Saturday, 8 October 2011

8/10

Very much the calm after the storm today. Not impressed with the matches today and limited trading from me.

1145am - Gulbene v Olimps Riga - 1.23 home - Latvian top flight is perhaps not my league of choice.
21.08.2011 D1 Gulbene 2005 3-0 Olimps/RFS
19.06.2011 D1 Olimps/RFS 1-3 Gulbene 2005
30.04.2011 D1 Gulbene 2005 2-1 Olimps/RFS
Gulbene have scored 2-3-3- in most recent head to heads. Is this a home match or an away match? Home on Betfair and away on www.futbol24.com
soccerway has this as an away match for Gulbene.
Both teams have lost their last 6 so a match to avoid for me.

230pm - Llanelli v Aberystwyth - 1.24 home
15.01.2011 D1 Aberystwyth Town 0-2 Llanelli AFC
13.11.2010 Cup Llanelli AFC 1-0 AET Aberystwyth Town
09.11.2010 LC Llanelli AFC 3-1 Aberystwyth Town
26.10.2010 LC Aberystwyth Town 0-1 Llanelli AFC
15.10.2010 D1 Llanelli AFC 2-3 Aberystwyth Town
09.04.2010 D1 Aberystwyth Town 1-1 Llanelli AFC
Llanelli unbeaten in recent head to heads. 3 clean sheets in last 4 head to heads.
3rd v 9th after 9 matches.
Fri19/08/11PRLLlanelli 4 - 1Afan Lido

Sat03/09/11PRLLlanelli 0 - 1The New Saints

Sat10/09/11PRLLlanelli 9 - 2Newtown

Fri23/09/11PRLLlanelli 2 - 0Port Talbot Town
Beaten only by 2nd in league 0-1 at home. Have scored 2-9-4. Have beaten current 5th, 6th and 12th so augurs well against 9th.
Sat13/08/11PRLBangor City 3 - 2Llanelli

Fri19/08/11PRLLlanelli 4 - 1Afan Lido

Sun28/08/11PRLAirbus UK 1 - 1Llanelli

Sat03/09/11PRLLlanelli 0 - 1The New Saints

Wed07/09/11PRLCarmarthen Town 0 - 3Llanelli

Sat10/09/11PRLLlanelli 9 - 2Newtown

Sun18/09/11PRLBala Town 2 - 4Llanelli

Fri23/09/11PRLLlanelli 2 - 0Port Talbot Town

Sat01/10/11PRLPrestatyn Town 0 - 2Llanelli

Won last 5 matches scoring 3-0-9-4-2-2. Only losses v current 2nd and 3rd.
Sun14/08/11PRLNeath 4 - 2Aberystwyth Town

Sat27/08/11PRLBangor City 1 - 1Aberystwyth Town

Fri16/09/11PRLAirbus UK 1 - 1Aberystwyth Town

Tue27/09/11PRLAfan Lido 0 - 0Aberystwyth Town

Sat01/10/11PRLThe New Saints 3 - 2Aberystwyth Town

Losses away to 4th and 6th - draws against 5th, 8th and 12th
Sun14/08/11PRLNeath 4 - 2Aberystwyth Town

Fri19/08/11PRLAberystwyth Town 4 - 1Newtown

Sat27/08/11PRLBangor City 1 - 1Aberystwyth Town

Sat03/09/11PRLAberystwyth Town 0 - 4Bala Town

Sat10/09/11PRLAberystwyth Town 0 - 2Port Talbot Town

Fri16/09/11PRLAirbus UK 1 - 1Aberystwyth Town

Sun25/09/11PRLAberystwyth Town 1 - 3Prestatyn Town

Tue27/09/11PRLAfan Lido 0 - 0Aberystwyth Town

Sat01/10/11PRLThe New Saints 3 - 2Aberystwyth Town

Sole win came against bottom of the league.
I don't want to waste too much time on these lesser leagues. What we can see is an away side likely to draw best case scenario. Llanelli have scored 2 or more in recent home matches.

3pm - Aldershot v Macclesfield - 1.91 home
3pm -
Charlton v Tranmere - 1.65 home
3pm -
Fleetwood Town v Forest Green - 1.65 home
3pm -
Huddersfield v Stevenage - 1.71 home
3pm -
Sheff Wed v Chesterfield - 1.74 home
3pm -
Shrewsbury v Barnet -1.69 home
3pm -
Swindon v Hereford - 1.49 home
16.07.2010 CF Hereford Utd 1-4 Swindon Town
21.03.2009 L1 Swindon Town 3-0 Hereford Utd
Recent head to heads in a friendly and League 1.
HEAD TO HEADS - as above.

LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 23rd after 11 matches.

HOME TEAM - Swindon

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWW - no draw at home - loss 1-2 v 6th placed Oxford.
Clean sheet wins against 1st, 19th and 21st and playing 23rd today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLLLWWWLWL - 5 away losses where they have not scored in 4 of them, so reliant this early in the season on home form. 4 wins in last 6 matches includes an away win.

GOAL TRENDS - 80% overs after 5 matches - have scored in all home matches. 5 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals, the 3 exceptions all 2-0 scorelines.

STREAKS - no draw in 11, have not conceded in 2 home matches.

AWAY TEAM - Hereford

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDDLD - no win away yet and stark contrast with draw less Swindon.Draws against current 4th , 11th and 15th. Last 2 draws 0-0. Losses against current 1st and 5th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDDWLLLDL - sole win 1-0 against 20th. Only 1 draw recently in last 6.


GOAL TRENDS - 20% overs away from home. 3 of last 4 matches under 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 7 of 11 matches this season and in 3 of last 4 matches. have never scored more than 1 goal this season.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 5 overall without a win, no goal scored in last 2.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - lack of congruency with goals trends ( yes only 5 matches to go by so not strong) and Swindon drawless against Hereford who have drawn 3 of their last 4 away. THis looks Swindon's to lose. Perhaps a 0-0 insurance back ( as Hereford have drawn 0-0 away twice) and back Swindon in the match odds.

5pm - Turkey U21 v Hungary U21 - 1.35 home
Wed18/11/09UUCTurkey U21 0 - 0Estonia U21

Sun23/05/10UUCEstonia U21 1 - 0Turkey U21

Wed26/05/10UUCSwitzerland U21 0 - 2Turkey U21

Sat04/09/10UUCTurkey U21 0 - 1Georgia U21

Tue07/09/10UUCTurkey U21 1 - 0Ireland Rep U21

Fri25/03/11UUCTurkey U21 6 - 1Liechtenstein U21

Fri02/09/11UUCLiechtenstein U21 0 - 3Turkey U21

Tue06/09/11UUCTurkey U21 1 - 0Ireland Rep U21

5 wins in last 6 matches for Turkey. 2 losses recently have been 1-0, the last courtesy of an own goal. In 4 of the 5 wins, Turkey kept a clean sheet. The goal they conceded was at home to Liechtenstein where I suppose complacency got the better of them.
Tue13/10/09UUCTurkey U21 1 - 0Armenia U21

Sat14/11/09UUCTurkey U21 1 - 3Switzerland U21

Wed18/11/09UUCTurkey U21 0 - 0Estonia U21

Sat04/09/10UUCTurkey U21 0 - 1Georgia U21

Tue07/09/10UUCTurkey U21 1 - 0Ireland Rep U21

Fri25/03/11UUCTurkey U21 6 - 1Liechtenstein U21

Tue06/09/11UUCTurkey U21 1 - 0Ireland Rep U21

Have won their last 3 at home, 2 1-0 wins over Ireland. Again the problem is where Hungary fit in form wise?
Wed12/08/09UUCWales U21 4 - 1Hungary U21

Fri13/11/09UUCHungary U21 2 - 0Italy U21

Wed03/03/10UUCItaly U21 2 - 0Hungary U21

Wed11/08/10UUCBosnia-Herzego… 0 - 2Hungary U21

Sat04/09/10UUCHungary U21 0 - 1Wales U21

Tue07/09/10UUCHungary U21 0 - 0Bosnia-Herzego…

Thu01/09/11UUCIreland Rep U21 2 - 1Hungary U21

Tue06/09/11UUCHungary U21 0 - 3Italy U21

Only one win in last 6 was away to Bosnia.
Hungary failed to score in 4 of those matches. Apart from the matches against Italy, Hungary have generally kept things tight.
No draw away in 16 Euro matches going back to 2004 for Hungary.
Wed10/06/09UUCLuxembourg U21 0 - 1Hungary U21

Wed12/08/09UUCWales U21 4 - 1Hungary U21

Wed03/03/10UUCItaly U21 2 - 0Hungary U21

Wed11/08/10UUCBosnia-Herzego… 0 - 2Hungary U21

Thu01/09/11UUCIreland Rep U21 2 - 1Hungary U21

Only 2 recent wins agaisnt Luxembourg and Bosnia ( 2 goals in the 79th and 82nd minutes)

Tough match to get an angle into bar the fact Hungary don't seem to draw away in the Euros. Turkey have kept it tight at home and I suspect they could score first in a match which is not top of my list. There were excellent match selections yesterday. We have the dregs today.

630pm -
Liechtenstein v Scotland - -1.3 away
The 2010 meeting of these 2 was an ideal exercise in enhanced betting. Liech took the lead. Scotland equalised and won in the 97th minute at home. They were never going to draw surely?
With the Czechs losing last night, Scotland must win this evening and are likely to have a scrap on their hands if Liech can be so tough to beat away in Scotland.
Fri03/09/10EUCLiechtenstein 0 - 4Spain

Tue07/09/10EUCScotland 2 - 1Liechtenstein

Tue12/10/10EUCLiechtenstein 0 - 2Czech Republic

Tue29/03/11EUCCzech Republic 2 - 0Liechtenstein

Fri03/06/11EUCLiechtenstein 2 - 0Lithuania

Fri02/09/11EUCLithuania 0 - 0Liechtenstein

Tue06/09/11EUCSpain 6 - 0Liechtenstein

Have failed to score in 4 of last 5. Beat Lithuania at home 2-0.
Sat24/03/07EUCLiechtenstein 1 - 4Northern Ireland

Wed28/03/07EUCLiechtenstein 1 - 0Latvia

Wed06/06/07EUCLiechtenstein 0 - 2Spain

Sat13/10/07EUCLiechtenstein 0 - 3Sweden

Wed17/10/07EUCLiechtenstein 3 - 0Iceland

Fri03/09/10EUCLiechtenstein 0 - 4Spain

Tue12/10/10EUCLiechtenstein 0 - 2Czech Republic

Fri03/06/11EUCLiechtenstein 2 - 0Lithuania

At home, Liech have recorded recent ( as far back as 2007) wins against Latvia, Iceland and Lithuania. Where do Scotland fit in as far as these 3 teams are concerned?
No draw in 12 at home for Liech.
Fri03/09/10EUCLithuania 0 - 0Scotland

Tue07/09/10EUCScotland 2 - 1Liechtenstein

Fri08/10/10EUCCzech Republic 1 - 0Scotland

Tue12/10/10EUCScotland 2 - 3Spain

Sat03/09/11EUCScotland 2 - 2Czech Republic

Tue06/09/11EUCScotland 1 - 0Lithuania

A must win surely as Scotland face Spain last.
A good description of Scotland would be " battling" -tough tussles when they lost v Spain and drew v the Czechs. A 2-1 win there stolen by a 90th+ minute Czech goal. Spain needed a 79th minute goal to win.
Away from home, Scotland have not scored.
Fri03/09/10EUCLithuania 0 - 0Scotland

Fri08/10/10EUCCzech Republic 1 - 0Scotland

This must end this evening. It is a sequence which has the ideal conditions to end this evening. Can we trust Scotland away from home - I mean Liech beat LIthuania for goodness sake and Scotland could not score against them.
I would want to see Kenny Miller playing for any added confidence.

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