevenage - 1.71 home
3pm - Sheff Wed v Chesterfield - 1.74 home
3pm - Shrewsbury v Barnet -1.69 home
3pm - Swindon v Hereford - 1.49 home

16.07.2010	CF	Hereford Utd	1-4	Swindon Town
21.03.2009	L1	Swindon Town	3-0	Hereford Utd

Recent head to heads in a friendly and League 1.
HEAD TO HEADS - as above.

LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 23rd after 11 matches.

HOME TEAM - Swindon

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWW - no draw at home - loss 1-2 v 6th placed Oxford.
Clean sheet wins against 1st, 19th and 21st and playing 23rd today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLLLWWWLWL - 5 away losses where they have not scored in 4 of them, so reliant this early in the season on home form. 4 wins in last 6 matches includes an away win.

GOAL TRENDS - 80% overs after 5 matches - have scored in all home matches. 5 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals, the 3 exceptions all 2-0 scorelines.

STREAKS - no draw in 11, have not conceded in 2 home matches.

AWAY TEAM - Hereford

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDDLD - no win away yet and stark contrast with draw less Swindon.Draws against current 4th , 11th and 15th. Last 2 draws 0-0. Losses against current 1st and 5th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDDWLLLDL - sole win 1-0 against 20th. Only 1 draw recently in last 6.

GOAL TRENDS - 20% overs away from home. 3 of last 4 matches under 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 7 of 11 matches this season and in 3 of last 4 matches. have never scored more than 1 goal this season.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 5 overall without a win, no goal scored in last 2.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - lack of congruency with goals trends ( yes only 5 matches to go by so not strong) and Swindon drawless against Hereford who have drawn 3 of their last 4 away. THis looks Swindon's to lose. Perhaps a 0-0 insurance back ( as Hereford have drawn 0-0 away twice) and back Swindon in the match odds.

5pm - Turkey U21 v Hungary U21 - 1.35 home

Wed	18/11/09	UUC	Turkey U21	0 - 0	Estonia U21
Sun	23/05/10	UUC	Estonia U21	1 - 0	Turkey U21
Wed	26/05/10	UUC	Switzerland U21	0 - 2	Turkey U21
Sat	04/09/10	UUC	Turkey U21	0 - 1	Georgia U21
Tue	07/09/10	UUC	Turkey U21	1 - 0	Ireland Rep U21
Fri	25/03/11	UUC	Turkey U21	6 - 1	Liechtenstein U21
Fri	02/09/11	UUC	Liechtenstein U21	0 - 3	Turkey U21
Tue	06/09/11	UUC	Turkey U21	1 - 0	Ireland Rep U21

5 wins in last 6 matches for Turkey. 2 losses recently have been 1-0, the last courtesy of an own goal. In 4 of the 5 wins, Turkey kept a clean sheet. The goal they conceded was at home to Liechtenstein where I suppose complacency got the better of them.

Tue	13/10/09	UUC	Turkey U21	1 - 0	Armenia U21
Sat	14/11/09	UUC	Turkey U21	1 - 3	Switzerland U21
Wed	18/11/09	UUC	Turkey U21	0 - 0	Estonia U21
Sat	04/09/10	UUC	Turkey U21	0 - 1	Georgia U21
Tue	07/09/10	UUC	Turkey U21	1 - 0	Ireland Rep U21
Fri	25/03/11	UUC	Turkey U21	6 - 1	Liechtenstein U21
Tue	06/09/11	UUC	Turkey U21	1 - 0	Ireland Rep U21

Have won their last 3 at home, 2 1-0 wins over Ireland. Again the problem is where Hungary fit in form wise?

Wed	12/08/09	UUC	Wales U21	4 - 1	Hungary U21
Fri	13/11/09	UUC	Hungary U21	2 - 0	Italy U21
Wed	03/03/10	UUC	Italy U21	2 - 0	Hungary U21
Wed	11/08/10	UUC	Bosnia-Herzego…	0 - 2	Hungary U21
Sat	04/09/10	UUC	Hungary U21	0 - 1	Wales U21
Tue	07/09/10	UUC	Hungary U21	0 - 0	Bosnia-Herzego…
Thu	01/09/11	UUC	Ireland Rep U21	2 - 1	Hungary U21
Tue	06/09/11	UUC	Hungary U21	0 - 3	Italy U21

Only one win in last 6 was away to Bosnia.
Hungary failed to score in 4 of those matches. Apart from the matches against Italy, Hungary have generally kept things tight.
No draw away in 16 Euro matches going back to 2004 for Hungary.

Wed	10/06/09	UUC	Luxembourg U21	0 - 1	Hungary U21
Wed	12/08/09	UUC	Wales U21	4 - 1	Hungary U21
Wed	03/03/10	UUC	Italy U21	2 - 0	Hungary U21
Wed	11/08/10	UUC	Bosnia-Herzego…	0 - 2	Hungary U21
Thu	01/09/11	UUC	Ireland Rep U21	2 - 1	Hungary U21

Only 2 recent wins agaisnt Luxembourg and Bosnia ( 2 goals in the 79th and 82nd minutes)

Tough match to get an angle into bar the fact Hungary don't seem to draw away in the Euros. Turkey have kept it tight at home and I suspect they could score first in a match which is not top of my list. There were excellent match selections yesterday. We have the dregs today.

630pm - Liechtenstein v Scotland - -1.3 away
The 2010 meeting of these 2 was an ideal exercise in enhanced betting. Liech took the lead. Scotland equalised and won in the 97th minute at home. They were never going to draw surely?
With the Czechs losing last night, Scotland must win this evening and are likely to have a scrap on their hands if Liech can be so tough to beat away in Scotland.

Fri	03/09/10	EUC	Liechtenstein	0 - 4	Spain
Tue	07/09/10	EUC	Scotland	2 - 1	Liechtenstein
Tue	12/10/10	EUC	Liechtenstein	0 - 2	Czech Republic
Tue	29/03/11	EUC	Czech Republic	2 - 0	Liechtenstein
Fri	03/06/11	EUC	Liechtenstein	2 - 0	Lithuania
Fri	02/09/11	EUC	Lithuania	0 - 0	Liechtenstein
Tue	06/09/11	EUC	Spain	6 - 0	Liechtenstein

Have failed to score in 4 of last 5. Beat Lithuania at home 2-0.

Sat	24/03/07	EUC	Liechtenstein	1 - 4	Northern Ireland
Wed	28/03/07	EUC	Liechtenstein	1 - 0	Latvia
Wed	06/06/07	EUC	Liechtenstein	0 - 2	Spain
Sat	13/10/07	EUC	Liechtenstein	0 - 3	Sweden
Wed	17/10/07	EUC	Liechtenstein	3 - 0	Iceland
Fri	03/09/10	EUC	Liechtenstein	0 - 4	Spain
Tue	12/10/10	EUC	Liechtenstein	0 - 2	Czech Republic
Fri	03/06/11	EUC	Liechtenstein	2 - 0	Lithuania

At home, Liech have recorded recent ( as far back as 2007) wins against Latvia, Iceland and Lithuania. Where do Scotland fit in as far as these 3 teams are concerned?
No draw in 12 at home for Liech.

Fri	03/09/10	EUC	Lithuania	0 - 0	Scotland
Tue	07/09/10	EUC	Scotland	2 - 1	Liechtenstein
Fri	08/10/10	EUC	Czech Republic	1 - 0	Scotland
Tue	12/10/10	EUC	Scotland	2 - 3	Spain
Sat	03/09/11	EUC	Scotland	2 - 2	Czech Republic
Tue	06/09/11	EUC	Scotland	1 - 0	Lithuania

A must win surely as Scotland face Spain last.
A good description of Scotland would be " battling" -tough tussles when they lost v Spain and drew v the Czechs. A 2-1 win there stolen by a 90th+ minute Czech goal. Spain needed a 79th minute goal to win.
Away from home, Scotland have not scored.

Fri	03/09/10	EUC	Lithuania	0 - 0	Scotland
Fri	08/10/10	EUC	Czech Republic	1 - 0	Scotland

This must end this evening. It is a sequence which has the ideal conditions to end this evening. Can we trust Scotland away from home - I mean Liech beat LIthuania for goodness sake and Scotland could not score against them.
I would want to see Kenny Miller playing for any added confidence.