Saturday 1 October 2011

2/10

1130am - VVV v AZ Alkmaar - -1.43 away
HEAD TO HEADS
29.01.2011 D1 AZ Alkmaar 6-1 VVV Venlo
16.10.2010 D1 VVV Venlo 0-1 AZ Alkmaar
20.02.2010 D1 VVV Venlo 3-3 AZ Alkmaar
28.11.2009 D1 AZ Alkmaar 2-0 VVV Venlo
AZ unbeaten in last 4 head to heads . Away a lot closer .
LEAGUE POSITION - 17th v 1st - contrasting starts to the season after 7 matches.

HOME TEAM - VVV

RECENT HOME FORM - DDDL - 0-0 v Utrecht, 2-2 v Ajax when 2-0 up, 3-3 v PSV when 2-0 down, and 0-3 v Heerenveen ( all goals 74th min onwards) Good performances against 2 of the top 3 Dutch teams.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLDLDLL - 3 of the 4 losses came away.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals - the exception a 2-0 loss saw 21st and 41st minute goals which equals a successful over 2.5 goals trade. VVV have conceded in last 6.They have failed to score in last 2 and 4 of 7 this season.

STREAKS - -no win this season. they have conceded in last 6.

AWAY TEAM - AZ

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWW - loss 2-0 v Twente.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWWWW - no draws.

GOAL TRENDS - last 5 over 2.5 goals, 6 of 7 over 2.5 goals. HAve kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 5.Have failed to score only once this season.

STREAKS - 5 match winning streak, 2 match away winning streak,last 5 over 2.5 goals.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the form team in the league so far are AZ, both teams, with 7 matches gone, share over 2.5 goals trend in recent matches. No draw yet for AZ faces 3 draws in last 4 for VVV ( including against Ajax and PSV). Not congruent.

1245am -
Hearts v Celtic - 1.72 away
HEAD TO HEADS
11.05.2011 PR Hearts FC 0-3 Celtic FC
26.01.2011 PR Celtic FC 4-0 Hearts FC
10.11.2010 PR Hearts FC 2-0 Celtic FC
11.09.2010 PR Celtic FC 3-0 Hearts FC
09.05.2010 PR Hearts FC 1-2 Celtic FC
10.02.2010 PR Celtic FC 2-0 Hearts FC
Celtic have won 2011 fixtures without conceding, making 1.72 a nice price.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 3rd - Hearts have played 9 to Celtic's 8. Rangers have played 10.

HOME TEAM - Hearts

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWW - loss v Dundee United. Beat Aberdeen Hibs and St Mirren 2-0, 2-0, 3-0.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLWDWDWL - draw 1-1 v Rangers may augur well .

GOAL TRENDS - only one match over 2.5 goals. Clean sheets in last 3 home matches.

STREAKS - 3 match home winning streak. No draw at home.

AWAY TEAM - Celtic

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWL - loss inevitably v Rangers. Wins against exactly the same teams Hearts have played at home 0-2, 0-1, 0-2 again without conceding.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWLWWLW - other loss was 0-1 v Caley Thistle. No draws this season. 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 4 ( exception Rangers) and have failed to score in only 1 match ( missed 3rd min pen did not help)

GOAL TRENDS - general unders trend away as they tend not to concede. Outside of Old firm, last 3 matches without conceding.

STREAKS - 8 without a draw.3/3 away wins outside of Old firm without conceding.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 1.73 signals a tough afternoon for the Bhoys. Coincidentally the teams Hearts have beaten at home without conceding are the same teams Celtic have beaten away without conceding. Signals a well balanced afternoon where Celtic may have to wait. Celtic have kept Hearts out in last 2 head to heads but Hearts are buoyed by 3 home matches without conceding and keeping Rangers to 1-1 on the opening day of the season. Tough to get an angle into. Likely Hearts will be tough to beat without perhaps winning. Back 0-0 initially for as long as you dare? Lay Celtic at 1.72 and hope for a drift as they are stifled by Hearts?

130pm -
Bolton v Chelsea - 1.51 away
HEAD TO HEADS
24.01.2011 PR Bolton Wanderers 0-4 Chelsea FC
29.12.2010 PR Chelsea FC 1-0 Bolton Wanderers
13.04.2010 PR Chelsea FC 1-0 Bolton Wanderers
31.10.2009 PR Bolton Wanderers 0-4 Chelsea FC
28.10.2009 LC Chelsea FC 4-0 Bolton Wanderers
11.04.2009 PR Chelsea FC 4-3 Bolton Wanderers
Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in last 5 head to heads and have beaten Bolton 0-4 in last 2 visits.
LEAGUE POSITION - 20th ( bottom) v 4th

HOME TEAM - Bolton

RECENT HOME FORM - LLL - lost to City, United and Norwich, does not augur well. City were 0-2 up before scraping a 2-3 win. United more convincing and Chelsea have the potential for a comfortable afternoon if their defence continues its sturdy work.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLLLL - so losses against City, United and Arsenal. And who is next from the top 4? Sole win was away to QPR. Problems for Bolton upfront.

GOAL TRENDS - all matches this season over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 2 of last 3 and against 2 /3 of top 4 they have played. Have conceded in all last 5.

STREAKS - 5 match losing streak. No draw in 6. 6 matches over 2.5 goals.

AWAY TEAM - Chelsea

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWL - loss was v Man Utd. Draw v Stoke not unexpected. Win v Sunderland.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWWWLW - 4 wins in last 5.

GOAL TRENDS - last 5 matches over 2.5 goals have seen Chelsea score and concede in every one of those 5.

STREAKS - 5 without a draw - see above for goals streaks

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Bolton have had a torrid start to the season, playing 3 of top 4 and losing to all, without scoring in 2 of the 3. They play the 4th established top 4 side today and is this losing streak likely to change? I don't see where Bolton are going to get the goals from. Last goal was a 2nd half penalty. Bolton have failed to score against Chelsea in last 5. Potential win to nil correct score might be scuppered by the fact that Chelsea have conceded and scored in all of last 5 matches. Chelsea have scored 8/11 goals in the 2nd half with 5 in the last 15 minutes of matches. Late late specialists.

130pm -
Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag - 1.43 home
HEAD TO HEADS
20.02.2011 D1 ADO Den Haag 2-2 Feyenoord
28.11.2010 D1 Feyenoord 2-1 ADO Den Haag
21.02.2010 D1 Feyenoord 2-2 ADO Den Haag
29.11.2009 D1 ADO Den Haag 0-2 Feyenoord
26.04.2009 D1 ADO Den Haag 2-3 Feyenoord
Likelihood for over 2.5 goals when these 2 meet. Feyenoord have scored 2 or more in all of last 5 head to heads in the league.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 13th after 7 matches.

HOME TEAM - Feyenoord

RECENT HOME FORM - WDW - wins v Roda - 3-0 and De Graafschaop 4-0 and draw 2-2 with Heerenveen.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDWWL - recent loss v AZ saw Feyenoord score first.

GOAL TRENDS - last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Feyenoord have scored 2-3-1-2-3-4-1 this season. General consistency - averaging just over 2 ( as they do in the head to heads!)

STREAKS - 3 at home without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - ADO

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWL has seen ADO score 2-3-2. 4-2 loss v Groningen , 0-3 win over De Graafschap, 5-2 loss to Twente.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLWLLW - 4 of last 6 over 2.5 goals. All away over 2.5 goals, scoring 2 or more.

GOAL TRENDS - as above.

STREAKS - 6 without a draw. no draw away from home, all 3 overs away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - goals congruency immediately apparent both with head to heads and recent performances , suggests Feyenoord could score 2 again? Ding dong battles for ADO away from home could help over 2.5 goals.

130pm -
Twente v Excelsior - 1.13 home
HEAD TO HEADS
20.03.2011 D1 SBV Excelsior 0-2 FC Twente
06.11.2010 D1 FC Twente 2-1 SBV Excelsior
Nothing really to suggest the carnage of a 1.13 quote.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 18th after 7 matches.

HOME TEAM - Twente

RECENT HOME FORM - WWW scoring 2-4-5

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWLWD - loss 2-1 v Roda saw Twente score first and 1-1 v Ajax not totally unexpected.

GOAL TRENDS - 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Last 2 home matches over 4.5 goals. Have scored in all matches this season and conceded in all of last 5.

STREAKS - 3 match home winning streak.

AWAY TEAM - -Excelsior

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLL - 2-0, 6-1 to PSV and 2-0. I suppose we an equate PSV with Twente and now we learn why 1.13 as those odds do indicate easily 3/4 or more scored.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLLL conceding 2-2-1-6-3-2-2 - have failed to score in 4 of 7 this season.

GOAL TRENDS - only 2 matches over 2.5 goals - why? well 4 scores were 2-0 losses. Have conceded in all matches this season.

STREAKS - 3 match away losing streak, 4 overall losing streak.7 without a win away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - always a chance that twente could win 2-0 and scupper a goals trade. The loss 6-1 to PSV is a hint , as is the 1.13, of the ideal that Twente should accomplish in this match. Speculators can really go for over 4.5, 5.5 goals and hope this is not a 2-0!

3pm -
Fulham v QPR - 2.04 home - about as readable as an Alan "Tit"marsh novel.
HEAD TO HEADS - no recent head to heads and it must be said this is a London derby with a QPR side who have spent on new players.

LEAGUE POSITION - 18th v 9th after 6 matches.

HOME TEAM - Fulham

RECENT HOME FORM - DDD - last 2 draws score draws saw Fulham come from behind against Blackburn and Man City.

RECENT FORM OVERALL DLLDDD - you would expect them to have targeted a Premiership newcomer as an incentive to end this sequence without winning. Fulham have largely played the " mid table mediocrity" teams bar Man City of course.

GOAL TRENDS - only 2 over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - no win in 6. 3 match drawing streak at home, last 3 matches overall all drawn.

AWAY TEAM - QPR

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDW - as if to emphasise the difference new signings can have, all 3 goals against Wolves scored by new signings. Wins against Everton and wolves, loss to Wigan.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLDWD - decent draws against Newcastle and Villa and win away at Wolves.

GOAL TRENDS - only 2 matches over 2.5 goals all season. Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 and only conceded a 58th minute penalty v Villa.

STREAKS - 3 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - London derby and so , for me, a case of best team on the day wins rather than an over reliance on form.
Both teams have negative over 2.5 goals stats. Fulham must end their 3 match draw sequence at home soon. QPR, post transfer, seem to have placed an emphasis on defense. Only one goal, a penalty, in last 3 matches, conceded. I would opt for unders and lay the draw in anticipation of Fulham breaking the draw sequence. but would probably not play this match as it is a derby.

3pm -
Swansea v Stoke - 2.72 home
HEAD TO HEADS - no recent relevant head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - 16th v 8th and due deference to Swansea in the market.

HOME TEAM - Swansea

RECENT HOME FORM - DDW - 2 0-0's and a 3-0 win over West Brom. Played Wigan, Sunderland and West Brom , all Championship style sides, as are Stoke.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDDLWL - losses against Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal away. And ended their goalless hoodoo in 2 consecutive games.

GOAL TRENDS - last 2 matches over 2.5 goals. Unbeaten at home. 2 matches on the trot scoring.

STREAKS - Swansea have not conceded at home in 3.

AWAY TEAM - Stoke

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWL - I must admit the 4-0 loss v Sunderland was unexpected by me. A sign that post transfer matches can surprise. Away from home, Stoke have scored 2 90 minute goals and none against Sunderland. Trouble scoring away from home?

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWWLD - only 1 match over 2.5 goals is typically Stoke-ish. Stoke look to be trying to mug teams 1-0 and it has worked against West Brom and Liverpool.

GOAL TRENDS - only 1 over 2.5 goals. Stoke have not scored more than 1 goal in a match this season.

STREAKS - no draw in 2 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the market likes Swansea at home. They have not conceded at home and are playing a Stoke side who like to try and win 1-0 and consequently all matches are generally under 2.5 goals.
Will this under 2.5 goals continue, or is the fact that Swansea are now scoring a sign of more goals?

330pm -
NEC Nijmegen v PSV - 1.48 away
HEAD TO HEADS
13.03.2011 D1 NEC Nijmegen 2-2 PSV Eindhoven
11.09.2010 D1 PSV Eindhoven 3-1 NEC Nijmegen
22.01.2010 D1 PSV Eindhoven 3-0 NEC Nijmegen
25.10.2009 D1 NEC Nijmegen 0-4 PSV Eindhoven
03.05.2009 D1 PSV Eindhoven 1-1 NEC Nijmegen
PSV have scored 4-3-3-2 in their last 4 head to heads making the 1.48 a nice price if this continues.PSV were leading 1-2 until the 90th minute last time out.
LEAGUE POSITION - 15th v 4th after 7 matches - if PSV win they go provisionally 2nd.

HOME TEAM - NEC

RECENT HOME FORM - WWL - 2-0 v Excelsior and 2-1 v Heracles saw NEC 2-0 up. 1-2 loss v NAC saw NEC score first, so they have scored first in all 3 home matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWLWLLL - the only side NEC has played who are comparable with PSV are AZ who beat NEC 4-0 at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 2-0 scorelines stop the general goal trend from being comprehensively over 2.5 goals. In those 2-0 matches the goals have come too late for over 2.5 goals trades to have been successful.

STREAKS - 3 match losing streak.Have conceded in last 5 matches. No draw in 6 matches.

AWAY TEAM - PSV

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWD - lost 3-1 to AZ, beat ADO 0-3 and drew 3-3 v VVV when 0-2 up .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWWDDW - draws were 2-2 and 3-3

GOAL TRENDS - last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. 6 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored in all matches this season and conceded in last 4 . PSV have scored 3-6-3-2-7 in their last 5 matches so are consistently scoring, and scoring well.

STREAKS - unbeaten in 6 matches.Have scored in last 7 and conceded in last 4.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - a couple of 2-0's for NEC have stopped their goal trend from being comprehensively overs, but PSV's definitely is.
PSV have scored first in their last 6 matches and NEC have scored first in all home matches. So toss of a coin really who will score first. At any rate, if NEC score first, enhanced bettors get stuck in because PSV's volume of goals is impressive. I expect an eventual PSV win if the 4-0 AZ v NEC scoreline is a reflection of NEC's abilities against the better sides.

4pm -
Tottenham v Arsenal - -2.2 home - another LANDAN derby and , as with the merseyside derby, I see these as tough to trade matches because it is generally the best team on the day rather than a match which reflects current form.
HEAD TO HEADS
20.04.2011 PR Tottenham 3-3 Arsenal FC
20.11.2010 PR Arsenal FC 2-3 Tottenham
21.09.2010 LC Tottenham 1-4 AET Arsenal FC
14.04.2010 PR Tottenham 2-1 Arsenal FC
31.10.2009 PR Arsenal FC 3-0 Tottenham
08.02.2009 PR Tottenham 0-0 Arsenal FC
League trend towards over 2.5 goals in last 4 head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 13th

HOME TEAM - SPUDS

RECENT HOME FORM - 1-5 loss toman City and 4-0 win over Liverpool.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWW - no draw so far this season.3 match winning streak against Wolves, Wigan away and Liverpool at home.

GOAL TRENDS - all matches bar the Wolves match over 2.5 goals. 0-2 the Wolves match and the goals too late for successful over 2.5 goals trade. Have scored in all of last 4. Have scored 1-2-4-2 in last 4 matches

STREAKS - 3 match winning streak, 5 without a draw.Have scored in all of last 4.All matches over 1.5 goals.

AWAY TEAM - ARSE

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLL - 0-0 v Newcastle, 8-2 v Man Utd and 4-3 v Blackburn.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLWLW - have conceded 2-8-4 in the losses and clean sheets in the 2 home wins.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. HAve kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches.Have scored 2-1-3-3 in last 4 matches.

STREAKS - no win in 3 away, no draw in last 5, have scored in last 4.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads point to consistent over 2.5 goals. Recent results for both sides point to over 2.5 goals. This is a one off match where the best team on the day will win.
From www.premierleague.com
Spurs team news

Manager Harry Redknapp will revert to his first-choice line-up for Sunday's north London derby, meaning Emmanuel Adebayor is in line to face his former club Arsenal at White Hart Lane.

Redknapp, who made 10 changes to his team for the Europa League win over Shamrock Rovers, will give Aaron Lennon a fitness test after he had to come off with a stiff groin last night.

William Gallas (calf), Michael Dawson (Achilles) and Tom Huddlestone (ankle) are out but Steven Pienaar is available to play his first game of the season after overcoming a groin problem.

Arsenal team news

Arsenal will give late fitness tests to Theo Walcott (knee) and Gervinho (hamstring) before the game but central defender Laurent Koscielny (ankle) is out.

Johan Djourou (hamstring) also remains out but Yossi Benayoun (thigh) and Sebastien Squillaci both return to the squad after training this weekend.

Midfielders Jack Wilshere and Abou Diaby plus defender Thomas Vermaelen continue their rehabilitation from ankle injuries.

squads

Tottenham Hotspur: Gomes, Friedel, Cudicini, Bale, Kaboul, Bassong, Corluka, Walker, King, Assou-Ekotto, Rose, Parker, Modric, Livermore, Townsend, Carroll, Lennon, Kranjcar, Rose, Falque, Sandro, Pienaar, Pavlyuchenko, Defoe, Dos Santos, Adebayor, Van der Vaart.

Arsenal: Szczesny, Sagna, Gibbs, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Song, Andre Santos, Frimpong, Arteta, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ramsey, Arshavin, Gervinho, Benayoun, Squillaci, Chamakh, Walcott, van Persie, Fabianski, Park, Jenkinson, Coquelin.


5pm -
FC Copenhagen v AGF - 1.48 home
HEAD TO HEADS
28.03.2010 D1 AGF Aarhus 0-0 FC København
07.03.2010 D1 FC København 5-0 AGF Aarhus
15.08.2009 D1 FC København 0-1 AGF Aarhus
19.04.2009 D1 AGF Aarhus 1-0 FC København
AGF have been tough to beat in recent head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 2nd but Copenhagen 10 points ahead.

HOME TEAM - Copenhagen

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWW - have scored 2 in each home match with 3 clean sheets .

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWWWWWWWW - draw was 2-2.

GOAL TRENDS - have scored 2 or more goals in 8 matches this season. 4 2-0's and 2 1-0 wins make this a bad over 2.5 goal team -because they are so good defensively. Have kept 4 clean sheets in the last 6. Have scored in all matches this season. Average 2 scored and 0.6 conceded in all matches.

STREAKS - unbeaten in 10, have scored in all 10 matches and scored 2 or more in 8 matches.No draw in 8.Current winning streak of 8.

AWAY TEAM - AGF

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDWW - 2-1 loss v AAb, and 3-1 loss v Sonder.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLDLDDWWWW - Beat 3rd, 4th, 5th and lost to 6th. Although they are 2nd they are 10 points away from top side Copenhagen.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 4 of last 5 matches. Have scored in 9 of last 10 matches.

STREAKS - no defeat in 6, have scored in last 5 aways. No goal conceded in 4 of last 5.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - This is 1st v 2nd - 1st on 28 points and 2nd on 18 points. Dominance in the league from Copenhagen. Are AGF going to be stern opponents? They have kept a clean sheet in 4 of last 5 matches. Could be a tougher test for Copenhagen than they are used to. 0-0 cover could be employed today incase AGF continue their clean sheet streak. Can Copenhagen score 2 again?

7pm -
Gijon v Barcelona - 1.17 away
HEAD TO HEADS
12.02.2011 D1 Sporting Gijón 1-1 FC Barcelona
22.09.2010 D1 FC Barcelona 1-0 Sporting Gijón
30.01.2010 D1 Sporting Gijón 0-1 FC Barcelona
31.08.2009 D1 FC Barcelona 3-0 Sporting Gijón
08.02.2009 D1 FC Barcelona 3-1 Sporting Gijón
Tough bar stewards to play against as characterised by last 3 head to heads. But is this new Barca side a lot different. They have upped the ante from a goal scoring perspective, enough to break the 2 goal barrier against Gijon. 1.17 suggests so, but head to heads do not.
LEAGUE POSITION - 20th v 2nd after 5 matches.

HOME TEAM - Gijon

RECENT HOME FORM - LLD - loss was 1-2 v Sociedad, 0-1 v valencia and 0-0 draw vRacing.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLD - no win this season.Have lost to Valencia and Real Madrid.

GOAL TRENDS - failed to score in last 3 matches. Danger scoreline is thus a 0-0 if the defensive Sporting turn up.Have conceded in all bar the last match. Opponents score first in 80% of matches

STREAKS - no win this season.failed to score in 3,

AWAY TEAM - Barca

RECENT AWAY FORM - DD against Sociedad and Valencia both 2-2. 0-2 up against Sociedad and came from 1-0 down to lead 2-1 before succumbing to a draw.

RECENT OVERALL FORM- WDWDW - all matches over 3.5 goals.Barca have scored in all and kept a clean sheet in all home matches

GOAL TRENDS - all matches over 3.5 goals. Both away matches 2-2 draws.

STREAKS - unbeaten this season. All draws away

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the last time Barca were 1.17, they won 0-5 away in the Champions League. They are playing pain in the arses Gijon though who have restricted them to a single goal in last 3 matches. Draw sequence away must end for Barca. I see a win but 0-0 is the killer scoreline if the ultra defensive Sporting turn up ( hint against Valencia 0-1 and last match 0-0 v Racing.
THis is a new Barca side from the one playing previously. So decide - another over 3.5 goals or chance another Gijon head to head shut out? THe market price indicates the former.

815pm -
Academica v Porto - 1.42 away
HEAD TO HEADS
20.03.2011 D1 FC Porto 3-1 Académica Coimbra
30.10.2010 D1 Académica Coimbra 0-1 FC Porto
13.03.2010 D1 Académica Coimbra 1-2 FC Porto
10.02.2010 LC FC Porto 1-0 Académica Coimbra
13.01.2010 LC Académica Coimbra 0-0 FC Porto
25.10.2009 D1 FC Porto 3-2 Académica Coimbra
clean sweep by Porto in all league head to heads. Tight 2 matches away 1-2 and 0-1
LEAGUE POSITION 5th v 1st after 6 matches.

HOME TEAM - Academica

RECENT HOME FORM - WWW 1-0 v Rio Ave, 4-0 v Nacional and 4-0 v Feirense.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWLW - importantly one of the losses was 4-1 v Benfica away and Benfica and Porto I would side together.

GOAL TRENDS - all clean sheets at home and remember the tight matches when Porto play at Academica.Last 3 matches over 3.5 goals. Academica have scored in all bar 1 match this season.

STREAKS - no draw this season. Yet to concede at home. 3 match home winning streak.

AWAY TEAM - Porto

RECENT AWAY FORM - -WWD - 0-1 v Guimaraes, 2-5 v Uniaio, and 0-0 v Feirense ( not unexpected as Feirense had built up a sequence of 0-0's at home)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWDD - draw v Feirense and Benfica not unexpected.

GOAL TRENDS - 2/3 away matches under 1.5 goals. But 4 of last 5 overall over 2.5 goals.HAve kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3.

STREAKS - unbeaten this season - 2 match drawing streak.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - is this going to be tougher for Porto than the odds suggest. I would not bet against them when favs, but the head to heads (1-2 and 0-1) and the fact Academica have won all 3 at home without conceding and help us construct an argument for under 2.5 goals trading initially.
But then we get the crash bang wallop of Benfica's 4-1 win against Academica., and Benfica and Porto are closely matched.



No comments: