Wednesday 26 October 2011

26/10

215pm - Naesby v Silkeborg - 1.22 away - Danish Cup likely to be illiquid. D3W v Division 1.
3pm -
Red Bull Salzburg v LASK Linz - 1.22 home
09.04.2011 D1 RB Salzburg 0-1 LASK Linz
03.04.2011 D1 LASK Linz 1-1 RB Salzburg
27.11.2010 D1 LASK Linz 1-2 RB Salzburg
11.09.2010 D1 RB Salzburg 0-0 LASK Linz
18.04.2010 D1 LASK Linz 0-0 RB Salzburg
21.02.2010 D1 RB Salzburg 3-0 LASK Linz
This is the Austrian Cup, these head to heads are league head to heads, but interesting to note that RB have not scored at home in last 2 against Linz!!
Why the 1.22 today? Very tight last 5 head to heads ( and again I acknowledge these are league head to heads)
The trend continues - no draw in all Red Bull's cup games.
Have only played 3 cup games at home, losing 2 and winning one. All 3 matches punctuated by over 2.5 goals with 2 matches over 4.5 goals!!
16 matches in the Cup for Linz, all without a draw bar one.WWWLWWLWW latest but not sure if some of those matches against weaker opponents.

430pm - Honka v Jaro - 1.32 home
430pm -
RoPS v HJK Helsinki - 1.35 away
5pm -
Hajduk Split v Karlovac - 1.23 home - Croatian Cup match
02.10.2011 D1 NK Karlovac 1-1 Hajduk Split
16.04.2011 D1 Hajduk Split 2-3 NK Karlovac
03.10.2010 D1 NK Karlovac 1-1 Hajduk Split
24.04.2010 D1 Hajduk Split 1-0 NK Karlovac
24.10.2009 D1 NK Karlovac 1-0 Hajduk Split
Both teams from the same league and against tight head to heads do not reflect apparent market confidence in home side.
6pm -
Karlsruhe v Schalke - 1.47 away - Division 2 v Division 1 in this German Cup match.
Schalke have successfully won 14 of last 16 Cup matches ( some after 90 minutes) , their 2 losses only 1-0's.
Schalke have kept clean sheets in 8 of their last 10 away cup matches.
Karlsruher have kept 4 clean sheets in last 5 away but questionable opposition.
6pm -
Rosenborg v Fredrikstad - 1.39 home
HEAD TO HEADS
18.04.2011 D1 Fredrikstad FK 2-0 Rosenborg BK
21.08.2009 D1 Fredrikstad FK 1-4 Rosenborg BK
03.05.2009 D1 Rosenborg BK 1-0 Fredrikstad FK
05.02.2009 CF Rosenborg BK 1-0 Fredrikstad FK
Fred won the only recent head to head away but the market expects some redress today.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 14th - a win takes Rosenborg 2nd . Fred have generally played 2 fewer games than opponents.

HOME TEAM - Rosenborg

RECENT HOME FORM - LDWLWWWWWWWD - recent draw a 2-2 v 10th. Have beaten 13th, 15th and 16th at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLDWDWWWWLWDL - recent losses have been away to 3rd, 7th and 9th.Have already lost 0-2 to Fred away this season - that was part of a LLDL first 4 matches of the season.

GOAL TRENDS - 9 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals. 75% overs at home. Score an average 2.83 at home. Have only failed to score in 3 away and 1 at home all season. Have conceded in all of last 6. 7 of last 8 home matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 8 without defeat at home. Have scored in the last 8 at home and conceded in last 6 overall.

AWAY TEAM - Fred

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLLLLWLLLWL - no draw away yet. Have lost to 1st and 2nd away and not played 3rd or 4th yet.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWLLLDLLWDL - mixed bag overall. Have lost home and away to 1st and 2nd and beaten 3rd, 4th, 5th at home and 5th home and away. How will they fare away to 3rd and 4th?

GOAL TRENDS -last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 4 of last 5 overs. Last 4 away matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 12 away without a draw. Have conceded in all of last 11 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the lack of a draw for Fred away could relay away tactics? It is the most compelling stat in this match. The head to head loss latest was part of a LLDL at the start of the season. I feel this is not a true showing by Rosenborg. Over 2.5 goals is congruous, albeit a short trend for Fred.


6pm -
Rot-Weiss Essen v H Berlin - 1.41 away
630pm -
Galatasaray v Gaziantepspor - 1.42 home
630pm -
Trabzonspor v Antalyaspor - 1.51 home
7pm -
Heracles v Berkum - 1.05 home - dutch cup load up on goals if you want to play?
7pm -
PSV v FC Lisse - 1.03 home - as above.
7pm -
Twente v Genemuiden - 1.03 home - as above. Such short odds are worth laying surely. It will cost you £3 to win a possible £100. Highly unlikely to come in but hey this is the excitement of the , erm, Dutch Cup.
715pm -
Hibernian v Celtic - 1.53 away - Scottish Cup quarter final so business end means likely both sides will take this very seriously. Knee jerk? Given this is a quarter final, surely Celtic look opposable in current form at 1.53?
Only 2 losses in last 8 for Hibs, both 1-0 losses and one to Rangers, so a shot across the bow for Celtic surely.
8 of last 9 Hibs home matches over 2.5 goals , in fact 7 matches over 3.5 goals ( reason may have been weaker opposition in Cup matches?)
Celtic have drawn 3 of their last 5 on all competitions, 1 loss and a sole win at home v Aberdeen. Ideal time for Hibs to meet them!!
Celtic's losses in this competition have been against Rangers twice, Hearts twice ( historically top 3) and Falkirk in all Cup matches they have played. Celtic have won their last 8 Cup matches away from home.
This may not be another draw for Celtic. The fact they have generally only lost to 2 of the top 3 SPL teams in the Cup means they are favoured today, but only 1 win in last 5 signals some vulnerability.
730pm -
Anderlecht v Rupel Boom - 1.07 home - Belgian Cup match
730pm -
B Munich v Ingolstadt - 1.07 home - 12 match clean sheet run ended by NApoli and Hannover.
Only 3 losses since 2004 for Bayern in this competition ( includes extra time for the wins) augurs well . Home again and likely, with a reasonable team, to turn the 1.07 into 5+ goals.
Ingolstadt are Bundesliga 2 and have lost 7 of last 11 matches conceding 4-1-3-1-4-2-4-5-3-3.
In the cup , the only Bundesliga side they have played away was Hamburg, who won 1-0 in 2010 care of a 2nd half goal. A good BAyern team will really boost confidence re the usual goals that should go with 1.07's/
730pm -
Stuttgart v FSV Frankfurt - 1.24 home
745pm -
AC Milan v Parma - 1.37 home
745pm -
Stoke v Liverpool - 2.2 away
745pm -
Wolves v Man City - 1.49 away
750pm -
Lille v Sedan - 1.46 home
9pm -
Real Madrid v Villarreal - 1.14 home - with Higuan devastating of late and Ronaldo chipping in with a few, no wonder Real are so short at present.
HEAD TO HEADS
15.05.2011 D1 Villarreal CF 1-3 Real Madrid
09.01.2011 D1 Real Madrid 4-2 Villarreal CF
21.02.2010 D1 Real Madrid 6-2 Villarreal CF
23.09.2009 D1 Villarreal CF 0-2 Real Madrid
16.05.2009 D1 Villarreal CF 3-2 Real Madrid
goals galore and as I said above , with Higuan and Ronaldo firing, this should continue as reflected in head to heads and the 1.14 quote.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 16th after 8 games. A win take Real top , 1 point ahead of Barca.

HOME TEAM - real

RECENT HOME FORM -WWW socring 4-6-4

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLDWWWW - LD away from home from 2 tough away matches.Bar those 2 matches, Real have scored 6-4-6-4-4-4.

GOAL TRENDS - 6-8-5 total goals at home very reflective of a 1.14 quote. 6-6-1-0-8-4-5-4 scored in matches this season.Real have conceded in all home matches which helps the overs trades.

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS


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